17 March 2015 Morning Brief 17 March 2015 Morning Brief Daily Market Performance SET (16/03/2015): Market Turnover: 1,515.57 (-1.69%) Bt45,358m Source: SET, KS Today’s highlights Market Wrap-up ► The SET Index yesterday slumped 25.98 points (-1.69%) to 1,515.57 on low turnover of Bt45,358mn after the crude oil price hit a one-month low amid an absence of positive catalysts. Energy, ICT and Bank stocks led the market down. Foreign investors were net buyers of Bt712mn of stocks (Inst - Bt1,969mn, Prop -Bt556mn, Ret +Bt1,814mn). Key event today: the FOMC meeting begins. Sector & Equities Recommendation ► BA (Outperform) (page 2) We initiate coverage of Bangkok Airways (BA) with an Outperform rating and a TP of Bt24. We like BA as it is an airline company with comparatively less volatile earnings than its peers. This is due to the steady cashflow provided by its non-airline businesses and dividend income/share of profit from BDMS and SPF. Given the positive outlook for a low jet fuel price this year and the 20% price correction in BA's share price since its IPO in Nov 2014 (vs. SET -2%), we see an opportunity to exploit the current positive valuation gap. Our TP of Bt24 is based on a sum-of-parts valuation, which implies upside of 19%. ► SPALI (Under review) (page 3) However, in our view, given: 1) that SPALI is trading at a 2015E PER of just 6.9x, which is comparatively low compared with its peers’ 9.9x (or about 8.2x excluding LH); 2) the recent share price correction of about 15% in the past week; and 3) that this extra money will support new investments and/or allow SPALI to possibly acquire attractive land plots at reasonable prices, we see this decision providing additional value to SPALI in the long term. The short-term negative impact, in our view, should provide a nice entry level for long-term investors looking to ride the solid growth potential of this company. In the conservative case, at the latest closing price, investors should receive a nice dividend yield of 5.0% assuming SPALI pays a 2015 dividend at the same amount as in 2014 of Bt1.0 per share. Note that SPALI is maintaining its 2015 pre-sales growth target at 18.6%, to Bt23bn, and revenue growth target at 17.8%, to Bt22bn. Current secured 2015 revenue accounts for 80% of this year’s target. Sector PER (x) Yr to Dec 12A 13A 14E 15E Agribusiness & Food 11.24 25.10 16.33 13.77 Auto 15.02 8.95 10.88 11.75 Banking 14.89 11.97 11.97 11.50 Commerce 23.79 25.69 31.01 27.73 Commercial 14.79 29.96 25.80 23.40 Construction Materials 25.93 17.00 18.24 15.59 Contractor 45.69 11.70 27.57 27.61 Electronics 19.88 15.81 15.30 14.30 Energy 8.44 9.47 20.59 11.57 Health Care 37.44 46.46 40.96 35.26 Home & Office Products 1.25 1.39 12.48 10.93 ICT 18.77 21.88 19.26 19.41 Industrial Estate 21.65 13.57 16.11 13.21 Insurance 25.16 18.98 123.26 18.31 Media 18.37 15.46 17.76 16.81 Petrochemical 9.69 10.29 25.37 14.54 Property Fund 30.11 49.54 35.94 34.39 Residential 13.03 12.28 10.59 10.02 Shipping -5.68 -6.75 42.84 25.24 Tourism 35.27 28.20 33.81 23.89 Transportation 7.39 41.95 40.42 24.74 Utilities 33.72 33.54 25.86 18.91 Source: Bloomberg, KS Inside Page Fund Flows i Bond Trading i Top Ten Short Sale ii Thai NVDR Trading Data by Stock ii Daily Driver Stats (Market Summary) iii Daily Driver Stats (Commodity) iv Director Trade v Insider Trading vi Foreign Ownership - top ten gainers and losers vi Economic Calendar vii Company's Calendar ix Kasikorn Securities PCL Research Department Contact: 02-696-0031 SET Index 1,515.57 Investor Type SET TFEX Top Buy Net Top Sell Net DJIA 228.11pt/1.29% Oil - Nymex (USD) 43.88/bbl/-0.96USD Change -25.98pt/-1.69% (Btm) DTAC 147 KBANK -456 S&P 27.79pt/1.35% Gold - London (USD) 1,157.07/Oz/-0.27USD Turnover (Btm) 45,357.76 Foreign 712 5,301 LH 143 BBL -330 NASDAX 57.75pt/1.19% DXYO 99.6/-0.72% PER (x) 20.98 Institution -1,969 3,867 INTUCH 114 SCB -177 CAC 50.7pt/1.01% Bt/USD 32.95/0.05% PBV (x) 2.12 Retail 1,814 737 HANA 83 SCC -140 FTSE 63.5pt/0.94% USD/Euro 1.05/-0.47% Div Yield (%) 2.90 Proprietary -556 - GL 71 PTT -122 DAX 266.11pt/2.24% 10Y US treasury yld 2.07/-2% (Contracts) Thai Stock Market Trading by Investor Type NVDR Net Buy/Sell International Markets Commodity Market
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17 March 2015 Morning Brief
17 March 2015 Morning Brief
Daily Market Performance SET (16/03/2015): Market Turnover:
1,515.57 (-1.69%) Bt45,358m
Source: SET, KS
Today’s highlights Market Wrap-up ► The SET Index yesterday slumped 25.98 points (-1.69%) to 1,515.57 on low
turnover of Bt45,358mn after the crude oil price hit a one-month low amid an absence of positive catalysts. Energy, ICT and Bank stocks led the market down. Foreign investors were net buyers of Bt712mn of stocks (Inst -Bt1,969mn, Prop -Bt556mn, Ret +Bt1,814mn). Key event today: the FOMC meeting begins.
Sector & Equities Recommendation ► BA (Outperform) (page 2) We initiate coverage of Bangkok Airways (BA)
with an Outperform rating and a TP of Bt24. We like BA as it is an airline company with comparatively less volatile earnings than its peers. This is due to the steady cashflow provided by its non-airline businesses and dividend income/share of profit from BDMS and SPF. Given the positive outlook for a low jet fuel price this year and the 20% price correction in BA's share price since its IPO in Nov 2014 (vs. SET -2%), we see an opportunity to exploit the current positive valuation gap. Our TP of Bt24 is based on a sum-of-parts valuation, which implies upside of 19%.
► SPALI (Under review) (page 3) However, in our view, given: 1) that SPALI is trading at a 2015E PER of just 6.9x, which is comparatively low compared with its peers’ 9.9x (or about 8.2x excluding LH); 2) the recent share price correction of about 15% in the past week; and 3) that this extra money will support new investments and/or allow SPALI to possibly acquire attractive land plots at reasonable prices, we see this decision providing additional value to SPALI in the long term. The short-term negative impact, in our view, should provide a nice entry level for long-term investors looking to ride the solid growth potential of this company. In the conservative case, at the latest closing price, investors should receive a nice dividend yield of 5.0% assuming SPALI pays a 2015 dividend at the same amount as in 2014 of Bt1.0 per share. Note that SPALI is maintaining its 2015 pre-sales growth target at 18.6%, to Bt23bn, and revenue growth target at 17.8%, to Bt22bn. Current secured 2015 revenue accounts for 80% of this year’s target.
SET Index 1,515.57 Investor Type SET TFEX Top Buy Net Top Sell Net DJIA 228.11pt/1.29% Oil - Nymex (USD) 43.88/bbl/-0.96USD Change -25.98pt/-1.69% (Btm) DTAC 147 KBANK -456 S&P 27.79pt/1.35% Gold - London (USD) 1,157.07/Oz/-0.27USD Turnover (Btm) 45,357.76 Foreign 712 5,301 LH 143 BBL -330 NASDAX 57.75pt/1.19% DXYO 99.6/-0.72%
PER (x) 20.98 Institution -1,969 3,867 INTUCH 114 SCB -177 CAC 50.7pt/1.01% Bt/USD 32.95/0.05% PBV (x) 2.12 Retail 1,814 737 HANA 83 SCC -140 FTSE 63.5pt/0.94% USD/Euro 1.05/-0.47% Div Yield (%) 2.90 Proprietary -556 - GL 71 PTT -122 DAX 266.11pt/2.24% 10Y US treasury yld 2.07/-2%
(Contracts)
Thai Stock Market Trading by Investor Type NVDR Net Buy/Sell International Markets Commodity Market
Morning Brief
17 March 2015 2 Morning Brief
Bangkok Airways PCL - More than just an airline company (BA TB, Bt20.00, Outperform, Fair price Bt24.00) Jitima Ratanatam
([email protected]) We initiate coverage of Bangkok Airways (BA) with an Outperform rating and a TP of Bt24. We like BA as it is an airline company with comparatively less volatile earnings than its peers. This is due to the steady cashflow provided by its non-airline businesses and dividend income/share of profit from BDMS and SPF. Given the positive outlook for a low jet fuel price this year and the 20% price correction in BA's share price since its IPO in Nov 2014 (vs. SET -2%), we see an opportunity to exploit the current positive valuation gap. Our TP of Bt24 is based on a sum-of-parts valuation, which implies upside of 19%.
Investment highlight ► 2015 outlook. We expect BA to report a 2015 net profit of Bt1.58bn, up from Bt351m in 2014.
The key growth drivers will be a higher pax number, fleet expansion, flight capacity expansion at Samui Airport and the lower jet fuel price. Competition in the airline market is intense but we expect BA’s differentiation via its focus on Samui routes (high margin as BA is the airport operator) and increasing code sharing with many airlines will enable the company to survive in the long run. BA should also benefit from Thai Airways’ restructuring plan as we expect some passengers to switch to BA as THAI exits routes.
► Fleet expansion. BA is targeting to increase its fleet from 27 aircraft in 2014 to 30 aircraft in 2015. We expect revenue to increase 30% YoY, driven by improvements in ASK capacity (+13% YoY), Pax number (+26% YoY to 6m) and avg. ticket price (+3% YoY to Bt3,880). The low base for tourist numbers due to the Thai political uncertainty last year should support strong growth in 2015.
► Samui expansion. The company has already been granted permission from the Thai DCA in Nov 2014 to increase the flight capacity at Samui Airport from 36 to 50 flights per day. BA will be the primary beneficiary of this change as it accounts for roughly 90% of total daily flights to Samui Airport.
► Fuel hedging. Currently about 75% of BA’s fuel is hedged at roughly US$106/bbl. Blended with the unhedged portion, we expect BA’s effective jet fuel cost at US$102/bbl (-9% YoY) in 2015. Combined with BA’s fixed pricing for advanced ticket bookings with code share partners (20-25% of total revenue), we expect EBITDAR margin to return to normal at 20% in 2015 from 15% in 2014. Every US$1 change in the jet fuel price will impact core profit by 3%.
► Non-airline businesses and dividend income curb earnings volatility. Non-airline business accounts for 20% of BA's total revenues and contributes stable, high-margin earnings. Combined with the steady dividend income/share of profit from BDMS and SPF (~Bt500m/ year), this gives BA an advantage over other airlines as its earnings should be less volatile than those of its peers.
Valuation
► Our TP of Bt24 is based on a sum-of-parts valuation, made up of: 1) its core operation (Bt10); and 2) investments in BDMS (Bt12.5) and SPF (Bt1.8). Excluding BDMS and SPF's valuation, BA’s core operation is trading at 0.6x PBV and 4x EBITDAR in 2015E, lower than the average for regional airlines at 1.5x PBV and 5.5x EVEBITDAR. The share price correction 20% since IPO in Nov 2014, we attractive valuation upside of 19%. We initiate coverage of BA with an Outperform rating.
Morning Brief
17 March 2015 3 Morning Brief
Supalai PCL - Dividend policy change to support long-term growth (SPALI TB, Bt20.10, Under review) Sorapong Jakteerungkul
► SPALI informed the SET yesterday afternoon that it would change its dividend policy from approximately 45% of net income after tax to not less than 35% of net income after tax on its separate financial statements.
► The main purpose of this adjustment, disclosed during an opportunity day event conducted at the SET, is to boost the company’s financial flexibility in the long term, as the new policy will give it a much wider payout ratio range, from 35% to 100%. This will allow SPALI to easily manage its dividend per share to keep it at least at the same amount as it paid in the previous year.
Impact
► Despite this clarification, we see a negative impact on its share price in the short term given the market may take a conservative view of this change by assuming the lowest rate for future dividend payments, while the current Bloomberg consensus dividend payout ratio for SPALI is at 40.0%.
► Assuming a new rate of 35%, Bloomberg's consensus 2015-17 dividend per share (DPS) for SPALI will fall by Bt0.14-0.19 from the current estimate of Bt1.16-1.30. This implies a decline in DPS of 12-15%. In this case, we may see the share price contract at the same rate if a DDM valuation model is applied. Note that the eight largest residential developers have an average dividend payout ratio in a range of 44-49% over the next three years (or about 39-41% excluding LH).
Recommendation
► However, in our view, given: 1) that SPALI is trading at a 2015E PER of just 6.9x, which is comparatively low compared with its peers’ 9.9x (or about 8.2x excluding LH); 2) the recent share price correction of about 15% in the past week; and 3) that this extra money will support new investments and/or allow SPALI to possibly acquire attractive land plots at reasonable prices, we see this decision providing additional value to SPALI in the long term.
► The short-term negative impact, in our view, should provide a nice entry level for long-term investors looking to ride the solid growth potential of this company. In the conservative case, at the latest closing price, investors should receive a nice dividend yield of 5.0% assuming SPALI pays a 2015 dividend at the same amount as in 2014 of Bt1.0 per share. Note that SPALI is maintaining its 2015 pre-sales growth target at 18.6%, to Bt23bn, and revenue growth target at 17.8%, to Bt22bn. Current secured 2015 revenue accounts for 80% of this year’s target.
Morning Brief
17 March 2015 4 Morning Brief
Daily News Economic & Industry News
► PM blasts squabbling over charter. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has warned that the charter-drafting process will be scrapped if arguments among the stakeholders continue. (Bangkok Post)
► ERC asks for power plant delays. The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) is in talks with several private power producers that received licenses to develop plants, urging them to postpone commercial operations until 2022. (Bangkok Post)
► Sommai vows to push new tax . Finance Minister Sommai Phasee has issued a stern warning that Thailand will become mired in fiscal woe if tax reform, particularly the land and buildings tax, fails to materialise. (Bangkok Post)
► We'll find a solution for SEZs, Prayut says. PM General Prayut Chan-o-cha promised yesterday that the government would seek appropriate solutions in a bid to ease investor concerns over the enforcement of martial law in special economic zones (SEZs). (Nation)
► Baht weaker but stable after rate cut. The Bank of Thailand's 25-basis-point cut in the policy interest rate last week has weakened the value of the baht by 0.5 per cent and taken the government bond yield curve to its lowest point in six years. (Nation)
► New emissions tax won't hurt car sales much: minister. Industry Minister Chakramon Phasukavanich has said the restructuring of the automobile excise tax to include an emissions levy that will become effective from January 1 next year should not have a significant impact on people's decisions to buy a new car. (Nation)
► Advertising spending rises 21.4% in Jan-Feb. Ad expenditures in the first two months showed signs of a recovery, surging 21.4 per cent to Bt19.94 billion from Bt16.42 billion a year earlier, according to Nielsen (Thailand). (Nation)
Daily Stats
17 March 2015 i Morning Brief
Fund Flows
Foreign net Buy/Sell in regional markets (USDmn)
12-Mar-15 13-Mar-15 16-Mar-15 5 Days 30 Days YTD 2014
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