Latin America and Caribbean Energy Forecasting – Scenarios at 2032 Workshop February 19, 2009 Kingston - Jamaica.

Latin America and Caribbean Energy Forecasting – Scenarios at

2032

Workshop February 19, 2009Kingston - Jamaica

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CONTENT

Energy Forecasting – Scenarios at 2032

Background and factors

Study Proposal

Study Objectives

Scope

Expected outcomes

Work plan and structure

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Regional Energy Matrix

Fuente: SIEE – OLADE

211,398 MMbep 22.0%

Hydroelectrical potencial (100 years)Potencial Used

13,500 MMbep 4,2%

Other potencial renewable energy (100 years)Potencial Used

500106

bep216,869

Carbón mineral

34106

bep58,332Natural Gas

42106

bep160,965Oil

Relation: Reserve – Production

(years)

UnitReserve tested

Energetic(Not

renewables)

Inventory of Energy Resources, 2007

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Regional Energetic Matrix

Energétic matrix in LAC (Demand)AÑO

Oil & derivates

Natural Gas Coal Hydroenergy Bioamass NuclearGeothermal

& othersTotal

(Mbep)

2003 43% 25% 5% 11% 13% 1% 2% 4 601

2004 41% 27% 5% 11% 14% 1% 2% 4 993

2005 41% 27% 6% 9% 15% 1% 1% 5 057

2006 42% 26% 6% 9% 14% 1% 2% 5 155

2007 43% 26% 5% 9% 14% 1% 2% 5 348

Component of the hydropower in the energy matrix has remained constant over the past 3 years although it has great potential.

The demand for oil, derivates and natural gas still maintaining the order of 70%, which confirms them as the main sources in the energy sector in the Region.

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Projection of total population

The population of OLADE’s member countries in The Caribbean grows yearly by 334 000 persons.

According to ECLAC estimates, by 2030 the population of these countries will reach 44 million persons.

The demographic concentration among these countries will be in Haiti, Republica Dominicana and Cuba.

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Projection of total population

Fuentes: CEPAL 2007 – Solo países Miembros de OLADE

Sub RegiónVariación

2035/2010

Tasa de

crecimiento anual

América del Sur 24.0% 0.9%

México y America Central 25.3% 0.9%

Caribe 18.1% 0.7%

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Num ber of

persons (m illions)

América del Sur México y America Central Caribe

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Projection of total population Over the coming years, it will be necessary to ensure a reasonable quality of life for a growing population, with:

- Food

- Housing

- Access to safe water

- Education

- Health

And also access to electricity supply

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Energy consumption

•The average yearly consumption of primary energy worldwide is between 1.6 and 1.7 Toe / person.

This consumption is only referential, considering that in developed countries, primary energy consumption per inhabitant is eight or more times greater than consumption in Caribbean countries.

Primary energy consumption will continue to grow and fossil fuels will continue to be an important part of the energy matrix.

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Consumption of energy primary (toe/person)

Fuentes: SIEE-OLADE, Octubre 2008, - BP Statistical Review June,2008 - World Economic Outlook, September 2008

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ENERGY PRIMARY CONSUMPTION

1.4

7.8

9.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

China USA Canadá

Consumptiontoe/person

ENERGY PRIMARY CONSUMPTION

0.1 0.2 0.20.4 0.5 0.6

0.9

1.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

GRENADA BARBADOS HAITI REP.DOM. JAMAICA GUYANA CUBA SURINAME

Consumption

toe/person

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CO2 emissions

•The release of green–house gases is related to fossil fuel consumption.

•In this regard, we should assess not only the volume of carbon dioxide emissions, but also their rate of growth.

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CO2 emissions – Other countries

Fuente: Sistema de Información Económica Energética -SIEE

0.5%1.9%1.1%5 957.05 823.55 289.35 001.7USA

0.7%2.0%1.3%1 230.41 190.21 075.51 009.1JAPON

0.8%1.5%0.2%415.3399.0369.5366.5FRANCIA

2.5%2.0%1.5%631.3558.4505.9468.9CANADA

2.9%4.3%1.6%406.6352.6285.3263.3AUSTRALIA

3.2%2.9%8.5%1 165.7994.1862.2574.6INDIA

3.7%5.4%1.1%387.1323.1248.135.3ESPAÑA

12.8%0.5%4.9%5 322.72 912.62 844.62 241.2CHINA

05 / 0000 / 9595 / 90 2 005 2 000 1 995 1 990

YEARLY GROWTH RATETOTAL IN MILLIONS OF TONS PER YEAR

PAÍS

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CO2 emissions – Caribbean countries

Fuente: Sistema de Información Económica Energética -SIEE

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1 990 1 995 2 000 2 005 95 / 90 00 / 95 05 / 00CUBA 35.4 30.6 32.7 33.0 -2.8% 1.3% 0.2%REP. DOMINICANA 8.8 10.9 17.5 17.8 4.4% 10.0% 0.3%JAMAICA 7.5 9.9 10.7 11.6 5.6% 1.7% 1.5%TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 18.1 22.5 27.4 38.2 4.4% 4.0% 6.9%SURINAME 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.9 -0.1% 1.3% 3.1%GUYANA 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.6 7.5% 11.7% -1.1%GRENADA 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 4.6% -4.4% 14.9%HAITI 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.8 5.0% 10.2% 3.0%

PAÍSTOTAL IN MILLIONS OF TONS PER YEAR YEARLY GROWTH RATE

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1Average yearly GDP growth, 2003–2007

Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y El Caribe - CEPAL

9%

4%

4%

5% 6%

5% 5%7%

8%

12%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

BARBADOS CUBA GRENADA GUY ANA HAITI J AM AICA REP.DOM . /DOM . REP.

SURINAM E TRINIDAD &TOBAGO

Millio

ns

US

$

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

9.0%

7.4%

0.9%

1.5%

8.5%

2.8%3.9% 2.5% 6.1%

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Energy intensity vs. GDP per capita in 2007 – are member countries more efficient?

Fuentes: SIEE-OLADE, Octubre 2008, - BP Statistical Review June,2008 - World Economic Outlook, September 2008

Fuente: Sistema de Información Económica Energética -SIEE

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0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

GDP per capita (103 US$/person)

En

erg

y In

ten

sit

y (

toe

/10

3 US

$.)

Trinidad &

Tobago

Jamaica

Cuba

Guyana

HaitiSuriname

Rep. Dominicana

BarbadosGrenada

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Foreign investment in millions of US$

Fuentes: CEPAL 2007 – Solo países Miembros de OLADE

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1981 /1985 1986/1990 1991/1995 1996/2000 2001/2005

Haití 33 37 14 62 56

Barbados 15 35 47 73 129

Guyana 14 0 397 268 233

Granada 11 58 97 178 294

Jamaica -43 232 512 1 347 2 660

Trinidad y

Tobago 678 334 1 542 3 118 3 974República

Dominicana 231 488 1 135 3 508 4 541

PaísPeriodo

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•OLADE has proposed to help its member countries in the new need to strengthen institutional capacities for planning.

•Energy forecasting, understood as proposing and analyzing future scenarios based on reliable parameters and reasonable hypotheses that are suited to the realities of each country or region, is an essential element of planning.

STUDY PROPOSAL2

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ENERGY PLANNING

• Before, the market established the development plans for the sector.

• Today's structural reforms in the energy sector have demonstrated the importance of planning.

• Energy security is a State responsibility, and planning is a tool to fullfil that responsibility.

• Energy data collection is essential for planning processes.

Study proposal2

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México & Centroamerica

Caribbean

South America

Subregional study proposal2

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•The analysis of energy demand will be made with a breakdown by sectors of consumption and energy sources.

•Emphasis will be placed on the particularities of each country and subregion.

•Be considered sources of energy that are most relevant in each country and subregion, as well as the potential for intra-intersubregiones and complementarity order to focus on important issues foresight of reality and the energy sub-regional energy integration options.

Study Approach2

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Analyze the possibilities and alternatives that waiting for the supply and demands in the horizon to the year 2032.

Determine some consequences that could be produced in the power sector of the Region before the alternative of possible scenes of regional integration.

To obtain a document of subregional consensus that contains the opinion of the power development.

Study Objetives 3

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Analyses of scenes that consider confront the uncertainty of the future power.

Analysis of two scenes •The Low regional integration and maintenance of existing dynamic tendencies• Scene with options for the sectors and selected specific power plants in each subregion.

Scenarios to consider4

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National: Institutions in the energy sector has a well-defined territory and the concept of "national sovereignty" remains rooted in Latin America and the Caribbean

Subregional: There are some specific subregions, linked to a process of economic integration or utilization of energy resources or additional features in a subregion

Regional: Search for an overview of the region, the optimization of complementarities that exist between subregions

Scope of the study4

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Having a long-term vision on the behavior of demand and supply of energy in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Promote the development of energy policies and strategies.

Support for energy planning agencies in strengthening institutional capacities and training professionals of the Member Countries.

Formation of a network of specialists in energy forecasting.

Expected outcomes5

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Participants: The experts from each member country, the consulting firm and professional from OLADE.

•Experts from each Country Membres provide information and participate in discussions at the workshops.•OLADE professionals will guide the study and participate in workshops.•The Consultant Team conducted exercises estimates, compiled the information and perform analysis.

Structure and Work Plan6

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Working Structure6

Actualization

the information

from the Countries

First

Subregional Workshop

Mexico; Perú;

Jamaica

Social &

economic scenarios

Energetic Scenarios

Integration

Scenarios

Second Subregional Workshop

Preliminar

ReportEnergy

Forecasting

Outcomes

Analysis by country,

subregión & región

RegionalWorkshop

Final Report

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México México y América Central - October 2008

Perú América del Sur – November 2008

Jamaica Caribe – February - 2009

Preliminary Report, Mar – May 2009

Panamá México y América Central

Uruguay América del Sur

Cuba Caribe

Junio 2009 – Final Report

Regional Workshop with the 26 member countries

Sub–regional Workshop Schedule

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www.olade.org

La energía más económica es la que no se consume y la más costosa es la que no se tiene.

De su uso racional garantizamos suficiente abastecimiento. De la eficiencia se obtienen beneficios para el desarrollo

sostenible de los pueblos, con el fin de satisfacer necesidades indipensables de vivienda, alimentación, salud y educación, disminuir la pobreza y conservar el ambiente.

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Thank you, Jamaica!

Quito-Ecuador

www.olade.org