Ethnic diversity, density and their consequences on political participation: An agent-based simulation Laurence Lessard-Phillips, Institute for Social Change, University of Manchester Nick Crossley, Department of Sociology, University of Manchester Bruce Edmonds, Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan University Ed Fieldhouse, Institute for Social Change, University of Manchester Yaojun Li, Institute for Social Change, University of Manchester Ruth Meyer, Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan University Nick Shryane, Institute for Social Change, University of Manchester
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Laurence Lessard-Phillips, Institute for Social Change, University of Manchester
Ethnic diversity, density and their consequences on political participation: An agent-based simulation. Laurence Lessard-Phillips, Institute for Social Change, University of Manchester Nick Crossley, Department of Sociology, University of Manchester - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Ethnic diversity, density and their consequences on political participation:
An agent-based simulation
Laurence Lessard-Phillips, Institute for Social Change, University of ManchesterNick Crossley, Department of Sociology, University of Manchester
Bruce Edmonds, Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityEd Fieldhouse, Institute for Social Change, University of Manchester
Yaojun Li, Institute for Social Change, University of ManchesterRuth Meyer, Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan University
Nick Shryane, Institute for Social Change, University of Manchester
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Background• Ethnic minorities are (slowly) becoming a bigger part of the
• Engagement of ethnic minorities in ‘conventional politics’, and its main determinants, is an interesting topic of enquiry– Ethnic minorities becoming increasingly important segment of
the electorate• Especially given their location, density and diversity in the UK
– Link to socio-political integration/incorporation and other related issues (representation, etc.)
– UK case peculiar given voting right of Commonwealth citizens
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Theorising the role of ethnic diversity and density on turnout
• Ethnic diversity (based on Fieldhouse and Cutts, 2008)– Group conflict theory: diversity leading to higher levels of
conflict and hence mobilisation of the population, leading to higher levels of turnout• Can also have depressing effect on turnout
– Economic resources theory: highly diverse communities have weaker mobilising effects and higher barriers to participation due to lack of resources
– Racial diversity thesis: high levels of diversity display more inequalities and hence lower participation
– Social capital theory (?): link between diversity and levels of interpersonal/generalised trust
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Theorising the role of ethnic diversity and density on turnout
• Ethnic density (based on Fieldhouse and Cutts, 2008)– Social capital theory: group concentration leading to higher
levels of bonding capital, connectedness and networks, which generate higher levels of political mobilisation and hence turnout
– Ethnic community model: higher levels of group consciousness/awareness leading to higher levels of turnout• May also cause alienation
– Relative deprivation theory: higher levels of deprivation may lead to increased levels of alienation and, in turn, to decreased turnout
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Political participation of ethnic minorities in the UK: Existing evidence
• Research-based evidence has found divergence in the turnout rates of various ethnic minority groups, with (some) stabilisation of turnout rates over time– Asian turnout > than turnout for non-Asians
• Differentiation within Asian groups– Black Caribbean and African groups: lower levels amongst ethnic minority
groups– Yet more recent evidence seems to contradict these claims
• Somehow difficult to disentangle ethnic group effects from other effects such as age, socio-economic status, etc.
• No clear agreement as to the impact of density on ethnic minority turnout– Data/methods issues
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But…
• We are still a long way from understanding this issue without integrating the varied accounts that exist into a unified model that captures the complexity of processes that might be at play– Linking the micro to the macro
• One way in which you can try to do this is via agent-based simulation– Underutilised method informed by
data/evidence/theory in the social sciences that can link multiple and multi-faceted influential processes
Agent-based simulation
What is it?• Computational description of a given
process– Not usually analytically tractable
• More context-dependent…– … but assumptions are much less
drastic• Detail of unfolding processes
accessible– more criticisable (including by non-
experts)• Used to explore inherent possibilities• Validatable by data, opinion,
narrative ...– Often very complex
What happens?• Entities in simulation are
decided up• Behavioural rules for each agent
specified– e.g. sets of rules like: if this has
happened then do this• Repeatedly evaluated in parallel
to see what happens• Outcomes are inspected,
graphed, pictured, measured and interpreted in different ways
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Dilemmas using this approach
KISS (Keep it Simple, Stupid)• Models should be simple
enough to understand and check (rigour)
• May omit critical aspects of the system of interest (lack of relevance)
• Strong inferences possible about within-model processes
• Weak mapping to the thing being modelled
KIDS (Keep it Descriptive, Stupid) • Models should capture the
critical aspects of social interaction (relevance)
• They may be too complex to understand and thoroughly check (lack of rigour)
• Weak inferences about within-model processes
• Clear mapping to the thing being modelled
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Agent-based simulation model of voting behaviour: ‘the’ model
Inpu
tIndividual characteristics• Demographic, psychologicalIndividual behavioursMemory of eventsExternal shocks
• Results do not predict, but reveal possible emergent outcomes• More importantly
– Raises new questions and gaps in knowledge– An “in vitro” exploration of some of the complex relationships
between factors that can occur– Suggests new hypotheses (or refinements on old hypotheses) in an
explicit and demonstrated form
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RESULTS FROM PRELIMINARY “PROOF OF CONCEPT” VERSION
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Early, “Proof of Concept” Version of the Model
• Simulation model still being developed • Validation stage yet to begin in earnest• Demonstrated with 4 different
scenarios• Only difference in minorities are (a)
those inherent in the data we used to initialise the model and (b) the homophily effect of agents tending to make social links with similar age/ethnicity/politics
• Model was run 25 times• Average turnout in minority and