chris uggen 1 Lecture 2: Extent and Nature: () S i l i chris uggen – soc 4141 1 (a) Service learning (b) Self-Reports & (c) Victimization (d) Readings “bivariate correlates” of youth crime 1. Age : property peak at 18 (was 16) violent at 19 2. Sex : males are 82% of violent index (was higher); 71% total 3. Race : African-Americans 51% of all violent index – interaction of age, sex, and race: In 2008, African- American males aged 14-24 made up 16% of homicide victims and 27% of offenders. This group is about 1% chris uggen – soc 4141 2 of the population 4. Ethnicity : poor data, but Latino overrepresentation in correctional populations (+immigration paradox) 5. Class : kids from low-income census tracts most arrested 6. Chronics : 6% of male population responsible for 50% of arrests 7. Local trends : fewer violent as percent of total; but percent violent rose until mid-90s, then fell problems with police picture A. Unreported "Dark Figure" of Crime (tip of iceberg) 1. Most youth crime is concealed (e.g. drug use) or unreported (e.g. theft) B. Biases over Time and Space 1. Changing norms (marijuana, prostitution) 2. Changes in police priorities or "crackdowns" 3. Police professionalization as emergent process spring 2004 chris uggen – soc 4141 3 3. Police professionalization as emergent process 4. Local biases, misclassifications 5. Individual biases (implicit and explicit) C. Omissions and Idiosyncracies 1. No information on group offending 2. UCRs stop at arrest stage (cases dropped) 3. If multiple crimes, only most serious is reported 4. No federal crimes in UCR (comparatively minor flaw)
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chris uggen 1
Lecture 2: Extent and Nature:
( ) S i l i
chris uggen – soc 4141 1
(a) Service learning(b) Self-Reports &(c) Victimization
(d) Readings
“bivariate correlates” of youth crime
1. Age: property peak at 18 (was 16) violent at 19 2. Sex: males are 82% of violent index (was higher);
71% total3. Race: African-Americans 51% of all violent index
– interaction of age, sex, and race: In 2008, African-American males aged 14-24 made up 16% of homicide victims and 27% of offenders. This group is about 1%
chris uggen – soc 4141 2
g pof the population
4. Ethnicity: poor data, but Latino overrepresentation in correctional populations (+immigration paradox)
5. Class: kids from low-income census tracts most arrested
6. Chronics: 6% of male population responsible for 50% of arrests
7. Local trends: fewer violent as percent of total; but percent violent rose until mid-90s, then fell
problems with police pictureA. Unreported "Dark Figure" of Crime (tip of iceberg)
1. Most youth crime is concealed (e.g. drug use) or unreported (e.g. theft)
B. Biases over Time and Space1. Changing norms (marijuana, prostitution)2. Changes in police priorities or "crackdowns"3. Police professionalization as emergent process
spring 2004 chris uggen – soc 4141 3
3. Police professionalization as emergent process4. Local biases, misclassifications5. Individual biases (implicit and explicit)
C. Omissions and Idiosyncracies1. No information on group offending2. UCRs stop at arrest stage (cases dropped)3. If multiple crimes, only most serious is reported4. No federal crimes in UCR (comparatively minor flaw)
chris uggen 2
self-reports: a secondpicture of delinquency
• Key Concepts– Prevalence (participation) and – Incidence (frequency)
• “Monitoring the Future”– ~50,000 students in 400 schools each year
chris uggen – soc 4141 4
50,000 students in 400 schools each year since 1975
– drug use, delinquency, and attitudes • Methodology
– sampling and external validity– response bias and internal validity– operationalization
• measuring rape
Self-Reported Use of Gun or Knife to Get Something by Sex (Armed Robbery), 1980-2011
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
nt
chris uggen – soc 4141 5
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Per
cen
Male Female
Self-reported Taking Something Worth over $50 by Sex (Larceny), 1980-2011
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Per
cen
t
chris uggen – soc 4141 6
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
P
Year
Male Female
chris uggen 3
Self-reported Taking Something Worth less than $50 by Sex (Petty Theft), 1980-2011
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Per
cen
t
chris uggen – soc 4141 7
0%
5%
10%
15%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
P
Year
Male Female
Self-Reported Use of Gun or Knife to Get Something by Race (Armed Robbery), 1980-2011
(post-2003?)
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
erce
nt
chris uggen – soc 4141 8
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
P
Year
White African American
Self-reported Taking Something Worth over $50 by Race (Larceny), 1980-2003
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
erce
nt
chris uggen – soc 4141 9
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
P
Year
White African American
chris uggen 4
Self-reported Taking Something Worth less than $50 by Race (Petty Theft), 1980-2011
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Per
cen
t
chris uggen – soc 4141 10
0%
5%
10%
15%
P
Year
White African American
lifetime use: 2012 12th graders
• Alcohol • Cigarettes • Any illicit drug• Marijuana• Any Prescription
69% 40%49%45%21%
chris uggen – soc 4141 11
• Any Prescription• Amphetamines• Tranquilizers• Cocaine• MDMA (X)• LSD• Methamphetamine• Steroids• Heroin
21%12% 9%5% (crack 2%)7% 4%2%2%1%
class self-report survey• Disclaimer
– Overview of findings– Calculating Prevalence and Incidence– n=72 (51F; 19M; 2 missing)
• Average Incidence of Self-Reported Delinquency
chris uggen – soc 4141 12
e age c de ce o Se epo ted e que cyby Sex in Soc4141 in 2013 (versus 2008, 2007)
Index Other Drug Status
male2.4
(2.7, 3.7)8.0
(7.6, 8.8)7.3
(9.7, 8.2)11.5
(11.9, 11.4)
female1.7
(1.5, 1.8)5.7
(4.4, 5.2)5.4
(6.4, 7.4)10.9
(12.8, 13.2)
chris uggen 5
index crimes
offense prevalence incidence
n % f avg
INDEX PERSONALrape (CSC) 3 4% 5.5 0.1robbery 6 8% 12.0 0.2
chris uggen – soc 4141 13
agg. assault 12 17% 19.5 0.3INDEX PROPERTYburglary [B&E] 13 18% 17.5 0.2larceny-theft 20 28% 51.5 0.7auto theft 13 18% 28.0 0.4arson 2 3% 2.0 0.0INDEX SUBTOTAL 1.9
other nonindex
offense Prevalence incidence
n % f avg
assault 25 35% 43.0 0.6
weapon 9 13% 32 5 0 5
chris uggen – soc 4141 14
weapon 9 13% 32.5 0.5
vandalism 35 49% 71.0 1.0
solicitation 0 0% 0.0 0.0
petty $5-50 41 57% 132.0 1.8
petty <$5 53 74% 167.0 2.3
"OTHER" SUBTOTAL 6.2
substance use
offense prevalence incidence
n % f avg
cocaine 10 14% 26.5 0.4
chris uggen – soc 4141 15
marijuana 44 61% 175.0 2.4
lsd/shroom 15 21% 33.0 0.5
dist.liquor 38 53% 131.0 1.8
dealer-mj 12 17% 39.5 0.5
dealer-nonmj 7 10% 20.5 0.3
DRUG SUBTOTAL 5.9
chris uggen 6
Sex and Self-Reported Total Delinquency in Uggen's JD Classes
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
nce
chris uggen – soc 4141 16
2.5 2.62.3
1.7
2.4
2.1
1.7 2.32.4
1.81.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Inci
den
Index Other Drug Status
Sex and Self-Reported Index Crimes in Uggen's JD Classes
3
4
5
6
7
nce
chris uggen – soc 4141 17
0
1
2
3
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Inci
de
n
Male-Index Female Index
Sex and Self-Reported Total Delinquency in Uggen's Juvenile Delinquency Classes
30
40
50
60
nce
chris uggen – soc 4141 18
0
10
20
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Inci
de
Male Total Female Total
chris uggen 7
GROUP EXERCISE ON SRD• Form groups of 3-5;
– Discuss hypotheses on handout– Hand in 1 sheet of paper signed by all
Average Incidence of SRD by Sex, Soc 4141 F13
chris uggen – soc 414119
11.5
10.9
7.3
5.4
8.0
5.7
2.4
1.7
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
mal
efe
mal
e
indx othr drug status
Critique of Self-Report Studies
• Data problems• Reliability?• Internal validity: reverse record
checks
chris uggen – soc 4141 20
• External validity or generalizability
• Few analogous ADULT measures of self-reported crime (yet)
(c) victimization picture
• National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)
– Overview of Distribution and TrendsBivariate Correlates
chris uggen – soc 4141 21
– Bivariate Correlates– Critique
• SUMMARY OF 3 PICTURES
chris uggen 8
Uggen & McElrath (2013)
chris uggen – soc 4141 22
6 Social Sources of Crime Drop [Uggen & McElrath 2013]
1. Punishment (10-30% ?)2. Policing (10-20% ?)3. Opportunities (cell phones, home-
based entertainment, car based entertainment, car immobilizers)
4. Economics (small effects, boom or bust)
5. Demography (age and immigration)6. Long-term Social Dynamics (Eisner,
Pinker)chris uggen – soc 4141 23
Violent Victimization Rates by Age Group, 1973-2005
50
75
100
125
e (p
er 1
,000
per
so
chris uggen – soc 4141 24
0
25
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
Rat
e
12 to 15 16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65+
chris uggen 9
serious violent victimization against youth 12-17, 1994-2010
chris uggen – soc 4141 25
chris uggen – soc 4141 26
serious violent victimization by sex, 1980-2011 (1993 change)
[2011 boys safer than 1990s girls]
chris uggen – soc 4141 27
chris uggen 10
serious violent victimization by race, 1994-2010
50
60
70
80
90
you
th 1
2-17
)
chris uggen – soc 4141 28
0
10
20
30
40
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Rat
e (p
er 1
,000
Year
White* Black* Hispanic
serious violent youth victimization by residence, 1994-2010
50
60
70
80
90
1,00
0 yo
uth
12-
17)
chris uggen – soc 4141 29
0
10
20
30
40
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Rat
e (p
er
Urban Suburban Rural
Personal and Property Victimization by Income, 2005
30
40
50
60
Rate (per 1,000 persons/households)
chris uggen – soc 4141 30
0-7.5K7.5K-15K
15K-25K25K-35K
35K-50K50K-75K
75K+
Personal
Burglary
0
10
20
Annual Household Income
Personal Burglary
chris uggen 11
Serious Violent Crimes by Perceived Age of Offender, 2005
Under 121%
12 to 148%
30+40%
Unknown7%
Juvenile
chris uggen – soc 4141 31
15 to 1711%
18 to 208%21 to 29
25%
Juvenile22%
Under 12
12 to 14
15 to 17
18 to 20
21 to 29
30+
Unknown
victimization picture
• Overview of Distribution and Trends• Bivariate Correlates• Critique
– Interview problems: memory lapses, di t t h d f h h ld d ’t k
chris uggen – soc 4141 32
distrust, head of household, don’t know legal technicalities, language barriers
– No status offenses– No murders, kidnaps, “victimless”– No white-collar
• Summary of all 3
summary of 3 pictures• Distribution:
– Most delinquency is "property" or household by all measures
– Upward trend in juvenile violence from mid-80s to early-90s, declining or flat since
• Correlates and interactions– Age: "juveniles" in mid-teens are likely victims &
chris uggen – soc 4141 33
g j yoffenders
– Sex: males likely victims & offenders– Race/Ethnicity: African-Americans are most likely to
be arrested and victimized; especially for violent offenses (murder)
– Social class: the most disadvantaged are most often arrested & victimized,
– Group: most delinquency is done with others– Local picture: lower levels, but similar trends
chris uggen 12
Preventing Crime, What Works, What Doesn’t, What’s Promising
• where did this report come from? who did it? • are the methods choices defensible? what
sort of phenomena aren't considered? how might this limit the scope of the study?
• why do some programs persist without any • why do some programs persist without any evidence that they reduce crime?
• what surprised you on the "what works" and "promising" lists?
• are their common features or principles of more effective programs?
chris uggen – soc 4141 34
Rios 2: Dreams Deferred• Methods
– “shadowing” 40 young men (20 Latino/ 20 Af. Am.) for 3 years
– 30 had been arrested; snowball sampling– Not an “O.G.” or “gang leader”– Biases?
• Themes– Marginality, masculinity, defiance,
resistance– What is the “moral panic” around youth?
chris uggen – soc 4141 35
Next: Life Course! Psychology & Economics
• Moffitt, Terrie E. 1993. “Adolescent-Limited and Life-Course-Persistent Antisocial Behavior: A Developmental Taxonomy.”Psychological Review 100: 674-701.
• CWB, Chapter 10. Terrie E. Moffitt, “A Review of Research on the Taxonomy of Life-Course Persistent Versus Adolescence-Limited Antisocial Behavior.” Pp. 277-311.
• CWB, Chapter 13. Travis C. Pratt Francis T. Cullen Kristie R. Blevins Leah E. Daigle Tamara D. Madensen. “The Empirical Status of Deterrence Theory: A Meta-Analysis.” Pp. 367-95.
• Anthony Petrosino, Carolyn Turpin-Petrosino, and John Buehler. 2003. “Scared Straight and Other Juvenile Awareness Programs for Preventing Juvenile Delinquency: A Systematic Review of the Randomized Experimental
Evidence.” The ANNALS of the AAPSS 589:41-62.
chris uggen – soc 4141 36
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