L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y cover box Global change information needs for decision makers dealing with food security Walter E. Baethgen Maxx Dilley International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) The Earth Institute Columbia University
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L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
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Global change information needs for decision makers
dealing with food security
Walter E. Baethgen Maxx Dilley
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) The Earth InstituteColumbia University
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
Decision Makers (including Policy makers): Extremely Heterogeneous Community (like “Users”)
Different Decision Makers require different Information(demanded information is also extremely heterogeneous)
Global / International ... Country ... Village
Global change information needs for decision makers dealing with food security
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
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Example: Climate Change Information
Typically: Food security maps for 2050’s- 2080’s
Global change information needs for decision makers dealing with food security
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
Season Length 1961-90
Season Length 2080’s
Multiple cropping zones 1961-90
Multiple cropping zones 2080
Rainfed cereals: CC Impacts 2080’s
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
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Global change information needs for decision makers dealing with food security
Food Security Maps at Global Level:
•Excellent for COP negotiators (UNFCCC)
•Excellent for increasing general awareness
•Useful for UN-type organizations (FAO, UNDP, WB, IFPRI)
At Country Level:
•Place Climate Change as a “Problem of the Future”
•Beyond the agenda of Decision / Policy Makers (2080’s)
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
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Global change information needs for decision makers dealing with food security
At Country Level:
Most commonly, Global information is not easily applicable
1. Degree of Uncertainty
2. Full agenda with immediate-term issues (vs 2050’s) requiring immediate action.
Challenge:
Overcome the “Incompatibility” of Time Frames
Introduce Global Change Issues in Development Agenda
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
Global change information needs for decision makers dealing with food security
Overcoming the “Incompatibility” of Time Frames
1. Climate Change is happening now (vs 2050’s, 2080’s)
2. Climate change is affecting and will continue to affect societies through increased Climate Variability often including more frequent and more damaging Extreme Events (droughts, floods, etc.)
PremisePremise
One of the most effective ways for assisting agricultural stakeholders to be prepared and prepared and
adapt to possible adapt to possible Climate ChangeClimate Change scenariosscenarios,
is by helping them to better cope with current better cope with current
Climate VariabilityClimate Variability
Overcomes time frame Incompatibility:
Actions are needed within Policy Makers term
Results of actions can be verified also within the PM term
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
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Global change information needs for decision makers dealing with food security
Examples ofInformation that can assist Decision Makers at
Country (or smaller) scale
Decision Support tools tailored for different Policy Makers
but focused on Climate Variability
and
its impacts (on food security and other)
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
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A few common features of Decision Support Systems with shown success:
Understanding the past effects (linking CV, crop yields, responses, etc)
Strong component: MONITORING (measuring) the present
Adequate and understandable FORECASTS
Risk Assessment / Risk Management Approach
Understanding the Baseline:
Measuring food security
Slides courtesy T. Boudreau, Food Economy Group/FEWS)
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Climate Change/Variability impacts on food security
Assess Past Impacts
Develop good Monitoring
Improve Forecasts / Scenarios
Explore/Propose Responses
Forecasting food security variables from climate models,
Oct-Dec season(climate prediction research by M. Indeje, IRI)
The following slides show "hindcast" and
forecast skill between observed and predicted
rainfall values for October-December for high-
skill areas in the Greater Horn of Africa
(Prediction skill for March-May or June-September is lower)
Corr_coef. = 0.8
Model -MOS CORRECTED
OBSERVATION
Statistically corrected ECHAM4 GCMOct-Dec precipitation to a station
Correlation between statistically corrected climate model output and observed rainfall, Oct-Dec
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
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Still one step is needed:
Results are expressed in “terms” that Decision Makers do not use (e.g., Rainfall)
Need to “Translate” information to the same
terms that Decision Makers use
(crop yields, pasture availability, water in reservoirs, etc.)
NDVI forecast skill, Oct-Dec
Correlation between:
1. GCM precipitation for October-December (runs from September*)
2. December NDVI values.
(Eastern Kenya r=0.74)
(*) persisted-SST and 850mb
zonal wind forecasts
COF11 – Forecast Crop Conditions at End of Season
Actual Crop Conditions at End of Season
Slide Courtesy G. Galu
Predicting end-of-season crop conditions using the Water
Requirements Satisfaction Index
Translating Climate Information into Food Security Information
Regional food security outlooks based on climate forecast-derived projections of crop yields, livestock condition and other food security-related variables, and use as input into a livelihoods-based food security analysis
Involving the Decision Makers:
•Developing Trust
•Affecting / Changing Decisions
•Assisting policies
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
December 1999 January 2000 February 2000
November 1999October 1999
Example in Uruguay
Decision Support SystemProvided this Information to MAF and to NationalEmergency System(Evolution of the Drought)
IMPORTANCE of MONITORING
19 January 23 March
Volume Changes in Water Reservoirs during the 1999/2000 drought
(prepared for the National Emergency System)
Example in Northern Uruguay
Remote Sensing
Ing. Juan Notaro, Uruguayan Minister of Agriculture in 1999/2000
(Letter to our INIA-IFDC-NASA Project)
"(...) The results of your work during the recent drought wereuseful for making both, operational and political decisions. From the operational standpoint, your work allowed us to concentrate our efforts in the regions highlighted as being the ones with the worst and longest water deficit. We prioritized those identified regions for concentrating the use of our resources, both financial aid and machines for dams, water reservoirs, etc.
(...) From the strictly political standpoint, your work provided us with objective information to defend our prioritization of regions, in a moment in which every governor, politician and farmer in the country was asking for aid. We received no complaints in this respect. In the same line, your work also allowed to mitigate pressures since we provided the press and the general public with transparent, technically sound and precise information”.
Ing. Juan Notaro, Uruguayan Minister of Agriculture in 1999/2000
(Letter to our INIA-IFDC-NASA Project)
"(...) The results of your work during the recent drought wereuseful for making both, operational and political decisions. From the operational standpoint, your work allowed us to concentrate our efforts in the regions highlighted as being the ones with the worst and longest water deficit. We prioritized those identified regions for concentrating the use of our resources, both financial aid and machines for dams, water reservoirs, etc.
(...) From the strictly political standpoint, your work provided us with objective information to defend our prioritization of regions, in a moment in which every governor, politician and farmer in the country was asking for aid. We received no complaints in this respect. In the same line, your work also allowed to mitigate pressures since we provided the press and the general public with transparent, technically sound and precise information”.
The results of your work during the recent drought were
useful for making both, operational and political decisions.
Ing. Juan Notaro, Uruguayan Minister of Agriculture in 1999/2000
(Letter to our INIA-IFDC-NASA Project)
"(...) The results of your work during the recent drought wereuseful for making both, operational and political decisions. From the operational standpoint, your work allowed us to concentrate our efforts in the regions highlighted as being the ones with the worst and longest water deficit. We prioritized those identified regions for concentrating the use of our resources, both financial aid and machines for dams, water reservoirs, etc.
(...) From the strictly political standpoint, your work provided us with objective information to defend our prioritization of regions, in a moment in which every governor, politician and farmer in the country was asking for aid. We received no complaints in this respect. In the same line, your work also allowed to mitigate pressures since we provided the press and the general public with transparent, technically sound and precise information”.
your work provided us with objective information to defend our prioritization of regions, in a moment in which every governor, politician and farmer in the country was asking for aid.
Involving the Decision Makers (2):
Move from “Supply” Approach
To
“Demand Driven” Approach
RegionalOutlookMeetings
IRI
NOAA
ECMWF
Others
Nat. ClimateRes. Ctrs.
IFDCINIA
NASAUn.Fla.QSLD
Tech. Reps.
Agri-Business
MAF Planning Policies
NGOs
Gov.Organiz.
Growers
Local Outlook
Loc
alO
utlo
ok
Needs (Variables, Timing, Tools)
Tools(IDSS)
ENSO and “Global” Climate
Forecasts
RegionalOutlook
MediaInternet
IAI
Met. Service
Workshops(Quarterly)
Pilot Project IFDC/INIA/NASA: Climate Forecast Applications in Agriculture
“TWG”
InsuranceCredit
Nat. ClimateRes. Ctrs.
IFDCINIA
NASAUn.Fla.QSLD
Tech. Reps.
Agri-Business
MAF Planning Policies
NGOs
Gov.Organiz.
Growers
Local Outlook
Needs (Variables, Timing, Tools)
Tools(IDSS)
Workshops(Quarterly)
“TWG”
InsuranceCredit“Hands-on” Training (Education) for Users
(CC, CV, probabilities, role of FCSTs, risks)
Demand for Researchers (info and tools)
DS Tools:
Risk AssessmentRiskManagement
“Users”
Who are the “clients”?
MinistriesAgro, Health,Water
InsuranceCredit
NGOsAdvisers
DS Tools:
Risk AssessmentRiskManagement
“Users”
InsuranceCredit
NGOsAdvisers
(Pilot Projects: Keep on track)
“Users”
MinistriesAgro, Health,Water
DS Tools:
Risk AssessmentRiskManagement
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
Final Comments
Introduce Climate Change in current agendas overcoming time frame incompatibilities:
•CC is a current problem•CV approach
Translate Climate information to the terms that Decision Makers use to make decisions
Develop Decision Support Systems (Risk Assessment/Risk Managementapproach) that assist:
•Understanding the past•Monitoring the present•Forecasting the future (probabilitistic scenarios)
Involve Decision Makers from the start (Demand-driven approach)
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t yL i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y
Thank you!
Walter E. Baethgen Maxx Dilley
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction