Lecture 2 Climate Change

8/13/2019 Lecture 2 Climate Change

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Climate Change


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Climate ChangeAtmospheric science


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Why are we concerned with such a trace atmospheric gas?


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What else are wechanging?Many other green

house gassese.g., methane,CFCs, ozone

Albedo (reflectivity of

Earths surface)


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What are greenhouse gasses? Let sunlight in (transparentto shortwave radiation)

Earth heats up and radiatesheat (longwave radiation) GHGs are opaque to longwaveradiation (trap it and send it back to Earth)

GHGs are essential to life on EarthEarth average temperature with current CO2levels= 14oC and without would be -18oC

Venus (the most similar planet to Earth) has anatmosphere of 96.5% CO2and averagetemperatures of 449oC



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Global Warming Potential (GWP)Relative impact to cause global warming compared to CO2

Measuring UnitGreenhouse gasses (other than CO2) are measured as CO2 e(Carbon-dioxide equivalent)

Cumulative effects of all greenhouse gasses can then besummed up and presented in terms of total CO2e



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Climate ChangeEvidence


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(Solar + volcanic)

All forcings (Solar + Volcanic + Human induced)



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Past Inter-glacials1C 2C warmer

Sea ~ 5 10 m higher


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Miocene:3C 6C warmer

Sea ~ 20 40 mhigher

Eocene:5C 8C warmerSea ~ 100 m higher


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Hothouse Earth

Snowball Earth


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Climate ChangePredictions


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The Earths temperature has warmed by ~0.6oC during the

20thcentury

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has

projected:Over the next century average global temperature will rise by1.4oto 5.8oC

Combined effects of ice melting and water expansion due to

ocean warming will cause global sea-level rise of 0.1 m to 0.9 mby 2100

Increased storm intensity and drought with major impacts onagricultural production



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Climate ChangeCauses


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Climate ChangeCauses


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Climate ChangeDebates?


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Climate ChangeImplications

A range of impacts onhuman health, aggravatedby problems of water supply,

malnutrition and hunger inmany parts of the world

Massive increase in speciesextinction rates

Increase occurrences ofshort term extremebehaviours such asHurricanes, Floods and

Typhoons


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Temp.

rise

Tourism Water and

Agriculture

Infrastructure and

Energy

< 10C Snow covered area

shrinks by 10~40%

Wet tropics lose

half of their habitat

70% more frequent

drought in NSW

Melbournes water

supply falls 3~11%

14% of Victoriasmarine invertebrates

lose habitat

18% more days

above 350C in SA

10~20% more intense

rainfall in NSW

3% decrease inelectricity transmission

efficiency

> 10C 81% of Great

Barrier Reef

bleachedWet tropics lose

90% of their habitat

Melbournes water

supply falls 7~35%

Murray-Darlingflows falls 12~25%

40% loss of

Eucalyptus habitat

100 year flood

affected area in Cairns

wil l be doubledStorm surge rises

25% along Victorias

East Coast

Double the people

exposed to flooding

ImplicationsAustralia


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Temp.

rise

Tourism Water and

Agriculture

Infrastructure and

Energy

> 20C 97% of Great

Barrier Reef

bleached

80% of kakdu

freshwater wetlandslost

Macquarie River

flows fall by 5~35%

Pasture growth

slows by 31%

Livestock carryingcapacity in pasture

system falls by 40%

100 year storm t ides

along Victorias coast

15% more frequent

Tropical cyclone rain

increases 20~30%

Forest fire danger

rises 10% in Australia

> 30C Snow covered area

shrinks by 20~85%

Great Barrier Reefspecies shrink by

95%

65% Reef species

lost in Cairns region

Australian net

primary product ion

falls by 6%Murray-Darling

flows falls 16~48%

55% loss of

Eucalyptus habitat

Temperature related

deaths of people (>65)

rises by 89~123%Dengue fever

transmission zone

reaches to Brisbane

and possibly to Sydney



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Temp.

rise

Tourism Water and

Agriculture

Infrastructure and

Energy

> 40C Most Australian

vertebrates lose

90~100% of their

core habitat

Extreme rainfall in

Victoria increases by

25%

Peak electricity

demand in Adelaide,

Brisbane and Melbourne

increases by 9~25%

100 year storm t idesalong Victor ias coast

30% more frequent

>350C in SA and NT for

180 days in a year



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Natural disasters

Hurricane Katrina

New Orleans (Aug. 2005)

The value of economicdamage was US$125billion

Social consequencesare not countable indollars


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Ice sheet: Covers surrounding terrain > 50,000 km Glacier/Ice Cap: Covers surrounding terrain < 50,000 km Ice Shelf: a thick, floating platform of ice that forms where a

glacier or ice sheet flows down to a coastline/oceansurface (thickness 100~1000 m)

Sea Ice:Formed on water, is much thinner (< typically 3 m) The Greenland ice sheet occupies about 82% of the surface of

Greenland, and if melted would cause sea levels to rise by

7.2 metres

Climate ChangeIce
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_kilometerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_kilometerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_kilometerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_kilometer


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Climate ChangeIce


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Climate ChangeIce


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Arctic is warming fasteras a result of rapidly

changing albedo

1860 1880

-2.0Differenc

e(C)from1

961-1990mean All land area

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0Arctic (land north of 65N)

Climate ChangeIce


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Arctic Summer Sea Ice Loss Compared to IPCC Models


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Climate ChangeIce


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1992 2005

Greenland satellite melt record

Climate ChangeIce

McCarty Glacier Alaska


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McCarty Glacier, Alaska

Muir and Riggs Glaciers


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Muir and Riggs Glaciers

Patagonia


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1928 2004

Patagonia


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Climate Change

C C


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Observed rate of sea-level rise and estimated contributions from

different sources

Climate ChangeSea level


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Potential sea level rise if lost

Cli t Ch


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Cli t Ch


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Cli t Ch


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10 m rise in sea level


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70 m rise in sea level, all ice melting

(without thermal expansion)


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Cli t Ch


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Cli t Ch


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Cli t Ch


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Climate ChangeWhat can we do?

Cli t Ch


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Source: Financial Times, 4-Mar-09: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9cccc2fc-08ee-11de-b8b0-0000779fd2ac.html?ftcamp=rss


Climate Change


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Climate Change


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There are three approaches

Change our behaviour

Change the technology

Change the fuel


Climate Change


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Change our behaviourDeveloped economies live in a consumer-led, energy intensiveand energy wasteful society.Developed world is not a role model for resource efficiency.

Behaviour change can be achieved through:

Awareness (education)

Acknowledgement

Action Which might require:Economic incentives

Taxes

Regulation / legislation


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Change the TechnologyCO2 sequestration:Aquifer disposalInjection in depleted reservoirsInjection in Oil Recovery ProcessOcean disposalNo evidence this technology will ever work, mostly a red-herringto allow coal to continue to be exploited

Nuclear:Carbon free butNuclear wasteSafety!!!


Climate Change


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Change the fuelSolarWindGeothermal

TidalHydroelectricBiomassHydrogen fuel cells



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Climate Change


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Survey of experts on the most efficient means of dealing with climate change

Behaviour change

Technology changeFuel change

Behaviour change

Behaviour change

Behaviour change

Technology change

Climate Change


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Survey of experts on the most efficient means of dealing with climate change

Behaviour change

Technology changeFuel change

Behaviour change

Behaviour change

Behaviour change


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Climate Change


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In 1997, United Nations Convention on Climate Change at Kyoto(Japan) adopted:

An upper limit of CO2in atmosphere to be 450 ppmAustralia committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to

108% of 1990 level by 2008-12


Without Carbon tax


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The Carbon Tax


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Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)


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On December 2003, the ChicagoClimate Exchange opened for tradingand by July 1, 2004, had traded over 1million tons of CO

2

.

The members have made a voluntary,legally binding commitment to reducetheir emissions of greenhouse gases

by 4% below the average of their1998-2001 baselines by 2006 and afurther 6% by 2010.

A North America based GlobalVoluntary Trading Scheme

Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)


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Climate Change


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Lecture 2 Climate Change

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