Land Market Monitoring: Beyond Land Supply Gerrit-Jan Knaap Gerrit-Jan Knaap Professor and Director Professor and Director National Center for National Center for Smart Growth Research and Smart Growth Research and Education Education University of Maryland University of Maryland
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Land Market Monitoring: Beyond Land Supply Gerrit-Jan Knaap Professor and Director National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education University of.
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Land Market Monitoring: Beyond Land Supply
Gerrit-Jan KnaapGerrit-Jan KnaapProfessor and DirectorProfessor and Director
National Center for National Center for Smart Growth Research and Smart Growth Research and
EducationEducationUniversity of MarylandUniversity of Maryland
New Single Family Home Prices, New Single Family Home Prices, RegionsRegions
Source: Census New Residential Sales IndexSource: Census New Residential Sales Index
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Med
ian
New
Ho
me
Pri
ce, 2
001$
United States
Northeast Region
Midw est Region
South Region
West Region
House Price IndexHouse Price Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
ytd
9/20
02
Ind
ex V
alu
e
United States
South Atlantic Division
Maryland
Virginia
District of Columbia
Baltimore MSA
Washington MSA
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)
Existing Single Family Home Existing Single Family Home Prices, Maryland CountiesPrices, Maryland Counties
Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. and National Association of Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. and National Association of Homebuilders Homebuilders
$50,000
$70,000
$90,000
$110,000
$130,000
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Med
ian
Exi
stin
g H
om
e P
rice
, 200
1$
South Region
Maryland
Baltimore City
Anne Arundel County
Baltimore County
Calvert County
Carroll County
Cecil County
Charles County
Frederick County
Harford County
How ard County
Montgomery County
Prince George's County
Queen Anne's County
St. Mary's County
Talbot County
Washington County
Monitoring Rents Monitoring Rents Table 1Share of Renter Households Paying Excess or Severe Cost Burdens, 1990Cleveland PMSA
Renter Income (as a % of HAMFI)0-30% 30-50% 50-80%
Excess Cost Burden (paying over 30% of income for housing)Entire metropolitan area 74% 70% 33%Central city only 73% 57% 16%Suburbs only 77% 81% 42%
Severe Cost Burden (paying over 50% of income for housing)Entire metropolitan area 58% 21% 3%Central city only 55% 10% 1%Suburbs only 66% 30% 4%
Source: 1990 Census as reported in the CHAS database, 1993.
Monitoring AffordabilityMonitoring Affordability
A. Share of Renter Households Paying Excess or Severe Cost BurdensBy Income, 1992 and 1996Cleveland PMSA
$1 to $9,999 $10,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $29,999
1992, Share paying over:30% of income 71% 54% 21%50% of income 46% 10% 3%
1996, Share paying over:30% of income 72% 73% 28%50% of income 51% 21% 3%
Source: American Housing Survey for the Cleveland Metropolitan Area, 1992 and 1996
Note: Percentages are calculated excluding those paying 100% or more of incomefor housing.
B. HAMFI Income Limits for the Cleveland Metropolitan Area4 person family
Share of Units Renting for less than $500** 1992 19962 Bedroom Units--Metropolitan Area 65% 45%All Units-Cleveland 89% 75%All Units-Rest of Cuyahoga Co. 54% 33%
Median rents 1992 19962 Bedroom Units--Metropolitan Area 449$ 519$ All Units-Cleveland 343$ 402$ All Units-Rest of Cuyahoga Co. 486$ 567$
Sources: HUD User Web Site and American Housing Survey for the ClevelandMetropolitan Area, 1992 and 1996
*Prior to 1995, FMRs were calculated at the 45th percentile of the distribution.They are now calculated at the 40th percentile.
**Percentages are calculated excluding those paying no cash rent.
Income as a Share of the HAMFI Threshold30% or less 50% or less 80% or less
Entire metropolitan area 0.76 1.37 1.66Central city only 0.85 1.50 1.43Suburbs only 0.56 1.17 1.92
Measuring, Monitoring, and Measuring, Monitoring, and Evaluating Urban FormEvaluating Urban Form
(1) Street Design and (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems:Circulation Systems:
• Int_ConnectivityInt_Connectivity – ratio of the – ratio of the number of street intersections number of street intersections versus the sum of intersections versus the sum of intersections and cul-de-sacs (Criterion, 1999);and cul-de-sacs (Criterion, 1999);
(1) Street Design and (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems Circulation Systems (Continued):(Continued):
• Ext_ConnectivityExt_Connectivity – median – median distance between Ingress/Egress distance between Ingress/Egress (access) points in feet (Criterion, (access) points in feet (Criterion, 1999); 1999);
(1) Street Design and Circulation (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (Continued):Systems (Continued):
• Blocks_PeriBlocks_Peri – median value of perimeter – median value of perimeter of the blocks in a neighborhood; of the blocks in a neighborhood;
• BlocksBlocks – number of blocks divided by – number of blocks divided by number of housing units;number of housing units;
(1) Street Design and Circulation (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (Continued):Systems (Continued):
• Length_Cul-De-Sac_ StLength_Cul-De-Sac_ St – median value – median value of length of cul-de-sac streets; of length of cul-de-sac streets;
• Rt_Cul-De-Sac_UnitsRt_Cul-De-Sac_Units – proportion of – proportion of housing units that are located by the housing units that are located by the Cul-De-Sacs in a neighborhood;Cul-De-Sacs in a neighborhood;
• Ped_ComPed_Com – percentage of SFR units – percentage of SFR units within walkable distance of within walkable distance of commercial uses; commercial uses;
• Ped_TransitPed_Transit – percentage of SFR units – percentage of SFR units within walkable distance of transit within walkable distance of transit stations; stations;
• Mix Mix – actual area of commercial, – actual area of commercial, industrial and public land uses in the industrial and public land uses in the neighborhood divided by number of neighborhood divided by number of housing units in a neighborhood; housing units in a neighborhood;
• Lot_sizeLot_size – the median value of the area of – the median value of the area of lot size in square foot in a neighborhood;lot size in square foot in a neighborhood;
• Pop_Denisty – Pop_Denisty – the number ofthe number of households households divided by the area of the neighborhood;divided by the area of the neighborhood;
• SFRDU_DensitySFRDU_Density – SFR housing units – SFR housing units divided by the area of the neighborhood; divided by the area of the neighborhood;