le010z185i le100z200i from -,K - : from + from -,K - : from + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components.

le010z185i le010z185i

le100z200i le100z200i

from -,K-: from +

from -,K-: from +

qeresdiscoh

qeresdiscoh

qeresdiscoh

qeresdiscoh

Different components to antineutrino spectrum

le010z185i

All qeresdiscoh

qeresdiscoh

From le010z185i MC to determine fraction of antineutrino spectrum corresponding to each component

component/all

Use these ratios to determine the components for the le100z200i configuration as well.

from -,K- from -,K-

from + from +

pME

pME LE

LE

MCMC with syst

MCMC with syst

MCMC with syst

MCMC with syst

Example: qel and res components increased by 30%, pME-POT=1e19

Example: qel and res components increased by 30%, pME-POT=1e19

Fluctuate the pME histograms to create fake data set (which now includes these systematics) and fit in usual way:

But original + spectra got modified by systematics, so parLE and parME are not the right parameters to look at to find out systematic error.

Consider sucLE and sucME parameters, defined by:

Evidently, when no systematics are added then parLE=sucLE and parME=sucME

sucLE =#antineutrinos from + predicted by fit, LE

#antineutrinos from + in fake data, LE

sucME =#antineutrinos from + predicted by fit, pME

#antineutrinos from + in fake data, pME

For qel and res both increased by 30%, with 1e19

POT of pME-POT

~6.5% systematic error in our

antineutrinos from + in LE

measurement

qel and res components increased by 30%, different pME-POT

2.5e19 POT 5e19 POT

7.5e19 POT 1e20 POT

qel and res components decreased by 30%, pME-POT = 1e19

from -,K- from -,K-

from + from +

pME

pME LE

LE

MCMC with syst

qel and res components decreased by 30%, different pME-POT

2.5e19 POT 5e19 POT

7.5e19 POT 1e20 POT