Kristin's MARKET UPDATE - WordPress.com · SANTA CRUZ, CA 95060 Neighborhood Detail Least Expensive Listing Average List Price Average Age of Listing 51 $ 4,900,000 $ 559,000 $ 1,444,700
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MARKET UPDATEKristin's
· Current Real Estate Market Conditions for Single Family Homes· Trends in Pricing· Current Levels of Supply and Demand· Value Metrics
· Report for the week ofOctober 30, 2017
· Presented by Kristin EvansWe Are Datawww.altosresearch.com415.932.8152
The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuringthe current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to thebuyer.
Supply and Demand
Characteristics per Quartile
29 33252
792.0 52
3.0
4
60
3.0 24
50
3
6
0.25 - 0.50acre
58
$ 1,100,000
5
0
24
3.5
4,501 -6,500 sqft
92.5
1440 4,501 -6,500 sqft
24
$ 812,000
3.5
128
0.25 - 0.50acre$ 1,447,450
4.0$ 2,343,500
40
9
2405
Inventory has been decreasing latelybut the Market Action Index is fallingalso. With days-on-market climbing,these are relatively negativeimplications for the market.
Monday October 30, 2017
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
24
1930
2.0
The median list price in SANTA CRUZ,CA this week is $1,199,000. The 96properties have been on the marketfor an average of 79 days.
Most expensive 25% of properties
Upper-middle 25% of properties
Lower-middle 25% of properties
Least expensive 25% of properties
Quartile Median Price Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.
No change
Strong upward trend Strong downward trend
Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+
== ≠≠
≠=
SANTA CRUZ, CACity Overview
Least Expensive Listing
Average List Price
Average Age of Listing
96
$ 6,950,000
$ 499,000
$ 1,604,389
47
Trend Key:
The market has been at a stasispoint in terms of sales to inventory.However, prices seem to continue tofall a bit. Technically supply levelsindicate this is a Seller's market so itis likely that the downward pricingpressure will be light or variable.
Page 2 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
City OverviewSANTA CRUZ, CA
Monday October 30, 2017
Median PriceThe market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability ofthis trend.
90-day Average7-day Average
Quartile PricesPrice weakness is visible almost across the board. Prices in Quartile 4 have been mixed recently, while the rest of the market istrending downward. Look to a strong, persistent up shift in the Market Action Index as a leading indicator of the trough in themarket.
First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom
Page 3 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
City OverviewSANTA CRUZ, CA
Monday October 30, 2017
Price per Square FootThe market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both beenreasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves fromthese levels.
90-day Average7-day Average
Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.
90-day Average7-day Average
Page 4 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
City OverviewSANTA CRUZ, CA
Monday October 30, 2017
Market Action IndexThe SANTA CRUZ market is currently quite strongly in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day Market ActionIndex stands at 46.88; indicating very little supply relative to the demand.
Buyers/Sellers Cutoff90-day Average
Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly, all segments in the market are showing high levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before thewhole market changes. Often one end of the market (e.g. the high-end) will weaken before the rest of the market and signal aslowdown for the whole group.
First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom
Buyers/Sellers Cutoff
Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterizedby analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’sAdvantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.
Page 5 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
City OverviewSANTA CRUZ, CA
Monday October 30, 2017
Days on MarketThe properties have been on the market for an average of 79 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in thepast 49 or so days.
90-day Average7-day Average
Days on Market per QuartileIt is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom
Page 6 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Median List Price
Median Lot Size
48.5
Percent Relisted (reset DOM)
2305
2.5
4 %
Median Number of Bathrooms
80
Inventory of Properties Listed
$ 561
Percent Flip (price increased)
0.25 - 0.50 acre
Median House Size (sq ft)
$ 1,199,995
33 %
3.0
Market Action Index
Median Number of Bedrooms
Asking Price Per Square Foot
65 %
Percent of Properties with Price Decrease
Strong Seller's
≠
±+
≠
=
≠
Altos Research Value Statistics
Most Expensive Listing
Average Days on Market (DoM)
Bottom/Fourth
Lower/Third
Upper/Second
Top/First
This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend
The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuringthe current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to thebuyer.
Supply and Demand
Characteristics per Quartile
29 33873
832.0 51
3.0
3
54
3.0 13
58
2
3
0.50 - 1.0acre
65
$ 1,149,500
3
0
13
3.5
4,501 -6,500 sqft
43.0
1422 6,501 -8,000 sqft
13
$ 799,000
4.0
129
0.25 - 0.50acre$ 1,399,000
4.0$ 2,297,000
40
5
2811
Inventory has been lightening latelyand the Market Action Index has beentrending up. Though days-on-marketis increasing, these are mildly positiveindications for the market.
Monday October 30, 2017
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
12
2129
2.0
The median list price in SANTA CRUZ,CA 95060 this week is $1,199,995. The51 properties have been on themarket for an average of 80 days.
Most expensive 25% of properties
Upper-middle 25% of properties
Lower-middle 25% of properties
Least expensive 25% of properties
Quartile Median Price Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.
No change
Strong upward trend Strong downward trend
Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+
== ≠≠
≠=
SANTA CRUZ, CA95060
Neighborhood Detail
Least Expensive Listing
Average List Price
Average Age of Listing
51
$ 4,900,000
$ 559,000
$ 1,444,700
48
Trend Key:
The market has started cooling andprices have recently plateaued.Since we're in the Seller's zone,watch for changes in MAI. If the MAIresumes its climb, prices will likelyfollow suit. If the MAI dropsconsistently or falls into the Buyer'szone, watch for downward pressureon prices.
Page 7 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95060
Monday October 30, 2017
Median PriceAgain this week in this zip code we see a downward notch for prices. Pricing has been weak in recent weeks and versus theirabsolute-high level. At this point, we will be looking for a persistent upward shift in the Market Action Index as a leadingindicator for a trough in prices.
90-day Average7-day Average
Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have generally settled at a plateau, although Quartile 1 has beentrending a bit downward in recent weeks. We'll need to see a persistent shift in the Market Action Index before we see pricesacross the board move from these levels.
First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom
Page 8 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95060
Monday October 30, 2017
Price per Square FootThe market's downward trends are shared across both price and value. People are recently placing less value on homes (you cansee the recent declines in price per square foot as evidence.) Look for significant changes in the Market Action Index as aprecursor to price and value changes, possibly as inflection points for good investment opportunities.
90-day Average7-day Average
Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.
90-day Average7-day Average
Page 9 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95060
Monday October 30, 2017
Market Action IndexThe SANTA CRUZ, 95060 market is currently quite strongly in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day MarketAction Index stands at 48.48; indicating very little supply relative to the demand.
Buyers/Sellers Cutoff90-day Average
Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly, all segments in this zip code are showing high levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before thewhole market changes. Often one end of the market (e.g. the high-end) will weaken before the rest of the market and signal aslowdown for the whole group.
First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom
Buyers/Sellers Cutoff
Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterizedby analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’sAdvantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.
Page 10 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95060
Monday October 30, 2017
Days on MarketThe properties have been on the market for an average of 80 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in thepast 35 or so days.
90-day Average7-day Average
Days on Market per QuartileIt is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom
Page 11 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Median List Price
Median Lot Size
46.0
Percent Relisted (reset DOM)
1802
2.0
0 %
Median Number of Bathrooms
65
Inventory of Properties Listed
$ 781
Percent Flip (price increased)
4,501 - 6,500 sqft
Median House Size (sq ft)
$ 1,199,000
28 %
3.0
Market Action Index
Median Number of Bedrooms
Asking Price Per Square Foot
56 %
Percent of Properties with Price Decrease
Strong Seller's
±+
≠≠
≠≠
=
=
Altos Research Value Statistics
Most Expensive Listing
Average Days on Market (DoM)
Bottom/Fourth
Lower/Third
Upper/Second
Top/First
This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend
The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuringthe current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to thebuyer.
Supply and Demand
Characteristics per Quartile
26 12720
662.2 53
3.0
1
55
3.0 10
41
1
2
4,501 -6,500 sqft
53
$ 1,099,495
2
0
10
3.5
Less than4,500 sqft
32.0
1611 4,501 -6,500 sqft
10
$ 889,000
3.0
103
Less than4,500 sqft$ 1,495,000
3.0$ 2,400,000
58
5
1760
The Market Action index has beentrending down lately, while days-on-market is climbing, providing mostlybearish signs for the market.
Monday October 30, 2017
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
9
1616
2.0
The median list price in SANTA CRUZ,CA 95062 this week is $1,199,000. The39 properties have been on themarket for an average of 65 days.
Most expensive 25% of properties
Upper-middle 25% of properties
Lower-middle 25% of properties
Least expensive 25% of properties
Quartile Median Price Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.
No change
Strong upward trend Strong downward trend
Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+
== ≠≠
≠=
SANTA CRUZ, CA95062
Neighborhood Detail
Least Expensive Listing
Average List Price
Average Age of Listing
39
$ 6,950,000
$ 739,950
$ 1,788,118
47
Trend Key:
In the last few weeks, the MarketAction Index has resumed a climb.Despite the fact that we're in aSeller's market, prices have not yetresumed upward momentum.However, it is likely that given theseconditions, prices will at least leveloff very soon. If the increasingtrend continues, expect that pricescould shift higher quickly.
Page 12 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95062
Monday October 30, 2017
Median PriceWe continue to see prices in this zip code hovering around these current levels, even though they bumped up a bit this week.Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move significantly from here.
90-day Average7-day Average
Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see the market's price weakness almost across the board. Prices in Quartile 4 have beenmixed recently, while the rest of the market is trending downward. Look for a strong, persistent up shift in the Market ActionIndex as a leading indicator of the trough in the market.
First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom
Page 13 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95062
Monday October 30, 2017
Price per Square FootWhile prices have been basically flat, the price per square foot has been heading downward. While not a sign of broad strengthin a market, larger homes are coming more available and buyers are tending to get more home for their money.
90-day Average7-day Average
Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been relatively steady around these levels in recent weeks.
90-day Average7-day Average
Page 14 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95062
Monday October 30, 2017
Market Action IndexThe SANTA CRUZ, 95062 market is currently quite strongly in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day MarketAction Index stands at 46.00; indicating very little supply relative to the demand.
Buyers/Sellers Cutoff90-day Average
Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly, all segments in this zip code are showing high levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before thewhole market changes. Often one end of the market (e.g. the high-end) will weaken before the rest of the market and signal aslowdown for the whole group.
First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom
Buyers/Sellers Cutoff
Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterizedby analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’sAdvantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.
Page 15 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95062
Monday October 30, 2017
Days on MarketThe properties have been on the market for an average of 65 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in thepast 49 or so days.
90-day Average7-day Average
Days on Market per QuartileIt is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom
Page 16 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Median List Price
Median Lot Size
46.3
Percent Relisted (reset DOM)
2744
2.8
0 %
Median Number of Bathrooms
162
Inventory of Properties Listed
$ 579
Percent Flip (price increased)
2.5 - 5.0 acres
Median House Size (sq ft)
$ 1,472,000
50 %
3.5
Market Action Index
Median Number of Bedrooms
Asking Price Per Square Foot
100 %
Percent of Properties with Price Decrease
Strong Seller's
≠≠
=
±+
==
±+
Altos Research Value Statistics
Most Expensive Listing
Average Days on Market (DoM)
Bottom/Fourth
Lower/Third
Upper/Second
Top/First
This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend
The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuringthe current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to thebuyer.
Supply and Demand
Characteristics per Quartile
10 04500
1192.8 38
2.5
0
63
3.5 2
63
0
1
20+ acres
54
$ 1,472,000
0
0
2
5.5
5.0 - 10acres
03.5
1458 0.25 - 0.50acre
1
$ 693,500
4.0
546
2.5 - 5.0acres$ 1,799,000
4.0$ 4,475,000
40
0
3278
Inventory has been decreasing latelybut the Market Action Index is fallingalso. With days-on-market climbing,these are relatively negativeimplications for the market.
Monday October 30, 2017
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
1
2744
2.0
The median list price in SANTA CRUZ,CA 95065 this week is $1,472,000. The6 properties have been on the marketfor an average of 162 days.
Most expensive 25% of properties
Upper-middle 25% of properties
Lower-middle 25% of properties
Least expensive 25% of properties
Quartile Median Price Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.
No change
Strong upward trend Strong downward trend
Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+
== ≠≠
≠=
SANTA CRUZ, CA95065
Neighborhood Detail
Least Expensive Listing
Average List Price
Average Age of Listing
6
$ 4,475,000
$ 499,000
$ 1,767,500
39
Trend Key:
In the last few weeks the market hasachieved a relative stasis point interms of sales to inventory.However, inventory is sufficientlylow to keep us in the Seller's Marketzone and prices have recentlyresumed upward pressure.
Page 17 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95065
Monday October 30, 2017
Median PriceDespite this week's down tic, price trends in this zip code have generally been moving up lately. We are below the market's highpoint, and we'll investigate the Market Action Index later on to see if we expect this week's blip to become a downward trend.
90-day Average7-day Average
Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see the high-end (Quartiles 1 and 2) of the market in this zip code showing some pricestrength in recent weeks, while Quartile 4 is down and Quartile 3 is at a bit of a plateau. Without strong directional indication inpricing, we look at the Market Action Index for a leading indicator of where prices in general are heading.
First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom
Page 18 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95065
Monday October 30, 2017
Price per Square FootIn a market where prices are rising fairly consistently, price per square foot is essentially flat. This often implies that newhomes coming on the market are pricier, and also larger than older homes. As a result the value one can buy stays the same.
90-day Average7-day Average
Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.
90-day Average7-day Average
Page 19 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95065
Monday October 30, 2017
Market Action IndexThe SANTA CRUZ, 95065 market is currently quite strongly in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day MarketAction Index stands at 46.33; indicating very little supply relative to the demand.
Buyers/Sellers Cutoff90-day Average
Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly, all segments in this zip code are showing high levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before thewhole market changes. Often one end of the market (e.g. the high-end) will weaken before the rest of the market and signal aslowdown for the whole group.
First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom
Buyers/Sellers Cutoff
Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterizedby analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’sAdvantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.
Page 20 of 21
Single Family Homes in
Kristin Evans | Altos Research | 415-932-8152
Neighborhood DetailSANTA CRUZ, CA
95065
Monday October 30, 2017
Days on MarketThe properties have been on the market for an average of 162 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in thepast 91 or so days.
90-day Average7-day Average
Days on Market per QuartileIt is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.