Statistical Downscaling of General Circulation Models to Produce Climate Change Scenarios for Halifax, NS Lee Titus; BSc (physics), Dmet, MSc Candidate (physics) Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Climate Change Section In collaboration with Dr. Richard Greatbatch, Dr. Jinyu Sheng and Dr. Ian Folkins in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Dalhousie University 1
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Lee Titus; BSc (physics), Dmet, MSc Candidate (physics) Environment Canada
Statistical Downscaling of General Circulation Models to Produce Climate Change Scenarios for Halifax, NS. Lee Titus; BSc (physics), Dmet, MSc Candidate (physics) Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Climate Change Section - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Statistical Downscaling of General Circulation Models to Produce Climate Change Scenarios for
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada
Climate Change Section In collaboration with Dr. Richard Greatbatch, Dr. Jinyu Sheng and Dr. Ian Folkins in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Dalhousie University
1
Typical grid spacing in a GCM
4From IPCC 2001
METHOD
• Remove seasonal cycle from predictand/predictors.• Focus on Winter (DJF)• Predictor Selection• Principal component analysis (PCA).• Multiple linear regression on Tmax and NCEP PC’s.• Validation• Use CGCM3 predictors to hindcast historical distribution.• Use future CGCM3 predictors to make projections.
surface meridional windspeed surface vorticity divergence500hpa specific humidity 850hpa specific humidity surface specific humidity surface mean temperature
2122 )( ggg VUU
g
g
U
Varctan
gg Vf
U
PCA/MLR BASICS
YTXXTX 1
PCA
mean sea level pressure -0.17500hpa geopotential height 0.14500hpa zonal windspeed -0.05500hpa meridional windspeed 0.48500hpa vorticity -0.14 ***CORRELATION = 0.62850hpa geopotential height -0.01 40% of the variation in TMAX is 850hpa zonal windspeed -0.08 explained by temperature advection850hpa meridional windspeed 0.58 850hpa vorticity 0.10surface zonal windspeed -0.13surface meridional windspeed 0.52surface vorticity 0.24