Lakewood WA, crime, July 2009 report

Lakewood Police Department Monthly

Crime Report

• C&I Report July 2009

• 2008-2009 Comparison

Charts

• Gang Arrests

• 2008-2009 Traffic Accidents

July 2009

Lakewood Police Department Crime & Incident Report

July 2009

This is preliminary data provided by LESA Records based on the IBR report format.This data is accurate as of 8/21/2009.

Lakewood Crime and Incident Report for July 2009 (Part One Crime – with Non-Aggravated Assault)

City of Lakewood July 2009

Part One Crimes*

Jul-08 Jul-09

Year to Date 2008

Year to Date 2009

Yearly Percentage of

Change

ViolentAggravated Assault 42 39 177 219 23.7%Homicide 0 0 3 2 -33.3%Rape 3 0 27 22 -18.5%Robbery Total 8 11 69 91 31.9%

Violent Crimes Total 53 50 276 334 21.0%PropertyArson 0 1 13 6 -53.8%Auto Theft 29 19 245 139 -43.3%Burglary Total 68 41 418 309 -26.1%

Residential 50 290 -100.0%Non-Residential 18 128 -100.0%

All Other Larceny** 214 191 1336 1215 -9.1%

Property Crime Total 311 252 2012 1669 -17.0%

All Part One Crimes 364 302 2288 2003 -12.5%

Other AssaultsNon-Aggravated Assault 90 119 623 622 -0.2%*This is preliminary data provided by LESA 8/21/09 based on the UCR report format.

**Larceny includes Theft from Motor Vehicle - Vehicle Prowl, Shoplifting, Theft Other

Monthly Crime and Incident Report

Analyzing the different types of violent crime, we can see that aggravated assaults constitute 66% of Total Violent Crime, Robbery: 27%, Rape: 6.6% and Homicide: .5%.

Robberies are up but the number that is really hurting us is the DV aggravated assaults (21).

LESA numbers indicate a 21% rise in Violent Part 1 Crime

Approx. 51% of 2009 Aggravated Assaults are DV* (based on reading all reports thru June09)

11% all felony violent crime in 2009 committed by military (38)

Information contained herein is incident based (RMS) and is accurate

as of 8/24/2009.

Lakewood Crime and Incident Report for July 2009 (Part Two Crime)

Monthly Crime and Incident Report City of Lakewood

July 2009

Jul-08 Jul-09

Year to Date 2008

Year to Date 2009

Yearly Percentage of

Change

Drugs*Drug Possession Total 27 15 205 186 -9.3%

(Methamphetamine) 6 2 44 29 -34.1%(Marijuana) 12 0 92 91 -1.1%

(Cocaine) 6 8 39 28 -28.2%(Other) 3 5 30 38 26.7%

Drug Sale Manufacturing Total 9 10 59 54 -8.5%(Methamphetamine) 0 0 11 10 -9.1%

(Marijuana) 3 4 12 16 33.3%(Cocaine) 3 2 17 11 -35.3%

(Other) 3 4 19 17 -10.5%

Total Drugs 36 25 264 240 -9.1%

Prostitution* Total 1 5 48 41 -14.6%

(Prostitution) 1 5 47 36 -23.4%(Procure for Prostitution) 0 0 1 5 400.0%

Domestic Violence ** 148 148 891 841 -5.6%Felony DV 16 21 100 131 31.0%Misdemeanor DV 65 68 404 385 -4.7%

Other DV (Court Order Vio, Burg etc.) 67 59 387 325 -16.0%

*Data, except for DV, is from the LESA Data Warehouse using the RMS system.**DV information is from LESA Data Warehouse using Query Analyzer. The crime reported here is included in Part I of this report.

Other Crimes and Incidents* 206 222 1306 1135 -13.1%

Check Forgery 6 7 30 33 10.0%Check Fraud 1 0 6 9 50.0%Other Frauds 21 25 154 88 -42.9%Counterfeiting 3 1 14 8 -42.9%Vandalism 175 189 1102 997 -9.5%

Part 1 Violent Domestic (Felony) Violence is up 31% roughly equal to the rise in Violent Crime all together.

Of the domestic violence, we are seeing a fair amount of military and a fair amount of alcohol. The other interesting element of this equation is the amount of DV we’re seeing from apartments (~40%).

19% of YTD Felony DV committed by military.

Comparison 2005-2009* Felony DV (Aggravated Assault, Robbery, Rape, Homicide)

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

No

of

Inci

den

ts

*Total for 2009 is the average of 7 months multiplied by 12.

DV Trends 2005-2009Comparison 2005-2009* Non-Felony DV

(Simple Assault)

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

No

of

Inc

ide

nts

*Total for 2009 is the average of 7 months multiplied by 12.

Comparison 2005-2009* DV Other (Court Order/Burglaries etc.)

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Nu

mb

er o

f In

cid

en

ts

*Total for 2009 is the average of 7 months multiplied by 12.

Felony DV has risen steadily, the other types of DV have remained somewhat flat (trend).

Lakewood Police Department 2008-2009 Monthly Crime

Comparison Charts

January - December 2008-2009

2008 Jul: 364 UCR2009 Jul: 302 UCR (Preliminary)Decrease 12.5% YTD Jul 08-Jul 09

Part One Crime includes:

Violent Crime: Aggravated Assault, Homicide, Rape, Robbery

Property Crime: Arson, Motor Vehicle Theft, Burglary (Residential and Non-Residential), Theft (All Larceny, except Auto Theft)

Analysis Year to Date:

Total Part One Crime is:

Total Part One Crime By Month 2007-2008-2009

302

255327

221

309289300

0

50

100150

200

250

300350

400

450

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

No

. o

f In

cid

en

ts

2007 2008 2009

2008 Jul: 311 UCR2009 Jul: 252 UCR (Preliminary)Decrease of 17% YTD Jul 08-Jul 09

Part One Property Crime includes:

Arson, Auto Theft, Burglary (Residential and Non-Residential), Theft (All Larceny, except Auto Theft)

Analysis Year to Date: Property Crime continues to go down with auto thefts (-43%) and burglaries (-26%). Surrounding jurisdictions in Pierce County are experiencing a rash of residential burglaries.

Total Part One Property Crime by Month 2007- 2008 - 2009

252

218188

232261 267

223

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

No

. o

f In

cid

en

ts

2007 2008 2009

Gang Arrests 2007 Thru YTD 2009

4

7

12

8

14

9

13

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Arr

ests

2007 2008 2009

Total Arrests2007 = 98 Total 2008 = 67 YTD2009 =11

Lakewood PD Gang Related Arrests 2007-YTD 2009

These numbers are Warehouse derived and accurate as of 24 August 2009

Total 2009 Arrests as of 1 August 09 = 67

Gang involvement seems to be on the increase especially exacerbated by the recent (6-12 months) infusion of outside gangs into Lakewood (California, Yakima, Federal Way, Seattle, Chicago, Tennessee, etc). In previous years, Lakewood’s gang problem had been predominantly Tillicum Park Gangsters, Lakewood Hustler Crips and Eastside Locotes Surenos but recently there are numerous other Hispanic gangs, Chicago style gangs, California gangs and Yakima based gangs competing against one another for the drug trade.

2008 Jul: 53 UCR2009 Jul: 50 UCR (Preliminary)Increase 21.0 YTD Jul 08-Jul 09

Part One Crime includes:

Violent Crime: Aggravated Assault, Homicide, Rape, Robbery

Property Crime: Arson, Motor Vehicle Theft, Burglary (Residential and Non-Residential), Theft (All Larceny, except Auto Theft)

Analysis: Aggravated Assaults went from 28 in June to 39 in July. YTD Violent Crime continues to be 21% higher than 2008. (Small numbers reflect large percentage changes.) Three factors that could contribute to this increase are: (1) The populations of McChord and Fort Lewis continue to grow without this increase being reflected in the city population. (2) In 2007 33% of all aggravated assaults were domestic violence related. In 2009 that number is nearly 51%, which may be as the result the increase unemployment rate to 9.4% in Pierce County. (3) Gang violence is on the rise not only in Lakewood, but all over Washington.

Part One Violent Crime 2007-2008-2009 by Month

57 50

37

60

48

33

49

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

No

. o

f In

cid

en

ts

2007 2008 2009

Theory: Increased military population and an increased number of soldiers with combat tours in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. While the population of Lakewood has remained constant according to

the Washington Association of Sheriffs and Police Chiefs (WASPC), the military population has risen dramatically. Much of this military population either resides or recreates within Lakewood yet is not figured into the population. So, there is violent crime proportional to a larger city than Lakewood’s

58,780 citizens and there is a parallel increase in crime along with this increase in military presence. There are no middle schools or high schools on Fort Lewis therefore, those dependent children attend Clover Park School District schools. A large portion of Fort Lewis and McChord AFB’s population eat, shop, drink and otherwise recreate in Lakewood on a daily basis because of Lakewood’s proximity to

two large bases.

Military Population Growth

58506 58569

74361

65262

82592

86464

92772

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

90000

95000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Lakewood Population Military Totals Linear (Military Totals)

Violent Crime Incidents 2003-2008

423

505

491

512

483

541

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Violent Crime Incidents Linear (Violent Crime Incidents)

The most indicative demonstration is to observe the trend line of Military Population and of Violent Crime.

Why is crime going up in Lakewood?

Increase of Military Personnel/DOD Civilians and Dependents on Fort Lewis

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Military 19476 19497 24754 21725 27494 28783 30883DOD Civilians 5126 4977 5296 5061 5199 5118 5215School Aged Children Of Military 9426 9437 11981 10515 13307 13931 14947School Aged Children Of DOD Civilians 2481 2409 2563 2450 2516 2477 2524Military Family Members 29604 29635 37626 33022 41791 43750 46942Lakewood Population 58940 59010 58850 59000 58950 58780

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Military Totals 58506 58569 74361 65262 82592 86464 92772Total Base Population 27888 28222 34660 32321 37585 38760 41012Total Persons Living Off Post 30618 30347 39701 32941 45007 47704 51760

Total Accidents (Reports Taken) by MonthPhoto Enforcement started in March 2006

Redflex Notices started in July 2006

90

71

75

91

84

83

99

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2008 Reports Taken 2009 Reports Taken

2008YTD: 6652009YTD: 593From 08-09: -10.8%2007-2008: +2.7%

Lakewood Total Crime 1997-2008 (rate per 1000)

86

91

72.2

76.6

72.272.2

68.668.577.5

94.6

86.8

72.7

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Lakewood Violent Crime 1997-2008 (rate per 1000)

7.3 7.2

8.38.7

8.2

9.2

8.6

7.8

10.6

12.5 12.4

12.4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Lakewood Property Crime 1997-2008 (rate per 1000)

64.9

6967.0

60.3 59.4

63.567.2

62.7

78.6

73.682.1

76.1

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Explanation of WASPC Numbers

• Population decrease is based on Office of Financial Management and much of that is based on taxes. Essentially, non-tax paying/non-working citizens skew the numbers downward

• Lakewood’s numbers are reported by LESA in IBR (Incident Based Reporting) format even though we here in Lakewood submit everything in UCR (Uniform Crime Report) format. The differences are complex but in general, UCR uses a hierarchy rule (in a crime where multiple offenses occur, the most serious is counted). IBR essentially counts everything. UCR numbers are reported up to the day the data is pulled. IBR numbers continue to retrieve data entered after the fact. (So, in general, IBR numbers should be theoretically higher).

• So, LESA pulls numbers and reports them to us in UCR but to the Feds in IBR. Then, WASPC takes the IBR numbers from an IBR Repository program and converts them back to UCR using an equation given to them by the FBI. We’re not sure how this formula works.

• There are 53 jurisdictions in Washington reporting via IBR so only those jurisdictions would have that equation used to “fix” their numbers.

• According to WASPC, “some are affected positively and some are affected negatively”

• But all the numbers that were passed up to FBI for Lakewood came back down higher than what LESA told us they would be.

• While we knew our violent crime had gone up from 8.2 per 1000 people to 8.4 per 1000. WASPC reported our numbers after the formula as 9.2 per 1000. Which is a significant jump.