What is the future for the Labour party in Brexit Britain? Matthew Goodwin @GOODWINMJ
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What is the future for the Labour party in Brexit Britain?
Matthew Goodwin
@GOODWINMJ
One (implausible) future: Labour wins in 2020
Con lead over Labour Con seats Lab seats Others
5.8 327 236 87
0 302 256 92
-3.7 279 278 3
12.5 229 326 95
Source: Pre boundary change projections via John Curtice @whatukthinks
2015 GE
Corbyn Compared – opposition leaders 1980-2016
Source: YouGov/The Times survey September 2016
RIP Social Democracy 1946-2014 (?)
Source: Chris Hanretty. Index based on simple and population-weighed average vote share for social democratic parties in the old EU15
Labour caught in a new culture war
Source: British Social Attitudes Survey 2013
Labour divided?
67
60
39
19
36
1917
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Imms burden on welfare V strongly English (7/7) Equal oppos for EMs gone too far Share of Lab vote
Over 55, GCSE or less
Under 35, degree or more
Source: British Social Attitudes Survey 2013/@robfordmancs
Source: YouGov Sep 30, sample of 2015 Lab voters who said unlikely to vote now
Source: YouGov Sep 30, sample of 2015 Lab voters who said unlikely to vote now
How bad could it get?
Source: Labour Party electoral data + Electoral Calculus forecast based on latest polls for next (2020?) general election
Loads of research in here….
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