Labor Market Information: Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget Bureau of.

Labor Market Information:

Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan

Michigan Department of Technology, Management & BudgetBureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives

What are some of the key current trends in the Michigan labor market?

What are likely to be some of the key future trends in the Michigan labor market?

For some of Michigan’s key sectors: What are the key factors driving current job demand in those

industries? What may be some of the factors impacting future job demand in

these sectors?

Key Factors Driving Job Demand

Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives, part of the Department of Technology, Management and Budget

Responsible for producing and publishing information and analysis on the Michigan workforce and the state’s regions and counties

Most of our staff is located in Detroit, but a few economic analysts are situated in Lansing and other Michigan regions

Information on employment, unemployment, industry job trends, skill sets, occupations, wages, demographics of the labor pool, etc.

Who We Are…

Key Recent Labor Market Trendsin Michigan

Labor force decline may have bottomed out Michigan workforce levels fell for six consecutive years from 2007-2012 Workforce levels have begun to stabilize this year; and have increased

each of the first six months in 2013

Michigan jobless rate may fall in 2013 for fourth consecutive year, but remains above pre-recessionary level

Far fewer layoffs recently of persons with jobs, but job market remains very competitive for the unemployed

Average duration of unemployment at a very high level; about 41 weeks

Jobless Rate Gap (Michigan vs. U.S.) Has Narrowed Since 2009

Michigan Rate Still Above 2007 Levels

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Michigan United States

Recent Trends in Jobs

Payroll jobs should advance in Michigan in 2013 for the third consecutive year

Michigan job gains over the last several years: Manufacturing Health care Technical services Temporary help services Restaurants Mortgage banking

Job losses primarily in government No evidence yet of job recovery in construction

Recent Trends in Job Openings

Michigan top occupations with online job vacancies: Registered nurses Truck drivers Retail sales workers and managers Industrial engineers Customer service representatives Mechanical engineers Computer systems analysts

Faster openings growth over year in management, professional, installation & repair, construction, health care support, and transportation occupations

Declines over year in clerical and sales job postings Diverse set of industry sectors posting jobs

Potential Future Trends in the Michigan Labor Market

Michigan population and labor force growth expected to be more modest than national average

Aging of the workforce will impact demand for goods and services, and produce job openings for replacement workers

Above average job growth expected for jobs requiring an associate’s, bachelor’s, or master’s degree

Continued “upskilling” of jobs expected in some sectors in terms of educational/training requirements

Additional educational attainment will continue to be associated with lower unemployment rates and higher wages

Michigan Health Care JobsRecord Job Levels in 2013

518,000

526,900530,100

534,500

548,200

557,900

565,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Only sector in Michigan with continuous job expansion even through the recession

Strong job gains in doctor’s offices, hospitals, home health care, social services

Investment in health care technology has created jobs in Michigan

Several prestigious medical centers in Michigan attract patients and conduct medical research

The aging of the Michigan population has generated increased demand for health services

Health CareRecent Factors Driving Job Demand

Continued aging of the population – “Baby-boom” generation will be entirely 55+ by 2020

Health status of the population Emphasis on preventative care and home care could change

dynamics of job demand Continued pace of investment in health care technology Health care labor supply – will need to replace an aging

health care workforce Health care reform and the need for cost containment in

the overall health care system

Health CareFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand

Michigan Professional & Technical Services Jobs

Jobs at Highest Level Since 2002

246,200243,900

220,900222,600

235,000

246,100

254,200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sector is a key source of “knowledge jobs” for the Michigan economy; many high skill–high wage positions

Strong recent job additions in Engineering services, IT services, Research and development

Michigan highly ranked nationally in number and share of science and engineering jobs

Strong recovery of auto industry has promoted much of the recent job expansion in this sector

Increased jobs in business consulting and IT services have benefited by rebound in business investment after recession

Professional & Technical ServicesRecent Factors Driving Job Demand

Michigan’s competitive advantage: A very high current share of jobs in engineering services

Future concentration of white collar technical jobs related to the auto industry

Pace of insourcing or outsourcing of IT functions Technical jobs comprise an increased share of total jobs

across many industries, leading to overall job gains Technical services labor supply

Highly educated with most jobs requiring bachelor’s, associate’s degrees and above

Women are underrepresented in IT and engineering positions

Professional & Technical ServicesFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand

Michigan Manufacturing JobsLed Job Recovery Since Recession

617,300

572,000

463,100473,900

509,700

536,900

549,700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Manufacturing jobs in Michigan Cut in almost half from 1999 to 2009 Sector is top source of job growth over last year in Michigan economy

Recent job expansion primarily reflects strong rebound in domestic auto sales and auto production

Significant levels of investment in Michigan auto assembly operations

Job advances since 2009 reflect both recalls of laid off workers and new hires

Broad gains, with job growth rates of over 25 percent since 2009 in fabricated metals, plastics, primary metals, autos, and machinery manufacturing

ManufacturingRecent Factors Driving Job Demand

Michigan’s competitive advantage: Skilled labor supply in advanced manufacturing production and auto-related design and engineering

Productivity gains and automation will tend to limit long-term job expansion in manufacturing

Pace of insourcing or outsourcing of production work Michigan manufacturing success in export markets Labor supply issues

Production jobs increasingly require technical education and skill Young people will need to be attracted to production occupations to

replace an aging workforce

ManufacturingFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand

Michigan Employment Services JobsRapid Response to Improved Post-Recession

Economic Conditions

154,800

144,200

117,900

129,800

147,500

154,600151,900

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

High sensitivity to economic conditions 24 percent job drop in Michigan from 2007 to 2009 All of this job loss recovered in 2010-2012

Temporary help sector now supplies labor to a wide range of private and public employers

Not all statistics on job gains in this industry reflect new jobs; some reflects a shift in jobs to temporary agencies or professional employer organizations

Temporary help jobs increasingly used in early stages of an economic recovery?

Employment ServicesRecent Factors Driving Job Demand

Will employers increase utilization of a just-in-time labor supply?

Increased staffing flexibility Quality of the temporary workforce and training issues Some workers in temporary jobs may value mobility across

job assignments; others may prefer to migrate into permanent work through a temporary assignment

Temporary workforce now has wider diversity in occupations and skill levels than before

Average weekly wage in employment services only two-thirds of wage for all private sector jobs

Employment ServicesFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand

Michigan Restaurant Industry JobsJobs Rebound to 2007 Levels

309,100

303,000

291,300290,200

293,900

302,400

307,500

270,000

280,000

290,000

300,000

310,000

320,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Recent restaurant sector job growth well above all-industry average June 2012-June 2013

Michigan Total Jobs: +1.4 percent Michigan Restaurant sector jobs: +3.7 percent

Significant gain occurred in 2012 in the number of restaurant establishments in Michigan

Disposable income gains positive in Michigan for 3 consecutive years: 2010: +2.8 percent 2011: +4.2 percent 2012: +3.2 percent

RestaurantsRecent Factors Driving Job Demand

Population growth Overall economic health Disposable income growth Consumer confidence Consumer preferences Interest in local sourcing of food and nutrition

RestaurantsFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand

DTMB Labor Market Information Website

(www.michigan.gov/lmi)

Contains current monthly and quarterly data on the Michigan and regional job markets

Economic data can be downloaded on a customized basis using Data Explorer tool

Many publications with information on regional workforce trends

Employment, unemployment, industries, occupations, forecasts, more

Other Useful Websites

Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov

Census Bureau www.census.gov

American Community Surveywww.census.gov/acs/www

OnTheMaphttp://onthemap.ces.census.gov

Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov

Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan

For additional information:

Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives

Bruce Weaver

Manager of Labor Market Analysis

313.456.3091

[email protected]

Please visit our website at www.michigan.gov/lmi