LAND USE MODEL INDICATORS April 17, 2019 1
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LAND USE MODEL INDICATORS
April 17, 2019
1
Scenario Testing in this Study:
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EXTERNAL FORCES
INTERNAL DECISIONS
CHANGE
Organizing Potential Changes into Alternative Scenarios
A
B
C
Change can happen in many ways
Change is influenced by:
TESTING
RESULTS
RESULTS
RESULTS
Testing Transportation Alternatives Against the Future
Scenarios
How the Alternatives perform under different futures
Total Set of Measures that deal with Scenario
Evaluations
Subset of all Measures that deal with Performance of Transportation Alternatives
OVERVIEW –PERFORMANCE MEASURES AND THE LAND USE MODEL
3
4
Growth
Control
Totals
No Build Areas
Suitability Mapping
Indicators
Results
Land Use Scenario Planning
Start with the amount of growth to be allocated
Isolate where growth CANNOT go
Allocate growth according to Suitability
Factors
Create indicators measuring impacts (economic, social,
environmental),…
Interactively modify weighting of indicators
Compare results of each Scenario
Output to Dashboard that evaluates each Scenario
for Land Use Results
Output to Travel Demand Model to evaluate Transportation Alternatives under each Scenario
Image credits: Placeways
5
Using Indicators
Complex, extensive
Simple, streamlined
Versatility in the indicators you set up
Image credits: Placeways
Using Indicators
demographics
employment
environment
housing
land use
recreation
transportation
Image credits: Placeways
Topic categories for Indicators
Typically better to use Travel Demand Model measures
Using Indicators
Image credits: Placeways
Indicators and Data Layers
8
Examples of Indicators
9
Land Use Indicators
Transportation Indicators
Economic Indicators
Land Use Model
Travel Demand
Model
TREDIS Model
STUDY DASHBOARD
Indicators in the Modeling
OVERVIEW – TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL OUTPUT
10
1. Trip Generation • Number of trips by trip purpose (HBW, HBS, HBO, NHB, Ext)
2. Trip Distribution • Average trip lengths by time-of-day and trip purpose (minutes, miles)
• District to district origin-destination summaries by time-of-day and trip purpose
Hampton Roads Regional Travel Demand Model Output
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Trip Length Frequency Distribution Chesapeake Gloucester Hampton City Isle of Wight James City Newport News Norfolk City Poquoson
Chesapeake 27,260 33 1,188 265 214 1,958 19,986 21
Gloucester 196 1,536 348 32 403 778 664 14
Hampton City 1,745 96 17,807 363 758 10,844 6,229 178
Isle of Wight 1,162 31 1,033 3,373 195 1,879 2,300 20
James City 228 57 453 41 8,560 1,185 749 14
Newport News 1,941 233 8,217 464 2,221 26,952 5,260 204
Norfolk City 5,304 22 1,147 101 169 1,214 39,881 19
Poquoson 173 25 1,178 40 151 1,091 588 222
Portsmouth 5,709 19 861 187 143 1,448 7,049 16
Suffolk 3,879 33 1,094 739 208 1,946 5,479 20
Total 61,606 2,259 37,601 5,898 15,928 56,266 121,085 963
VA Beach 13,508 44 1,257 171 246 1,431 31,189 22
Williamsburg 22 7 50 4 895 123 72 2
York 478 123 2,969 118 1,764 5,417 1,637 209
District to District Trip Distribution: Home Based Work
3. Mode Choice • Trip summaries by mode of travel
4. Trip Assignment • Vehicle miles of travel (VMT)
• Vehicle hours of travel (VHT)
• Vehicle hours of delay (VHD)
• Congested speed vs free-flow
speed by facility type
• Level of service (LOS)
Hampton Roads Regional Travel Demand Model Output
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Congested Speed by Facility Type
VMT by Facility Type and Level of Congestion
Peak Mode Choice Purpose HBW HBO NHB Percent HBW Percent HBO Percent NHB
Drive Alone 433,620 438,247 589,714 85.03 39.43 57.78
SR2 43,041 388,328 276,292 8.44 34.94 27.07
SR3 17,081 279,174 152,625 3.35 25.12 14.95
Walk to Transit 11,508 5,385 1,966 2.26 0.48 0.19
Drive to Transit 659 251 0 0.13 0.02 0
Walk to Prem Tran 0 0 0 0 0 0
Drive to Prem Tran 1,193 0 0 0.23 0 0
Fringe Shuttle 2,887 0 0 0.57 0 0
Total 509,989 1,111,384 1,020,596 100 100 100
Jurisdiction, Facility Type Free Moderate Severe Total
High Speed Ramp 39,637 11,653 -- 51,290
Interstate 810,088 999,080 -- 1,809,168
Local -- -- -- --
Low Speed Ramp 58,854 99,796 115,701 274,351
Major Arterial 92,626 116,245 75,051 283,922
Major Collector 64,518 45,136 14,746 124,400
Minor Arterial 379,578 888,959 155,428 1,423,965
Minor Collector 208,312 152,345 53,161 413,817
Minor Freeway 220,966 470,726 -- 691,692
Principal Arterial 278,738 425,498 85,341 789,577
Total 2,153,318 3,209,438 499,427 5,862,184
Chesapeake
1-CBD 2-OBD 3-Urban 4-Sub Urban 5-Rural
-- -- -- -- --
High Speed Ramp -- 39 39 44 45
Interstate -- 61 62 62 64
Local -- -- -- -- --
Low Speed Ramp -- 28 26 34 33
Major Arterial -- -- -- 36 39
Major Collector -- -- -- 35 43
Minor Arterial -- 30 35 39 40
Minor Collector -- 25 27 34 37
Minor Freeway -- -- -- 54 55
Principal Arterial -- 34 38 43 45
_ Area Type
Jurisdiction, Facility Type
Chesapeake
Hampton Roads Regional Travel Demand Model Output
13
2009 Base
Traffic Volume Map
2009 Base
Traffic Congestion Level
Hampton Roads Regional Travel Demand Model Output
14
Sample Objectives Measure of Success Travel Model Output
Connectivity Labor market access – population within xx min. of employment centers
Population, employment, and travel times
Economic Vitality Cost of Congestion Vehicle-hours traveled by income class
Safety Number of Accidents/Fatalities Vehicle-miles traveled
Air Quality Emissions Vehicle-miles traveled by speed
Travel Efficiency Non-SOV travel Passenger transit boardings + HOV trips
Congestion Relief Amount of travel in congestion Vehicle-miles traveled by volume/capacity ratio
OVERVIEW – ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE MEASURES AND THE TREDIS MODEL
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Types of economic analysis
Because transportation investments are intended to improve both the overall wellbeing of society, and to grow the economy, two types of economic analyses are used to assess proposed projects:
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Economic (Societal) Benefit
• Societal value
• Monetized based on actual costs or “willingness-to-pay”
Impacts on the Economy
• Impacts on the regional economy
• Jobs, income, business sales, GRP
Economic Impact Analysis
Transportation Improvement
Travel Benefits
Industry Response & Change in Access
Economic Impact
Evaluation of changes in economy due to monetary transactions.
© 2017 17
Economic/Societal Benefits
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STANDARD
Travel Time Savings
Vehicle Operating
Costs
Safety Benefits
Emissions Reductions
• Person-hours
• By purpose/ mode
• $/hour
• Vehicle-miles
• Congestion
• $/mile
• Fatality, injury, property damage
• $/incident (by severity)
• Vehicle-miles
• Congestion
• Tons/mile
• $/ton VOCs, NOx, SOx, PM, and CO2
Economic/Societal Benefits
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Reliability Savings
Labor Market Access
• Congestion
• “Buffer Time”
• $/hour
• Accessible labor market
• Improved business productivity (better matching)
WIDER ECONOMIC BENEFITS
Economic Impacts
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Transportation improvements achieve
economic growth by changing travel costs
and improving business productivity
Changing household spending patterns
Decreased business
spending on transportation
Improved market access
Summary
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Performance from Travel Model Economic Measures
Change in (Build minus Base):
• Trips (by Mode, Purpose)
• Vehicle-miles traveled
• Vehicle/person-hours
• Fraction in congestion
• Accessible labor market (Pop w/in 40 minutes)
Monetized user & non-user costs
• Travel time
• Reliability
• Vehicle operating cost
• Safety
• Emissions
• Market access
Changes in the economy
• Jobs, Wages, GRP, Income
• Total/by industry
Modeling the Scenarios
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SCENARIOS
(Economic
Narratives,
All Drivers) TR
AV
EL
DE
MA
ND
MO
DE
L LA
ND
US
E M
OD
EL
TRE
DIS
MO
DE
L
O U
T P
U T
S
Location of Growth
Type of Growth
(SE Data)
Type of Growth
(Place Types)
Location of Growth
(TAZs)
Trip Generation
Mode Split
Others* I N
P
U T
S
Others
User & Non User
Costs
Changes in
Economy
Others
A
B
C
* Note Existing + Committed Transportation Network assumed
as consistent input in Greater Growth scenarios
WORKSHOP – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, AND MEASURES
24
Important Points
Extensive flexibility in how indicators are developed
The range of indicators is only limited by data availability
Best practice is to work with a smaller set of indicators – makes for clear, understandable differences between the Scenarios
25
Filters to Keep in Mind
26
Does it measure the resilience of transportation actions?
Will it vary by scenario and/or transportation alternative?
Does it gauge efficient transportation outcomes?
Goals
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Economic
Vitality
Sustainability &
Equity
Resiliency,
Safety, &
Innovation
Connectivity &
Accessibility
Natural &
Community
Resources
KEY: RELEVANCE/MEASUREABILITY REPETITION/REDUNDANCY
Economic Vitality Objectives Sustainability & Equity Objectives
1. Sustain existing industry and technology sectors.
2. Develop new industry and technology sectors.
3. Invest in the Port of Virginia as an economic anchor for the region.
4. Capitalize on the region’s freight network to create inter- and intra-regional economic opportunities.
5. Ensure that freight operations help to support, not degrade, the region’s communities.
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1. Establish policies and regulation for land use patterns that minimize the need for auto- dependent trips, reducing volumes on critical connectors.
2. Improve the housing diversity and affordability in the region.
3. Invest in transportation improvements equitably, in affluent and nonaffluent neighborhoods, while mitigating negative effects of new infrastructure.
4. Provide multi-modal solutions to transportation needs throughout region.
5. Support land use patterns that place less demand on the existing transportation network.
6. Ensure that new transportation investments are appropriate to the surrounding community and the region.
Resiliency, Safety, & Innovation Objectives 1. Research and anticipate emerging technologies and their effects on the regional
transportation system.
2. Implement smart transportation strategies that incorporate new technologies.
3. Establish alternative transportation routes, to aid congestion and/or unplanned events, such as traffic accidents, infrastructure failure, natural hazards, etc.
4. Invest in transportation technologies for public systems that protect local natural resources.
5. Invest in transportation facilities that will decrease the occurrence of traffic accidents, especially along critical connectors.
6. Invest in a resilient transportation system that allows for safe evacuation during hurricane and other major flood events.
7. Design a transportation system to ensure military readiness in times of massive activation.
8. Invest in transportation improvements that more efficiently maximize the existing roadway capacities.
9. Expand the coverage area and reliability of emergency response service, with a balanced emphasis on safety and restoration of roadway capacity.
10. Provide greater access to natural resources, rural and urban areas. (repeats info on next 2 slides)
29
Connectivity & Accessibility Objectives 1. Maintain and improve transportation connectivity with outside markets.
2. Maintain and improve intra-regional transportation connectivity, especially between the peninsula and southside.
3. Improve transit frequency and coverage throughout the region.
4. Increase multi-modal connectivity within region.
5. Support a more diverse economy and population, through transportation capital investments that bring access and connectivity.
6. Provide alternative transportation options to the existing Hampton Roads harbor crossings.
7. Improve access to the oceanfront for the region’s residents and visitors. (last slide & next slide)
8. Improve access between the region’s residents and businesses for economic opportunity, especially in areas where water features create boundaries.
9. Invest in transportation improvements that will limit travel delay times.
10. Develop a transportation network that is resilient and can quickly adapt to changing conditions. (last slide)
30
Natural & Community Resources Objectives
1. Develop transportation solutions that support the region’s assets, such as the military, natural resources and diverse communities. (prior slides)
2. Quantify the environmental impacts of new growth and development on the region’s natural resources.
3. Invest in environmentally sustainable modes of transportation, to contribute to higher air and water quality for the region.
4. Protect the region’s natural resources.
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MEASURES - DISCUSSION
What did you see in the model presentations that is promising?
What measures can help distinguish the objectives?
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Exercise: Pick 2-4 Objectives and list measure(s) you suggest for each
Filters to Keep in Mind During the Exercise
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Does it measure the resilience of transportation actions?
Will it vary by scenario and/or transportation alternative?
Does it gauge efficient transportation outcomes?
SCHEDULE
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Current Schedule
TASK 4 CONDUCT SCENARIO PLANNING
4.1 Building the Base Data, Models, and Scenarios v v t v q
4.2 Defining Alternative Future Scenarios v l v t vl q
4.3 Defining Measures of Success v vl t q
4.4 Evaluate 2015 Current Regional Conditions v t q
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Jan Feb Apr May Jun Jul Mar
F E B R U A R Y M A R C H A P R I L J U N E M A Y
7 15 21 27 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 6 13 20 27 21 28 30
Model
Development 1 • Finalize
2015/2045
Place Types
• Discussion of
Beyond 2045
Place Types
• Alternative
Growth Forecasts
• Industry Growth
Drivers
Model
Development 2 • Finalize Beyond
2045 Place Types
• Discussion of
Land Suitability
Factors &
Weighting
• Linkages between
Place Types and
Economic Drivers
Alternative
Scenarios 1 • Discussion of
Potential Drivers
& Types of Drivers
(primary,
secondary, etc.)
• Update on
Alternative
Growth Forecasts
• Survey of
Economic Trends
and Economic
Scenario
Narratives
Alternative
Scenarios 2 • Finalizing Matrix
of Drivers by Type
• Finalizing
Alternative
Scenarios
• Draft Control
Totals for
Scenarios
Measures of
Success 1 • Discussion of
Potential MOEs
based on
Objectives and
Dashboard
• Next Iteration of
Scenario
storylines
Measures of
Success 2 • Finalizing List of
MOEs
• Finalizing
Dashboard
• Sample
Dashboard
Output (2015?)
REGIONAL CONNECTORS STUDY – INITIAL DRAFT SCHEDULE OF WORKING GROUP WEBINARS W
EB
INA
RS
DATES AND TOPICS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Ap
ril 1
7 –
Wo
rksh
op
MA
Y 2
3 –
Wo
rksh
op
WEBINAR – MAY 2 WORKSHOP – Week of May 20 (not Friday)
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