Large-Scale Electricity Interconnection: Technology and ...€¦ · Large-scale Electricity Interconnection: Technology and prospects for cross-regional energy networks This map is

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Large-Scale Electricity Interconnection: Technology and Prospects for Cross-Regional Power Networks

15 November, Marrakesh

Jean-Francois Gagne

Head of Division, Energy Technology Policy

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Context

Paris Agreement gives momentum to renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE)

Record additions of RE in 2015, installed capacity surpassed coal

EE investments grew 6% in 2015 reaching $221bln

Local air pollution & energy security are also key drivers for power sector decarbonisation

Energy investment flows confirm a shift to clean energy, but there is need for investment in electricity grids to support the transition

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Contribution of mitigation actions to global cumulative CO2 reductions

Renewables and efficiency are at the heart of the energy transition

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Renewables 32%

Energy efficiency 32%

Fuel switching 10%

Nuclear 11%

CCS 15%2DS

4DS

The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix

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Electricity Generation: a share reversal

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Other

Wind

STE

Solar PV

Hydro

Biofuels and waste

Nuclear

Coal with CCS

Coal

Oil

Natural gas with CCS

Natural gas

Low-carbon share

Generation today: • Fossil fuels: 68% • Renewables: 22%

Generation 2DS 2050: • Renewables: 67% • Fossil fuels: 17%

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Experience has shown that cost-effective system integration of high shares of variable renewables is possible - with the right policies &

investments

Share of variable renewables in total electricity generation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

India

China

USA

Brazil

Mexico

Chile

UK

Germany

Ireland

Denmark

Share of variable renewables in electricity generation

2015

2021

Increasing shares of variable renewables calls for more flexibility

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Integration of networks and markets key enabler of flexibility and 21st century electricity systems

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area

Over 50 million kilometers of transmission lines – and yet less than 1% of this capacity for interconnection

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Investment in transmission grids needs to accelerate to reach COP goals

Transmission will account for 40% of all electricity grid investment needs; half of all transmission lines will have to be replaced between

now and 2040

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Interconnection can provide a range of benefits to achieve sustainable, secure electricity systems

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Interconnection can provide a range of benefits to achieve sustainable, secure electricity systems

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1

Ho

url

y ca

pac

ity

fact

or

Single wind park

Inner Mongolia

China

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

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Interconnection can provide a range of benefits to achieve sustainable, secure electricity systems

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area

Wind power potential <100km from cities

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Large-scale Electricity Interconnection: Technology and prospects for cross-regional energy networks

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area

Rigorous analysis of current technology and potential deployment trends in Europe and North Africa, South East Asia, Central America and Sub-Saharan Africa

South East Asia

Central America Europe and North Africa

Mid-term prospects (source: IEA/NER 2016)

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Conclusions

Clear signs of progress

Success of technology progress, market innovation and political leadership

An energy system approach is critical to achieve transformation

Stronger integration of networks and markets key enabler for the transition

IEA analysis to shed light on the role of large-scale, regional interconnection

© OECD/IEA, 2016

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