Lessons for Democratic Transition in the Arab World

Democracy and Economic Development

ERF 21st Annual Conference

Gammarth, TunisiaMarch 20-22, 2015

Lessons for Democratic Transition in the Arab World

Eva Bellin, Brandeis University, USA

Third Wave:About 90 countries have transitioned to democracy (1974-present)

Lessons: Factors that shape chances of democratization:• Economic development• Neighborhood• Professionalized Military• Robust Civil Society• Etc., etc., etc.

Limited Utility of Analysis:

• Factors are beyond control of policy maker• Factors are not deterministic

Radical Indeterminancy of Democratic Transition

Possibility of Choice!

Single Requisite Factor:

Presence of credible political elites/ “powerful players”

who are committed to democratization

Evidence from Paired Comparison of Egypt and Tunisia

Pivotal Role of Abbassi

GhannouchiMorsi

at critical junctures

Unique (?) Obstacles to Democratic Transitionin the Arab World

Overrated Obstacles:

1. Culture? (illiberal/ non-democratic)

• Cultural shift (historically) not a necessary pre condition for democratization

2. Religion?

• Religious accommodation is not inconsistent with democracy (e.g. Indonesia, Malaysia, EU countries)

3. Military?

• Many models of accommodation

Real obstacles?

• Gas and Oil Wealth• Security Threat/Climate of Fear

How to move forward & prevent backsliding?

1. Build Institutions of Accountability

• Electoral Commisions• Political Parties• Effective Judiciaries• Free Media• Public Audit Agencies

2. Cultivate Civil Society

• Watchdog function• Build dialogue and trust

3. Empower the people

• Harness popular self-interest to give institutional reforms roots

Mega Lesson of Third Wave

• The POSSIBLITY of transition in all terrain

Door is not closed on democratization in the Arab

world

Democracy and Economic Development

ERF 21st Annual Conference

Gammarth, TunisiaMarch 20-22, 2015