By Robert Clifford Policy Analyst New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston A joint project of Commonwealth CorporaBon and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
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By Robert Clifford Policy Analyst New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston A joint project of Commonwealth CorporaBon and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Labor Market Trends in the!Central Mass Region!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
Motivation!
§ Promote beLer public policy by conducBng objecBve research and analysis of regional economic/policy issues.
§ Understand the long-‐term labor force challenges facing the regional labor markets in MassachuseLs.
§ Provide detailed data on labor supply and demand trends to support workforce development policy discussions at a local level.
§ Build off the labor market work of Harrington and Fogg (2008) and the demographics research of Sasser ModesBno (2009, 2010).
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region 2
The Central Mass Region!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region 3
RUTLAND
HOLDEN
WEST BOYLSTON
BOYLSTONHARDWICK
NEW BRAINTREE
OAKHAM
NORTH BROOKFIELD
SP
EN
CE
R
PAXTON
LEICESTER
WORCESTERSHEWSBURY
NORTHBOROUGH
BERLIN
BOLTON
PEPPERELL
GROTON
AYER
HARVARD
STERLING
LANCASTER
BARRE
ASHBY TOWNSEND
SHIRLEY
LUNENBURG
PRINCETON
HUBBARDSTON
TEMPLETONGARDNER FITCHBURG
CLINTON
WESTMINSTERLEOMINSTER
ASHBURNHAMWINCHEDON
WESTBOROUGH
MILLBURY
SUTTON
MILFORDHOPEDALE
MENDON
BLACKSTONE
MILLVILLE
NORTHBRIDGE
GRAFTON
OXFORDCHARLTON
DOUGLASUXBRIDGE
UPTON
WEST BROOKFIELD
WARREN BROOKFIELD
EA
ST
BR
OO
KFIE
LD
AUBURN
WEBSTERDUDLEYSOUTHBRIDGE
STURBRIDGE
Summary!
§ Central Mass was one of the hardest hit regional labor markets in the Great Recession, with job losses and unemployment exceeding statewide rates.
§ Central Mass has the fastest growing populaBon among all regional labor markets and has seen significant gains in educaBonal aLainment in the past decade.
§ A large share of the region’s labor force sBll has only a High School Degree or less. These individuals face significant barriers to full employment.
§ Community Colleges play a sizeable role in the supply of CerBficates and Associate’s Degrees in Central Mass.
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region 4
Outline!
§ Labor Market Performance
§ Labor Supply
§ Labor Demand
§ The Pipeline: EducaBonal Supply of Post-‐Secondary Degrees
October 17, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Southeast Region 5
Labor Market Performance!
§ NaBonal and State Employment Trends
§ Performance of Regional Labor Markets
§ Employment Trends by Industry in Central Mass and MassachuseLs
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region 6
Massachusetts is still far below its peak employment levels of the early 2000’s.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD), ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
8
Central Mass has notably larger shares of employment than the state in Education & Health Services and Manufacturing.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
30.5% 27.2% 24.3%
20.1% 18.3% 20.7%
10.6% 15.2% 13.6%
9.0% 9.8% 10.5%
11.2% 7.9% 9.1%
4.9% 6.5% 5.9%
4.2% 4.3% 3.5%
3.8% 4.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9% 4.5% 1.5% 2.8% 2.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Central Mass MassachuseLs United States
Employment DistribuAon by Supersector, Q4 2011 InformaBon
ConstrucBon
Other Services
Government
Financial AcBviBes
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hospitality
Professional & Business Services Trade, TransportaBon & UBliBes EducaBon & Health Services
Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. 9
Job losses between recessions were concentrated in fewer industries in Central Mass relative to Massachusetts.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
Management of Companies & Enterprises TransportaBon & Warehousing
UBliBes Other Services ConstrucBon
Health Care & Social Assistance Retail Trade
Professional & Technical Services Financial AcBviBes
AccommodaBon & Food Services InformaBon
AdministraBve & Support Services EducaBonal Services
Arts, Entertainment, & RecreaBon Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade Government
Employment Changes, Q4-‐2009 to Q4-‐2011
MassachuseLs Central Mass
Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202. 12
Labor Supply!
§ ResidenBal PopulaBon Changes and CharacterisBcs
§ NaBvity Status, Age, and EducaBon of the Civilian Labor Force
§ Trends and CharacterisBcs of the Unemployed § CommuBng PaLerns
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region 13
Central Mass has had the fastest growing population in the state over the past decade.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
0.7% 0.7%
-‐1.5%
-‐1.0%
-‐0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5% Total ResidenAal PopulaAon Growth
Annual Growth Rate 2000 to 2005-‐2007
Annual Growth Rate 2005-‐2007 to 2008-‐2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) data files, 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Micro Sample (PUMS) data files.
14
Growth in immigrant and minority populations accounted for a majority of the growth in the resident population.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Massachusetts EOLWD, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates.
21
The unemployed in Central Mass are disproportionately younger and have lower levels of educational attainment.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
13.1% 24.8%
18.5%
18.8%
23.2%
18.9%
25.4% 21.8%
15.4% 12.5% 4.4% 3.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Civilian Labor Force Unemployed
Age DistribuAon
Age 65+ Age 55-‐64 Age 45-‐54
Age 35-‐44 Age 25-‐34 Age 16-‐24
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
8.5% 19.9%
27.1%
35.1%
20.7%
20.2% 9.2%
7.3% 22.1%
12.3% 12.4%
5.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Civilian Labor Force Unemployed
EducaAon DistribuAon
Master's degree or more Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Some College, no degree High School Less than High School
22
In both the region and state individuals with lower levels of educational attainment face significant barriers to employment.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
19.2%
10.5%
8.0%
6.5%
4.5%
3.3%
17.9%
10.9%
9.1%
6.0%
5.3%
3.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Less than High School
High School
Some College, no degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree or more MassachuseLs Central Mass
Unemployment Rates by EducaAon, 2008-‐2010
23
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
The Central Mass region is closely tied to neighboring labor markets, with large shares of residents working elsewhere.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files. 24
Number Percent of Total Total number of employed persons living in Central Mass… 332,752 100.00% …that work in: Central Mass 238,002 71.5% Metro South/West 56,392 16.9% Boston/Metro North 11,564 3.5% Northeast 7,105 2.1% Pioneer Valley 5,902 1.8% Other parts of MassachuseLs 3,291 1.0% ConnecBcut 3,412 1.0% Rhode Island 2,696 0.8% Other places outside MassachuseLs 4,388 1.3%
Total number of persons working in Central Mass… 292,812 100.0% …that live in: Central Mass 238,002 81.3% Metro South/West 23,306 8.0% Boston/Metro North 2,859 1.0% Northeast 3,942 1.3% Pioneer Valley 8,718 3.0% Other parts of MassachuseLs 3,148 1.1% ConnecBcut 5,360 1.8% Rhode Island 3,552 1.2% Other places outside MassachuseLs 3,925 1.3%
Net in-‐commuAng -‐39,940 -‐
Labor Demand!
§ EducaBonal ALainment of Employed
§ EducaBonal ALainment and ComposiBon of Industries and OccupaBons
§ Demand for Workers with Post-‐Secondary EducaBon Pre-‐ and Post-‐Recession
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region 25
The educational attainment of those employed in Central Mass region is closer to the average nationwide than statewide.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
12.8% 7.9% 10.6% 7.6% 14.4% 10.7%
28.3% 26.9% 24.0%
22.7%
26.7% 25.7%
20.4% 21.1% 19.2%
18.6%
24.1% 24.0%
8.6% 9.4%
8.1% 8.2%
7.3% 8.5%
18.1% 21.2% 22.9%
25.4%
17.7% 19.9%
11.8% 13.4% 15.1% 17.5% 9.7% 11.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 Central Mass
2008-‐2010
2000 MassachuseLs
2008-‐2010
2000 United States
2008-‐2010
EducaAonal AQainment of Individuals Employed in the Region
Master's degree or more
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Some College, no degree
High School
Less than High School
26
Most industries in the region have small shares of employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, but large shares with “middle-skills”.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
24.0%
11.6%
45.1%
45.4%
37.5%
22.5%
34.9%
27.3%
38.4%
65.9%
20.0%
27.3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Health Care & Social Assistance
EducaBonal Services
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
EducaAonal AQainment of Employees by Selected Major Industries in Central Mass
23.0%
11.7%
42.1%
37.3%
33.2%
15.5%
33.1%
23.8%
43.8%
72.7%
24.8%
38.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Health Care & Social Assistance
EducaBonal Services
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher
EducaAonal AQainment of Employees by Selected Major Industries in MassachuseQs
27
The pattern persists across occupations, although the difference in post-secondary educational attainment is not as large.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.
6.4%
6.4%
35.3%
68.2%
32.4%
17.7%
35.5%
24.7%
61.2%
75.9%
29.2%
7.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Healthcare PracBBoners & Technical
EducaBon, Training, & Library Services
Sales
ProducBon
EducaAonal AQainment of Employees by Selected OccupaAons in Central Mass
6.4%
5.8%
31.5%
65.6%
29.9%
13.2%
31.0%
23.2%
63.8%
81.0%
37.5%
11.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Healthcare PracBBoners & Technical
EducaBon, Training, & Library Services
Sales
ProducBon
High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher
EducaAonal AQainment of Employees by Selected OccupaAon in MassachuseQs
28
Prior to the recession vacancy rates were greater in most of the more highly educated occupations than in the less educated.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region 29
College of the Holy Cross Four-‐Year Private 716 15.1%
Public institutions in Central Mass play a larger role in Certificate and Associate’s Degree completions than statewide.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region
40.5%
79.3%
30.6%
0.0%
25.0%
50.0%
75.0%
100.0%
Central Mass MassachuseLs United States
Share of CompleAons at Public InsAtuAons, 2000
34
44.7%
79.1%
30.8%
0.0%
25.0%
50.0%
75.0%
100.0%
Central Mass MassachuseLs United States
Share of CompleAons at Public InsAtuAons, 2010
CerBficates Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Health Sciences and Services have accounted for most of the Certificates completed in Central Mass.!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region 35
Services Science & MathemaBcs Engineering & Computer Sciences Business Arts, HumaniBes, & Social Sciences
Annual Bachelor’s Degree CompleAons by Major in Central Mass, 2000 to 2010
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.
Summary!
§ The Great Recession led to steep job losses, a slow recovery, and elevated levels of unemployment in Central Mass.
§ Large populaBon growth, stronger gains in the educaBonal aLainment of the civilian labor force, and more muted demographic challenges from an aging labor force, relaBve to the state, are posiBve trends for the Central Mass region.
§ A large share of the region’s labor force have a High School Degree. Such individuals are more likely to be unemployed than those with a post-‐secondary educaBon and face significant barriers to full employment.
§ Given such trends, what should be done to ensure the future economic vitality of the Central Mass region moving forward?
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region 38
Thank You!
October 24, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Central Mass Region