Land Health Decisions Mainstream Decision Analysis in development! • Policy makers face tough decisions on allocating scarce resources to achieve Development Goals • Business Decision Analysis techniques can optimize choices and demonstrate value for money Transforming lives and landscapes with trees World Agroforestry Centre, Nairobi, Kenya, www.worldagroforestry.org Decision Analysis methods… …include decision-makers in analyzing the decisions they face …consider all relevant variables (incl. ‘intangibles’) …use data as well as expert knowledge …consider risks and uncertainties …project full range of plausible decision outcomes …identify key knowledge gaps for further research …are widely used in many fields, but not in development Improve decision-making processes instead of chasing targets • The defining moment for the development success of interventions is the time of decision-making • Decision models allow comparing outcome prospects of different decision options • Models offer guidance on how to decide, how to design projects and what indicators to monitor • In contrast, quantitative targets defined without decision contexts are not directly useful for advising on specific decisions, but encourage ‘indicator optimization’ rather than improving decisions Strengthening capacity in Decision Analysis • Most development decisions are not well supported, since most scientific studies omit issues decision-makers must consider • Decision Analysis comprehensively supports specific decisions • Such support is very effective in the private sector, and should benefit development processes • ‘Embedding’ decision analysts within governments for providing decision-specific support would enhance development success • Training up a generation of decision- analysts may be the single-most effective development investment Decision Analysis at the World Agroforestry Centre • The Land Health Decisions unit develops, adapts and applies decision analysis tools in development contexts • The main objective is the design of effective decision analysis processes and their mainstreaming in development Contact Eike Luedeling: [email protected] Keith Shepherd: [email protected] Working directly with decision-makers Decision Analysis can consider multiple development objectives