Laboratory of Climate and Water Resources ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment.

Laboratory of Climate and Water Resources

ENSEMBLES RT6 MeetingLund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment

of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań. Poland

Head – Professor Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Involved personel:

Dr Małgorzata Szwed

Dr Maciej Radziejewski

Ms Iwona Pińskwar

Mr Dariusz Graczyk

Areas of PAS’s interests:

droughtsfloodscrop yieldheat and cold waves

ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

CLIMATEEvaporation

Soilmoisture Crop

yield

RunoffExtreme

flows

Healtheffects

ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

CLIMATE Evaporation Runoff Extremeflows

ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

Estimating of the evaporation/evapotranspiration:

Turc equation for Europe

Ivanov equation for Europe

method of heat balance for Poland

ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

Variable    Land use      

  deciduous coniferous urban green   sugar

  forest forest areas crops cereal beet

P 610,7 610,7 610,7 610,7 610,7 610,7

E 903,2 982,0 464,5 671,9 738,2 818,9

H = P-E 14,0 -41,1 298,1 144,9 105,4 91,8

1961-1990

Variable    Land use      

  deciduous coniferous urban green   sugar

  forest forest areas crops cereal beet

P 546,1 546,1 546,1 546,1 546,1 546,1

E 687,8 748,8 352,9 531,2 574,5 596,5

H = P-E -141,7 -202,7 193,2 14,9 -28,4 -50,4

2071-2100

P, E, H in (mm)

Based on Had RM3 PRECIS – result,

For the future scenario A2

For grid-cell with the city of Poznań

Cereal

Sugar beet

Forest

Urban area Green crops

Land use in grid-cell with the city of Poznań

ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

    1961-1990   2071-2100

month P E H P E H

1 58,1 9,0 49,0 58,5 20,2 38,3

2 51,3 14,4 36,9 59,3 25,2 34,1

3 47,6 25,0 22,7 42,3 24,4 17,9

4 50,1 46,5 3,6 48,7 45,1 3,6

5 58,4 76,2 -17,8 60,7 78,8 -18,2

6 69,8 92,6 -22,8 55,7 98,7 -43,0

7 60,1 104,4 -44,3 35,5 116,4 -81,0

8 39,9 67,5 -27,6 19,2 74,2 -55,0

9 36,0 41,9 -5,9 23,0 45,4 -22,3

10 35,9 15,9 20,0 33,4 17,7 15,7

11 48,7 19,0 29,7 51,2 29,9 21,3

12 54,8 8,8 46,0 58,6 19,2 39,4

year 610,7 521,1 89,6 546,1 595,3 -49,1

P, E, H in (mm)

Based on Had RM3 PRECIS – result,

For the future scenario A2

For grid-cell with the city of Poznań

CLIMATE Soilmoisture

Cropyield

ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

Example:

The potato yield (ton/ha)as a function of the July and August

precipitations (mm) (Górski,1996).

CLIMATE Healtheffects

0-55-1010-1515-20

0

0-2

2-5

5-10

10-15

15-20

0

0-2

2-5

5-10

0-5

5-10

eu1 resampled

1 2

3 4

Hot days (temp. max>35oC i temp. min>25oC) in the future

1. Average number of hot days in JJA 2. Average duration of hot days spell in JJA

3, 4 Diference of characteristics 1. and 2. (future versus present)

base

d on

Had

RM

3 P

RE

CIS

– r

esul

t

How do we interpret the idea of ENSEMBLES RT6.2:

Sought impact response surfaces: Given T(x,y,t) and P(x,y,t) with daily resolution

for future scenarios Find IMPi(x,y,t), where IMPi is the i-th impact

function, i=1, ..., N

ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

Three groups of problems:

Ensembles of climatic scenarios are not available yet! Problems with real data availability (high costs which

cannot be borne from low ENSEMBLES budget, restrictions, some data – e.g. on impacts – are not available at all – e.g. insurance data are classified).

Scarcity of data on extreme extremes, e. g. 1997 flood in Poland – by far exceeding all other events (hence – one data point only), the same for 2003 heat wave in much of Europe!

ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

Thank you

ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006