Kwartalnik 'Studia Regionalne i Lokalne' - Urban renewal and ...studreg.uw.edu.pl/dane/web_sril_files/592/2017_3_bieda.pdfNr 3(69)/2017 ISSN 1509–4995 doi: 10.7366/1509499536901

Agnieszka BiedaAGHUniversityofScienceandTechnology,DepartmentofGeomatics,ul.Mickiewicza30, 30-059Kraków;e-mail:[email protected]

uRban Renewal and the value of Real pRopeRtieS*

Abstract: Thearticleaims toverify therelationshipbetween thevalueof realestateandurbanrenewal.Theanalysiswasconducted forundeveloped landproperties tradedbetween2006and2014.Inthatperiod,atimetrendwassetfortherealestatefromtheareascoveredbytheLocalRevitalizationProgrammesandtheareaslocatedintheirimmediatevicinity.TheobservedtrendsofthechangeswerecomparedwiththoseoccurringatthesametimethroughoutKrakow,aswellasintheareasspecifiedintheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakowaspotentialrevitalizationcomplexes, forwhichno localrevitalizationprogrammeswereeventuallyprepared.Inaddition,theauthoranalyzedhowtransactionpricesweredistributedinspaceoverthespecificyears.TheobtainedlandvaluemapswerecomparedwiththerecordsofthedocumentswhichformedthebasisfortheurbanrenewalofKrakow.

Keywords:LocalRevitalizationProgramme,landvaluemap,UrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakow,urbanrenewal,realestatevalue,timeseries

Rewitalizacja pRzeStRzeni miejSkiej a wartość nieruchomości

Streszczenie: Celemartykułujestsprawdzenieistnieniazależnościpomiędzywartościąnierucho-mościadziałaniamirewitalizacyjnymi.Analizęprzeprowadzonodlanieruchomościgruntowychniezabudowanych, które były przedmiotem obrotu w latach 2006–2014.W przyjętym okresieustalonotrendczasowydlanieruchomościzobszarówobjętychlokalnymiprogramamirewitali-zacjiorazterenówpołożonychwichbezpośrednimsąsiedztwie.Zaobserwowanetendencjezmianporównanoztymi,jakiezachodziływtymsamymczasiewcałymKrakowieoraznaobszarachopisanychwMiejskimProgramieRewitalizacjiKrakowajakopotencjalnezespołyrewitalizacyjne,dlaktórychostatecznienie sporządzono lokalnychprogramówrewitalizacji.Dodatkowospraw-dzono,jakwwybranychlatachcenytransakcyjnerozkładałysięwprzestrzeni.Otrzymanemapycennościporównanozzapisamidokumentów,napodstawiektórychwykonywanajestrewitalizacjiKrakowa.

Słowa kluczowe:LokalnyProgramRewitalizacji,mapacenności,MiejskiProgramRewitalizacjiKrakowa,rewitalizacjaprzestrzenimiejskiej,wartośćnieruchomości,szeregiczasowe

A R T Y K U Ł Y

* Thisstudyhasreceivedthefinancialsupportfromthestatutoryresearchno.11.11.150.006.

Studia Regionalne i LokalneNr 3(69)/2017

ISSN 1509–4995doi: 10.7366/1509499536901

AGNIESZKABIEDA6

1. Introduction

It is stated in (Herbst 2008) that “revitalization is a word with a long his-tory”.Theconceptofrevitalizationoriginatedin theUnitedStatesofAmericainthemid-twentiethcentury,anditwasprimarilyconcernedwiththeactivitiesundertakenbythelocaladministrationcooperatingwithprivatecompanies.Thiscooperationwasaimedateconomicrevitalizationofspecificareasandincreasingtheincometherefrom(Petersenetal.2002).TheexampleoftheUnitedStateswas followed bymany countrieswhere urban renewal became a standard formanagingneglectedneighbourhoods(Herbst2008).ThemostfamousexamplesoftheEuropeanredevelopmentsincludetheregenerationoftheLondondocks(Kaczmarek 1991) and theKreuzberg district inBerlin (Małkowski,Woźniak2004).Theconceptofrevitalizationhasrecentlybeenmakingasuddencareeralso

inPoland.However,thereisashortageofbasicframeworksorinstrumentsthatwouldfacilitategoodredevelopment(Herbst2008).Thefirstnormativeactonrevitalizationintherankofalawenteredintoforceattheendof2015(Act2015).This,however,doesnotdecreasetheimportanceoftheurbanrenewalcarriedoutinPolandearlier.Revitalizationisaprocessundertakeninthepublicinterest.Itconcernsspa-

tial,technical,socialandeconomicchangesinaregeneratedarea(Chmielewski2016).Itspurposeistoincreasetheattractivenessofthisareaforitsresidentsandpotentialinvestors(Jadach-Sepioło2016).Itsaimistosaveanareaaffectedbyrecessionaryconditionsbyrestoringold

functionsorintroducingnewones,whichwillcreateconditionsforfurtherde-velopmentof the revitalizedareausing its currentdevelopment (Chmielewski2016).Inthelattercase,degradedareasareusuallysubjecttorevitalization,es-peciallyindustrialareasandwarehouses,post-industrialwastelandfillsites,post-miningareas,aswellasformerrailwayandmilitaryareas.Takingintoaccountfrequentchangesoflegislationrelatedtobroadlyunder-

stoodspatialeconomyandthepaceofcivilizationdevelopment,itseemsnaturalthatthesameareaoftenchangesitsintendedpurposeandfunction(Adamczyk,Bieda2014).Fromthefinancialpointofview,degradedareasarethebestsitesto initiatesuchventures,as themainmotivatingfactor forpost-industrialpro-jectsisthelowvalueoflandresultingfromrelativelyhighrevitalizationcosts(Konowalczuk,Ramian2008)aswellaslowliquidityintherealestatemarket(Jadach-Sepioło2016).Themainmeasureofrevitalization’seffectsisprimarilyanincreaseinthenum-

berofworkplacesintheregeneratedarea.Inaddition,conclusionscanbedrawnfromthebehaviourofthepeopleresidingintherevitalizedspace(Chmielewski2016)andfromtheaesthetizationofurbanspaces(Palickietal.2015).Itmaybestatedthaturbanrenewaliseffectiveiftherearepeopleintherevitalizedspacewhowanttostaythere,andtogetherwithchangesintheirappearance,commer-cialandserviceoffers,standardsimproveandthespacebecomesmorediverse,actsofvandalismarescarce,thereisorder,thesurroundingsaretakencareof,

URBANRENEWALANDTHEVALUEOFREALPROPERTIES 7

andtheareaismoreaestheticandseemssafer.However,measuringtheeffectsofrevitalizationisverycomplex(Sztando2008).Therefore,thearticleaimstover-ifywhetherthereisarelationshipbetweenrealestatevalueandurbanrenewal,whichcouldbeusedasameasureoftheresultsofrevitalization.Althoughrecognizedstudiespointtovariousindiceswhichshouldbetaken

intoaccountforrealestatemarketanalysis(Dąbrowski2009), therelationshipbetweenrealpropertyvalueandtheprocessofrevitalizationhaspreviouslybeenanalyzed on individual examples by (Emery 2006), (Palicki 2013) (Olbińska2014)(Palicki,Rącka2016).Thesestudiesdonotcoverwholecities,however.Theinfluenceofactivitiesrelatedtotheestablishmentoflocallaw,whichisthebasisonwhichtheprocessofurbanrenewaliscarriedout,hasnotbeenverifiedeither.Theanalyzedresearchstudiescoverundevelopedrealestateintendedforresi-

dentialdevelopment,subjecttopropertylaws.Ithasbeenstatedthattheanalysisusing land informationwillbesufficientbecause thevalueof this typeof realestateusuallychangesintimeandspace,analogouslytoothertypesofrealestate(c.f.researchstudies–Żelazowski2008).

2. Urban renewal in Krakow

The issue of urban renewal was already tackled in Krakow in the 1990s(Świerczewska-Pietras2008).Thefirst revitalizationprogrammewaspreparedintheyears1993–1994forKazimierz,thehistoricalpartofKrakow,incoopera-tionwithEdinburgh andBerlinunder theEuropeanUnionprogrammeECOS(EuropeanEnvironmentalCitizensOrganisationforStandardisation).Subsequentprojectsconcernedtherevitalizationofthefollowingpost-industrialareas:− Branice,formanyyearslocatedwithintheboundariesoftheprotectionzoneofTadeuszSendzimirSteelworks,

− theso-called“WhiteSeas”,whichistheKrakowSodaFactory“Solvay”loca-tedbetweentwodistrictsofKrakow:BorekFałęckiandŁagiewniki,

− Zabłocie,degradedbothsocially(reducednumberofworkplaces)andspatially(dilapidatedemptybuildings)aftertheshutdownofmanyofitsbusinesses.Ofthesethreeareas,onlyZabłociewasgrantedarevitalizationprogramme.It

wasadoptedonOctober25,2006(Resolution2006).Thecurrent revitalizationactivities in the city arebasedonResolutionNo.

XCII/926/05oftheKrakowCityCouncilof26October2005ontheelaborationof theUrbanRevitalizationProgramme– theLocalRevitalizationProgramme(LPR).Accordingtothetermscontainedtherein,therevitalizationprogrammeinquestioncoverstheentirecity.Therefore,asaresultoftheresolution,adocumentwaspreparedwhichwascalledtheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakow(MPRK).ThescheduleforitsimplementationisshowninTable1.

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Tab. 1. Planned implementation schedule of the Resolution on the elaboration of the Urban Revitalization Programme for Krakow – the Local Revitalization Programme

Date Task28 February 2006 Presentation of the premises for the Revitalization Programme to

the City Council31 July 2006 Conducting social consultations30 September 2006 Presentation of the project of the Revitalization Programme to the

City Council

Source: own study based on (Resolution 2005).

Followingtheschedule,ateamofexpertsdevelopedthepremisesfortheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakowandthenselectedeightareaswhichshouldbeincludedintheurbanrenewalinthefirstplace(Świerczewska-Pietras2008).Theseareaswereselectedusing thecriteria takendirectly from the IntegratedRegionalDevelopmentOperational Programme for the years 2004–2006.Theareasqualifiedforrevitalizationwerecharacterizedbyatleastthreeofthefol-lowingtraits,verifiedforthewholecountry:− highunemploymentrateamongtheinhabitants,− highlevelofpovertyanddifficultlivingconditions,− highlevelofcrime,− lowlevelofeducationoftheinhabitants,− lowlevelofentrepreneurshipoftheinhabitants,− highleveloftechnicaldegradationoftheinfrastructureandbuildings,− highlevelofenvironmentalpollution.Figure1illustratestheboundariesoftheareasselectedbytheexperts.Their

characteristicsaredemonstratedinTable2.

Fig. 1. Revitalization areas selected in the Urban Revitalization ProgrammeSource: own study based on the data provided by the Geodetic and Cartographic Documentation Centre in Krakow and the City Development Department of the City of Krakow.


Tab. 2. Revitalization areas selected in the Urban Revitalization Programme

Designation RangeI Old Town, Kleparz, Piasek, Nowy Świat, Stradom, Wesoła Zachód, Kazimierz,

part of Grzegórzki Zachód and Półwsie ZwierzynieckieII Stare Podgórze, Zabłocie, Mateczny, Bonarka, Krakus Mound, Heltmana, part

of Grzegórzki Wschód and Grzegórzki Północ, Plaszow Pond (Płaszów)III Zakrzówek, Dębniki Zachód, Przegorzały Wschód and Przegorzały Południe

(Polnych Kwiatów/Ks. Józefa)IV Krowodrza Południe, southern part of Krowodrza Wschód and Północ, Azory

Wschód, northern part of Bronowice Małe Wschód, Krowodrza Nowa Wieś (western part), Nowa Wieś Południe (western part), Małe Błonie (north-eastern part), Czarna Wieś (western part)

V All urban units of the old part of Nowa Huta, Na Skarpie (Nowa Huta Me-adows), Mogiła (eastern part)

VI Płaszów (Bagry Lake), industrial and railway areas (Zarzecze, Rybitwy, Pod-gaje)

VII Borek Fałęcki Wschód, Łagiewniki (Sanctuary of Divine Mercy/White Seas)VIII Tadeusz Sendzimir Steelworks, Mogiła Wschód (north-eastern part), Pleszów-

-Kujawy (northern part), Branice (northern part)

Source: (Urban Revitalization Programme 2008).

Therevitalizationareasoccupyatotalofabout5677ha,whichisabout17.4%oftheareaofKrakow.InOctober2006, thecompetition foraconceptof theUrbanRevitalization

Programmewassettled.ThedraftversionoftheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakowwaspresentedforconsultationinAugust2007.Unfortunately,itco-incidedwiththepublicationbytheMałopolskaProvinceOfficeof“Methodologyofpreparationandevaluationof therevitalizationprogramundertheRegionalOperationalProgramforMałopolskafortheyears2007–2013”(Świerczewska-Pietras2008).Thisdocumentcalledfor the identificationofdegradedareas incitieswithmorethan20000inhabitants,forwhichseparaterevitalizationpro-grammesshouldbedeveloped.Asaresult,theUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeservedasabasisforthepreparationofLocalRevitalizationProgrammesforse-lected areas ofKrakow (UrbanRevitalizationProgramme2008). PrioritywasgiventotheareaoftheOldTownwithintheso-calledSecondRingRoadandStarePodgórze, theoldpartofNowaHutawiththeneighbouringgreenareas,aswellasZabłocie.Theothercomplexeswereevaluatedasequal.AppropriateresolutionswereadoptedonOctober8,2008(LocalRevitalizationProgrammefortheOldTownandLocalRevitalizationProgrammefortheoldpartofNowaHuta)andonJanuary13,2010(LocalRevitalizationProgrammeforZabłocie).TheboundariesofthecurrentLocalRevitalizationProgrammesinKrakoware

showninFigure2.Table3demonstratestheircharacteristics.

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Fig. 2. Boundaries of the Local Revitalization Programmes in KrakowSource: own study based on the data provided by the Geodetic and Cartographic Documentation Centre in Krakow and the City Development Department of the City of Krakow.

Table 3. Local Revitalization Programmes in Krakow

Local Revitalization Programme Percentage of the area of Krakow

Number of projects included in the Local Revitalization Programmes

Old Town 2.03% 92Old part of Nowa Huta 1.04% 36Zabłocie 0.53% 20

Source: own study based on (Resolution 2008b), (Resolution 2008c) and (Resolution 2010).

Almost all of the projects whichwere included in local revitalization pro-grammeswereeitherofspatialorofecologicaltype.Interestingly,socialprojectsaccountedformerely12%ofalltheprojectsproposedforimplementation.Attheendof2014,aspartofamonitoringprocedure,alltheprojectsentered

intolocalrevitalizationprogrammeswereanalyzed(Report2014).ByDecember31,2014,29projectsincludedintheLocalRevitalizationProgrammefortheOldTown,eightintheProgrammefor“old”NowaHuta,andsixintheProgrammeforZabłociewere implemented.Theyconcernedvarious typesofconstructionprocesses.Noneofthemreferredtothesocialsphere.ThecurrentlybindingresolutionsforthemunicipalityofKrakowareasfol-

lows:


− UrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakowofOctober8,2008(Resolution2008a),

− Local Revitalization Programme for the Old Town of October 8, 2008(Resolution2008b),

− LocalRevitalizationProgrammefortheoldpartofNowaHutaofOctober8,2008(Resolution2008c),

− LocalRevitalizationProgrammeforZabłocieofJanuary13,2010(Resolution2010).These documents are constantly updated. Following the changes to the

UrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakowof2014(Resolution2014),2016(Resolution2016)and2017(Resolution2017),worksarebeingcarriedoutonupdatingalltheLocalRevitalizationProgrammes.Theirplannednewboundariesareshown inFigure3 (in thebackground, thereare thecontoursof theLocalRevitalizationProgrammeswhicharecurrentlyinforce).

Fig. 3. Updated boundaries of the Local Revitalization Programmes in KrakowSource: own study based on the data provided by the Geodetic and Cartographic Documentation Centre in Krakow and the City Development Department of the City of Krakow.

InKrakow, investors’preferenceshavenotchangedover theyears.Despitetheelaborationofvariousplanningdocuments,somepartsofthecityhavenotmanagedtobecomeattractive(Bieda,Parzych2013).LegislativeactionsoftheKrakowCityCouncilconcerningtheurbanrenewal,however,haveresultedinmoreandmoremanifestationsof therevitalizationprocessbeingnoticeableinthecity.Theadoptedresolutionshavebroughtaboutasignificantrenewalofthedegradedareas.Figure4showsanexampleofrevitalizationaspartoftheLocalRevitalizationProgrammeforZabłocie.

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2006 2014

Fig. 4. An example of revitalization – closed down mills and cosmetic plant converted into residential buildingsSource: (Resolution 2010) and (Google Street View 2014).

3. Data and Methods

The analyses presented in this articlewere carried out on the basis of dataprovidedbyGeodeticandCartographicDocumentationCentre inKrakowandtheCityDevelopmentDepartmentoftheCityofKrakow.ThedatanecessarytodeterminetherelationshipbetweenrevitalizationofurbanspaceinKrakowandthevalueofitsrealestateinclude:− RegistryofPropertyPricesandValues,whichincludesdataonalltypesofrealpropertiestradedbetweenJanuary2006andDecember2014,

− spatialdataoncadastralparcelswithin theadministrativeboundariesof thecityofKrakow,

− spatial data on revitalization areas specified in the Urban RevitalizationProgrammeforKrakow,

− spatialdataontheboundariesoftheLocalRevitalizationProgrammesinforceinKrakow.Itwasverifiedwhethertherewas(ornot)arelationshipatspecificpointsin

timebetweenunit transactionpricesandlocationofaproperty in theareapo-tentiallyorpracticallydevotedtorevitalization.Thus,revitalizationwastreatedasoneoftheattributesthatcoulddescribetherealestatemarketforstatisticalanalysis of volatilityof transactionprices.Due to the fact that such attributesareassumedtobeindependent(Parzych,Czaja2015),otherattributesthatmayappearrelevanttoapotentialbuyerhavebeenomittedinthepresentedanalyses.Theinfluenceofotherattributeshasalreadybeenstudied,andtheresultsofsuchstudiescanbefounde.g.in(Bieda,Brzozowski2007).


Thediscussedresearchstudiescoverundevelopedlandpropertiesintendedforresidentialdevelopment,subjecttopropertylaw.Thesepropertiesweretotheob-jectoffreemarkettransactions.Speciallegalentitieswereneverpartiesthereto.Intheanalyzedperiod(January1,2006–December31,2014),therewere4505transactionsinvolvingthistypeofrealestateinKrakow.ThedistributionoftherecordedunittransactionpricesintimeisshowninFigure5,whilethebasicde-scriptivestatisticsofthecollecteddatabasearecontainedinTable4.

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Fig. 5. Distribution of unit transaction prices for undeveloped land properties intended for residential development in Krakow in 2006–2014Source: own study.

Tab. 4. Basic descriptive statistics of the database of unit transaction prices for undeveloped land properties intended for residential development in Krakow in 2006–2014

Average Median Minimal Maximal Standard deviation

389.38 237.77 20.00 11556.60 582.64Coefficient of variation Skewness Kurtosis Percentile 10% Percentile 90%

1.49 6.96 81.65 79.04 771.60

Source: own study.

In itsoriginal form, the informationcollected iscompletelyuseless.This isprovenbye.g.thecoefficientofvariation,fromwhichitfollowsthattheanalyzedbaseiscompletelyinconsistent(Parzych,Czaja2015).However,duetothesmallPearson’scorrelationcoefficient(r=0.05)ofunit

transactionpricesandtime,whichsuggestsnoeffectoftimeontransactionpric-es,theauthordecidedtocreatealandvaluemapoftheanalyzedland,takingintoaccountalltherealproperties(Fig.6).

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100 PLN/m2

350 PLN/m2

600 PLN/m2

850 PLN/m2

1100 PLN/m2

Fig. 6. Land value map of undeveloped real properties intended for residential development in Krakow, 2006–2014Source: own study.

Themapwascreatedusingthespatialinterpolationmethod.Thisisasolutionwhichhasbeentestedinthestudiesoftherealestatemarketbye.g.(Kulczycki,Ligas2007),(Cichociński2011),(Montero,Larraz2011),(Walaciketal.2013),(Cellmeretal.2014),(Ogryzek,Kurowska2016)and(Polny,Wójciak2017).Allof the landvaluemapspresentedin thisarticlewerecreatedusingtheInverseDistanceWeightingmethod(IDW).Theauthordecidednottoinsertalineofdis-continuity,whichundoubtedlyistheVistulaRiver.ItisassociatedwiththefactthatsomeoftheareasdefinedasrevitalizationareasintheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakowandintheLocalRevitalizationProgrammesarelocatedonbothsidesoftheVistulaRiver.Theindividualpartsoftherevitalizationareaswhich look separatedby the riverareundoubtedlyconnected.Over theyears,manyroadandpedestriancrossingsovertheVistulaRiverhavebeencreated.Foreasier interpretation, theboundariesof the revitalizationareas from the

UrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakowwereplottedonthegeneratedras-ter.Onthepreparedlandvaluemap,itcanbenotedthatthehighesttransactionpricesinKrakowareobtainedforlandpropertieslocatedinthehistoriccentreandinitsimmediatevicinity.Since long-termanalysiswasapplied, theconductedstudywasadditionally

basedonthetimeseriesofaveragemonthlyunittransactionprices.Suchanap-proachcanbefoundinrealestateresearchstudiescontainedintheworkssuchas(Żelazowski2008),(Dittmann2013),(Trojanek2013)and(Bełej,Kulesza2015).ThetimeseriescreatedonthebasisofallthecollecteddataisshowninFigure7,anditsbasicdescriptivecharacteristicsinTable6.


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Fig. 7. Time series of average monthly unit transaction prices for undeveloped land properties intended for residential development in Krakow in 2006–2014Source: own study.

AccordingtothevaluesillustratedinthegraphinFig.7,thelowestaveragemonthlyunittransactionpricewasrecordedinJune2006(215PLN/m²),andthehighestinDecember2008(958PLN/m²).Thesametimeserieswasalsopresentedagainstthebackgroundoftheseries

ofaveragemonthlytransactionpricesobtainedforundevelopedlandpropertiesinKrakow,2006–2014,smoothedbymeansofmovingaveragesforfiveneigh-bouringperiods.Itwasnecessarytocarryoutthreeiterationsforsuchaseries.Adescriptionof themethod canbe found e.g. in theworksby (Box, Jenkins1983),(Hamilton1994)and(Brockwell,Davis1996).Based on the smoothed time series, the analyzedmarket can be defined as

characterized by a constant price level and cyclical fluctuations (Adamczyk,Bieda2015).Afterthesmoothing,themaximumoftheanalyzedseriesisinMay2008(586PLN/m²),andtheminimuminJuly2006(261PLN/m²).

Tab. 5. Basic descriptive statistics of the time series of average monthly unit transaction prices for undeveloped land properties intended for residential development in Krakow in 2006–2014

Average Median Minimal Maximal Standard deviation

403.26 369.39 215.25 957.94 147.07Coefficient of variation Skewness Kurtosis Percentile 10% Percentile 90%

0.36 1.45 2.55 248.24 595.17

Source: own study.

AGNIESZKABIEDA16

However,analysingthewholesetdoesnotseemreasonable.Theinterpretationoftheaboveresultsonlyprovesthatitisnecessarytodividethedataintosmallerpartsinorderto:1. Compare the landvaluemapof the entireKrakowat thebeginningof the

urbanrenewalprocesswiththeboundariesoftheareaswhichshouldberevi-talized,selectedintheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakow,todeter-minewhetherthereisarelationshipbetweenthevalueoflandpropertiesandtheirlocationintheareasrecognizedasbeinginarecessionarycondition.

2. Comparethetimeseriesofaveragemonthlyunittransactionpricesfortherealestatelocatedwithintherevitalizationareasandintheirimmediatevicinitybetweentheindividualareas,andwiththetimeseriesoftheaveragemonthlytransactionpricesfortherealpropertieslocatedthroughoutthecity,inordertoverifywhetherdefiningtheareaasbeingintherecessionarycondition,andthenthepossibleimplementationofarecoveryplanintheformoftheLocalRevitalizationProgramme,hascausedpricefluctuations in local realestatemarkets.

4. Empirical results

Inordertoproperlydividetheanalyzeddatasetintosmallerones,andtode-terminethedatesoftheeventsthatcouldhavehadaneffectontransactionprices,atimelinewaspresentedwhichdepictsthecourseofcreatingthelegalbasisfortheurbanrenewalinKrakow(Fig.8).

Resolu�on onthe UrbanRevitaliza�onProgrammefor Kraków

Dra� of theUrbanRevitaliza�onProgrammefor Kraków

Resolu�on on theLocal Revitaliza�onProgrammefor Zabłocie

Selec�on of the areasfor revitaliza�on

Resolu�ons on the Urban Revitaliza�on Programme for Kraków aswell as the Local Revitaliza�on Programme for the Old Town and theLocal Revitaliza�on Programme for the od part of Nowa Huta

10/2005 08/2007

02/2006

01/2010

10/2008

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Fig. 8. Timeline of creating the legal basis for urban renewal in KrakowSource: own study.

Onthebasisoftheabovetimeline,itwasfoundthat,atthebeginningoftheprocessofurbanrenewal,thelandvaluemapofthewholeKrakowshouldhavebeen prepared according to the data from2006.The public consultations car-riedoutlaterinordertocreateaprojectoftheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakowcouldhavesignificantlyinfluencedrealestatetransactionpricesbypointingoutaqualitywhichwouldpositivelyaffecttheirvalue–possiblefuturerevitalizationofthearea.


Thetimelinealsohelpedtodeterminethedatesaroundwhichaveragemonthlyunittransactionpricesfortherealpropertieslocatedwithintherevitalizationar-easandintheirimmediatevicinityshouldbecompared.Inordertoseeifurbanrenewalaffectsthevalueofrealestate,thepointsfromtheabovetimelinewillbe confrontedwith the dates atwhich the time series reach theirminima andmaxima.

4.1. Theinfluenceofpropertyvaluesondeterminingrevitalizationareas

Inordertodeterminethedependencebetweentransactionpricesobtainedforlandpropertiesandthelocationofthepropertiesintheareasmeanttoberevital-ized,asampleof820wasanalyzed.TheirdistributionisshowninFig.9.

Fig. 9. Distribution of undeveloped land properties intended for residential development which were traded in 2006Source: own study.

Itisevidentthatmostoftherealpropertiessoldin2006arelocatedoutsideoftheareaswhichwereconsideredtobedegradedandrequiringrenewalintheUrbanRevitalizationProgramme.The reasons behind the lack of transactionsrecordedindegradedareasvarydependingonthearea.Inthecitycentre(areasI,IIandIV)demandforlandpropertiessurpassestheirsupply.Inotherareas,thesituation is reversed.Ownersofproperties located indegradedareasput themonsalereadily,butunfortunatelynotmanypeopleareinterestedinbuyingthem.Therefore,inordertodeterminetherelationshipbetweenthetransactionpricesand the location ina revitalizationarea,price interpolationwas repeatedoncemoreusingtheInverseDistanceWeightingmethod(Fig.10).

AGNIESZKABIEDA18

A map was prepared based on transaction prices without time correction.Pearson’scorrelationcoefficientbetweentheunittransactionpricesandthetrans-actiondatein2006was0.04.

70 PLN/m2

225 PLN/m2

380 PLN/m2

535 PLN/m2

690 PLN/m2

Fig. 10. Land value map of undeveloped land properties intended for residential development in 2006Source: own study.

Basedonthelandvaluemapwithboundariesofrevitalizationareas,itcanbenotedthat,contrarytoexpectations, theyarenotalwayslocatedinthoseareasofthecitywhererealestateisinexpensive.Thehighestunittransactionpricescanbe noted in the vicinity of the communications centre1and in fashionablelocations,mainlyontherepresentativestreetsofKrakow.TheseareasfrequentlyneighbourthoselateridentifiedasbeinginarecessionaryconditionintheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakowanddenotedasI,IIandIV.Otherrevitalizationareas(III,V,VI,VIIandVIII)arelocatedoutsidethecity

centre.Thetransactionpricesrecordedintheirinfluencezonesdonotdifferfromthoserecordedoutsidetherevitalizationareas.

4.2. Theinfluenceofurbanrenewalonthevalueofrealestate

Inordertoverifywhetherpricechangesonthelocalmarketofundevelopedlandpropertiesintendedforresidentialdevelopmentweretheresultofdefininganareaasbeinginrecessionarycondition,andthenpossiblyimplementingarecov-eryplanintheformoftheLocalRevitalizationProgramme,theauthordecidedtobuildatimeseriesofaveragemonthlyunittransactionpricesfortheproperties

1 ThecommunicationscentreisabiginvestmentaimedatimprovingcommunicationinthecentreofKrakow.Itencompassesanundergroundhallofarailwaystation,abusstation,afasttramtunnel,aroadtunnelandtwonewstreets.


locatedwithintherevitalizationareas.However,sinceintheyears2006–2014,landpropertytransactionsinthemajorityoftherevitalizedareaswerereportedtobeextremelyrare(cf.Fig.11),informationonpropertysalesintheimmediatevicinityoftheseareaswasaddedtothetransactionsintherevitalizationareas.

Fig. 11. Distribution of undeveloped land properties intended for residential development which were traded between 2006 and 2014Source: own study.

Tab. 6. Basic descriptive statistics of the time series of average quarterly unit transaction prices for undeveloped land properties intended for housing development in individual revitalization areas in 2006–2014

Area Average Median Minimal Maximal Standard deviation

Coefficient of variation Skewness Kurtosis

I 2223.97 1719.78 210.08 10682.49 2179.25 0.98 2.37 7.06II 1151.16 840.60 292.10 3329.15 828.12 0.72 1.17 0.88III 430.19 354.27 142.83 1158.73 204.95 0.48 1.46 3.21IV 903.72 806.03 46.82 2915.45 575.88 0.64 1.46 3.66V 328.94 281.57 61.46 1127.71 210.34 0.64 1.89 5.06VI 313.33 237.20 97.18 1120.14 195.78 0.62 2.40 7.97VII 359.56 362.70 104.82 946.16 173.11 0.48 1.01 3.05VIII 113.44 108.47 35.99 260.23 55.58 0.49 1.16 1.17Kra-kow

403.26 393.64 245.23 581.67 98.27 0.24 0.17 –1.03

Source: own study.

Eachofthetimeserieswasbuiltwithseveralhundredtransactionsrecordedintheanalyzedperiod.Duetodatagaps,theauthordecidedtodetermineaveragequarterlyunitprices.Alltheseriesweresmoothedusingmovingaverages(for

AGNIESZKABIEDA20

threeneighbouringperiods,inthreeiterations).ThecharacteristicsoftheseriesarecontainedinTable6.ThetimeseriesareshowninFig.12and13.

Area I Area II Area III Area IV Area V Area VI Area VII Area VIII Krakow

IV/2

006

II/20

07

IV/2

007

II/20

08

IV/2

008

II/20

09

IV/2

009

II/20

10

IV/2

010

II/20

11

IV/2

011

II/20

12

IV/2

012

II/20

13

IV/2

013

quarter

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

unit

pric

e [P

LN/m

2 ]

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Fig. 12. Smoothed time series of average monthly transaction prices for undeveloped land properties in the areas selected for revitalization in the Urban Revitalization Programme for Krakow in the years 2006–2014Source: own study.


Thetimeseriesofaveragequarterlyunitpricesinallrevitalizationareas,aswellas theseriesofaveragemonthlypricesfor thewholeofKrakow,aresta-bleandarecharacterizedbycyclicalorseasonalfluctuations.TheirextremesaresummarizedinTable7.

Tab. 7. Extremes of the time series of average quarterly unit transaction prices for undeveloped land properties intended for residential development in individual revitalization areas in the years 2006–2014

AreaMaximal Minimal

quarter unit price [PLN/m2] quarter unit price

[PLN/m2]I III/2008 4 356 IV/2012 1 035II IV/2008 2 446 II/2010 547III IV/2010 702 IV/2006 260IV I/2011 1 984 IV/2012 496V III/2007 541 III/2010 236VI I/2013 513 I/2013 212VII III/2013 491 IV/2006 253VIII IV/2008 177 IV/2006 69Krakow II/2008 548 IV/2006 292

Source: own study.

InalltheareasselectedfortheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakow,transactionpricesbegantoincreaseaftertheurbanrenewalhadstarted.Thepric-esinareaVreachedtheirmaximafirst,withtheaveragetransactionpriceofPLN541/m²inthethirdquarterof2007.Thebuyers’euphoria,however,droppedquiterapidlyandwhentheLocalRevitalizationPlanfortheoldpartofNowaHutawasadopted,transactionpricesplummetedtocircaPLN300/m²,andthencontinuedtodecreaseuntilthethirdquarterof2010.Whentheyreachedtheminimum,thepricesinareaVstartedtogoupagain.Thelocalmaximumofthesecondcyclewas456PLN/m².InareasIandII,themaximaofthetimeseriesoccurredinthesecondhalfof

2008(forareaI–4356PLN/m²,forareaII–2446PLN/m²),whichcoincidedwiththeadoptionoftheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakow.Attheturnof2009and2010,theminimacouldbeobservedinbothcases(forareaI–thelo-calminimaamountingto1158PLN/m²,forareaII–theglobalminimaamount-ingto547PLN/m²).Otherlocalextremeswerethemaximainthethirdquarterof2011(forareaI–2916PLN/m²,forareaII–1596PLN/m²).ThemaximumvalueforthetimeseriesofareaIV(1984PLN/m²)wasabouthalfayearaheadofthem.Earlier,whenthepriceseriesforareasIandIIreachedtheirmaxima,theseriesforareaIVreachedthevalueofPLN1007/m²(inthesecondquarterof2008).

AGNIESZKABIEDA22

ThetimeseriesdemonstratedinFig.13arethesameasinFig.12.However,theywereselectedandscaledtomakeiteasiertoanalyzethevaluesfortheareaswithloweraveragetransactionprices.

Area III Area V Area VI Area VII Area VIII Krakow

IV/2

006

II/20

07

IV/2

007

II/20

08

IV/2

008

II/20

09

IV/2

009

II/20

10

IV/2

010

II/20

11

IV/2

011

II/20

12

IV/2

012

II/20

13

IV/2

013

quarter

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

unit

pric

e [P

LN/m

2 ]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Fig. 13. Smoothed time series of average monthly unit transaction prices for undeveloped land properties in specific areas selected for revitalization in the Urban Revitalization Programme for Krakow in 2006–2014Source: own study.

TheseriesofquarterlyaveragetransactionpricesinareasIII,V,VI,VIIandVIIIaresignificantlylowerthaninareasI,IIandIV.ThisisassociatedwiththelocationofthelatterintheverycentreofKrakow.InareaVI,theinfluenceofurbanrenewalontransactionpricesisnegligible.

Theseriesofaveragequarterlytransactionpricesforthisareadoesnotexhibitanyexplicitextremeswhichcouldbelinkedtothedatesimportantforrevitaliza-tioninKrakow.Theprices inareaVII increasedsignificantlyafter theUrbanRevitalization

ProgrammeforKrakowhadbeenintroduced,i.e.attheturnof2007and2008,soaringtoPLN486/m².InareaVIII,itoccurredonlyayearlater,i.e.aftertheadoptionoftheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakow(177PLN/m²).The extreme of the transaction price series in area IIIwas observed in the

fourthquarterof2010(702PLN/m²).Thisisacompletelyunexpectedvalueand


itismostlikelyrelatedtotheinclusionofrealpropertiesfromtheinfluencezoneofareaIII,alsoaffectedbyareasIandII,intothecalculations.For comparison, average unit prices for land properties in provincial cities

remainedataconstantlevelfromtheendof2007tothebeginningof2010(cf.Report2016).Well-visiblemaximaofthetimeseriesofaveragequarterlyunitpricesinallrevitalizationareassuggestthatlegislativeactionsresultedinanin-creaseofthepriceswhichhadalreadybeenhigh.TheirlevelinKrakowroseevenhigherthaninotherprovincialcities,however,thelackofactionsleadingtotherealizationoftheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammebroughtKrakowpricesdowntothelevelofthewholecountry.Finally,toseehowthemarketreactedtothecreationoftheLocalRevitalization

Programmes,alandvaluemapwaspreparedbasedonthedatafromtheyears2010–2014 (Fig. 14). The raster, as before, was generated using the InverseDistanceWeightingmethod.2278transactionpriceslocatedthroughoutKrakowwereusedforthecalculations.Duetothelackofanyrelationshipbetweenthetransactiondateandtheunittransactionprice,thepriceswerenotadjustedforthetimeelapsed.

115 PLN/m2

355 PLN/m2

595 PLN/m2

835 PLN/m2

1075 PLN/m2

Fig. 14. Land value map of the undeveloped land properties intended for residential development in 2010–2014Source: own study.

TheabovelandvaluemapprovesthaturbanrenewalaffectedthedistributionoftransactionpricesinKrakow.AsaresultoftherevitalizationofZabłocie,thetransactionpricesinthisareahaveincreasedsignificantly(cf.Fig.10and14).

AGNIESZKABIEDA24

5. Discussion and conclusions

BasedontheanalysescarriedoutinKrakowintheyears2006–2014,itmaybeconcludedthatthevalueofundevelopedlandintendedforresidentialdevelop-mentisassociatedwithurbanrenewal.Thisisduetothefactthatrevitalizationhasapositiveeffectonqualitiessuchas“standard”,“environment”and“fash-ion”,whicharetypicallyusedbypropertyappraiserstodescriberealpropertiesintheirvaluationprocess(cf.Parzych,Czaja2015).Asithasalreadybeennotedearlier,inalltheareasidentifiedasbeinginare-

cessionaryconditionandintendedforrevitalization,transactionpricesbegantoincreaseassoonas theprocedurefor theUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakowcommenced.The real estatemarketbegan todiscount futuregains inspace.The time series of the quarterly unit transaction prices for these areas,however,reachedtheirmaximaatdifferenttimes.The maxima were reached first in area V (later: the Local Revitalization

ProgrammefortheoldpartofNowaHuta),justafterthecreationoftheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakow,i.e.inthethirdquarterof2007.InareasI (later: the LocalRevitalization Programme for theOldTown) and II (later:the Local Revitalization Programme for Zabłocie), for which adoption LocalRevitalizationProgrammeshadbeendecided,anincrease in transactionpriceswasnotedonlyaftertheUrbanRevitalizationProgrammeforKrakowwasintro-duced,i.e.inthesecondhalfof2008.Additionally,apriceincreaseinareaIIalsooccurred after theupdateof theLocalRevitalizationProgramme forZabłociein January 2010. In the second quarter of 2010, the prices in this area begantoriseagain.UrbanrenewalofKrakowresultedinincreasedtransactionpricesinthecity

centre.Asaresultoftheregenerationofpost-industrialareas,Zabłociebecameafashionable,andthusexpensive,placetolive(Biedaetal.2017).Therefore,theintroductionoftheLocalRevitalizationProgrammeforZabłocieresultedinashiftofthecentreofgravityoftransactionpricesfromthevicinityofthecom-municationcentretothesouth,towardstheKazimierzandPodgórzedistricts.ItisalsonoticeablethatfailuretorevitalizeareaIV(Krowodrza)hadnovis-

ible effecton transactionprices.Despite the fact that theLocalRevitalizationProgrammehadnot been implemented for this particular district, in the years2010–2014thepricestherewereequaltothepricesintheareascoveredbytheLocalRevitalizationProgrammefortheOldTownandtheLocalRevitalizationProgrammeforZabłocie.Spatialvariations,relatedmainlytoadecreaseinrail-wayareas,whichinfluencedtheperceptionofthemarketpotential,contributedtothisphenomenon.However, Krakow’s urban renewal did not stimulate the landmarket. The

numberoftransactionsintheareasidentifiedasrevitalizationareasremainedlowovertheyearswhencomparedtotherestofthecity(cf.Fig.9and11).Insomeareas(II,VI,VIIandVIII)therewerehardlyanylandpropertytransactions.


AlthoughintheareaslocatedintheverycentreofKrakow(areasI,IIandIV)unittransactionpriceswereveryhigh,theydidnotsignificantlyaffectaveragecityprices.Itshouldberememberedthattheperformedanalysesserveexclusivelytode-

scribethephenomenonofurbanrenewal.Therealestatedatabasesbasedonthetransactionsconductedoveraperiodofnineyearscannotbeusedforvaluationingeneral.

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Kwartalnik 'Studia Regionalne i Lokalne' - Urban renewal and ...studreg.uw.edu.pl/dane/web_sril_files/592/2017_3_bieda.pdfNr 3(69)/2017 ISSN 1509–4995 doi: 10.7366/1509499536901

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