Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction

Page 1 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=1' data-page='1' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 1: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg' width='140' height='200' /> Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent

Bias Correction

Wilbur Y. ChenClimate Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

Page 2 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=2' data-page='2' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 2: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg' width='140' height='200' /> MDL

OBS

Bias =MDL - OBS

Mdl

Obs

Mdl Bias =Mdl - Obs

Page 3 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=3' data-page='3' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 3: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg' width='140' height='200' /> Page 4 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=4' data-page='4' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 4: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg' width='140' height='200' /> Raw fcst skill

Model bias corrected skill

Page 5 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=5' data-page='5' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 5: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg' width='140' height='200' /> Distinct in time-mean flows

Page 6 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=6' data-page='6' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 6: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg' width='140' height='200' /> Bias forWarm events

Bias for Cold events

Bias for Neutral events

Page 7 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=7' data-page='7' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 7: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg' width='140' height='200' /> Bias for warm DJFs

Bias for cold DJFs

Bias for neutral DJFs

Lead = 1 month Lead = 4 months Lead = 6 months

Page 8 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=8' data-page='8' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 8: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg' width='140' height='200' /> Conventional forecast

Verification

Improved forecast

Page 9 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=9' data-page='9' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 9: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg' width='140' height='200' /> Large improvement in AC skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction

Page 10 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=10' data-page='10' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 10: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg' width='140' height='200' /> Regime dependent bias corrected

Conventional mdl bias corrected

Raw predictions

Page 11 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=11' data-page='11' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 11: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg' width='140' height='200' /> Page 12 <img data-url='document/large-improvement-in-cfs-prediction-skill-by-regime-dependent-bias-correction-56ed9996f1e5f.html?page=12' data-page='12' class='cut-thumb lazyload' alt='Page 12: Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction' loading='lazy' src='data:image/gif;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAADUlEQVR42mNk+P+/HgAFhAJ/wlseKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==' data-src='https://reader035.cupdf.com/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56814e56550346895dbbee8f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg' width='140' height='200' />