Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado CAM T341-

Lawrence BujaNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado


CAM T341- Jim Hack

Climate Modeling in a Changed WorldNew Directions and Requirements for Climate

following the breakthrough IPCC AR4



“Science exists to serve human welfare. It’s wonderful to have the opportunity given us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity.”

Walter Orr Roberts







NCAR

NCAR: Climate Models & IPCC AR4

A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past &

Geoengineering

Looking Forward: New Models & IPCC AR5

+ Data: Building the Earth System Grid

+ Social Science @ NCAR

NCAR Scientific facilities

2. Supercomputer/Data/Network/Support

3. Large-scale National Scientific Development Environment

National Science Foundation FFRDC- 900 Staff, 500 Scientists/Engineers- 4 Boulder-area campuses- Governed by > 70 universities

1. Advanced Observational Facilities

NCARTra

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

Initial Conditions

Boundary Conditions

Weather vs Climate

Weather Prediction

ClimatePrediction

ClimateChange

Trenberth

The Earth Climate System

Timeline of Climate Model Development

ChemistryClimate

ChemistryClimate

BioGeoChem

BioGeoChem

Software EngineeringSoftware Engineering

Climate VariabilityClimate Variability

Polar ClimatePolar

ClimateLand ModelLand Model

PaleoClimate PaleoClimate

Ocean Model Ocean Model

CCSM Working GroupsCCSM Working GroupsCCSM Working GroupsCCSM Working Groups DevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopment

ApplicationApplication ApplicationApplication

WACCMWACCMAtm

Model Atm

Model

Climate ChangeClimate Change

CCSM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy

CAM T341- Jim Hack

What does a climate model look like?

Climate of the last Millennium

Caspar AmmannNCAR/CGD

Stage 2. Historical: 1870-2000 run using time-evolving, observed, Solar, GHG, Volcanoes, O3

1870

2000

2. Historical

Stage 3. Future Scenarios: 4 2000-2100 IPCC Scenarios from end of historical run

Commit 2100

B1 2100

A1B 2100

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3. Future Scenarios

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Stage 1. 1870 control run: 1000 years with constant 1870 forcing: Solar, GHG, Volcanic Sulfate, O3

1. 1870 control

a b c d e

18701870 1870 1870

Probablistic Climate Simulations

NCAR

NSF/DOE IPCC ProjectNCAR, ORNL, NERSC, ES

6-Year Timeline2002: Climate Model/Data-systems development2003: Climate Model Control Simulations2004: IPCC Historical and Future Simulations2005: Data Postprocessing & Analysis2006: Scientific Synthesis2007: Publication

Observations of the

Earths Climate System

Simulations Past, Present

Future Climate States

Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

150 0.0450.012100 0.0740.018

50 0.1280.02625 0.1770.052

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,20

06, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,20

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Period Rate

Years /decade

Trenberth

2030: A Warmer and Wetter World

Temperature at 2030

Averages and Extremes

Precipitation at 2030

Averages and Extremes

Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice

ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean

• Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease

• Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years.

“Abrupt”transition

Simulation of Future Climate

Marika Holland, NCAR

Ammann et al.

2006

If anything, we are being much too conservative!

Is the IPCC being too Alarmist?

Raupach et al., 2007Canadell et al., 2007

NCAR



Geoengineering




But, should we really be worried?

Lessons from the Past

If we continue on the “Business as usual” scenario, significant changes begin to be observed at 4x CO2

Global Annual Mean Energy Budget

Annual Mean Surface Temperature

Permian coupled model run for2700 years to new equilibrium state

Forcing of 10X increase in CO2and Permian paleogeography

Ts> = 8°C

CCSM3 T31X3

Kiehl and Shields

NCARWignall(2005)

Clear

Some

None

Evidence

Inefficient mixing seen in Permian ocean: Indicative of anoxia, consistent with large extinction event

Geoengineering strategies

• Space mirrors, (Wood, Angel)

• High Altitude Sulphur injections

• Seeding stratocumulus clouds to brighten clouds

• Sequestration of CO2

• Iron Fertilization, ...

Phil Rasch NCAR

We are not proposing that geo-engineering be carried out! We are proposing that the implications should be carefully explored.

Title slide

From Church, White, & Arblaster

Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, June 15, 1991. Gases and solids injected 20 km into the stratosphere.

NCAR

Add sulfate at a rate of 0.5 Pinatubo/yr

1650 Little Ice Age

1: IPCC A2

2: 0.3%

3: 0.3-0.9%

2: 0.3%

3: 0.3-0.9%

4. Commitment

1. A2

Maintaining A2 TS at commitment level by reducing solar irradiance

Question: These geoengineering approaches both involve “dimming” the sun. What is the impact on global food production of a 1% decrease in incoming solar radiation

NCAR



Geoengineering




Climate Change Epochs

Attribute sources of historical warming

Project range of possible non-mitigated future warming from SRES scenarios

Quantify Climate Change Commitment

• Project adaptation needs under various mitigation scenarios

• Time-evolving regional climate change on short and long-term timeframes • Quantify carbon cycle feedbacks

Before IPCCAR4 After

Conclusion: With the wide public acceptance of the IPCC AR4 findings, the climate science community is now facing the new challenge of quantifying time evolving regional climate change that human societies will have to adapt to under several possible mitigation scenarios, as well as addressing the size of carbon cycle feedbacks with more comprehensive Earth System Models

CCSP 2.1a Mitigation Simulations

IPCC AR4 Modeling Centers & AR5 Timeline

• Aerosols– Direct and indirect effects

• Chemistry – Radiative and air quality issues

• Dynamic Vegetation– Regrowth following disturbance

• Carbon & Nitrogen Cycle– Ocean & land biogeochemistry – Anthropogenic (transient) land use/cover

• Land Ice Sheets– Sea level Rise & Abrupt Climate change

New CCSM Components for IPCC AR5

IPCC AR5 (2013) ScenariosThe current model development timeline anticipates CCSM4 in 2009 in time to participate in the next set of internationally coordinated mitigation scenario experiments in 2009-2010 for a 2013 IPCC AR5 publication date

1. IPCC “Classic + ” Mitigation Scenarios: • 100 & 300-year climate change simulations• Medium resolution • Core “required” + optional Tier 1 and Tier 2 simulations• Carbon, Nitrogen & Biogeochemical cycles• 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from IAM community• Quantify investment return of mitigation strategies

2. New Climate Change “Adaptation” Simulations: • Short-term (30-year) climate predictions • Single scenario • High-resolution (0.5° or 0.25° resolution)• Designed for impacts, policy and decision making communities.

RCPs in perspective – CO2 emissionsRCPs in perspective – CO2 emissions

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Selected scenarios (min/max)

( 671ppm, +3.7°, NIES )

( 900ppm, +4.5°, IIASA )

( 550ppm, +---°, PNNL )

( 424ppm, <2°, MNP )( 370ppm, <2°, MNP )

From Moss et al., 2008

HPC dimensions of Climate Prediction

Data Assimilation

New Science

Spatial Resolution

Ensemble size

Timescale

Better Science(parameterization → explicit model)(new processes/interactions

not previously included)

(simulate finer details, regions & transients)

(quantify statistical properties of simulation) (decadal prediction/ initial value forecasts)

(Length of simulations * time step)

Lawrence Buja (NCAR) / Tim Palmer (ECMWF)

Spatial Resolution (x*y*z)

Ensemble size

Timescale (Years*timestep)

TodayTerascale

5

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Climate Model

70

102010

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1.4°160km

0.2°

22kmAMR

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20min

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Code Rewrite

Cost Multiplier

Data Assimilation

ESM+multiscale GCRMNew Science Better Science

HPC dimensions of Climate Prediction

?

Lawrence Buja (NCAR)

10

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T42 2.8°

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Lawrence Buja (NCAR)

GlobalGeneral Atm/Ocn

Circulation

Continental Scale Flow

Carbon Cycle + BGC Spinups

RegionalMJO/MLC

Convergence

IPCC AR3

1998

IPCC AR4

2004 4TF

Sub-RegionalHurricanes

IPCC AR52010 500TF

CCSM Grand Challenge

2010 1PF

Source: GSFC

CCSM at ¼ ° ATM 1/10°OCN

Courtesy Dr. David Bader, PCMDI/LLNL/DOE

NCAR

North Atlantic and North American Regional Climate Changes

The goal is to simulate the effects of climate change on precipitation across the intermountain West States and tropical cyclones, with a focus on the Gulf of Mexico.

• 36, 12 and 4 km domains nested into CCSM

• 1996-2005, then time slices out to 2050

• Multi-member ensembles for each period

• Dedicated time on NCAR IBM Power 6 (Bluefire) since July:

24 nodes (~20% of total number of processors) 36 (12) km simulations use 128 (256) processors per job Will use 3.9M processor hours through 11/08 ~300 Tb of data (to date); 450 Tb total (including earlier runs)

Jim Hurrell / Greg Holland

NCAR

Improving Predictions of Regional Changes in Weather and Climate

The Nested Regional Climate Model

IPCC (2007) IPCC (2013) NRCM

High Resolution Climate Modeling

Jim Hurrell / Greg Holland

NCAR

Importance of Resolution

18 storms

25 storms

Hurrell / Holland

NCAR



Geoengineering




Dean Williams: Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies

• Petabyte-scale data volumes• Globally federated sites• “Virtual Datasets” created through subsetting and aggregation• Metadata-based search and discovery• Bulk data access• Web-based and analysis tool access• Increased flexibility and robustness

ESG GoalsESG Goals Current ESG SitesCurrent ESG Sites

http://www.earthsystemgrid.orghttp://www.earthsystemgrid.orghttp://www-pcmdi.llnl.govhttp://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov

Earth System Grid

Lessons Learned

1. Observational data is very similar to model data

Time

Val

ue

Obs data

Model data

2. Observational data is very different from model data

Lessons Learned

3. Don’t let scientists build their data management and distribution systems on their own!

Building robust, useful data systems requires close collaboration between the two communities!

…but don’t let the CS folks do it alone, either

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Newman.jpg

4. Effective Data Distribution Systems Require Sustained Investment

Home Grown Data Systems

Community Data Portal

Earth System Grid

• Initially Cheap• $$$ in long term• Limited Scale

• Modest Investment• Agile and Right-sized

for Many Projects• Institutional Scale

• Large Investment• Infrastructure for

Large Projects

• Spans Institutions

Lessons Learned

20,000 Climate Scientists 4,000,000 GIS Licenses

Briefing on ResultsBriefing on Results::USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Polar Bear Fish & Wildlife Service Polar Bear Endangered Species Listing Decision:Endangered Species Listing Decision:

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

See slide notes for this topic

NCAR



Geoengineering




Image courtesy of Canada DND

After IPCC AR4, the direction of our climate change research program dramatically changed.

WAS: Is anthropogenic climate change occurring?

NOW: What will be the impact of anthropogenic climatechange on coupled human and natural systems?

• Magnitude and speed?• Direct and indirect impacts?• Adaptation vs mitigation • What are our options & limits?

Addressing these new, much more complex, questions requires• new approaches & priorities,• new science capabilities, collaborators & partners

Science capabilities a direct function of computational capabilities• Weather and Climate Science, Applications and Services

1.Assessment Methods, Products, and Tools• New methods and tools for assessing the impacts of

climate and weather • Climate scenario development, statistical and GIS methods,

simulation tools.

2.Climate-Ecosystem-Human Interactions• Complex interactions among earth’s climate, ecosystem,

and inhabitants. • Future impacts of climate on human & natural ecosystems

3.Use of Scientific Information in Decision Processes• Bridge gap between earth-system science and the needs of

decision makers• scientific information use for policy and management

decisions when information is uncertain or incomplete.

4.Vulnerability, Adaptation, Thresholds, and Resilience• Enhancing society's capacity to develop more resilient,

sustainable systems, • Thresholds, coping ranges & adaptation strategies for

social and resource systems

•Integrated Science and Regional Applications• Regional applications integrate fundamental research from

the four other themes.

Impediments cont’d

2. Uniqueness of mission relative to NCAR Physical Sciences

– The bulk of NCAR is based in physical science while ISSE’s societal mission is quite different.

– NCAR traditional physical sciences does not currently meet the needs of integrative research for the benefit of society.

NCAR Physical SciencesISSE Social andEnvironmentalSciences

“Valley of Death”

Approaches / Languages / Mental Models

Solution: This is the nature of interdisciplinary work, The gap is closed by communication, bridging projects and developing trust relationships

- Frontier areas focused on filling in the Valley of Death

The Challenge…Maintaining healthy national and local economies, in a rapidly changing world of increasing population and GNP, all accessing a finite resource base.

It’s all about sustainability of Energy, Food & Water…

While maintaining your critical Human systems - Transportation, Agriculture, Health & Quality of life…

Without disrupting your critical natural ecosystems…

National Center for Atmospheric ResearchMore than Meteorologists….

WritersCommunicatorsEducators

Solar Physicists

Statisticians - Risk analysis

Mathematicians

Software Engineers

Network Engineers

GIS/Data Management

Social Scientists

-Adaptation-Mitigation-Impacts-Health

Gov’t AffairsPolicy Law

ChemistsEngineers:Chemical, Electrical, Mechanical…

Sea-Ice Hydrology

Economists

EnergyBiologyLand UseObservations

Simulations

Field Programs

Climate OceansWeather

Lawrence Buja [email protected]

Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado CAM T341-

Documents

ncar slide

earth climate system

shields slide

co2 slide

climate models ipcc

colorado climate modeling

breakthrough ipcc ar4

ncar ncar