Laurie Volk -- The Implications of Changing Demographics on Urbanism in New England

New New England

The implications of changing demographics on urbanism

in New England

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.


Two New Englands


LowerNew England

More Ethnically DiverseYoungerHigher Percentage of 1- and 2-Person HouseholdsLower Percentage of Homeownership

ConnecticutRhode IslandMassachusetts

Less Ethnically DiverseOlderLower Percentage of 1- and 2-Person HouseholdsHigher Percentage of Homeownership

MaineNew HampshireVermont


UpperNew England


Maine

Lower Educational AttainmentLower Median IncomeLower Median Housing Value


Maine


New Hampshire


Vermont


Massachusetts


Rhode Island


Connecticut

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.Connec&cut Rhode Island Massachuse2s New Hampshire Vermont Maine

Younger Singles & Couples

Tradi&onal & Non-‐Tradi&onal Families

Empty-‐Nesters & Re&rees

65%60%

40% 40%

46% 48%

35%

26%

36%

29%

23%

17%

25%

18%17%

23%24%28%

A Decade After the Crash


Credit Still Remains Tight��(both builders ��and buyers) ��


DemographicsContinue to Change

We continue to be

a nation of justone- or two-person households.


Married couples with children:21.8% of US households


in a marketdominated by singles and couples.


Nation’s housing stockis designed for families

Nationally,nearly two-thirds

of all homebuyers aresingles or couples.


Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

8 - 12 percent of home purchasesmade by single

men.


Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

16 - 24 percent of home purchases

made by single women.


30 - 32 percent of home purchasesmade by couples.

35 - 37 percent of home purchasesmade by traditional and non-traditional families


The Great Convergence: 2004 to 2024

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Millions

20 to 29

50 to 59 Basic demographic support for walkable neighborhoods


Baby Boomers75.4 Million1946-1964

The Millennials 87 Million1977-1996

The Millennialswill dominate the nation

for decades.



-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

MillennialsGen XBoomers

Mostly single.Highly social.

Ethnically and culturally diverse.Early/unsettled careers.

More likely to be renters.Very mobile.

Green.

The Millennials

17% of Millennialsare foreign-born.

Over 44% of Millennials are minority race or ethnic group.

The majority “minority”


Millennial Women.

Women earn 57% of bachelor’s degrees.

63% of master’s degrees.53% of doctorates.


Age at First Marriage

1960

Men 22.8

Women 20.3

1980

24.7

22.0

2014

29.3

27.0

Impact on Age-Related Economic Activities Birth Years: 1977-1996

Ages Today: 20-39

Entered Kindergarten: 1982-2001 Elementary schoolsEnter High School: 1991-2010 High schools

Enter College: 1995-2014 Dormitories Enter Job Market?: 1997-2021 Apartments/condos

Married with Children??: 2003-2036 Detached Houses??Empty nesting: 2024-2060 Apts./Condos/TH/Detached

Retirement: 2047-2066 Apartments/Condos; CCRCs, etc.Death: 2057-2086 Mortuaries, crematoria, cemeteries


First-time buyersstill below normal 40% share.


Only 32% in 2015

Millennial Home OwnershipShare of 18- to 34-year-olds that own.


Millennials loaded with student debt.$1,300,000,000,000

11.5% delinquent or in default.


How Millennials get around.


Licensed Drivers ��aged 20 to 24

1983 201491% 77%


Hard Lofts

Millennials and Housing.

Soft Lofts

Mini Lofts

Micro Lofts

What about their stuff?


Long-term slow growth economy,due to lower spending on stuff?


Boomers trying to get rid of stuff.

Millennials don’t even want stuff.

Millennials can’t afford stuff.

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.Connec&cut Rhode Island Massachuse2s New Hampshire Vermont Maine



Empty-‐Nesters & Re&rees

65%60%

40% 40%

46% 48%

35%

26%

36%

29%

23%

17%

25%

18%17%

23%24%28%

New Haven Connec&cut Providence Rhode Island Somerville Massachuse2s



Empty-‐Nesters & Re&rees 86%

4%

40% 40%46%

10%

35%

26%

36%

73%

7%

20%25%

13%12%

75%

24%28%

Laurie Volk -- The Implications of Changing Demographics on Urbanism in New England

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