Legislatures and Regime Survival: Why Strong Authoritarian Institutions Help Democratization Joseph Wright ∗ [email protected] April 2008 Abstract This paper exa mines how authoritar ian legi slati ve institu tions aff ect regime survival. I argue that authoritarian legislatures and party systems, even when devised to quell threats from au- thori taria n riv als, can influe nce the distri buti on of power in a subsequent democrac y. When legislative institutions and party systems help protect the interests of authoritarian elites in new democ raci es, these instituti ons incr ease the like lihood of democ ratiz ation. Accou nting for se- lection and using a multinomial choice model on a data set of 200 authoritarian regimes in 108 countries from 1950 to 2002, I find that authoritarian legislatures decrease the probability of being replaced by a subsequent authoritarian regimes in all regime types, but increase the prob- ability of democratization in military and single party regimes, and when the dictator does not have access to abundant natural resource rents. ∗ Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance, Princeton University. Prepared for “Dictatorships: Their Gov- ernance and Social Conseque nces” confer ence at Princeton Universi ty , April 25-26, 2008. I wish to thank Barbar a Geddes for helpful comments on an earlier draft, and Michael Ross for sharing data on oil and gas rents.
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