BritainThinks | Private and Confidential britainthinks.com Learning from Brexit and Trump to help you succeed in a changed world June 2017
BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
britainthinks.com
Learning from Brexit and Trump to help you succeed in a changed world
June 2017
2BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
Here’s a recap of what happened on both sides of the pond…
The votes in both countries revealed a generation gap: the older you were, the more likely you were to vote Trump or for Brexit
3BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
A recap of what happened
45%
44%
50%
55%
53%
53%
42%
37%
65+
45-64
30-44
18-29
Clinton Neither Trump
40%
43%
44%
52%
62%
73%
60%
57%
56%
48%
38%
27%
65+
55-64
45-54
35-44
25-34
18-24
Remain Leave
But don’t forget that roughly 2 in 5 under-45s voted Trump in the US, and 25-34 year olds for Brexit in the UK
Rural and small communities tended to vote Brexit and Trump, with big cities tending to vote for Clinton and to Remain in the EU
4BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
A recap of what happened
59%
45%
34%
35%
50%
62%
City over 50,000
Suburbs
Small city or rural
Clinton Neither Trump
Generally, those with fewer qualifications preferred Brexit in the UK, and Trump in the US
5BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
A recap of what happened
58%
49%
43%
45%
37%
45%
52%
51%
Postgrad study
College graduate
Some college/associate degree
High school or less
Clinton Neither Trump
68%
48%
50%
30%
32%
52%
50%
70%
Degree
Higher below degree
A level
GCSE or lower
Remain Leave
This difference was (even) more pronounced in the UK than in the US
White voters were more likely to support Brexit and Trump, with support for both much lower among BAMEs
6BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
A recap of what happened
56%
65%
65%
88%
37%
37%
29%
29%
8%
58%
Other
Asian
Hispanic
Black
White
Clinton Neither Trump
And attitudinally, Trump and Brexit voters were united in feeling more pessimistic than optimistic about the future of their country
7BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
A recap of what happened
54%
31%
59%
39%
63%
38%
About the same
Worse than life today
Better than life today
Clinton Neither Trump
Life for future Americans will be…
25%
90%
69%
8%
Off track
Right direction
Trajectory of the country…
NET agreement that…
2.8million non-voters swung it
But the two stories differ on turnout – and particularly on the mobilisation of disenchanted, apolitical non-voters
8BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
A recap of what happened
Democrat
Republican
9BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
The two results – and the campaigns that preceded them – offer some big
watch outs for communicators…• Some are new slants on old issues• Some highlight things we already knew but had perhaps forgotten• Some of them feel new and very different to what’s gone before
10BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#1 Check your bias
We were applying and projecting our own values both before the votes, when we chose to hear what we wanted to hear…
11BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#1 Check your bias
Economists projecting their own uncertainty onto their predictions:
The analysis & interpretation of the opinion polls in the run-up to the Referendum:
“In the end, we couldn’t predict public
confidence at all. Because the vast majority of
economists thought that Brexit was a bad idea
… they put their own views onto the population
as a whole and thought the public would tighten
their belts and spend less and that’s why you
got the forecasts for an immediate downturn.”
Chris Giles, Financial Times on More or Less
78%
27%22%
63%
0%
10%
Phone polls Online polls
Remain leads Leave leads Ties
…and used the arguments that would convince ‘us’ not ‘them’
12BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#1 Check your bias
REMAIN CAMPAIGN:
“Trading is about stuff,
but we don’t make
goods any more, our
industry is in decline.”
“I don’t see how it
helps me – I’m not a
trader, I don’t have
stocks and shares.”
‘NORMAL’ VOTER:
Starting from a place of limited understanding of not just trade, but also
business and the economy
“The EU buys over 50 per
cent of UK exports: 54% of
goods and 40% of services”
…and used the arguments that would convince ‘us’ not ‘them’
13BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#1 Check your bias
DEMOCRAT RESPONSE TO TRUMP’S COMMENTS ON WOMEN:
TRUMP MOVING ON THE CONVERSATION:
THE MISSED OPPORTUNITY?
Family?
Tradition?
Gentlemanliness?
But we’re still doing it now, with an ongoing assumption that voters will ‘see sense’ eventually
14BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#1 Check your bias
How many in the Westminster ‘bubble’ are describing Brexit:
How voters – including many Remainers – are describing Brexit:
"When I heard we
had ‘gone Brexit’ I felt
like England had won
the World Cup!"
68%of the British public think that we should go ahead with Brexit
YouGov, Nov 2016
15BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#2 Get yourself a “change [back]” message
Both successful campaigns of 2016 were headed by a big, capacious message
16BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message
“We’ve got to stop this madness,
cut all that red tape and
regulation and take the reigns!”
“Mass immigration is still
hopelessly out of control
and set to get worse if we
remain inside the EU”
Which were about ‘them’, not ‘you’
17BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message
Which were about ‘them’, not ‘you’
18BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message
“‘Go Global’ [was] a firm favourite for
many years among a subset of MPs and
Farage’s inner circle (Leave.EU adopted
this as its first slogan) and a total loser
with the public.”Dominic Cummings’s Blog
And which speak to a desire to change – while not pitching everyone into an uncertain future
19BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#2 Get yourself a ‘change [back]’ message
Both speak to a sense of nostalgia for the past……but also a sense of direction and where they want to go, alluding to
specific values and policies
20BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#3 Start talking values (not just value)
Both Trump and Brexit cut across many traditional socio economic divides
21BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#3 Start talking values (not just value)
Some leavers are ‘left behind’• Nothing to lose• Economically
and culturally challenged by immigration
But a great deal aren’t ‘left
behind’• Driven by desire
for greater sovereignty
• Driven by practical ‘cutting red tape’ argument
• Culturally challenged by immigration
But it does seem that there are some really big values which unite some previously divergent groups
22BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#3 Start talking values (not just value)
Eric Kaufmanm for the Fabian Society
And for the first time, the Trump and EU votes have given these heterogeneous groups clear tribes to belong to
23BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#3 Start talking values (not just value)
“The Trump rally was the most fun I have had in years.
Trump would say. ‘What am I going to build?’ and we
would say ‘A wall!’… It was fun to lighten up, to cheer
along with everyone else, just like back in high school,
when we would cheer that our teams were definitely
going to win, even when they were bad”
And an opportunity to define themselves against what they aren’t…Whether against the liberal, metropolitan elites of New York or Washington, London or
Leeds or the ‘left behind’ of Sunderland or Scranton
The more we talk about these divides as if they’re monolithic, the more likely they are to become totemic and embedded
24BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#3 Start talking values (not just value)
But it also presents a risk…
“We will defend the Britain we love…(and of course we’ll oppose the expansion of
Heathrow too)”
This may present some ‘quick win’ opportunities
That by continually describing these divides we are only serving to
reinforce them and make them ‘real’ -and overlook the real complexities
25BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#4 Embrace Super Selectivism
Online Selection
A lot of people are talking about the ‘echo chamber’
26BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#4 Embrace Super Selectivism
Confirmation Bias
Super Selectivism+ =
“The human understanding when it has once adopted
an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as
being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to
support and agree with it.”Francis Bacon, 1620
The “filter bubble” works in (at least) two ways
27BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#4 Embrace Super Selectivism
Hard-Wired Selection• Personalised search &
recommendation algorithms
• Targeted advertising & messaging
• Timeline editing
Social Selection• Social networking as
news source• Recommendations from
friends• Network building based
on preference-proximity
3xLess likely to
see liberal content
10%Less exposure to conservative news sources
Gentzkow & Shapiro: 2011
#4 Embrace Super Selectivism
The filter bubble isn’t all bad
It makes it easier than ever to speak to – and energise – people who are already with you
29BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#4 Embrace Super Selectivism
BUT it makes it very hard to understand the actual extent of your support, or your opponents
If you want to reach new audiences, you need to think about new messages, channels and messengers
30BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
#4 Embrace Super Selectivism
Start from where people are, not where you wish they were
31BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
Check your bias#1The two results – and the campaigns that preceded them –offer some big watch outs for communicators…
Get yourself a “change [back]” message#2Start talking values (not just value)#3Embrace Super Selectivism#4
BritainThinks | Private and Confidential
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