Large Displacement Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (LDUUV) Life ...

Large Displacement Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (LDUUV) Life-Cycle Management

Lt Amanda ToweyLt Kristine Hime

Associate Professor Gene PauloProfessor Dan Nussbaum

Systems Engineering Department

1 April 2015

LDUUV Project Background•  LDUUV program needs to develop an approach to

Life Cycle Management, which includes:

ü  Life cycle cost analysis, particularly operating and support costs

ü  Identification and prioritization of appropriate missions and mission payloads

•  Design considerations of LDUUV include:

ü  Endurance; range; payload hosting options.

ü  Modular design, with open architecture and reconfigurable, incremental deliverables.

ü  Launch from variety of platforms to include surface vessels and shore facilities

ü  Missions include Intelligence Preparation of the Environment (IPOE), ASW, ISR, and offensive operations.

LT Amanda Towey: ���Life Cycle Cost Analysis for the Large

Displacement Unmanned Underwater Vehicle

LT Towey’s Thesis

Title: Life Cycle Cost Analysis for the Large Displacement Unmanned Underwater Vehicle

Thesis Statement: Develops an LCCE of the future LDUUV for Naval acquisition purposes using standard cost estimating models and methodologies.

1.  What is TOC of LDUUV?2.  What are current Life Cycle Cost drivers for LDUUV?3.  How does technology readiness of a prolonged endurance

capable power supply affect the TOC of the LDUUV?4.  How will LCC vary depending on different mission

configurations? (optional)

Methodology

•  Analogy Estimation – using UAV RQ-4A/B Global Hawk•  Cost Ratio Factor (CRF) – using weight, length and

endurance variables•  Acquisition Program Baseline (APB) – calculated using

RQ-4A/B 2015 APB•  Monte Carlo Simulation – triangular distribution for

RDT&E, OPN, and OMN–  RDT&E: Min weight CRF, most likely avg. CRF, Max

endurance CRF–  OPN: 90% learning curve and timed delivery schedule–  OMN: varied service life 6-10 years

•  90% learning curve recalculated for OPN using 90% probability result from Monte Carlo

Preliminary Results

020406080100120140160180

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Cos

t FY

15 $

M

Number of Units (N)

OPN 90% Learning Curves

CT(N)

Avg Unit cost

Probability  OPN  CT(12)  FY15  $M  

RDT&E  FY15  $M  

OMN  FY15$M  

MILCON  FY15  $M  

LCCE  FY15  $M  

0.9   1750.9   6398.1   1008.6   129.5   9347.8  

First unit cost: 186.8 FY15 $M Average unit cost: 151.0 FY15 $M

In progress

•  Analyzing potential additional cost drivers that will add to the baseline LCCE

•  Prolonged endurance capable power supply technology maturity sensitivity analysis

•  Completed thesis mid-December

LT Kristine Hime:���Mission Analysis for the Large Displacement

Unmanned Underwater Vehicle

LT Hime’s Thesis

Title: LDUUV Mission AnalysisResearch Objective: Determine the relative effects of design parameters on operational effectiveness

What design parameters – such as speed, endurance, sensor range – have the greatest impact on mission success?

What threshold values should the Navy require for an LDUUV?

Method

•  Create functional allocation for LDUUV mission•  Represent a typical ISR mission for LDUUVs in MANA•  Identify a range of capability levels for LDUUV, model them

in MANA–  Number of LDUUVs–  Sensor range–  Endurance–  Speed

•  Evaluate effect on operational success –  Success defined primarily by PD against enemy submarines

MANA Scenario

In Progress

•  Operational model framework is built; need to determine realistic, valid parameters for capabilities

•  Conduct DOE, apply it to simulation•  Analyze results from simulation •  Completed thesis: January 2016

Questions