Latino Profile of Los Angeles City and County, California, and the United States Prepared for the Angelinos for a Better Future Initiative of Southwest.

Latino Profile of Los Angeles City and County, California, and the

United StatesPrepared for the Angelinos for a Better Future Initiative of

Southwest Voter Registration Education Project by the William C. Velasquez Institute Presentation

Antonio GonzalezPresident

William C. Velasquez Institute and Southwest Voter Registration Education Project

2914 N. Main StLos Angeles, CA 91723

Phone: 323-222-2217 (WCVI)Phone: 323-343-9299 (SVREP)

Email: [email protected]: [email protected]

Los Angeles City and County Detailed Information

Los Angeles County – Population by Majority Race/Ethnicity

Los Angeles County – Latino Registration Percentage

Los Angeles City – Population by Majority Race/Ethnicity

Los Angeles City – Latino Registration Percentage

Registration by Los Angeles County, City, and City Council District

Los Angeles Region

Total Reg Latino Reg Latino Reg %

County 3,948,813 1,026,189 25.99%

City 1,436,351 338,570 23.57%

CD 1 51,796 28,133 54.32%

CD 2 113,987 17,944 15.74%

CD 3 115,949 15,569 13.43%

CD 4 112,410 13,080 11.64%

CD 5 152,275 7,036 4.62%

CD 6 64,329 29,820 46.36%

CD 7 65,397 35,885 54.87%

CD 8 101,935 18,477 18.13%

CD 9 63,868 24,269 38.00%

CD 10 85,530 17,707 20.70%

CD 11 143,155 13,364 9.34%

CD 12 123,547 17,618 14.26%

CD 13 70,226 24,633 35.08%

CD 14 80,990 44,649 55.13%

CD 15 90,957 30,386 33.41%

Data Source: William C. Velasquez Institute; Registration Current as of January 2008

Selected 2001 and 2005 Election Results for Los Angeles City by City Council District

Data Source: Los Angeles City Clerk. Note: 2001 and 2005 City Council Districts Different. Major Differences between CD 6 (new Latino Seat), 2, 5, and 11. All others similar.

Los Angeles Region

2005 Mayor - Villaraigosa

2005 - Villaraigosa %

2005 Mayor - Hahn

2001 Mayor - Villaraigosa

2001 Villaraigosa %

2001Mayor - Hahn

2001 City Atty - Delgadillo

2001 Delgadillo %

2001 City Atty - Feuer

City 289,116 58.63% 203,968 264,611 46.47% 304,791 284,337 52.39% 258,428

CD 1 15,564 75.18% 5,137 16,193 73.28% 5,905 14,496 69.07% 6,490

CD 2 19,917 54.50% 16,627 17,091 45.22% 20,705 20,032 55.00% 16,390

CD 3 20,545 52.69% 18,449 16,802 37.74% 27,717 20,440 47.71% 22,401

CD 4 19,421 57.62% 14,286 20,557 51.89% 19,062 16,066 42.73% 21,529

CD 5 25,516 53.95% 21,777 24,473 45.12% 29,769 16,294 31.04% 36,201

CD 6 15,343 67.71% 7,316 23,128 45.84% 27,323 22,070 46.09% 25,811

CD 7 16,792 70.49% 7,029 17,268 66.24% 8,799 17,868 71.49% 7,127

CD 8 20,333 60.43% 13,316 9,622 24.98% 28,896 23,364 64.94% 12,615

CD 9 12,558 67.37% 6,083 10,100 45.98% 11,864 14,327 70.18% 6,087

CD 10 18,598 60.56% 12,114 12,497 37.80% 20,563 19,150 61.67% 11,902

CD 11 30,627 56.97% 23,129 23,038 43.31% 30,152 19,536 38.46% 31,262

CD 12 20,963 48.88% 21,921 16,686 32.58% 34,531 24,438 49.60% 24,836

CD 13 16,099 66.29% 8,188 18,947 63.03% 11,111 15,194 53.49% 13,211

CD 14 25,090 73.62% 8,991 23,330 71.27% 9,405 21,906 69.61% 9,565

CD 15 11,750 37.47% 19,605 14,879 43.93% 18,989 19,156 59.57% 13,001

Upcoming Election Information

Super Tuesday Latino Vote in Democratic Presidential Primary

Latino Vote by Selected State and Candidate Percentage

StateTotal State

Respondents

Latino % of Total State

Respondents

Estimated Latino

Respondents**

Latino Respondent

Margin of Error %***

Clinton % Obama %

Arizona 1218 18% 219 6.62% 55% 41%

California 1879 29% 545 4.20% 69% 29%

Connecticut 1178 6% 71 11.63% 43% 53%

Illinois 1181 17% 201 6.92% 49% 50%

Massachusetts 1365 5% 68 11.86% 56% 36%

Nevada* 1098 15% 165 7.64% 64% 26%

New Jersey 1298 10% 130 8.60% 73% 26%

New Mexico 1181 34% 402 4.89% 56% 36%

New York 1393 12% 167 7.58% 68% 30%

*Note: Nevada Results of an Entrance Poll**Latino N Estimate Based on Percentage of Total Respondents***Margin of Error Based on Estimated Latino Respondent SizeOriginal Data Source: CNN Exit Poll. Percentages may not add up to 100% when all categories or candidates are not shown. Numbers based on preliminary exit poll results.How the poll was conducted: The National Election Pool Exit Poll was conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. Members of the pool are ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox and NBC. The polling places are a stratified probability sample of the state. In addition, absentee and/or early voters were interviewed in a pre-election telephone poll; results from the phone poll were combined with results from the exit poll. The combination reflects approximately the correct proportion of absentee voters and election day voters.

Latino Vote in Democratic Presidential Primary

California Total and Latino Votes Cast in 2000, 2004, and 2008 Presidential Primaries

California Total and Latino Votes Cast in 2000, 2004, and 2008 Presidential Primaries

March 2000 Primary

March 2004 Primary

February 2008

Primary*

Total Change from 2004-

2008

Percentage Change from 2004-2008

Total Votes Cast for Democratic Presidential Candidates

3,272,029 3,107,629 4,259,031 1,151,402 +37%

Latino Votes Cast for Democratic Presidential Candidates

556,245(17% of Total

Dem)

498,474 (16% of Total

Dem)

1,235,119 (29% of Total

Dem)

736,645 +148%

Total Votes Cast for Republican Presidential Candidates

4,153,702 2,216,351 2,443,153 226,802 +10%

Latino Votes Cast for Republican Presidential Candidates

332,296(8 % of Total Rep)

127,662 (5.8% of Total

Rep)

317,610(13% of Total

Rep)

189,948 +149%

Data Sources: Total Votes Cast for Democrats and Republicans taken from California Secretary of State website. Latino Votes cast for President calculated by applying various exit poll figures from CNN (2008), NY Times (2000, 2004), and WCVI (2004) to the Secretary of State totals. *2008 Total Votes Cast current as of Monday, February 11, 2008. 2008 Latino Vote calculated from Media Exit Poll percentages applied to California Secretary of State Totals.

California Latino Voter Polling Trends for Democratic Presidential Primary

California Latino Voter Polling Trends for Democratic Presidential Primary, in Chronological Order

Poll (Date- Author) Clinton % Obama %

4/13/2007 - Field Poll 59% 18%

8/17/2007 - Field Poll 63% 14%

10/26/07 - Field Poll 52% 16%

1/13/2008 - Los Angeles Times/CNN/Politico 61% 19%

1/22/2008 - Field Poll 59% 19%

1/26/2008 - Los Angeles Times/CNN/Politico 59% 19%

2/5/08-Exit Poll 69% 29%

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Battleground States

2008 U.S. Senate Races - CloseCongressional Quarterly Ratings

2004 Registration, Turnout, and Latino Potentialby Close Senate Race

State 2004 Total Reg

2004 Total Turnout

2004 Total Turnout %

2004 Latino Reg

2004 Latino Turnout

2004 Latino Share of Reg %

2004 Latino Turnout %

2004 Latino Share of Total Turnout

Potential Unregistered Latino Voters in 2004

Potential Unregistered Latino Voters in 2004 %

Colorado

2,307,000

2,097,000 90.90%

204,000

165,000 8.8% 80.9% 7.9% 157,000 43.49%

Louisiana

2,413,000

2,067,000 85.66%

19,000

16,000 0.8% 84.2% 0.8% 11,000 36.67%

Maine

824,000

736,000 89.32% 7,000

7,000 0.8% 100.0% 1.0% 2,000 22.22%

Minnesota

3,080,000

2,887,000 93.73%

53,000

49,000 1.7% 92.5% 1.7% 20,000 27.40%

New Hampshire

716,000

677,000 94.55%

5,000

5,000 0.7% 100.0% 0.7% 4,000 44.44%

North Carolina

4,292,000

3,639,000 84.79%

44,000

27,000 1.0% 61.4% 0.7% 65,000 59.63%

South Dakota

425,000

378,000 88.94%

4,000

4,000 0.9% 100.0% 1.1% 2,000 33.33%

Texas

9,681,000

7,950,000 82.12%

2,170,000

1,533,000 22.4% 70.6% 19.3% 1,518,000 41.16%

TOTAL 23,738,000 20,431,000 86.07% 2,506,000 1,806,000 10.56% 72.07% 8.40% 1,779,000 41.52%

2006 U.S. House Election ResultsParty by Margin of Victory - All

2006 U.S. House Election ResultsParty by Margin of Victory – Close Elections

Close Margins of Victory in 2006Less Than 5%

• Democrats1. Connecticut 2 - Joe Courtney - 0.0%2. Georgia 12 - John Barrow - 0.6%3. Pennsylvania 8 - Patrick J. Murphy - 0.6%4. Georgia 8 - Jim Marshall - 1.0%5. Florida 16 - Tim Mahoney - 1.8%6. Wisconsin 8 - Steve Kagen - 2.1%7. Kentucky 3 - John Yarmuth - 2.4%8. New York 19 - John Hall - 2.4%9. New Hampshire 1 - Carol Shea-Porter - 2.7%10. Iowa 2 - Dave Loebsack - 2.8%11. Kansas 2 - Nancy Boyda - 3.5%12. Florida 22 - Ron Klein - 3.8%13. Pennsylvania 4 - Jason Altmire - 3.8%14. Arizona 5 - Harry E. Mitchell - 4.0%15. Indiana 9 - Baron P. Hill - 4.5%

• Republicans1. Florida 13 - Vern Buchanan - 0.2%2. North Carolina 8 - Robin Hayes - 0.2%3. New Mexico 1 - Heather A. Wilson - 0.4%4. Ohio 15 - Deborah Pryce - 0.5%5. Wyoming AL - Barbara Cubin - 0.5%6. Ohio 2 - Jean Schmidt - 1.1%7. New Jersey 7 - Mike Ferguson - 1.4%8. Pennsylvania 6 - Jim Gerlach - 1.4%9. New York 25 - James T. Walsh - 1.6%10. Nevada 3 - Jon Porter - 1.9%11. Colorado 4 - Marilyn Musgrave - 2.5%12. Illinois 6 - Peter Roskam - 2.8%13. Virginia 2 - Thelma Drake - 2.8%14. New York 29 - John R. "Randy" Kuhl Jr. -

3.0%15. Washington 8 - Dave Reichert - 3.0%16. California 4 - John T. Doolittle - 3.1%17. Connecticut 4 - Christopher Shays - 3.4%18. Michigan 7 - Tim Walberg - 3.9%19. New York 26 - Thomas M. Reynolds - 4.0%20. Ohio 1 - Steve Chabot - 4.4%

2010 Gubernatorial Elections

2010 U.S. Senate Elections

California Demographic Trends

Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004.

Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive.

Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations.

California Population Comparison by Ethnic Group, 2000-2050

Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TOTAL

ANGLO

HISPANIC

ASIAN/ PACIFIC ISLANDER

BLACK

MULTIRACE

AMERICAN INDIAN

Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004.

Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive.

Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations.

Due to aggregation of Hispanic figures, percentages do not equal 100%.

California Population Shares by Ethnic Group, 2000-2050

Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

WHITE NON-LATINO SHARE

BLACK SHARE

HISPANIC SHARE

API SHARE

AMERICAN INDIAN SHARE

MULTIRACE SHARE

Growth of Total California Population by Ethnic Group, (2000-2050)

Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004.

Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive.

Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations.Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute

-5,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

LATINO

GROWTH

ASIAN/ PACIFIC

ISLANDER

GROWTH

BLACK GROWTH AMERICAN

INDIAN

GROWTH

MULTIRACE

GROWTH

WHITE GROWTH

2040- 2050

2030- 2040

2020- 2030

2010- 2020

2000- 2010

Composition of Total population of California by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050, May 2004

Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004.

Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive.

Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations.Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MINORITY WHITE/ MULTIRACE

California Total and Latino Registration Comparison by Assembly District 2004-2007

Select National Latino Demographic and Election

Information

Geographic Area NL WhiteNL

White %

Hispanic or Latino Origin

Latino %

Combined Minority

Combined Minority %

TOTAL

United States 202,266,112 66.43% 45,018,772 14.79%102,213,01

1 33.57% 304,479,123

.California 16,327,354 43.64% 13,261,796 35.45% 21,086,660 56.36% 37,414,014

.Texas 11,548,254 48.53% 8,438,918 35.46% 12,247,073 51.47% 23,795,327

.Florida 11,250,590 61.37% 3,689,256 20.12% 7,081,594 38.63% 18,332,184

.New York 11,834,704 60.35% 3,214,581 16.39% 7,776,499 39.65% 19,611,203

.Illinois 8,484,786 65.35% 1,904,819 14.67% 4,497,905 34.65% 12,982,691

.Arizona 3,751,781 59.80% 1,825,481 29.10% 2,521,603 40.20% 6,273,384

.New Jersey 5,528,714 62.51% 1,388,767 15.70% 3,315,326 37.49% 8,844,040

.Colorado 3,475,201 71.70% 950,895 19.62% 1,371,417 28.30% 4,846,618

.New Mexico 857,001 43.11% 870,007 43.76% 1,131,157 56.89% 1,988,158

.Georgia 5,598,308 59.07% 713,829 7.53% 3,878,965 40.93% 9,477,273

Table 5: Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007. (1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race.

Top 10 Most Latino States in 2006 by Latino Population Total

Geographic Area NL WhiteNL White

%

Hispanic or Latino Origin

Latino %Combined Minority

Combined Minority %

TOTAL

United States 202,266,112 66.43% 45,018,772 14.79% 102,213,011 33.57% 304,479,123

.New Mexico 857,001 43.11% 870,007 43.76% 1,131,157 56.89% 1,988,158

.Texas 11,548,254 48.53% 8,438,918 35.46% 12,247,073 51.47% 23,795,327

.California 16,327,354 43.64% 13,261,796 35.45% 21,086,660 56.36% 37,414,014

.Arizona 3,751,781 59.80% 1,825,481 29.10% 2,521,603 40.20% 6,273,384

.Nevada 1,516,134 59.11% 620,385 24.19% 1,048,724 40.89% 2,564,858

.Florida 11,250,590 61.37% 3,689,256 20.12% 7,081,594 38.63% 18,332,184

.Colorado 3,475,201 71.70% 950,895 19.62% 1,371,417 28.30% 4,846,618

.New York 11,834,704 60.35% 3,214,581 16.39% 7,776,499 39.65% 19,611,203

.New Jersey 5,528,714 62.51% 1,388,767 15.70% 3,315,326 37.49% 8,844,040

.Illinois 8,484,786 65.35% 1,904,819 14.67% 4,497,905 34.65% 12,982,691

Table 5: Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007. (1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race.

Top 10 Most Latino States in 2006 by Latino Population Percent

2006 United States Latino Population by State

Data Source: Table 5 - Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007.

2006 United States Latino Population Percent by State

Data Source: Table 5 - Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007.

2004 United States Latino Unregistered Citizen Voting Age Population by State

Data Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.

2004 United States Latino Registration Percent by State

Data Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.

Latino Voter Registration, National Elections, 1972-2004 +2008

Projection

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Latino VR Latino VR Change

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.

Latino Votes Cast,National Elections, 1972-2004 +2008

Projection

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Latino VC Latino VC Change

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.

Latino Elected Officials by State: Largest Latino States – Gains Since 1996

State 1996 2007 Change

Texas 1,687 2,170 +28.6%

California 693 1,163 +67.8%

New Mexico 623 657 +5.5%

Arizona 298 354 +18.8%

Colorado 161 160 -0.6%

Florida 72 131 +81.9%

New Jersey 33 103 +212.1%

Illinois 41 97 +136.5%

New York 40 64 +60%

Other States 95 230 +142.1%

TOTAL 3,786 5,129 +37%

Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund

Latino Elected Officials by Level of Office in 2007

Federal: 26

Statewide Officials: 6

State Legislators: 238

County Officials: 512

Municipal Officials: 1,640

Judicial/Law Enforcement Officials: 685

School Board/Education Officials: 1,847

Special District Officials: 175

Latino Elected Officials by State: Largest Latino States

Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund

Latino Elected Officials by State: New Latino Gains Since 1996

Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund