LAUNCH OF 2021 EDITION OF OECD ICIO AND TIVA DATABASES

MEASURING INTERCONNECTED

ECONOMIES:

LAUNCH OF 2021 EDITION OF

OECD ICIO AND TIVA

DATABASES

17 November 2021

Andy Wyckoff, Director, OECD Directorate for Science,

Technology and Innovation

1990s

• Harmonised national I-O tables• 10 countries

2000s

• Domestic and import tables

• IOT ind x ind (1993 SNA/ISIC Rev.3)

2013-

2017

• ICIO (1993 SNA/ISIC Rev.3)

• Time series ICIOs

2018-

• ICIO (2008 SNA/ISIC Rev.4)

• 64 countries

2

A brief history of Input-Output at OECD

OECD Main new applications

Technology diffusion (embodied R&D) CO2 embodied in trade

Co2 embodied in trade, Vertical specialization, Jobs in foreign demand

Trade in Value Added (TiVA) indicators, Trade in Employment, Carbon footprints

Projection modelsMNE activities in trade

Building on accumulated knowledge: academia (Leontief et al); experts from national, regional and international organisations (SNA recommendations etc.)

• Long annual time-series of ICIO tables and indicators1995 to 2018

• 66 countries + RoW + region groups– All 38 OECD countries, all G20, all European

Union and now, all ASEAN countries (new: Myanmar and Lao PDR)

• 45 industries (previously 36) + industry aggregates

• Underlying format– 2008 SNA (with 2015 SNA benchmark revisions)

– ISIC Rev.4 based industry breakdown

3

… and now: ICIO and TiVA 2021

0.0

50.0

100.0

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300.0

ICIO databases, total number of cells,

millions

New industries to be published in TiVA database

TiVA 2021 TiVA 2018

Description

Agriculture, hunting, forestry

Fishing

Chemical and chemical products

Pharmaceuticals

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply

Water supply; sewerage, waste management and

remediation activities

Land transport and transport via pipelines

Water transport

Air transport

Warehousing and support activities for transportation

Postal and courier activities

Professional, scientific and technical activities

Administrative and support services

Arts, entertainment and recreation

Other service activities

Arts, entertainment, recreation and other service

activities

Electricity, gas, water supply, sewerage, waste and

remediation services

Transportation and storage

Other business sector services

Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing

Chemicals and pharmaceutical products

TRADE IN VALUE ADDED

6

The classic GVC indicator – backward linkages

Foreign value added share of gross exports, 1995-2018

Steady rise from 1995 to 2008.

Slight increase since dip in 2016, but in 2018, backward linkages, in general, lower than last peak of 2011-2012.

China: peak 2004-2007 (24%). Since 2011 (post crisis peak), decline from 22% to 18%

EU27: (as single economy) steady rise from 9% in mid-1990s to 16% in recent years. Fall from 2011-2012 peak of 17%.

USA: After pre- and post-crisis peaks of 12%-13%, by 2018, Foreign VA in exports, at 9%, back to shares of late 1990s.

ASEAN: (as single economy): Slight rise since 2010 30% to 32%

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35.0

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95

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Backward linkages in GVCs

China

EU27

USA

ASEAN

World (unwtd av.)

7

A demand perspective

Share of domestic value added meeting foreign final demand, 1995-2018

China: peak 2006-2007 (25%). Now below 15%, the share in 1995. Increase in output meeting domestic demand.

EU27: (as single economy) steady rise from 10.5% in mid-1990s to 17% in recent years.

USA: Relatively stable in recent years: 9%-10%. Above lows of about 7% in 2002-03.

ASEAN: (as single economy): After peak of 39% in 1998 (Asian crisis) steady fall to about 30% in recent years.

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ASEAN

EU27

China

USA

%

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Motor vehicles – meeting demand at home and abroad

Motor vehicle industry value added (blue) and other industries’ value added meeting final demand for Motor vehicles (orange), as a % of total economy value added, 2018

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12.0 Other industries' value added meeting foreignfinal demand for Motor vehicles

Other industries' value added meeting domesticfinal demand for Motor vehicles

Motor vehicle industry value added meetingforeign final demand

Motor vehicle industry value added meetingdomestic final demand

THE VERSATILITY OF THE ICIO: BEYOND TIVA

• Analyses of GVCs (Industry and Trade)

• Numerous Trade policy papers (Trade)

• Trade in Employment (Industry and Trade)

• Embodied CO2 and material flows (Environment)

• Role of MNEs (Industry and Trade)

• Agriculture and GVCs (Agriculture)

• Steel and GVCs (Steel)

• Shipbuilding (Shipbuilding)

• Tourism and GVCs (Tourism)

• Digital economy (Digital Economy Policy)

• Responsible Business Conduct (Foreign Investment)

• OECD Country Studies (Economics)

• OECD Skills outlook (Education)

• Role of SMEs in GVCs (SMEs and Trade)10

Multiple uses of ICIO, TiVA and I-O analysis at OECD

11

Embodied CO2 emissions in trade

Source: Estimation based on OECD’s Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Database (2021) and IEA (2021): http://oe.cd/io-co2

CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, demand-based and production-based, OECD v. non-OECD

Updated indicators now available 1995-2018

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Gt

CO

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Demand-based (OECD)

Production-based (OECD)

Demand-based (non-OECD)

Production-based (non-OECD)

Net-exports of embodied CO2

by non-OECD countries

Net-imports of embodied CO2by OECD countries

12

Embodied CO2 emissions in trade

Source: Estimation based on OECD’s Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Database (2021) and IEA (2021)

CO2 emissions from fuel combustion per capita, 2018, demand-based v. production-based, tonnes CO2

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oduc

tion

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USA EU27 Worldtotal

China India

1995

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OECD Worldtotal

Non-OECD

1995

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Trade in Employment (TiM)

OECD Employment sustained by foreign final demand, by region, as a % of total employment, 2018

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EUSW

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EXFR

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CH

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TUR

NO

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US

JPN

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LU

SA

North America EU27 East and S.E. Asia Rest of the World 1995

Database update, 1995-2018, coming soon

Analytical AMNE databaseForeign affiliates’ reliance on domestic sourcing

14

Source: OECD Analytical AMNE databasehttp:/oe.cd/gvc-mne

International sourcing more orientated towards manufactured goods

Domestic sourcing more orientated towards commercial services

Database update, 1995-2018, coming soon

15

Other ICIO-based contributions to discussions on meeting

the SDGs ...

Joint work: ILO, IOM, OECD and UNICEF under “Alliance 8.7”

Launched at Paris Peace Forum 12 November 2019 by OECD Secretary General

Preliminary estimates. A key impact was advocacy of the potentialof using I-O analyses to inform policy makers on issues related to Child Labour and GVCs e.g. Child labour“hidden” in upstream in domestic supply chains.

WHAT NEXT?

• Post launch:

– Nowcasts to 2019 ...

– user feedback improvements etc.

– Country notes

• Additional countries

– 5 African countries: Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Nigeria and Senegal (OECD/WTO/UNECA Africa-TiVA project)

– Jordan (project with UNIDO)

• Alignment with other MRIO/TiVA initiatives

– ECLAC: LAC IOTs; Eurostat: Figaro; ADB: Asian SUTs/IOTs17

ICIO and TiVA, 2022 and beyond

• Methodology better aligned with the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) (e.g. Eurostat and OECD Air Emissions Accounts)

• Inclusion of other GHGs:

– Fugitive emissions from fuel

– Industrial processes (CO2):

minerals, chemicals, metals, etc.

– Emissions from Industrial processes and Agriculture;

– Addition of methane.

18

GHG emissions embodied in final demand - Next steps

Source: Secretariat estimate based on UNFCCC and EDGAR

19

Employment and GVCs, gender dimension

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Male Female Male Female Male Female

Total Industry Business services

USA

Foreign final demandExports

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Male Female Male Female Male Female

Total Industry Business services

EU

Foreign final demand

Exports

Employment embodied in exports and in foreign demand as a % of total employment, by gender, 2018

In OECD ICIO tables: cross-border trade and non-resident household expenditure are separated insights into international tourism and GVCs

Contribution of non-resident household expenditure to total exports, 2015, %

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Tourism and GVCs

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IRL

BR

A

CH

N

Direct domestic VA Indirect domestic VA Foreign VA 2005 (Total)

Insights into origin of value added in non-resident household purchases of final goods and services e.g. How much comes from upstream (indirect) domestic sources and foreign sources?

OECD Tourism working paper: “Providing new OECD evidence on tourism trade in value added” (2019)

Releases of new ICIO-based updated databases

• TiVA core indicators (3-dims) √

• ICIO tables (http://oe.cd/icio) √

• TiVA VA origin cubes (4-dims) √

• Harmonised national IOTs (http://oe.cd/i-o) √

• Trade in Embodied CO2 (TECO2) indicators (http://oe.cd/io-co2) √

Updates coming soon

• Trade in Employment (TiM) indicators (http://oe.cd/io-emp)

• Analytical AMNE database (http://oe.cd/gvc-mne)

In the pipeline

• Trade in Employment by workforce characteristics (age, gender, skills)

• Direct purchases by non-residents (Tourism and GVCs)

• Trade in Embodied Greenhouse Gases i.e. beyond CO2 indicators

THANK YOUAND THANKS TO THE ICIO TEAM

Email : [email protected]

http://oe.cd/tivahttp://oe.cd/icio