1 First results and methodological approach to parameter perturbations in GEM-LAM simulations PART II Leo Separovic, Ramon de Elia and Rene Laprise
Leo Separovic, Ramon de Elia and Rene Laprise
Dec 30, 2015
First results and methodological approach to parameter perturbations in GEM-LAM simulations PART II. Leo Separovic, Ramon de Elia and Rene Laprise. Reduction of domain size. Integral. 58. 140x140. 55. 15. 70x92. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
First results and methodological approach to parameter perturbations
in GEM-LAM simulationsPART II
Leo Separovic, Ramon de Elia and Rene Laprise
2
Reduction of domain size
140x140
70x92
100x100
~5500km 30x52
• Integral
• Core only
55 15
58
Core of the small domain and the common region used to compute grid statistics in the following
3
GZ850
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
P -P +
• Statistical significance: RMS (t) over the small-domain core area(-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
4
GZ850
Error
P -P +
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
• Error magnitude: 2xRMS standard deviation of the ensemble average
• Signal magnitude: RMSD between reference and perturbed-parameter ensemble averages; (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
5
90.0
95.0
97.5
99.0
99.5
99.9
99.9
99.5
99.0
97.5
95.0
90.0
GZ850: WKLCL(-), JJAInternal variability
signal
SL
SL
SL
Rejection level for H0
%
6
PCP
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
P -P +
• Statistical significance: RMS (t) over the small-domain core area(-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
7
PCP
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
Error
P -P +
• Error magnitude: 2 x RMS standard deviation of the ensemble average• Signal magnitude: RMSD between reference and perturbed-parameter
ensemble averages; (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
8
90.0
95.0
97.5
99.0
99.5
99.9
99.9
99.5
99.0
97.5
95.0
90.0
PCP: WKLCL(+), JJAInternal variability
signal
SL
SL
SL
Rejection level for H0
%
9
TTscn
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
P -P +
• Statistical significance: RMS (t) over the small-domain core area(-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
10
TTscn
DJF MMA JJA SON DJF MMA JJA SON
Error
P -P +
• Error magnitude: 2 x RMS standard deviation of the ensemble average
• Signal magnitude: RMSD between reference and perturbed-parameter ensemble averages; (-) wklcl=0.020, (+) wklcl=0.048
11
90.0
95.0
97.5
99.0
99.5
99.9
99.9
99.5
99.0
97.5
95.0
90.0
TTscn: WKLCL(-), JJAInternal variability
signal
L
SL
SL
SL
Rejection level for H0
%
12
Future work
• Add an intermediate domain;
• Repeat the study for singleton perturbations of the threshold relative humidity for the onset of precipitation;
• Study synchronous perturbations of the two parameters;
• (Non)linearity of the model response to multiple perturbations and domain size.
Alexandru et al. (2007)
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