Copy 19 f f275 copies " 0 IDA MEMORANDUM REPORT M-14 L2 COST-ESTIMATING RELATIONSHIPS FOR TACTICAL COMBAT AIRCRAFT Joseph W. Stahl Joseph A. Arena Mark 1. Knapp " November 1984 0 MAR 91985 Prepared jor Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering f his document has been approved '- .d ~ ~~~for public release and s le; its | ." " .. , . li i I ~distribution is unlim ite dt"-''- -' - " li~mE 'll INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES 180 N.Beauregard Street, Alexandria, Virginia 22311 ' j . IDA Log No. HO 84-28793 -
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L2 COST-ESTIMATING RELATIONSHIPS FOR TACTICAL …* Observation and Reconnaissance 0 TACTICAL COMBAT AIRCRAFT TYPES Fighter Attack (or Fighter/Bomber) Bomber Tanker r Reconnaissance
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f his document has been approved'- .d ~ ~~~for public release and s le; its | ." " .. ,. li i I ~distribution is unlim ite dt"-''- -' -
" li~mE 'll INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES180 N.Beauregard Street, Alexandria, Virginia 22311
' j . IDA Log No. HO 84-28793 -
4* -
The work reported In this document was conducted under contractMDA 903 84.C 0031 for the Departmnnt of Defense. The publication , -of this IDA Memorandum Report does not indicate endorsement bythe Department of Defense, nor should the contents be construedas reflecting the official position of that agency.
This Memorandum Report Is published in order to make availablethe material it contains for the use and convenience of Interestedparties. The material has not necessarily been completly evaluatedand analyzed, nor subjected to IDA review.
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.
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UNCLASSIFIEDSECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (W'han Data Entiepr
REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE BEFORE COMPLETING FORMI. REPORT NUMBER 2.GOVT ACCESSION NO. 3. RECIPIENT'S CATALOG HUMMER
4. TITLE (and Subtitle) S. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVEREDContributing Analysis..-COTETMTNDELTOSISFROct. 1983 -i Set 1984
TACTICAL COMBAT AIRCRAFT 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMER " -
IDA MEMORANDUM REPORT M-147. AUTHOR(a) S. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMSER(a)
Joseph W. StahlJoseph A. Arena MDA 903 84 C 0031Mark I. Knapp
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS SO. PROGRAM ELEMENT, PROJECT, TASK
Institute for Defense Analyses ARIA&WORK UNIT NUMBERS
1801 North Beauregard Street T-3-150Alexandria, Virginia 22311
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IS. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
IS. KEY WORDS (Continue an revers aide I nocassand Identify by blhnhn.u be)
(!20. ABSTRACT ('ehmtm - ,.erm ob NI meamy aid t de iF yr block number)
This document presents four separate cost-estimating relation-ships (CERs): one each for RDT&E and procurement for helicoptersand fixed-wing aircraft used in tactical air missions. The CERsare functions of such major characteristics as weight, thrust/weight ratio, speed and year of IOC.
,O 1473 ,miTION OF, 1NOV,,, ISoWUoTE UNCLASSIFIEDSECUITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Date Entered)
This memorandum report is part of a broader continuing
program at the Institute for Defense Analyses under the techni-
* cal cognizance of Dr. Paul J. Berenson, Special Assistant for
Assessment, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research
and Engineering, under Task Order T-3-150, dated 23 December 1982.
The broader effort, "NATO/Warsaw Pact Acquisition Balance," has
as its purpose the development of an overview of the US/USSR
technology and acquisition balance.
C
- .... % .* * . :,. . * .*
SUMMARY
IDA Paper P-1790, Joseph A. Arena, Margaret R. Kiselick,
Joseph W. Stahl, A Comparison of US and USSR Tactical Aviation
Activities (U), December 1984 (SECRET), compares trends of the Sproduction quantities, average chronological age, average
technological age, force weights, research, development, test
and engineering, procurement and inventory costs for US and
USSR tactical combat aircraft. This memorandum report presents
cost-estimating relationships developed to produce these data.
New cost-estimating relationships were needed:
" to update earlier methodologies for calculating* US aircraft data, and'
" to expand the methodology so that Soviet aircraftcould be assessed by using generally observablecharacteristics, since detailed information mayoften not be available.
Four cost-estimating relationships were developed:
* research, development, test and engineering forboth helicopters and fixed-wing fighter and attackaircraft, and
* procurement (and inventory cost when combined withforce levels) for both helicopters and fixed-wingfighter and attack aircraft.
So that US and Soviet aircraft comparisons could be made,
as a standard, the cost of Soviet aircraft acquisition was set -- "-
to •be the same cost the United States would incur had the ac-
quisition been that of the US military-industrial organization.
aSrust (total maximumn thrust at sea level in pounds) was obtained directlyfor Jet powered aircraft. For piston engine/propeller powered aircraft,thrust was calculated at 2.49 pounds per shaft horsepower; for turbineengine/propeller powered aircraft, it was calculated at 2.34 pounds perequivalent shaft horsepower.
bDefense Contractor's Planning Report (DCPR) weight is defined as the .empty weight of the airplane less (1) wheels, brakes, tires and tubes,(2) engines, (3) starter, (4) cooling fluid, (5) rubber or nylon fuelcells, (6) instruments, (7) batteries and electrical power supply andconversion equipment, (8) electronic equipment, (9) turret mechanism and
* power operated gun mounts, (10) remote fire mechanism and sighting andscanning equipment, (11) air conditioning units and fluid, (12) auxiliarypower plant unit, and (13) trapped fuel and oil. In those cases whereDCPR weight was not directly available, it was derived from empty weightby use of the following relationships [2]:
eActual total RIYT&E cost in millions of FY 1985 TOA dollars. Missing
entries not available (n.a.).
fCumulative average flyaway cost for 400 aircraft in millions of FY 1985dollars TOA based on actual programs. Cumulative average learning curve
t slope of 0.92 was used, where 0.92 is the ratio of cumulative averagecosts at a production level of 2n units to the cumulative average cost ata production level of n units.
To calculate the cost of n aircraft fran the cost in the table for 400aircraft:
Drocedure for rotary-wing aircraft yielded closer agreement
between estimated and actual costs than the method for estimating
fixed-wing aircraft costs. The estimating procedure satisfied
* Table 5. ROTARY-WING AIRCRAFT RDT&E COSTS: DISTRIBUTIONAS A FRACTION OF TOTAL RELATIVE TO IOC YEAR
Cost CostYear Fraction Year Fraction
-11 .018 -5 .174
-10 .035 -4 .154-9 .054 -3 .115
-8 .081 -2 .062 1
-7 .124 -1 .019
-6 .159 IOC .005Total 1.000
500
400
S300
.. 200
1968 70 72 74 76 78 80 62 84 196
g~m..'.'MID CALENDAR YEAR
Figure 12. ROTARY-WING AIRCRAFT RDT&E COST:"ESTIMATED VS. ACTUAL ANNUAL COST,
1968-1987
19
Table 6. RDT&E COST FOR FIVE ROTARY-WING AIRCRAFT, 1968-1987
CostItem (Millions 1985)
Actual Total Cost $ 3,570
Estimated Total Cost 3,581
Difference (- 0.3 percent) - $ 11
Range of Annual Differences +$125 to -$67
Mean of Absolute Annual $ 31Differences
the objective of producing estimates of rotary-wing aircraft
annual aggregated RDT&E costs with trends that match actual costs.
C. ESTIMATION OF ANNUAL PROCUREMENT COSTS -
1. Fixed-Wing Aircraft Flyaway Costs
a. Development of CER. The cumulative average flyawaycosts 4 and quantities of 14 aircraft that were designed for
1 fighter and attack missions were normalized for a production
quantity of 400 aircraft. Included are the F-4, F-5, F-14,
F-15, F-16, F-18, F-100, F-101, F-102, F-104, F-105, F-106,P-Ill and A-10 (See Table 1).
The normalized costs were then regressed against various
(additive and multiplicative) combinations of the aircraft
characteristics. Total thrust, DCPR weight, speed, thrust/DCPR
4Department of Defense Instruction 5000.33 dated August 15, 1977 S[21] states that "flyaway is used as a generic term related tothe creation of a usable end item of hardware/software."Flyaway cost includes: "elements of Major System Equipment(such as basic structure, propulsion, electronics, includingGovernment Furnished Equipment, etc.), System/Project Manage-ment, and System Test Evaluation."
CH-46, CH-3, UH-60, AH-64, AH-IT, CH-47, CH-53 A/D, CH-54, andCH-53E. Only attack, observation, and electronic warfare heli-
copters were included as tactical combat aircraft. However, in
order to obtain more data points trainer, utility, and cargo
helicopter programs have been included in the data base. For
each helicopter, the cumulative average flyaway costs were
normalized at a production quantity of 400 helicopters (see
Table 4).
The normalized costs were then regressed against various
combinations of empty weight, DCPR weight, total shaft horse-
power, speed, time (OC date) and a dummy variable representing
attack helicopters. The CER without the time term provided a
closer match of estimated cost to actual flyaway cost. Accord-
C ingly, the following CER was used in developing helicopter
flyaway costs:
FLY = 2.6(l)- 3 (SHP)0' 93
where "'FLY - Cumulative average flyaway cost at 400 aircraft
in millions of FY 1985 TOA dollars.
SHP = Total maximum shaft horsepower.
Figure 16 illustrates the degree of fit between estimated and
actual cumulative average cost at 400 aircraft of the 17 heli-
copter programs on a linear scale.
23 H. .
* 16.0KA ESTIMATEOT
ATUALn6000K
'a20M
ESIMTE VS. ACUL-OMOI
O-1
2014
0~~~ ON_ ___-- -
ESIMTD US ACTA--COMPOSIE
18 C
IL~I 121 N-ov13 CN-5A
2 - 1 NIT .
0 2 4 6 1 Is 12 14 Is is
ACTUJAL
Figure 16. ROTARY-WING AIRCRAFT FLYAWAY COST:( ESTIMATED VS. ACTUAL--BY MODEL
(Millions of 19085 dollars)
2L4
- - . ~ ------.---- w- - '~-' . .- +- ,
b. Validation of Estimating Procedure. The actual and
estimated annual aggregated flyaway costs of four rotary-wing
aircraft (including one projected aircraft) for which the neces-
sary cost data were available are shown in Figure 17. The
estimating procedures for rotary-wing aircraft annual aggregate 9
flyaway costs produced estimates having trends, turning points
and magnitudes that were representative of the actual costs.
*|3. Aircraft Procurement Costs
a. Development of Procurement-to-Flyaway Cost Ratios.
Estimated flyaway costs were converted into estimated procure-
ment costs through the use of Service-peculiar, procurement-to-
flyaway cost ratios. Relationships more elaborate than ratios
were excluded to eliminate the need to allocate fixed cost
components or to compensate for non-linear relationships.
0I
low.
_IESI I_"_""
ItI
225
.-
Fi ur17 ROAR-WN AIRCRAFT ACTUA S.ETMAE-ANA
a *. -. .
0
Navy/Marines and Air Force. Data were not readily avail-
able to determine the direct relationship between annual pro-
curement and flyaway costs; therefore, the ratio was developed
in three steps:
1. The total actual weapon system costs of selected 0
samples of fixed-wing aircraft were divided by the
corresponding total actual flyaway costs. The weapon
system/flyaway cost ratios average 1.17 for the Navy/
Marines, and 1.16 for the Air Force. S
2. The total aircraft procurement appropriation for Navy/
Marine Aviation, and Air Force tactical aircraft
was divided by the corresponding total actual weapon
system cost over the time periods for which data were p
available. The procurement/weapon system cost ratioswere 1.60 for the Navy and Marines, and 1.83 for the
Air Force.
3. The procurement/flyaway cost ratios were determined by
multiplying the two component factors. The Navy/
Marines ratio was (1.17)(1.60) - 1.88.5 The Air Force
ratio was (1.16)(1.83) - 2.12.
Army. The ratio of Army Aviation annual procurement/flyaway
costs selected for our estimate was 1.62. The figure was the
average for 1964-1985, excluding 1972-1975 when funds for buying
new helicopters (i.e., flyaway) were less than $50 million. In-
cluding figures for those years would clearly distort the estimate.
b. Validation of the Factors. Plots of the actual and
estimated procurement costs for each Service are shown in
Figure 18. The congruence of the curves is an indicator of
how well the estimated factors converted actual flyaway and
L 5 Apparent discrepancy is due to rounding.
26
C _
6000___ A. ARMY AVIAION (ALL AIRCRAFT)FY 1965 ElIMATE= 1.62 x (ACTUAL FLYAWAY)*
-ACTUAL .-
L NAVY AVIATION (ALL AICRAFT)10,000
FY 1985
I'"
( ACTUAL
ESlMAE - 1.60x (ACTUAL WEAPON SYSTIEM)
201.
I. .. .
C. AU FORCE (13 FIXED WIM A/C)
III'IFY 1985 .. ....
4i /
E8TIMATE= 1.88x (ACTUAL WEAPON SYSTEM)"
lo1 16 1670 1275 1g0 165
M CALENDAR YEAR*• aW d" ysum a "amwa 1iw' m am by m da.a'
Figure 18. ACTUAL VS. ESTIMATED ANNUAL PROCUREMENTCOST, BY SERVICE, 1960-1985
27C"o- .
weapon system costs to estimates of the procurement costs. Theestimates closely matched the turning points and the medium andlong term trends of the actual procurement costs.
28.
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p-.p
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2811i~-
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Office or the Uinder Secretary of Defense MAfecad Research projects AnprcyDefense Thr Research & Enginesrin Domint control Point, Roce 651Rom VD139. Petao 1400 Wilson Bklvd.wasahlzwton, DC 20301 Arlington, VA 22209
tUnder secretary of Defense for Resarch & Engineering DirectorAssistant Secretary Of Defense Director, Tactical Tecdmo1oc
0 Director, Air Warfare Tactical Air ForcsDirector, Lamd Warfare Deputy Director (Theater Asessments 4 Planning)Director, Naval Warfare N obility Deputy Director (Resource Anailysis)
Director, Defense Test & EvaluationAssistant Under Secretary Of Defaeri Defense Security Assistance Agency(Plane & Dvelpmnt) Room 4t 1, Rinta.onAssistant tinder Secretary Of Defense Washington, DC 20301(Conventional Initiatives)Special Assistant for Asseesment Director or operations
Office of The Uinder Secretary of Defese for Policy Office or the Joint Qilefs of StaffRoos 4IB25, Pentagon Diatributions Brsad GAP Division DABWashington, DC 20301 Washington, DO 20301
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Deputy Assistant Secretary Force Plumning & ptvgrwng(Intermticne l Monanic and FOeray Affairs) Joint Anlyis DirectorateAssistant Secretary of Defense
(International Security Policy) DirectorDirector, Net Asasmnt Defense macleer AgencyOffice of the Secretary of Defense Wshington. DC 20305Rowm 3A930, PentagonWashington, DC 20301 Cmmnder, Headquarters Pild Cmad
Defense maleer AgencyOfficer or the Secretary of Defamse Kirtland APR, NK 87115
IL OUSM1 (DoO-rDA Megoent Office)1801 N. keswerd St.Alexandria, VA 22311
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Director Cetral Intelligence AgencyDeter.. Cmmuications Aic, Wechilghe, DO 20505meMton. DO 20305 MDefense IntlliMMceI AgencY Office ot Scientitic end Weapons RaeeachDeparmnt at Defens Office at Soviet Anaysis
Director * Prcm, S&T USSAssistant Vice Director for Estiontes Natioal IntellIgence Office for.
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Office or the Assistant Secretary of the ArmyDirector. Thkverity Research Directorate (Rlesearch Deveomnt & Acquisition)
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DePartmeent Or the Army ATAA-CIRm 3074, PentagonWashington, DO 20310 U. S. Army Material Cmii
5001 Risechoer Avs.Deputy Quiaf of Staff for Resarch. Develpmnt Alaaendria, VA 223
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fln Comtroller of the Army U. S. Army Foreign oled & Technology CunterDegetmnt of the ArmW 200 Sewfth St~e, N. R.
0Room 29W., Fetmon Charlttiwil, VA 22901
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AwLibritryR-m 1A522, Penatagcn UPARW OF MW%whUngOn, DC 20310
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(Mdpbdliz AraqgIatice)DirectorU. 3. Army Air RNlity R&D laboratory Office or the Asseamt Scretary of the ReapAM reeserda Cnter (Reear&A& aWzrnoring & Spaein)c Itfett Field, CA 94035 om D8.F*w
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lairgton, DC 20350DirectorU. 3. Army Material Sytam AnIaal Activity ChIef of Novel O2peration$Aberdeen Proving Orcead, MD 21M0 Deputy COdef at Revel OperatIce (Air Warfare)
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