1 Lecture #1: Mumbai’s Rise The end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time. - T. S. Eliot • Welcome! • Thanks for coming • Looking forward to exciting cruise • Slides for 40 minutes and 5 minutes Q&A • Welcome to chat afterwards 2 Joe Coffey – Azamara Destination Lecturer • Purpose: enrich your Spice Route Cruise • Background: Farm boy, PhD in economics, former college professor and business exec • “Retired”: Teaching world affairs classes • Cruiser: 12 th as lecturer – E. Asia, Mediterranean, Baltic, Caribbean and S. America • Topics: Global and historical significance: Past, Present and Future of country/region 1 2
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Transcript
1
Lecture 1 Mumbairsquos Rise
The end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started
and know the place for the first time - T S Eliot
bull Welcomebull Thanks for comingbull Looking forward to exciting cruisebull Slides for 40 minutes and 5 minutes QampAbull Welcome to chat afterwards
2
Joe Coffey ndash Azamara Destination LecturerbullPurpose enrich your Spice Route CruisebullBackground Farm boy PhD in economics former college professor and business execbullldquoRetiredrdquo Teaching world affairs classesbullCruiser 12th as lecturer ndash E Asia Mediterranean Baltic Caribbean and S Americabull Topics Global and historical significance Past
Present and Future of countryregion
1
2
2
Spice Route 8 Lecture Topics(In Cabaret Lounge Deck 5 Forward)
1 (Khor Al Fakkan) Thu Nov 8 Mumbairsquos rise
2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
3 ( Mumbai) Sun Nov 11 Understanding Amazing Asia
4 (Colombo) Wed Nov 14 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
5 (At Sea) Sat Nov 17 Myanmarrsquos marvels
6 (At SeaYangon) Sun Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
7 (YangonAt Sea) Wed Nov 21 Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
8 (At Sea) Thur Nov 22 Singapore - Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
3(Subject to change- Check Inside calendar)
Global Significance of Spice Route
4
◼ ldquoMystery of historyrdquo ndashlands unseen
◼ More nations wars amp discoveries over spices
◼ Greeks overland to India for spices
◼ Columbus sailed west for spices
◼ Da Gama amp Magellan sailed east for spices
◼ Ultimately led to colonization globalization and rise of Asia
3
4
3
5
Ambitions of Russia
Majority of Muslims
Borders China
Ocean of Future
Lonely democracy
Nuclear Pakistan amp Chinarsquos Belt amp Road project
Volatile Middle East and 70 oil
Significance of India Geopolitical Pivot of 21st Century
Afghanistan war
Malacca Straits choke point
Contested Kashmir
◼ Soon 1 in population amp 2 economy
◼ Strategic location
◼ Largest democracy
◼ Global balancer
6
Indian Subcontinent Complex diverse and impacted by colonization
◼ Not backward or easy to colonize took 3 centuries
◼ Asia ahead of Europe until 1500rsquos
◼ Decolonization traumatic
◼ I seek to provide context
5
6
4
7India amp Spice Route Map of European colonies
◼ 4-centuries of colonization
◼ All except Thailand
◼ By Portuguese French Dutch Netherlands amp British
◼ British most important and lasting
◼ Independence after WW II
Mumbai Gateway to India most liberal and richest India of the Future
8
Post-colonial name changes Bombay to Mumbai Ceylon to Sri Lanka Burma to Myanmar Rangoon to Yangonhellip
7
8
5
Indianness Culture
9
Extended family
122 languages ndash 5 speak English ldquoa disease left behind by Britishrdquo
Gandhian Non-violence
Sacred cows
10
9
10
6
Much to eye in Mumbai
◼ Gateway to India
◼ Elephanta Island
◼ Prince of Wales (CSMVS)
Museum
◼ St Thomas Cathedral
◼ Flora Fountain
◼ General Post Office
◼ Victoria Terminus
◼ Mani Bhavan - Gandhi Museum
◼ Dharavi slum of Slumdog Millionaire fame
11
12Gateway of India
bull Built in 1911 for King George V
bull But was cardboard model not done
bull Iconic and livelybull Near Elephanta Is bull Near Taj Mahal
Hotel where Pakistan terrorist hit in 2008 and 164 died
11
12
7
13Prince of Wales Museum (CSMVS) ndash Top for ancient India
14Saint ldquoDoubtingrdquo Thomas Cathedral 300-year Christian Church
bull 300-year old church
bull St Thomas brought Christianity 2000 years ago
bull Now 23 of population
bull Chatolism by Portuguese in 1500s
13
14
8
15Elephanta Island Caves
bull World Heritage
bull 1500 years Hindu worship
bull Portuguese named in 1534
bull Near Gateway
16
British ruled India for 200 years ndash Historians debate British benefits and costs
1945 Queen Elizabeth visiting POWs
Benefits ndashroads railroads banking English democracy
Costs ndash GDP share dropped massacred protestors entrenched racism caused starvation de-industrialized
15
16
9
What are the facts How did India do during and after British Rule
17
YearsGDP annual
growthEra
1900-1950 10 British rule
1950-1980 35 After Independence amp partition
1981-1993 52 Govt ownership amp regulation
1994-2003 60 After crisis amp market reforms
2004-2011 85 Boom under global growth
2012-2015 54 After Global recession
Slow growth under British and faster
afterwards
Source Vijay Joshi Indias Long Road p 16-17
18
Gandhi and Nehru ndashfamous family rule 40 of 60 years
Gandhi ndash Father of IndependenceNehru ndash Father of Modern India
Gandhi Museum visit by Obamas
17
18
10
19
India is dramatically changing
From NehruGandhi contentedness self-sufficiency balancing power To Modirsquos prominent
globalizing leading power
But still long way to go opportunities for women and 600 million very poor
Modi seeking world leadership role
20
ASEAN
Europe
Japan
BRICS
US
19
20
11
21Business is growing but still small and over-regulated
bull Business increasing but informal predominates
bull 1991 reforms crucial
bull Growing telecommunication automotive IT pharmaceutical
bull Still much red tape
Bollywood ndash Mumbai center of worldrsquos largest film industry22
bull 2000 films per year
bull 36 vs 26 bil Tickets vs Hollywood
21
22
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
2
Spice Route 8 Lecture Topics(In Cabaret Lounge Deck 5 Forward)
1 (Khor Al Fakkan) Thu Nov 8 Mumbairsquos rise
2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
3 ( Mumbai) Sun Nov 11 Understanding Amazing Asia
4 (Colombo) Wed Nov 14 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
5 (At Sea) Sat Nov 17 Myanmarrsquos marvels
6 (At SeaYangon) Sun Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
7 (YangonAt Sea) Wed Nov 21 Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
8 (At Sea) Thur Nov 22 Singapore - Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
3(Subject to change- Check Inside calendar)
Global Significance of Spice Route
4
◼ ldquoMystery of historyrdquo ndashlands unseen
◼ More nations wars amp discoveries over spices
◼ Greeks overland to India for spices
◼ Columbus sailed west for spices
◼ Da Gama amp Magellan sailed east for spices
◼ Ultimately led to colonization globalization and rise of Asia
3
4
3
5
Ambitions of Russia
Majority of Muslims
Borders China
Ocean of Future
Lonely democracy
Nuclear Pakistan amp Chinarsquos Belt amp Road project
Volatile Middle East and 70 oil
Significance of India Geopolitical Pivot of 21st Century
Afghanistan war
Malacca Straits choke point
Contested Kashmir
◼ Soon 1 in population amp 2 economy
◼ Strategic location
◼ Largest democracy
◼ Global balancer
6
Indian Subcontinent Complex diverse and impacted by colonization
◼ Not backward or easy to colonize took 3 centuries
◼ Asia ahead of Europe until 1500rsquos
◼ Decolonization traumatic
◼ I seek to provide context
5
6
4
7India amp Spice Route Map of European colonies
◼ 4-centuries of colonization
◼ All except Thailand
◼ By Portuguese French Dutch Netherlands amp British
◼ British most important and lasting
◼ Independence after WW II
Mumbai Gateway to India most liberal and richest India of the Future
8
Post-colonial name changes Bombay to Mumbai Ceylon to Sri Lanka Burma to Myanmar Rangoon to Yangonhellip
7
8
5
Indianness Culture
9
Extended family
122 languages ndash 5 speak English ldquoa disease left behind by Britishrdquo
Gandhian Non-violence
Sacred cows
10
9
10
6
Much to eye in Mumbai
◼ Gateway to India
◼ Elephanta Island
◼ Prince of Wales (CSMVS)
Museum
◼ St Thomas Cathedral
◼ Flora Fountain
◼ General Post Office
◼ Victoria Terminus
◼ Mani Bhavan - Gandhi Museum
◼ Dharavi slum of Slumdog Millionaire fame
11
12Gateway of India
bull Built in 1911 for King George V
bull But was cardboard model not done
bull Iconic and livelybull Near Elephanta Is bull Near Taj Mahal
Hotel where Pakistan terrorist hit in 2008 and 164 died
11
12
7
13Prince of Wales Museum (CSMVS) ndash Top for ancient India
14Saint ldquoDoubtingrdquo Thomas Cathedral 300-year Christian Church
bull 300-year old church
bull St Thomas brought Christianity 2000 years ago
bull Now 23 of population
bull Chatolism by Portuguese in 1500s
13
14
8
15Elephanta Island Caves
bull World Heritage
bull 1500 years Hindu worship
bull Portuguese named in 1534
bull Near Gateway
16
British ruled India for 200 years ndash Historians debate British benefits and costs
1945 Queen Elizabeth visiting POWs
Benefits ndashroads railroads banking English democracy
Costs ndash GDP share dropped massacred protestors entrenched racism caused starvation de-industrialized
15
16
9
What are the facts How did India do during and after British Rule
17
YearsGDP annual
growthEra
1900-1950 10 British rule
1950-1980 35 After Independence amp partition
1981-1993 52 Govt ownership amp regulation
1994-2003 60 After crisis amp market reforms
2004-2011 85 Boom under global growth
2012-2015 54 After Global recession
Slow growth under British and faster
afterwards
Source Vijay Joshi Indias Long Road p 16-17
18
Gandhi and Nehru ndashfamous family rule 40 of 60 years
Gandhi ndash Father of IndependenceNehru ndash Father of Modern India
Gandhi Museum visit by Obamas
17
18
10
19
India is dramatically changing
From NehruGandhi contentedness self-sufficiency balancing power To Modirsquos prominent
globalizing leading power
But still long way to go opportunities for women and 600 million very poor
Modi seeking world leadership role
20
ASEAN
Europe
Japan
BRICS
US
19
20
11
21Business is growing but still small and over-regulated
bull Business increasing but informal predominates
bull 1991 reforms crucial
bull Growing telecommunication automotive IT pharmaceutical
bull Still much red tape
Bollywood ndash Mumbai center of worldrsquos largest film industry22
bull 2000 films per year
bull 36 vs 26 bil Tickets vs Hollywood
21
22
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
3
5
Ambitions of Russia
Majority of Muslims
Borders China
Ocean of Future
Lonely democracy
Nuclear Pakistan amp Chinarsquos Belt amp Road project
Volatile Middle East and 70 oil
Significance of India Geopolitical Pivot of 21st Century
Afghanistan war
Malacca Straits choke point
Contested Kashmir
◼ Soon 1 in population amp 2 economy
◼ Strategic location
◼ Largest democracy
◼ Global balancer
6
Indian Subcontinent Complex diverse and impacted by colonization
◼ Not backward or easy to colonize took 3 centuries
◼ Asia ahead of Europe until 1500rsquos
◼ Decolonization traumatic
◼ I seek to provide context
5
6
4
7India amp Spice Route Map of European colonies
◼ 4-centuries of colonization
◼ All except Thailand
◼ By Portuguese French Dutch Netherlands amp British
◼ British most important and lasting
◼ Independence after WW II
Mumbai Gateway to India most liberal and richest India of the Future
8
Post-colonial name changes Bombay to Mumbai Ceylon to Sri Lanka Burma to Myanmar Rangoon to Yangonhellip
7
8
5
Indianness Culture
9
Extended family
122 languages ndash 5 speak English ldquoa disease left behind by Britishrdquo
Gandhian Non-violence
Sacred cows
10
9
10
6
Much to eye in Mumbai
◼ Gateway to India
◼ Elephanta Island
◼ Prince of Wales (CSMVS)
Museum
◼ St Thomas Cathedral
◼ Flora Fountain
◼ General Post Office
◼ Victoria Terminus
◼ Mani Bhavan - Gandhi Museum
◼ Dharavi slum of Slumdog Millionaire fame
11
12Gateway of India
bull Built in 1911 for King George V
bull But was cardboard model not done
bull Iconic and livelybull Near Elephanta Is bull Near Taj Mahal
Hotel where Pakistan terrorist hit in 2008 and 164 died
11
12
7
13Prince of Wales Museum (CSMVS) ndash Top for ancient India
14Saint ldquoDoubtingrdquo Thomas Cathedral 300-year Christian Church
bull 300-year old church
bull St Thomas brought Christianity 2000 years ago
bull Now 23 of population
bull Chatolism by Portuguese in 1500s
13
14
8
15Elephanta Island Caves
bull World Heritage
bull 1500 years Hindu worship
bull Portuguese named in 1534
bull Near Gateway
16
British ruled India for 200 years ndash Historians debate British benefits and costs
1945 Queen Elizabeth visiting POWs
Benefits ndashroads railroads banking English democracy
Costs ndash GDP share dropped massacred protestors entrenched racism caused starvation de-industrialized
15
16
9
What are the facts How did India do during and after British Rule
17
YearsGDP annual
growthEra
1900-1950 10 British rule
1950-1980 35 After Independence amp partition
1981-1993 52 Govt ownership amp regulation
1994-2003 60 After crisis amp market reforms
2004-2011 85 Boom under global growth
2012-2015 54 After Global recession
Slow growth under British and faster
afterwards
Source Vijay Joshi Indias Long Road p 16-17
18
Gandhi and Nehru ndashfamous family rule 40 of 60 years
Gandhi ndash Father of IndependenceNehru ndash Father of Modern India
Gandhi Museum visit by Obamas
17
18
10
19
India is dramatically changing
From NehruGandhi contentedness self-sufficiency balancing power To Modirsquos prominent
globalizing leading power
But still long way to go opportunities for women and 600 million very poor
Modi seeking world leadership role
20
ASEAN
Europe
Japan
BRICS
US
19
20
11
21Business is growing but still small and over-regulated
bull Business increasing but informal predominates
bull 1991 reforms crucial
bull Growing telecommunication automotive IT pharmaceutical
bull Still much red tape
Bollywood ndash Mumbai center of worldrsquos largest film industry22
bull 2000 films per year
bull 36 vs 26 bil Tickets vs Hollywood
21
22
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
4
7India amp Spice Route Map of European colonies
◼ 4-centuries of colonization
◼ All except Thailand
◼ By Portuguese French Dutch Netherlands amp British
◼ British most important and lasting
◼ Independence after WW II
Mumbai Gateway to India most liberal and richest India of the Future
8
Post-colonial name changes Bombay to Mumbai Ceylon to Sri Lanka Burma to Myanmar Rangoon to Yangonhellip
7
8
5
Indianness Culture
9
Extended family
122 languages ndash 5 speak English ldquoa disease left behind by Britishrdquo
Gandhian Non-violence
Sacred cows
10
9
10
6
Much to eye in Mumbai
◼ Gateway to India
◼ Elephanta Island
◼ Prince of Wales (CSMVS)
Museum
◼ St Thomas Cathedral
◼ Flora Fountain
◼ General Post Office
◼ Victoria Terminus
◼ Mani Bhavan - Gandhi Museum
◼ Dharavi slum of Slumdog Millionaire fame
11
12Gateway of India
bull Built in 1911 for King George V
bull But was cardboard model not done
bull Iconic and livelybull Near Elephanta Is bull Near Taj Mahal
Hotel where Pakistan terrorist hit in 2008 and 164 died
11
12
7
13Prince of Wales Museum (CSMVS) ndash Top for ancient India
14Saint ldquoDoubtingrdquo Thomas Cathedral 300-year Christian Church
bull 300-year old church
bull St Thomas brought Christianity 2000 years ago
bull Now 23 of population
bull Chatolism by Portuguese in 1500s
13
14
8
15Elephanta Island Caves
bull World Heritage
bull 1500 years Hindu worship
bull Portuguese named in 1534
bull Near Gateway
16
British ruled India for 200 years ndash Historians debate British benefits and costs
1945 Queen Elizabeth visiting POWs
Benefits ndashroads railroads banking English democracy
Costs ndash GDP share dropped massacred protestors entrenched racism caused starvation de-industrialized
15
16
9
What are the facts How did India do during and after British Rule
17
YearsGDP annual
growthEra
1900-1950 10 British rule
1950-1980 35 After Independence amp partition
1981-1993 52 Govt ownership amp regulation
1994-2003 60 After crisis amp market reforms
2004-2011 85 Boom under global growth
2012-2015 54 After Global recession
Slow growth under British and faster
afterwards
Source Vijay Joshi Indias Long Road p 16-17
18
Gandhi and Nehru ndashfamous family rule 40 of 60 years
Gandhi ndash Father of IndependenceNehru ndash Father of Modern India
Gandhi Museum visit by Obamas
17
18
10
19
India is dramatically changing
From NehruGandhi contentedness self-sufficiency balancing power To Modirsquos prominent
globalizing leading power
But still long way to go opportunities for women and 600 million very poor
Modi seeking world leadership role
20
ASEAN
Europe
Japan
BRICS
US
19
20
11
21Business is growing but still small and over-regulated
bull Business increasing but informal predominates
bull 1991 reforms crucial
bull Growing telecommunication automotive IT pharmaceutical
bull Still much red tape
Bollywood ndash Mumbai center of worldrsquos largest film industry22
bull 2000 films per year
bull 36 vs 26 bil Tickets vs Hollywood
21
22
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
5
Indianness Culture
9
Extended family
122 languages ndash 5 speak English ldquoa disease left behind by Britishrdquo
Gandhian Non-violence
Sacred cows
10
9
10
6
Much to eye in Mumbai
◼ Gateway to India
◼ Elephanta Island
◼ Prince of Wales (CSMVS)
Museum
◼ St Thomas Cathedral
◼ Flora Fountain
◼ General Post Office
◼ Victoria Terminus
◼ Mani Bhavan - Gandhi Museum
◼ Dharavi slum of Slumdog Millionaire fame
11
12Gateway of India
bull Built in 1911 for King George V
bull But was cardboard model not done
bull Iconic and livelybull Near Elephanta Is bull Near Taj Mahal
Hotel where Pakistan terrorist hit in 2008 and 164 died
11
12
7
13Prince of Wales Museum (CSMVS) ndash Top for ancient India
14Saint ldquoDoubtingrdquo Thomas Cathedral 300-year Christian Church
bull 300-year old church
bull St Thomas brought Christianity 2000 years ago
bull Now 23 of population
bull Chatolism by Portuguese in 1500s
13
14
8
15Elephanta Island Caves
bull World Heritage
bull 1500 years Hindu worship
bull Portuguese named in 1534
bull Near Gateway
16
British ruled India for 200 years ndash Historians debate British benefits and costs
1945 Queen Elizabeth visiting POWs
Benefits ndashroads railroads banking English democracy
Costs ndash GDP share dropped massacred protestors entrenched racism caused starvation de-industrialized
15
16
9
What are the facts How did India do during and after British Rule
17
YearsGDP annual
growthEra
1900-1950 10 British rule
1950-1980 35 After Independence amp partition
1981-1993 52 Govt ownership amp regulation
1994-2003 60 After crisis amp market reforms
2004-2011 85 Boom under global growth
2012-2015 54 After Global recession
Slow growth under British and faster
afterwards
Source Vijay Joshi Indias Long Road p 16-17
18
Gandhi and Nehru ndashfamous family rule 40 of 60 years
Gandhi ndash Father of IndependenceNehru ndash Father of Modern India
Gandhi Museum visit by Obamas
17
18
10
19
India is dramatically changing
From NehruGandhi contentedness self-sufficiency balancing power To Modirsquos prominent
globalizing leading power
But still long way to go opportunities for women and 600 million very poor
Modi seeking world leadership role
20
ASEAN
Europe
Japan
BRICS
US
19
20
11
21Business is growing but still small and over-regulated
bull Business increasing but informal predominates
bull 1991 reforms crucial
bull Growing telecommunication automotive IT pharmaceutical
bull Still much red tape
Bollywood ndash Mumbai center of worldrsquos largest film industry22
bull 2000 films per year
bull 36 vs 26 bil Tickets vs Hollywood
21
22
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
6
Much to eye in Mumbai
◼ Gateway to India
◼ Elephanta Island
◼ Prince of Wales (CSMVS)
Museum
◼ St Thomas Cathedral
◼ Flora Fountain
◼ General Post Office
◼ Victoria Terminus
◼ Mani Bhavan - Gandhi Museum
◼ Dharavi slum of Slumdog Millionaire fame
11
12Gateway of India
bull Built in 1911 for King George V
bull But was cardboard model not done
bull Iconic and livelybull Near Elephanta Is bull Near Taj Mahal
Hotel where Pakistan terrorist hit in 2008 and 164 died
11
12
7
13Prince of Wales Museum (CSMVS) ndash Top for ancient India
14Saint ldquoDoubtingrdquo Thomas Cathedral 300-year Christian Church
bull 300-year old church
bull St Thomas brought Christianity 2000 years ago
bull Now 23 of population
bull Chatolism by Portuguese in 1500s
13
14
8
15Elephanta Island Caves
bull World Heritage
bull 1500 years Hindu worship
bull Portuguese named in 1534
bull Near Gateway
16
British ruled India for 200 years ndash Historians debate British benefits and costs
1945 Queen Elizabeth visiting POWs
Benefits ndashroads railroads banking English democracy
Costs ndash GDP share dropped massacred protestors entrenched racism caused starvation de-industrialized
15
16
9
What are the facts How did India do during and after British Rule
17
YearsGDP annual
growthEra
1900-1950 10 British rule
1950-1980 35 After Independence amp partition
1981-1993 52 Govt ownership amp regulation
1994-2003 60 After crisis amp market reforms
2004-2011 85 Boom under global growth
2012-2015 54 After Global recession
Slow growth under British and faster
afterwards
Source Vijay Joshi Indias Long Road p 16-17
18
Gandhi and Nehru ndashfamous family rule 40 of 60 years
Gandhi ndash Father of IndependenceNehru ndash Father of Modern India
Gandhi Museum visit by Obamas
17
18
10
19
India is dramatically changing
From NehruGandhi contentedness self-sufficiency balancing power To Modirsquos prominent
globalizing leading power
But still long way to go opportunities for women and 600 million very poor
Modi seeking world leadership role
20
ASEAN
Europe
Japan
BRICS
US
19
20
11
21Business is growing but still small and over-regulated
bull Business increasing but informal predominates
bull 1991 reforms crucial
bull Growing telecommunication automotive IT pharmaceutical
bull Still much red tape
Bollywood ndash Mumbai center of worldrsquos largest film industry22
bull 2000 films per year
bull 36 vs 26 bil Tickets vs Hollywood
21
22
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
7
13Prince of Wales Museum (CSMVS) ndash Top for ancient India
14Saint ldquoDoubtingrdquo Thomas Cathedral 300-year Christian Church
bull 300-year old church
bull St Thomas brought Christianity 2000 years ago
bull Now 23 of population
bull Chatolism by Portuguese in 1500s
13
14
8
15Elephanta Island Caves
bull World Heritage
bull 1500 years Hindu worship
bull Portuguese named in 1534
bull Near Gateway
16
British ruled India for 200 years ndash Historians debate British benefits and costs
1945 Queen Elizabeth visiting POWs
Benefits ndashroads railroads banking English democracy
Costs ndash GDP share dropped massacred protestors entrenched racism caused starvation de-industrialized
15
16
9
What are the facts How did India do during and after British Rule
17
YearsGDP annual
growthEra
1900-1950 10 British rule
1950-1980 35 After Independence amp partition
1981-1993 52 Govt ownership amp regulation
1994-2003 60 After crisis amp market reforms
2004-2011 85 Boom under global growth
2012-2015 54 After Global recession
Slow growth under British and faster
afterwards
Source Vijay Joshi Indias Long Road p 16-17
18
Gandhi and Nehru ndashfamous family rule 40 of 60 years
Gandhi ndash Father of IndependenceNehru ndash Father of Modern India
Gandhi Museum visit by Obamas
17
18
10
19
India is dramatically changing
From NehruGandhi contentedness self-sufficiency balancing power To Modirsquos prominent
globalizing leading power
But still long way to go opportunities for women and 600 million very poor
Modi seeking world leadership role
20
ASEAN
Europe
Japan
BRICS
US
19
20
11
21Business is growing but still small and over-regulated
bull Business increasing but informal predominates
bull 1991 reforms crucial
bull Growing telecommunication automotive IT pharmaceutical
bull Still much red tape
Bollywood ndash Mumbai center of worldrsquos largest film industry22
bull 2000 films per year
bull 36 vs 26 bil Tickets vs Hollywood
21
22
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
8
15Elephanta Island Caves
bull World Heritage
bull 1500 years Hindu worship
bull Portuguese named in 1534
bull Near Gateway
16
British ruled India for 200 years ndash Historians debate British benefits and costs
1945 Queen Elizabeth visiting POWs
Benefits ndashroads railroads banking English democracy
Costs ndash GDP share dropped massacred protestors entrenched racism caused starvation de-industrialized
15
16
9
What are the facts How did India do during and after British Rule
17
YearsGDP annual
growthEra
1900-1950 10 British rule
1950-1980 35 After Independence amp partition
1981-1993 52 Govt ownership amp regulation
1994-2003 60 After crisis amp market reforms
2004-2011 85 Boom under global growth
2012-2015 54 After Global recession
Slow growth under British and faster
afterwards
Source Vijay Joshi Indias Long Road p 16-17
18
Gandhi and Nehru ndashfamous family rule 40 of 60 years
Gandhi ndash Father of IndependenceNehru ndash Father of Modern India
Gandhi Museum visit by Obamas
17
18
10
19
India is dramatically changing
From NehruGandhi contentedness self-sufficiency balancing power To Modirsquos prominent
globalizing leading power
But still long way to go opportunities for women and 600 million very poor
Modi seeking world leadership role
20
ASEAN
Europe
Japan
BRICS
US
19
20
11
21Business is growing but still small and over-regulated
bull Business increasing but informal predominates
bull 1991 reforms crucial
bull Growing telecommunication automotive IT pharmaceutical
bull Still much red tape
Bollywood ndash Mumbai center of worldrsquos largest film industry22
bull 2000 films per year
bull 36 vs 26 bil Tickets vs Hollywood
21
22
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
9
What are the facts How did India do during and after British Rule
17
YearsGDP annual
growthEra
1900-1950 10 British rule
1950-1980 35 After Independence amp partition
1981-1993 52 Govt ownership amp regulation
1994-2003 60 After crisis amp market reforms
2004-2011 85 Boom under global growth
2012-2015 54 After Global recession
Slow growth under British and faster
afterwards
Source Vijay Joshi Indias Long Road p 16-17
18
Gandhi and Nehru ndashfamous family rule 40 of 60 years
Gandhi ndash Father of IndependenceNehru ndash Father of Modern India
Gandhi Museum visit by Obamas
17
18
10
19
India is dramatically changing
From NehruGandhi contentedness self-sufficiency balancing power To Modirsquos prominent
globalizing leading power
But still long way to go opportunities for women and 600 million very poor
Modi seeking world leadership role
20
ASEAN
Europe
Japan
BRICS
US
19
20
11
21Business is growing but still small and over-regulated
bull Business increasing but informal predominates
bull 1991 reforms crucial
bull Growing telecommunication automotive IT pharmaceutical
bull Still much red tape
Bollywood ndash Mumbai center of worldrsquos largest film industry22
bull 2000 films per year
bull 36 vs 26 bil Tickets vs Hollywood
21
22
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
10
19
India is dramatically changing
From NehruGandhi contentedness self-sufficiency balancing power To Modirsquos prominent
globalizing leading power
But still long way to go opportunities for women and 600 million very poor
Modi seeking world leadership role
20
ASEAN
Europe
Japan
BRICS
US
19
20
11
21Business is growing but still small and over-regulated
bull Business increasing but informal predominates
bull 1991 reforms crucial
bull Growing telecommunication automotive IT pharmaceutical
bull Still much red tape
Bollywood ndash Mumbai center of worldrsquos largest film industry22
bull 2000 films per year
bull 36 vs 26 bil Tickets vs Hollywood
21
22
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
11
21Business is growing but still small and over-regulated
bull Business increasing but informal predominates
bull 1991 reforms crucial
bull Growing telecommunication automotive IT pharmaceutical
bull Still much red tape
Bollywood ndash Mumbai center of worldrsquos largest film industry22
bull 2000 films per year
bull 36 vs 26 bil Tickets vs Hollywood
21
22
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
12
23Dharavi - of Slumdog Millionaire fame
bull Academy award but controversial among Hindus
bull Old large slum bull 1 sq mi and 1
million people
24Mumbai juxtaposition of shanties and skyscrapers
bull Wealthiest citybull Dual economy bull Inequality
century- highbull Top 1 have
60
23
24
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
13
◼ Great city of India and the world
◼ Rich in history ndash religion architecture ports monuments spices hellip
◼ But most noteworthy is its ambition and transition
◼ Emerging from passivity to global activity
◼ Long overshadowed by China Indiarsquos time has come
◼ India is poised to become a world leader
25
Conclusion Mumbairsquos Rise
Lecture 2 (At Sea) Fri Nov 9 Kochirsquos cachet
Azamara Spice Route Cruise2 Friday November 9
ldquoKochirsquos Cacherdquo
25
26
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
14
Dominance decline and rise of India and Chinarsquos share of world GDP
27
Dominance RiseDecline
Major Erarsquos of Indian Subcontinent
I 3300-1300 BC Indus ValleyHarappan Civilization
II 500-1500 Golden ages more advanced than Europe
III 1504-1947 Europeans arrive then colonize
A 1612-1757 East India Co in India
B 1757-1858 East India Co rules India
C 1858-1947 British Raj replaces British East India Co
IV 1947-1990 Independence partition amp non-alignment
V 1990-2014 Fall of USSR Rise of China market reforms
VI 2014-18 Modirsquos more aggressive foreign engagement robust growth Hindu nationalism
Big question for future Will China rule or India counterbalance
28
27
28
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
15
29
Indus Valley or Harappan Civilization (3300ndash1300 BC)
Cradle of civilization ndashpeaceful amp prosperous
5 mil peoplePlanned city
brick houses drainage and water supply
Traded with Mesopotamia
Now border with Pakistan
30
Da Gamarsquos voyages long treacherous secretive
7 mos110 diedHeroBut
wrangled Left
prematurelyamp killed hundreds of innocents
29
30
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
16
31
Dozens of European settlements some even stayed after 1947 Independence when British left
32
Taj Mahal most romantic monument
Not at Kochi -1500 miles north
Mughal emperorrsquos wifersquos tomb
Also monument to his incredible wealth from trading gold and silver
Built in 1653 $1 billion
31
32
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
17
Iconic Chinese fishing nets
Melting pot -600 years of foreigners
Flourished after 1869 Suez Canal expanded trade
Now 2 mil
34
450 years of Colonization ndash Portuguese ousted by Dutch then British until Independence
Fort Kochi - 450 yrs colonization
1503 granted to Portuguese for aid in local war
In 1683 Dutch captured
In 1795 British took control
Chinese amp others there also
33
34
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
18
35
Tourist sites Indo Portuguese
museumChinese fishing
netsDutch CemeterySyrian ChurchSt Francis
ChurchFort Emmanuel Jewish
SynagogueMattancherry
Palace Jain Temple
36
1503 St Francis Church where da Gama 1st buried
Wasnrsquot only riches Portuguese sought but to oust Muslims
Oldest European church in India
da Gama died of malaria in 1524 after 3rd visit
Remains removed to Lisbon
Portuguese King sent da Gama to unite Christianity destroy Islam and make him ldquoKing of Jerusalemrdquo
Today in Kochi 35 are Christians vs 2 overall India
35
36
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
19
37Indo-Portuguese Museum at Fort Kochi
Portuguese fought their way into and out of India 450 years later in 1961
Portuguese left indelible mark
Initially in Kochi but then Goa
Remained after 1947 until forced out by India in 1961
Portuguese even had airline to service their enclaves
38
Kochi Dhobi (laundry) remnants of caste system
Dhobirsquos are Tamils 6 in India amp 25 in Sri Lanka
Informal economy --outside of government protection and regulation
Large informal economy 90 of non-ag workers 50 of GDP and 75 of all businesses
Drum with hole to spin the clothes
Clothes hung between ropes
37
38
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
20
39
40
Shiva Hindu Temple at Vaikom
Where Gandhian principles of non-violence tested
Shiva Temple key 1924ndash25 movement anti-untouchability
Sought freedom of movement for all castes but authorities refused
Where Gandhian principles of nonviolence was proved effective
39
40
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
21
41
Classical dances and costumes with Hindu symbolism
Kathakali classical dance at Greenix Village
Hindu religion amp culture inseparable
Symbols gods lotus flower amp extra limbs
Extra limbs show power to multi-task
Lotus flower represents purity beauty prosperity fertility and transcendence of hardship
To blossom lotus must grow out of mud and rest atop water - must endure hardship in to
42
Green Revolution doubled Indian grain yields no more famines but hunger persists
Rice paddy of T farm -Kochi excursion
From village agrarian society to metropolis
In 1960s 40 GDP from ag vs 15 now
60 mil died in famines past 300 years ndash last in 1943
Green Revolution doubled grain yields since 1970
India still ranks poorly on Global Hunger Index
41
42
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
22
43
Frustrated Dreamers and Indiarsquos future ldquoWill dry up like a raisin in the sun or exploderdquo
Half under 25 but few will get good jobs in private sector
Rest may get government jobs below aspirations
In 2016 7 mil applied for 8300 entry-level public sector openings
A generation ago most were poor amp in ag with limited global access
Many young feel that they have no future
◼ India ndash ancient civilization in transition
◼ Kochi colonial port gateway to old India
◼ Where colonization started and ruled for 450 years before Indiarsquos 1947 independence
◼ Kochi prospered by trading and now is cosmopolitan area of 2 million people
◼ As India evolves to global leadership Kochirsquos cache of cultural diversity will play key role
Kochirsquos Cache Summary amp Conclusions
44Lecture 3 Sun Nov 11 6 pm Understanding Amazing Asia
43
44
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
23
45
3 Understanding Amazing Asia
Key Points1 World is strikingly different - globalized2 Big changes in Asia ndash rise of China now
India3 China Belt and Road pose global dilemma ndash
accept or resist4 Spice countries (and Aussies) may tilt
balance
JoeCoffeyoutlookcom
ldquoWe live in an age strikingly different than before 1980rdquo
Globalizationrsquos general features
◼ Single global market
◼ Intense interaction between states far apart
◼ Penetration into most cultures by global media
◼ Huge scale of migrations and diasporas
◼ Emergence of a single hyperpower- US
◼ Dramatic resurgence of China and India
46John Darwin After Tamerlane - The Rise and Fall of Global Empires 1400-2000 Bloomsbury
2008 pages 6-8
45
46
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
24
Globalization declined after WW I until 1970 rose after Cold War amp fell in Great Recession
47
WWI Deglobalization
End Cold War
Great Recession
World trade tripled after Cold War ended in 1990 China amp India
opening
48
China 20X
Country 1990 2017 change
EU 6138 16365 167
China 421 8023 1808
US 1828 4769 161
India 239 3498 1361
Russia 1105 1699 54
Japan 743 1582 113
World 18378 66399 261
Globalizations rising trade (PPP constant 2011 inl Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World
Development Indicators
dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU big trader
India 15X
World trade 3X
47
48
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
25
Gains of globalization concentrated at top bottom left out
49
Income group W Europe China India US
Bottom 50 17 13 11 3
Middle 40 37 43 23 33
Next 9 29 28 37 31
Top 1 17 15 29 33
Total 100 100 100 100
Share of Growth Captured 1980-2015
Source Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty India Income inequality
1922-2015 The distribution is of per adult pre-tax national incomeUS only 3Top 1 gain large in India amp US
China amp W Europe less skewed gains
50
Rivals China amp India military soar others flat or fall
Rivals roarCountry 1990 2017 change
China 43 405 838
India 50 215 333
Japan 36 46 30
US 488 556 14
Russia 153 155 1
EU 324 289 -11
World 1554 2537 63
Military Expenditure (PPP constant 2011 international Bil $)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU declines Russia flat
US still most but little increase
But world keeps rising
Rivals soar
Japan cautious growth
49
50
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
26
What does China want
◼ China Dream ambitious amp expansive role abroad -not ldquopeaceful riserdquo of Deng Xiaoping
◼ Reminder China is a big country and other countries are small countries and thats just a fact
◼ Claims in South China Sea Taiwan Ryukyu hellip
◼ Belt amp Road boost economy trade amp ldquodebt diplomacyrdquo
◼ Currency (Renminbi-RMB) wider acceptance
◼ Get rich and powerful ndash others recognize amp respect
51
China also wants to tour the world
52
Country 1996 2016 change
EU 271 445 64
China 5 135 2570
US 53 75 42
Russia 12 32 158
India 3 22 531
Japan 17 17 3
World 653 1459 123
Globalizations doubling tourism (millions of country departures of locals)
Downloaded Oct 2 2018 World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
EU the leader
Japan flat
Since fall of wall travelling more
China exceeds all but EU combined
Growth but still few tourist
51
52
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
27
53
Chinarsquos ldquostring of pearlsrdquo encircle India
Indian Ocean long neglected now becoming more strategic
US Military
Indiarsquos string of pearls
54
Chinarsquos BRI to connect Eurasia largest project in history but others worry about debt diplomacy and a new colonialism
53
54
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
28
55
2017 Military Strength
2017 GDP ($tril ppp)
China and India now world powers
2016 Power amp Influence
China amp India GDP gain others wane
56
Country 1990 2017
EU 25 16
US 20 15
Japan 8 4
Russia 6 3
China 4 18
India 3 7
World (Tril $) 47$ 116$
GDP PPP (constant 2011 international $)
World Powers Share of
World GDPUS share shrinks less almost catches EU
Japan amp Russia shares halved
China and India more than 2X
55
56
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
29
China amp Indiarsquos billions far exceed total of other powers
57
World population annual growth peaked in early 1970s at 21 but now only 12
Country 1990 2017 change
China 1135 1386 22
India 870 1339 54
EU 478 512 7
US 250 326 30
Russia 148 144 -3
Japan 124 127 3
World 5288 7530 42Downloaded Oct 2 2018 from World Development
Indicators dataworldbankorgproductswdi
Population of Major Powers (Millions)
EU Russia and Japan low growth
US growing thanks to immigration
India soon exceed China
21st century More about Indian Ocean than Pacific or Atlantic
◼ Indian Ocean 50 of shipping and 70 of oil
◼ 40 nations border ndash 13 worldrsquos population
◼ Heart of Islamic world - 90 of Islamists
◼ India overtaking Chinarsquos population and vibrant
◼ Is 21st century ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo
◼ Malacca Straits and freedom of seas big issues
58Source Admiral James Stavridis Sea Power - The History and Geopolitics of the Worlds Oceans 2017 page 119-121
57
58
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
30
Spice Route Human Development improved more than world average
59
Rank Country 1990 2017 Change
1990-2017
9 Singapore 072 093 30
57 Malaysia 064 080 25
76 Sri Lanka 062 077 23
83 Thailand 057 075 32
130 India 043 064 50
148 Myanmar 036 058 61
13 US 086 092 7
World 060 073 22
Human Development Index
Source 2018 Human Development Index (HDI)-
composite indicator of development for 189
countries based on health education and income
India amp Myanmar improve but still low
Singapore tops above US
60Much ink about Easternization
59
60
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
31
Still a Clash of Civilizations
East
◼ Communal
◼ Hierarchy
◼ Modesty
◼ Harmony
◼ Saving face
◼ Respect elders
◼ Time is life
◼ Being
West
◼ Individual
◼ Equality
◼ Achievement
◼ Winning
◼ Pride
◼ Respect competence
◼ Time is money
◼ Doing
61
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order 1996 book by Samuel
P Huntington in reaction to Francis Fukuyamas 1992 book The End of History
62
Can learn from Australia- worldrsquos most successful rich country
bullEconomy arguably most successful in Westbull27 years wo recessionbullGrowth 4X faster than USbullHas ore gas low debt
affordable welfare amp broad consensus hellipbullReformed health-care
and pensionsbull Luck of closeness to China
markets Economist Oct 27th 2018
And also should mention Canadarsquos success and the EU
61
62
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
32
Understanding Amazing Asia Summary and Conclusions
◼ Asia no longer passive now vibrant globalized amp assertive
◼ Chinarsquos Belt amp Road reshaping Eurasia (controversially)
◼ Now potentially ldquoThe Indian Centuryrdquo ndash a big deal
◼ India amp China the Asian giants ndash but smaller Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Malaysia amp Singapore may tip balance
◼ Singapore - that tiny red dot ndash offers a glimpse of the future maybe even of UK
◼ Donrsquot overlook awesome Aussies ndash best of West
634 Nov 14 Weds 10 am Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
64
Lecture 4 10 am Monday Nov 12 Sri Lankarsquos sizzle
63
64
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
33
65
Pearl of Indian Ocean ndash Resplendent Land
7 centuries ago vital civilization - whose vestiges World Heritage sites today
Golden tropical beaches and exotic fish amp plants
National Parks -elephants leopards hellip
Sigiriya - or Lion Rock a 700-foot granite rock and landscape garden centuries old
66
Sri Lankarsquos strategic location in India Ocean
Strategic location ndashcolonized by Chinese Indians Portuguese Dutch and British
Trade and silk water route connecting Asia and Europe
Historic - 8 UNESCO World Heritage sites
Recovering long civil war with Tamils
Emerging as modern SE Asia country
65
66
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
34
2500-Year History Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
500 BC Ancient kingdoms Anuradhapura 300 BC Buddhism from India 1411 Chinese Admiral Zheng He overthrows ruler 1505 Portuguese 1658 Dutch amp 1796 British colonize 1948 Independence after 400 years of colonization 1972 Renamed Buddhism made primary antagonizing
Tamils and state controlled economy 1997 Shift to more open market economy 2004 Dec 26 30000 killed by tsunami-earthquake 2006 US ends amp China aids with weapons amp loans 2009 26-year Tamil war ends after 100000 killed 2018 Political turmoil China takes over Hambantota Port
67
68
Profile
Half size FL but greater population
Tropical monsoon climate
Sinhalese 75 Tamil 15 Muslim 9
English fluency of 10 Religion - Buddhism
(official) 70 Hindu 13 Muslim 10 Catholic 6
67
68
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
35
69Adams Peak - The Garden of Eden
Once believed Garden of Eden
Fossilized footprint -claimed Adamrsquos
Mountain climbed by Alexander the Great
Now major shrine and hiking trail
Ancient city Sigiriya (377 BCndash1017)
70
UNESCO World Heritage
Anuradhapura Kingdom
Sigiriya rock fortress
Palace on top Buddhist
monastery until 14th century
69
70
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
36
71
Kandy Kingdom ndash Staved off colonizers for 300 years
Kandy Kingdomrsquos Temple of the Tooth
Last capital of kings amp World Heritage site
Arose during 16th and 17th centuries of European invasions
Switched alliances from Portuguese to Dutch in 1602 and finally succumbed to British in 1818
72
Westernized proud polite festive tea culture
Sri Lanka Culture -westernized English use polite festive
Proud of country Extended families and
villages ndash knows everybodyrsquos business
Humble and happy Tea key part of culture
71
72
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
37
73
Chinese teach Sri Lanka a lesson
74Religion in Sri Lanka - Hindu Temple
in Colombo
73
74
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
38
75Gangaramaya Buddhist Temple
Colombo
76Fort Colombo ndash much to see
75
76
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
39
77Yala National Park Hambantota
78
Tea (not Coffey) worldrsquos favorite drink ndashmajor part of economy amp culture
77
78
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
40
79
Sri Lanka - modern democratic emerging country in strategic location
80
Howrsquos Sri Lanka doing
Flawed democracy for 70 years but prosperity improving
Prosperity above India China and Thailand but below Malaysia and Singapore
Provides free education even higher education and doctorates
79
80
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
41
81
New President democratic reforms amp rebalanced toward India vs China
Suspicions about China scrutinized rising debt
Reformed judiciary and parliament fought corruption reduced powers and terms of president and increased media freedom
Modi India is Sri Lankas closest neighbor and friend Our destinies are interlinked
New Hambantota Port now a Chinese strategic sphere
82
$15 bil China built in 2010
Lacked business so handed over
Gives China outpost in busy shipping lane
Also gives China port in Indiarsquos sphere
81
82
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
42
83
Future of Sri Lanka Geopolitical Trilemma
US biggest market amp EU via Suez
Oil shipments from Gulf
Distant China ndasharms loans and port use
India-close largest supplier but Tamil tension
30000 ships pass annually
US military Diego Garcia
84
Surprising political changes Struggle of China vs India
Chronologybull Jan 2015 Sirisena
surprise defeat of Rajapaksa and appointed rival Wickremesinghe PM
bull Oct 2018 President fired PM closed parliament and appointed Rajapaksa
bull Nov 2018 Rajapaksa joins rival party
President Sirisena
PM WickremesingheFormer President Rajapaksa
83
84
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
43
◼ Sri Lanka ndash fascinating island strategically located historic cultural diversity and natural beauty
◼ Storied 2500-year history with advanced kingdoms production of spices pearls and tea
◼ Emerged from 4 centuries of colonialism and 3 decades of Tamil Tiger-Singhalese conflict
◼Now modern country but current political crises create uncertainty of China vs India balance
Summary amp Conclusions Sri Lankarsquos Sizzle
85Lecture 5 Sat Nov 17 2 pm Myanmarrsquos Marvels
5 Saturday 2 pm November 17
Myanmarrsquos marvels
86
The Marvels
bull Thousands of ancient Buddhist temples
bull Survived Invasions by Thailand India amp China colonized by British brutally occupied by Japan
bull Nobel Peace Prize for Aung San Suu Kyi amp rise from arrest to rule
85
86
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
44
Myanmarrsquos 3500-year history
87
◼ 1500 BC-849 Advanced peaceful civilizations
◼ 849-1287 Pagan Dynasty at Bagan
◼ 1752-1885 Konbaung lost Anglo-Burmese Wars
◼ 1886-1942 British rule
◼ 1942-48 WW II Japan devastated amp Independence
◼ 1962-89 General Ne Win coup ndash Socialism amp isolation
◼ 1989-2011 Military rule new capital intrsquol criticism
◼ 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize
◼ 2008 Cyclone Nargis138000 dead military limited aid
◼ 2010-17 Turn to democracy amp San Suu Kyi triumph
◼ 2018 Genocide of Rohingyas amp awards retracted
88
Yangon Myanmar (Rangoon Burma) ldquoGarden City of Eastrdquo
87
88
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
45
89
Myanmar Betwixt giants beauty and beast and ethnicities
90Myanmarrsquos ethnic conflict
89
90
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
46
91
Ancient capital of Bagan ndash in 13th century had 10000 temples amp 200000 people
92
Ananda Temple of Pagan Dynasty (849-1287) in Bagan ldquoWestminster Abby of Burmardquo
91
92
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
47
93Ancient Shwedagon Pagoda dominates Yangon Skyline
94
British exiling Last King of Burma to India 1885
British rule 1886-1948
93
94
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
48
95WW II Burma Campaign (1942-45) one of longest 200000 each Allied and Axis causalities and a million civilians
Rangoon and Burma Road
961962 Coup amp 8-8-88 Pro-democracy protest
GDP per capita growth
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Myanmar
95
96
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
49
97
After1948 independence Buddhist culture led by military
Saffron Revolution protests Aug-Oct 2007
98
Continued Military Rule Cyclone Disaster -unprecedented limits on aid (1989-2011)
May 3 2008 Cyclone Nargus
97
98
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
50
99
Suu Kyi ldquoThe Ladyrdquo Nobel Prize Media star
100
The Beauty and the Beast
99
100
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
51
Impressive Pagoda and Government Buildings in new capital Naypyidaw
101
102Tragic Muslim Rohingya Crisis ndash UN charges genocide
101
102
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
52
103
Myanmar- despite rocky relationship ndashdestined to be Chinarsquos energy conduit
37
1511
8
7
22
Myanmars top trade partners 2016
China
Thailand
Singapore
India
Japan
Other
104
Suu Kyi with Xi Jinping in 2017
Rohingya crisisrsquo dilemma Ignore or pressure Myanmar further into Chinarsquos orbit
103
104
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
53
Myanmar Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Advanced from colonization isolation and oppression
◼ 1st civilian government 60 years amp economy growing
◼ But future uncertain (The Beauty or the Beast)
◼ Will global support rising tourism amp pressure to end Rohingya crisis advance democracy and ease both militaryrsquos and Chinarsquos clutches
◼ Myanmarrsquos greatest marvel may not be the ancient temples but a victory of beauty over beast
105
Next lecture 6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18 Thailandrsquos treasures
Story of Thailand (Siam)
bull Size of France with more people
bull Never colonized never communist
bull Happy and stable despite 12 coups amp political split
bull ldquoStory of a people with an unusual capacity for social cohesion for resolving or evading conflict and for confronting unavoidable challenges creativelyrdquo Peter Church A Short History of South-East Asia
6 Sunday 2 pm Nov 18
Thailandrsquos TreasuresPast Present amp Prospects
105
106
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
54
10
7
Resourcefulness Thai cave rescue over 18 days as world watched fate of 12 youngsters and soccer coach trapped by flooding
Highlights of Thailandrsquos History
◼ 7th-13th centuries migration from China
◼ 1351-1767 Ayudhya kingdom ndash most successful
◼ 1767 Defeat by Burmese Chakri Kingdom still reigns
◼ 1851-68 Reign of (King amp I) Mongkut
◼ 1868-1910 Modernization under King
◼ 1910-32 Eclipse monarchyrsquos role
◼ 1932-92 Military domination (record 12 coups)
◼ 1992-2002 Moves toward democracy
◼ 2001-2014 Election of Thaksin amp sister both ousted
◼ 2016 King dies son succeeds still military rule
◼ 2018 Protest delayed elections maybe in May10
8
107
108
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
55
Phuket (poo-KET) port 500 miles south of Bangkok 109
110(New) Big Buddha monument overlooking Phuket
109
110
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
56
111Thailandrsquos history and importance
112
Kingdom of Ayudhya (Siam) 1351-1767 powerful until fell to Burmese twice now a World Heritage
111
112
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
57
11
3Wat Chalong Temple Phuket
114
Golden Buddha $300 million of gold revealed by accidental drop
113
114
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
58
11
5Wat Phra (Emerald Buddha) in Court of Grand Palace
King changes the cloak
116
Mongkut King of Siam who saved Thais
from colonization and starred King and I
115
116
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
59
117Japan occupied much of Asia 1930s to end WW II
Wat Arun backdrop of Thailandrsquos unique history118
Thai GDP per capita growth
117
118
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
60
11
9Military rule growth amp US support
President Eisenhower Thai King and spouses
120
Ousted PMs
Thaksin (2001-6)
and sister Yingluck
(2011-14) now
fugitives abroad
Democratic
Autocratic
119
120
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
61
121ldquoLand of Smilesrdquo Happy Thai psyche and culture
12
2Thaisrsquo ldquomanaged democracyrdquo (1973-to date)
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth who led the military coup of May 23 2014
121
122
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
62
123Current ldquoThainess campaign to return happinessrdquo
General Prayut prime minister campaigns for happiness
124Monarch mourned but military retains clout
123
124
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
63
125
Bangkok boomed business amp tourist favorite
Per capita GDP growth
Boom
126
Auto leading industry ndash ldquoDetroit of SE Asiardquo
125
126
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
64
127
2015-2070
India 737 1002 36
China 929 596 -36
Japan 71 44 -38
Thailand 44 26 -41
Malaysia 18 23 26
2015 2070
Aged 20-64 (millions)
Change
Area
Thailand ldquoOld Man of SE Asiardquo Thanks to Mr Condom
ldquoMr Condomrdquo
128
Long contested border with Myanmar
Malacca Straits Choke point
Shape of elephant ears and long trunk
Cruise port
Geopolitics of Thailand
1000 miles top to bottom
Communist region
127
128
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
65
12
9
Elections in May Military may finally allow elections after seizing power in 2014 amp breaking past promises
Thailand summary amp conclusions
◼ Never colonized reversed sides in WW II little ethnic or religious conflict avoided communism aligned with West boomed but repeated coups
◼ Impressive temples beaches forests rice hellip
◼ Bangkok attracts most tourists in world
◼ Progressed economically but not politically and progress slowed under recent military rule
◼ Challenges achieve democracy amp bolster aging economy
130 7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
129
130
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
66
The Multiplicitiesbull Colonizers ndash Portuguese Dutch and Britishbull Ethnics ndash ldquoMixed Fruitrdquo of Malay Chinese Indianshellipbull Economies ndash High tech and basic resourcesbull Lands ndash separated by 640 milesbull Modernized Muslims views ndash Official but tolerant
7 Weds 4 pm November 21
Malaysiarsquos multiplicities
Highlights of Malaysiarsquos History
◼ 1400 Malacca established and adopts Islam
◼ 1511 Portuguese take Malacca
◼ 1641 Dutch oust Portuguese
◼ 1824 British amp Dutch form Straits Settlements
◼ 1874 British extend control throughout Peninsula
◼ 1941-5 Japanese occupation WW II British return
◼ 1957 Independence but tension with ethnic Chinese
◼ 1965 Singapore expelled to reduce Chinese
◼ 1971 Under New Economic Policy grows rapidly
◼ 1981 Dr Mahathir elected reigns until 2003
◼ 2018 PM Najib resigns due to 1MDB scandal
◼ 2018 Dr Mahathir surprisingly returns 132
131
132
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
67
133Geopolitics of Malaysia
Disputes in South China Sea
Past Thai conflicts
Expelled Singapore in 1966
Malacca Strait choke point
Separated by 640 miles
Cruise ports George Town amp Koala Lumpur
Indonesia 8x population and 17000 islands
Allied with West despite its Communist neighbors of China Laos amp Vietnam
134Crucial Strait of Malacca Choke point for 25 world trade
133
134
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
68
135
Tin mining
Rubber
Early history Tin and rubber were world leaders in Malaysia
136
WW II Memorial
Occupied 1942-45 by Japan Chinese-Malay ethnic conflict settled and Malaysia established in 1963
135
136
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
69
137Malaysian multiculturalism ldquoRojakrdquo -A mixed fruit dessert
138
George Town Silicon Valley of East
George Town UNESCO World Heritage Site
George Town rdquoPearl of Orientrdquo
137
138
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
70
139Penang KekLok Si Largest Chinese temple in SE Asia
140
National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur
Adopted Islam in 15th Century ndash Muslim (61) official religion but secular state
139
140
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
71
141
Unique kingship - Elected on rotational basis from 9 hereditary state rulers
Sultan Muhammad V
Volatile but rapid and sustained Economic growth - 2nd to Singapore
142
-150
-100
-50
00
50
100
150
200
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
MALAYSIA GROWTH OF REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) IN 2011 US$
Malaysia Linear (Malaysia)
90500
28900
17800 1660013000
7200 6300
2017 Per Capita GDP
(PPP)
Commodity decline
Independence
Asian Crisis
Great recession
Malaysia 2nd
to Singapore but way ahead of rest
GDP grew 65 for 50 years
141
142
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
72
143
How did Malaysia achieve modernization
144
Kuala Lumpur ndash Capital and largest city
1884 Kuala Lumpur
143
144
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
73
145Rising economy but still trade amp commodity dependent
146
Kuala Lumpurrsquos Petronas Iconic Twin Towers - symbolic of Malaysias future
bull 88-floor worldrsquos tallest twin towers
bull Petronas ndash Govrsquot owned oil and gas co
bull Oil and gas 22 of govt revenue
bull Fortune Global 75th largest company
bull 2th most profitable company in world
bull Most profitable in Asia
145
146
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
74
147
Malaysia ndash risen to upper middle-income status thanks to location resources and economic policy
Singapore 91000
Brunei 84000
US 60000
Australia 47000
UK 43000
Malaysia 29000
Russia 25000
Mexico 18000
Thailand 17000
China 17000
Sri Lanka 12000
Indonesia 12000
Phillipines 10000
India 7000
Myanmar 6000
World 17000
GDPCapita ($ 2017 PPP)
Fully democratic after independence but marginally afterwards now in 1MDB scandal
148POLITY score ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to ndash 10 (strongly autocratic)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Malaysia - Polity Score
1969 ethnic violence of Malays vs Chinese military control
1957 Independence
Scandals and Chinese projects
147
148
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
75
149
Malaysiarsquos scandal-hit former prime minister Najib Razak and wife
150
Dr Mahathir (at 93) surprising return -tougher on Chinese projects and 1MBD scandal
Dr Mahathir amp Chinarsquos Premier
ndash Beijing Aug 2018
149
150
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
76
151
30
80 81 79
29
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore Japan
Proportion holding positive view about impact of China on own country
66
51
64
4452
62
Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Japan
saying democracy is always preferable to any other type of
government
Polar views of China
Not whole-hearted views of democracy
SE Asia trying to build economies global influence and independence
151
152
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
77
Malaysia Summary amp Conclusions
◼ Not easy to characterize ndash Multiple ethnics religions industries hellip
◼ Islamic state reconciled with Western modernity
◼ Mix of skyscrapers and rainforests - now regrouping from political scandal and debt
◼ Straddles crucial Malacca Straits
◼ Bottom-line in growing SE Asia prosperous reforming politically prospects encouraging
153
7 Thursday 4 pm Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
8 Thursday Nov 22 Singapore -Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
bull Fame and fortune far beyond expected of a small island of 6 million only 42 by 22 miles
bull One of worldrsquos largest ports and most strategic choke points - Malacca Straits
bull A model for Asiarsquos future soaring skyscrapers spectacular public parks scrupulously clean unsurpassed prosperity and democratic
153
154
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
78
The Almost Nearly Perfect Country
155
Country
( in ranks)
GDP (PPP)
per capita
(187)
Happiness
(143)
Corruption
Perceptions
(176)
PISA
(70)
Economic
Freedom
(180)
Human
Develop
(185)
Prosperity
(149)
Singapore 3 28 7 1 2 5 17
Australia 18 12 13 14 5 2 10
Canada 22 4 9 7 9 10 8
China 79 90 79 10 110 90 90
India 122 131 79 na 130 131 100
UK 26 14 10 15 8 16 9
US 11 19 18 25 18 10 18
Highlights of Singaporersquos History
◼ 1819 Stamford Raffles founds British trading post
◼ 1826-67 Singapore Malacca and Penang become British Straits Settlements
◼ 1942-4 WW II Japanese occupation
◼ 1946 Becomes separate British crown colony
◼ 1963 Joins with Malaya to form Malaysia
◼ 1965 Ejected from Malaysia LKY goes alone
◼ 1965 Asian Tiger of rapid economic growth
◼ 1990 LKY bows out influential til 2015 death
◼ 2004 Lee Hsien Loong LKYrsquos son becomes PM
◼ 2018 Most prosperous country balancing East and West as global trading system crumbles 156
155
156
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
79
157From fishing village to British Colony
Raffles Hotel
158Source wikipediaorgwikiLee_Kuan_Yewgt
Took a city on a sandbar from 3rd world to 1st world in a generation
157
158
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
80
Might seem Western but on closer look Chinese culture is present and widespread 159
160
75 (westernized) ethnic Chinese but with rise of China Mandarin becoming more important
Buddha Tooth Relic Temple
159
160
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
81
161
Japan conquered Singapore and all its neighbors in WW II
162
Singaporersquos defeat the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British historyrdquo - Churchill
161
162
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
82
163Unimpressive Singapore in 1974 ndash then globalized
164
Singaporersquos economy soared even higher than other 3 Asian Tigers (14-fold increase in 40 years)
163
164
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
83
165
Singaporersquos open but paternalistic government
Lee Hsien son of LKY greets Indiarsquos Modi
166
Highest (90) home (apartment) ownership in world
165
166
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
84
167
Singapore Long an Asian entrepocirct -intermediary center of trade and transshipment
168
Singapore today Highly prosperous
167
168
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
85
169
Singapore transitioning from entrepocirct to an industrial amp financial services-based economy
170
Marina Bay Sands- worldrsquos most expensive casino
169
170
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
86
Singapore is more than trade commerce and high-rises - has zoo parks gardens and even Supertrees
171
Gardens by the Bay
172
ldquoA little nation that canrdquo But in disparate ASEAN amp sandwiched by global giants China and India
171
172
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
87
173
Singapore not only prosperous but has best test scores ndash but now downplaying exams
From exam-taking machines to creative life-long learning
174
Good show ndash but the comedic role-reversal of America and Singapore is exaggerated
173
174
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
88
epilogue
Ironic role reversal Brexit British become ldquoa giant Atlantic Singaporerdquo 175
Theresa May UK Prime Minister
176
Future of Singapore ndash ldquoprisoner of geographyrdquo Balancing act bridging East amp West
175
176
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
89
China-US war prospects grim
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants The reason is hellip a deadly pattern hellipthat results when a rising power challenges a ruling one hellipOver the past 500 years these conditions have occurred sixteen times War broke out in twelve of them Today as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ldquogreat againrdquo the seventeenth case looks grim Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific a trade conflict cyberattack or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war
177
Summary amp Conclusions Singapore Little Red Dot thatrsquos hard to top
◼ Small size but mighty strategically
◼ One of most successful countries
◼ Rose as an open beckoning trading and service economy
◼ Now balancing East and West vulnerable to rising nationalism and trade wars
◼ Yet donrsquot bet against ldquoLittle nation that canrdquo
178Thanks - hope to see you on Azamara again
177
178
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