Leading in difficult and uncertain times: The Battle of Britain, Stephen Carver, 2015

Leading in

Difficult & Uncertain Times The Battle of Britain

Stephen Carver FAPM School of Management

Cranfield University

“Eagles

may soar high

but…….

weasels don’t get sucked

into jet engines”

Leading in Difficult & Uncertain Times

Don’t want to

do

Want to do

Planned Unplanned

Strategic Projects &

Programmes

Spontaneous Adventures

Compliance Projects &

Programmes

Crisis Events

Leading in Difficult & Uncertain Times

68% Project Failure Rate

Most projects and programmes are doomed to fail....

Flying Analogy

Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger III

Chaos Complex or

Complicated?

UK Airways System

PPM – Maturity Levels

1

2

3

4

5

Ad Hoc Disorganised, accidental success

Minimal Some process, inconsistent success

Compliant Standardised, more predictable

Competitive Controlled and measured processes, results more in line with plans

World Class Continuous process improvement , success is normal

1

2

3

4

5

Competitive: provides source of competitive advantage, focused, metrics determine areas for improvement, supports business strategy.

Compliant: follows industry-accepted norms, improvements sporadic, process-focused, cost of failure significant, little strategic contribution

Minimal: tasked with ‘not messing up’, some use of standards, reactive, high cost of failure, negative strategic contribution.

Ad hoc: unreliable delivery, very high cost of failure, strongly negative strategic contribution

World-class: redefines delivery in the industry, automatically improving, very hard to imitate by competitors, drives business strategy.

Limit of process based approach

PPM – Strategic Advantage Strategic Contribution

Structural Dimension

Dynamic Dimension

Low

High

High Low

Complex

Dynamic

Agile Project

Programme

Two Dimensions of Complexity

The Battle of Britain

1940

Huge number of great planes Huge numbers of pilots

Lots of experience Innovative tactics

Morale high On a roll

Limited number of pilots Limited experience Traditional tactics

Morale low Defeatist

1940

Large number of rubbish planes

Complex/Dynamic More with less

Hugh Dowding Head of RAF Fighter Command

Fighter Command System

Deals with

Structural

Complexity

Deals with

Dynamic

Complexity

Hugh Dowding Head of Fighter Command

Keith Park

Leigh Mallory

Approach

Engage in pure fighter raids

Engage bomber raids after they bomb

Big Wing standing patrols

Shoot down lots of planes

Pursue stragglers over the sea

Pilots are a individualistic risk taking heroes

Douglas Bader

Approach

Do not engage pure fighter raids

Engage bomber raids before they bomb

Scramble early – hit and run

Aim to break up formations

Do not pursue stragglers over the sea

Pilots are part of an integrated team

The Luftwaffe: strategically incoherent

• Bomb Ports

• Bomb Factories

• Bomb RAF

Goering

• Bomb London

Hitler expects to terrorise and cow the people of this mighty

city… Little does he know the spirit of the British nation, or the tough

fibre of the Londoners.

The Blitz

Now Park could really do his stuff …

So What?

• Have a clear vision/strategy • Do more with less - focus • Turn on the radar! • Know where you/the “enemy” are • Have simple/flexible/agile systems • Bend/make the rules • Communicate and integrate... • Lead/empower/trust • Embrace risk & complexity • But...

“There is nothing more difficult to arrange, more doubtful of success and more

dangerous to carry through, than initiating change.

The change leader makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old order and only lukewarm support is forthcoming from those who would prosper under the

new.

Leadership of Change

Structural Dimension

Dynamic

Low

High

High Low

Complex

Dynamic

Agile Project

Programme

Socio Political Complexity

“If ever any one man won the Battle of Britain,

Keith Park did.

I don’t believe it is recognised how much

this one man, with his leadership, his calm judgment and his skill, did to save not only

this country, but the world.”

Chief of the Royal Air Force

February 1947

Lord Tedder

Thank you!