Lessons 3,8,9,10,12,13 Terrorism, Fp, Policy, Strategy, Stagesetter Doherty 8 Sep 09

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AS4100Lessons 10,9,8,12,13,3

Setting the World Stage

Intro to Cultural Studies

Terrorism & Force Protection

U.S. Policy

Making Strategy

Security CBTLt Col Wayne Doherty

8 Sep 09

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Prep for This Class Prepare for Lessons:

3, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13• “Skim” the Security CBT for Lesson 3.

• 8, 9, 10 – Split up

• 12 & 13 – Split up

• Each Cadet responsible for 2 lessons and will lead discussions along with Lt Col Doherty

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Overview

Stage Setter VIDEO Lessons 10, 9, & 8 discussion

BREAK – GROUP EXERCISE PREP

Execute GROUP EXERCISE Lessons 12, 13 and 3 discussion AF Topic of Your Choice Assignments (Talking Paper/Presentations)

Your World is Changing!

Threats

Challenges

Opportunities

The fundamental need for increased regional, language, and cultural studies training for USAF officers and cadets

The 20th Century

Three competing ideologies• Communism• Fascism• Democracy

Democracy alone remains as the predominant ideology…

… But extremism, uncertainty, and violence still flourish!

Transnational Issues

- Globalization

- North vs South

- Global War on Terror (GWOT) – OCO

The World Stage

- Religious and Ethnic Factors

-- Religious Conflicts

-- Ethnic Conflicts

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Holm Center Goals for Regional Studies/Cultural

Awareness

- Exposure to cultures of world regions

- Familiarize with issues and challenges

- American interests in various regions

- Encourage career-long / life-long study

Any other Lesson 9 Comments???

The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.

- Thomas Jefferson

Khobar Towers Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, 1996

Terrorism&

Force Protection

Joint Pub. 3-07.2“What is Terrorism?”

The calculated use of violence or threat of

violence to inculcate fear; intended to coerce or

to intimidate governments or societies in pursuit

of goals that are generally political, religious or

idealogical. —Joint Publication 3-07.2, Joint Tactics,

Techniques, and Procedures for Antiterrorism

Historical Overview Terror in Antiquity: 1st to 14th

Century• Zealots of Judea• The Assassins

14th to 18th Century• French Revolution

Modern Era: The 19th Century• Anarchists• Nationalism

The 20th Century • Irish and Macedonians• World Wars• Cold War

Current state of terrorism

Recent History

https://atlevel1.dtic.mil/at/atl1/domestic/historical2/index.html

“OPEN HYPERLINK ABOVE”

Since 1990s, religious fundamentalism emerged as primary force for terror

Weapons proliferation narrowed the gap between the firepower of the state and dissidents

Recent History

Radical Shiite Muqtada al-Sadr

Violence

Political goal

Psychological impact and fear

Targeting of non-combatants

Key Criteria“We have the right to kill four million Americans- two million of them children…”Suleiman abu Ghaith, al Qaeda spokesman

Guerilla v. Terrorism

Targets Mostly military, police, or political

opponents

State symbols, political opponents,

and the public at large

Intended Impact

Mainly physical attrition of the

enemy

Psychological coercion

Tactics Commando-type operations

Specialized tactics: kidnapping, car

bombs, hijacking, etc.

International Legality

Yes, if follow rules of armed conduct

No

Guerilla Terrorism

Typologies of Terrorism Political: Force governments to

change structure or policies, or

to achieve radical societal

change

Religious: Objectives/actions

divinely guided; often tied to

ethnic and nationalist identities

Social: “Special interest” (i.e.,

animal rights)

2004: Train bombings in Spain; Al Qaeda claims responsibility

Objectives of Terrorism

Attract attention for cause Demonstrate group’s power Show govt’s lack of power Exact revenge Obtain logistical support Cause a govt to overreact

Tactics

Assassination Arson Bombing Hostage taking Kidnapping Hijacking

Seizures

Raids

Sabotage

Threat or

Hoax

Use of WMD

“Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties.” (National Intelligence Council)

22%

3%

8%

1%

56%

1%

7% 2%

Source: MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base, CAO 6 Dec 06

Common Terrorist Tactics

(Jan 1968 – Dec 2006)

Terror Incidents by Tactic

22%

3%

8%

1%

56%

1%

7% 2%

Armed attack

Arson

Assassination

Barricade/hostage

Bombing

Hijacking

Kidnapping

Unconventional/ Other/Unk

In 2005, the 10 most lethal attacks were conducted by radical Islamic extremist suicide bombers.

Improvised explosive device (IED) is the terrorist’s weapon of choice:

Inexpensive to produce Detonation techniques Low risk to the perpetrator Placement/concealment High attention-getting

capacity

Tactics

Asymmetric warfare: A new kind of enemy, a new kind of war…

Symmetric warfare poses too great a risk Asymmetric tactics - a hit and run approach on

soft targets - can affect foreign policy• Oct 1993: Battle of Mogadishu led to

US pullout of Somalia, failure to engage in Rwanda, and heavy reliance on airpower in Balkans

Asymmetry

First articulated by the Reagan Admin. and reaffirmed by every president since:• No concessions to terrorists• Terrorists treated as criminals;

rule of law applies• Maximum pressure placed on

state sponsors

US Terror Policy

Clinton administration added corollary: US will aid other governments’ counter-terrorism efforts

“On September the 11th, enemies of freedom committed an act of war against our country… Either you are with us or

you are with the terrorists. 

From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a

hostile regime.”— President George W. Bush, 20 Sep 01

Dept. of Homeland Security established: Third largest cabinet department after DoD and VA

Incorporates existing agencies, including US Coast Guard, Secret Service, and CIS

Coordinates capabilities of 22+ agencies to:• Secure borders, transportation, critical infrastructure• Synthesize/analyze homeland security intelligence• Spearheads domestic counter-terrorism efforts

US Policy Post 9/11

US Military Policy Guiding principles:

• US forces will continue to engage• Force protection will be a major

consideration DoD addresses terrorism from two

distinct perspectives:• Counter-terrorism (offensive)• Anti-terrorism (defensive)

Intelligence critical component for success

Force Protection Force Protection: An integrated

application of offensive/defensive actions that deter, detect, preempt, mitigate, or negate threats against or hazards to Air Force air and space operations and assets, based on an acceptable level of risk (JP 1-02) • Relocation of deployed forces out of

heavily populated areas to an isolated base

• Deployment of floating barriers around warships in high-risk areas

“Asymmetric challenges can arise across the spectrum of conflict thatwill confront US forces in a theater of operations or on US soil.”

(National Intelligence Council)

Future of Terrorism

Terrorism is a dynamic enemy… and is adapting to the challenges posed by developing societies

Groups like Al Qaeda and Hezbollah benefit from and are exploiting globalization, even as they fight against it

Terrorism is becoming more network based, encouraging loosely organized, self-financed organizational structure

Future of Terrorism

International or transnational cooperation among terrorist groups is becoming the norm

WMD proliferation amplifies the danger of broad, network-based terrorism.

Terrorists increasingly display a willingness to use catastrophic violence to cause mass casualties and destruction

C204-28

EXERCISE: Tie Together FP/Terrorism/Policy/Strategy/& Security

C204-29

What was the Significance of the Speech?

Policy Influences Foreign Policy 1776 - 1950

Isolationism thru Containment Deterrent Strategies 1950-89

Massive Retaliation thru Contemporary Containment

Foreign Policies (1989 - ?) Post Containment Era Preemptive Strike Era

U.S. Foreign Policy

The goals and guidelines that shape the conduct of American relations with other nations.

Policy Influences

The Executive Branch

The President

The State Department

The National Security Council (NSC)

The National Security Advisor (NSA)

Policy Influences

The Legislative Branch

Congress can: Declare war Raise and maintain the military Power of the purse Treaty ratification Presidential appointees

Policy Influences The American People

Public opinion Uninformed public Informed public Effective public

Interest groups The press

Foreign Policies

Isolationism Imperialism Pacifism UN Cooperation Containment

Deterrent Strategies

Post-Containment Era

U.S. had to stop Soviet expansion Marshall Plan (1947) Berlin Airlift (1948) North Atlantic Treaty Organization (1949)

Significantly rebuilt Europe Countries able to resist communist expansion

Korea Third World nation stalemated us! Altered U.S. foreign policy…….

Containment

Massive Retaliation Focus on technological and strategic superiority Use nuclear weapons “at a time & place of our

choosing” Launch of Sputnik and ICBM in 1957

America shocked America’s age of innocence was over America changed its deterrent policy once again...

Soviet military capabilities Expanded alliances in Pacific region

ANZUS Pact (1951) Japan (1954)

Tactical nuclear weapons Countered being outnumbered conventionally Main reason USSR kept in check?

Support SE Asia from communism domino theory

Graduated Response

…Graduated Response still relied heavily on nukes

Respond to any level of conflict…

Restructure conventional forces Green Berets and Dual Basing

Reconstruct airlift and sealift

Mutually Assured Destruction No one wins...

Flexible Response

Then comes Vietnam…

Essential Equivalence basic nuclear strategy Soviet nukes bigger and outnumbered ours, but ours

more accurate

Total Force concept to policy Active duty, National Guard, Reserves

Trained nations to fight, loans, foreign aid No Troops

Realistic Deterrence /Nixon Doctrine

Watergate…President Carter…Iranian Hostage Crises

More outspoken about dislike of

communists and USSR…“Evil Empire” Military rebuilt

Increased pay raises New weapon systems

Security Assistance Programs increased Third World help…stop communist assistance

Allies shouldered more responsibility for

own defense

Contemporary Containment/ Reagan Doctrine (1981)

End of cold war…

World started to change in 1989…

Warsaw Pact crumbling Berlin Wall coming down Countries asserting independence from USSR…….

…leads us to today

Post Containment Era / A Strategy of Engagement

To enhance America’s security To bolster America’s economic prosperity To promote democracy and human rights

abroad (Theater Engagement Plans)

President Bush’s “Pre-emptive Strike Doctrine” Signals a new focus by the U.S. on security

“Our Nation’s cause has always been larger than our Nation’s defense. We fight, as we always fight, for a just peace—a peace that favors liberty. We will defend the peace against the threats from terrorists and tyrants. We will preserve the peace by building good relations among the great powers. And we will extend the peace by encouraging free and open societies on every continent.”

President BushWest Point, New YorkJune 1, 2002

Where are we headed in the 21st century?

This is not…just America's fight. And what is at stake is not just America's freedom. This is the world's fight. This is civilization's fight. This is the fight of all who believe in progress and pluralism, tolerance and freedom.

President George W. Bush

Sept 2001

- Ordered the closure of the prison at Guantanamo Bay and a review of our detention and interrogation policy, prohibited the use of torture.

- Appointed Special Envoys for Climate Change, Southwest Asia, the Middle East, Sudan, and a Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

- Announced a plan to responsibly end the War in Iraq.- Announced a new strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan.- Announced a strategy to address the international nuclear threat.

- Agreed to negotiation of Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty w/ Russia.

- Established a new "U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue".

- Announced new policy steps towards Cuba.

President Obama - Aug 2009

Definitions Doctrine National Objectives Grand Strategy Military Strategy Operational Strategy Battlefield Strategy Influences on the Strategy Process

Transition to Strategy

Policy is guidance that is directive or instructive, stating what is to be

accomplished . Mutable and changes

Objectives and rules of engagement

Policy

The art and science of coordinating the development,

deployment, and employment of military forces to achieve

national security objectives.

Strategy

Doctrine is a statement of officially sanctioned beliefs, warfighting principles, and

terminology that describes and guides the proper use of military forces in support of

national objectives.

How a job should be done Evolves from experience and theory Authoritative, but unlike policy, is not directive

Doctrine

Vital Interest – broad, overriding importance to the survival, safety and vitality of our nation. State is not willing to compromise

on. State is generally willing to go to war

to protect.

National Objectives

National Objectives Major (important) interests - these effect

our national well-being. May use force…not normally necessary.

Peacekeeping Operations Reconnaissance missions in Asia

Peripheral (humanitarian and other) our nation may act because our values demand it.

Response to disasters Human rights violations Environmental protection

National Objectives

Development & use of ALL national power instruments and the coordination of these instruments.

Diplomatic Information Military Economic

Grand Strategy

Strategic Objectives Secure the United States from direct attack. Secure strategic access and retain global freedom of action. Strengthen alliances and partnerships. Establish favorable security conditions.

Current Military Strategy

How We Accomplish Our Objectives Assure allies and friends. Dissuade potential adversaries. Deter aggression and counter coercion. Defeat adversaries.

Current Military Strategy

Operational StrategyThe art and science of planning, orchestrating, and directing military campaigns within a theater of operations to achieve national security objectives. Pg 96

Links the national level concerns of military strategy with battlefield concerns of tactics. Levels of operational strategy

Combined campaigns Joint campaigns Component campaigns

Operational StrategyWhat does it do?

Orchestration of all military efforts in

the theater. Goal is to win the theater war.

Achieve the military objective. Military objective contributes to the

achievement of a political objective.

Operational Strategy

Very dynamic level of operations. Impossible to talk about in general terms.

nuclear war operations other than war conventional war space war information war urban warfare desert war the list goes on......

Battlefield Strategy

National objectives drive the process. Protect/achieve vital national interests.

Grand Strategy incorporates and/or coordinates all the

instruments of national power…not just military. Military Strategy supports national objectives.

Must support higher (Grand) strategy. Operational and Battlefield Strategy must be flexible. Several influences on the strategy process.

Points to Remember…

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“Air Force Security”

COMSECEMSECCOMPUSECOPSEC

Classified vs. Unclassified-Top Secret / Secret / Confidential-FOUO / National Security Related

Process of denying adversaries information about friendly capabilities and intentions

Consists of measures and controls taken to deny unauthorized persons information derived from telecommunications and to ensure the authenticity of such communications

The component of communications security that results from all measures taken to deny unauthorized persons information of value that might be derived from intercept and analysis of compromising emanations from crypto-equipment and telecommunications systems

The primary objective of this program is to protect the privacy, availability, and integrity of systems and the information they process.

MATCH EACH TERM

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“Air ForceTopic of Your

Choice”

Personal Advice – Take Time to Say

Thanks (Promotions/Ceremonies/Going

Aways/Etc.)

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Next Class Prepare for Lesson 11:

International Studies – Africa• Small Groups responsible for 5 minute Briefings• Topics listed on Page 110 of Text (Let’s Split Up)• Corresponding Talking Papers Due as well• Remainder of class split into 3 groups

1. Military Operations in Region2. Department of State Initiatives3. Economic/Other Aid

Blackboard Course Postings• I will post videos and slides BEFORE this class

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Summary

Stage Setter VIDEO Lessons 10, 9, & 8 discussion

BREAK – GROUP EXERCISE PREP

Execute GROUP EXERCISE Lessons 12, 13 and 3 discussion AF Topic of Your Choice Assignments (Talking Paper/Presentations)

Questions?

“We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail.” —President Bush, 20 Sep 01

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Backup Slides

Al Qaeda exemplifies the current manifestation of violent extremists

Al Zawahiri identified “three foundations” of Al Qaeda’s political ideology: Quran-based authority governs Liberation of the homelands Liberation of the human being

So how does this fit into Al Qaeda’s objectives??

Al Qaeda

Al Qaeda’s Plan“We are seeking to incite the Islamic Nation to rise up to liberate its land and to conduct Jihad for the sake of God.” -- Osama bin Laden

Objective 1: Expel American influence from Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula

Objective 2: Remove secular governments within region Objective 3: Eliminate Israel, and purge Jewish and

Christian influence Objective 4: Expand the Muslim empire to historical

significance

“Iraq would serve as the base of a new Islamic caliphate to extend throughout the Middle East, and which would threaten legitimate

governments in Europe, Africa and Asia.” (SecDef Rumsfeld, 2005)

EXERCISE