Larry D. Hinzman University of Alaska Fairbanks Amanda Lynch University of Colorado

 Larry D. HinzmanUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks

Amanda LynchUniversity of Colorado

Kenji YoshikawaUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks

William GutowskiIowa State University

Philip MarshNational Hydrologic Research

Center

John CassanoUniversity of Colorado

Douglas L. KaneUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks

Matt A. NolanUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks 

Yuji KodamaHokkaido University

Richard JanowiczIndian and Northern Affairs

Detection and attribution of changes in the hydrologic regimes of the Mackenzie, the Kuparuk and the Lena River Basins

The objectives of this research are to detect and document changes in the storage of freshwater in the Arctic regions of the Western Canadian, Alaskan, and Eastern Siberian Arctic, to ascribe those changes to their land cover or climate source, and assess the impacts of past and future variations in storage components on freshwater inputs into the Arctic Ocean.

We intend to characterize the changing hydrologic regime spatially to facilitate accurate projections of future hydrologic conditions and to develop a numerical modeling capability that 1) accurately captures contemporary climatic and hydrologic dynamics, 2) projects reasonably accurate responses to future scenarios and 3) incorporates well documented algorithms that will be distributed to other modeling groups wishing to include dynamic land surface processes in arctic regions.

Objectives:

- document changes in the storage of terrestrial freshwater in the Arctic regions of the Western Canada, Alaska, and Eastern Siberia

- attribute the cause of those changes

- accurately project future hydrologic conditions by validating and applying several spatially-distributed numerical models of atmosphere and surface hydrology

- assess the impacts of past and possible future variations

Atmospheric Modelingwith the pan-Arctic MM5

• Pan-Arctic MM5 (PAM)– We will use an atmospheric model with Arctic specific physics– Includes NOAH land surface model

• Used in NCEP climate and weather prediction models• Predicts soil moisture, soil and skin temperature, snowpack

depth, snow water equivalent, and heat and moisture fluxes• Includes explicit treatment of frozen ground

– Polar specific model physics for clouds, turbulence, and sea ice• Atmospheric physics from the Polar MM5

– Horizontal resolution of 10-50 km• Pan-Arctic and SHEBA domains - 50 km• Mackenzie, Kuparuk, and Lena watersheds - 30 and 10 km

Atmospheric Modeling

Lena Model Domain

Mackenzie and Kuparuk Domains

• Smaller watershed domains– Indicated with red boxes in these plots– 10 km horizontal resolution– Provide atmospheric forcing data for

detailed hydrologic modeling with TopoFlow

• Large watershed domains

– Mackenzie, Kuparuk, and Lena watersheds

– 30 km horizontal resolution

Atmospheric Modeling• Initial Simulations

– Sept 1997 - Sept 1998(SHEBA year)

• Increased data for model validation

– Coordinated with ARCMIP

• International model intercomparison project

• Purpose of simulations– Model validation with

a focus on:• Snow cover• Surface fluxes• Atmospheric circulation

SHEBADomain

Pan-ArcticDomain

Trail Valley Creek, NWT

Trail Valley Creek

63 Km2

Tania Creek

8 Km2

Wolf Creek

195 Km2

Caribou-Poker Creeks

104 Km2

Kuparuk River Watershed

8000 Km2

Hu

lah

ula

R

iver

Konngakut River

McCall Glacier