KPMG Global Trade Update and Mitigating the Impact of Tariffs...— Additional 15% tariffs on “List 4a” effective September 1st, 2019 and “List 4b” effective December 15th,
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US-China: 301 tariffs to continue— Additional 15% tariffs on “List 4a” effective September 1st, 2019 and
“List 4b” effective December 15th, 2019 — USTR is proposing to increase “List 1-3” tariffs to 30% effective
October 15th, 2019 and comments are due by September 20th, 2019— Dispute is about more than just tariffs: it’s mostly about technology— Even as negotiations progress, China may have to show
concessions before 301 goes away
Steel, aluminum, and autos (section 232 tariffs)— A truce with the EU, but it may not hold due to National
Security Risks
USMCA— US, Mexico and Canada agree on NAFTA 2.0, but challenges
remain (timing, ratification)
Global trade tensions will remain elevated— Not everything threatened will happen, but U.S. is
Steel/Aluminum: Implemented May/June 2019 tariffs of 25% on Steel and 10% on Aluminum.
AUTOS: Delayed On May 17, 2019, the Trump Administration delayed a decision to impose auto tariffs until December 2019.
National security threat
Section 232
$34B in products
Implemented July 6, 2018 at 25%*; Response to China for unfair trade practices; potential IP theft, tech transfer, & innovation
List 1
Section 301
List 2 List 3
$16B in products
Implemented August 23, 2018 at 25*%
$200B in products
Implemented September 24, 2018 at 10%;
Increased to 25% on June 1, 2019*
Solar panels and washing machines
Solar: Implemented February, 2018. The Trump administration implemented 30% global tariffs on imported solar cells and modules.
Washing Machines: Implemented January 2018 at 20%.
U.S. RATIONALE
TARGET
Harming U.S. industries
Section 201
1) See USTR fact sheet, “Section 201 Cases: Imported Large Residential Washing Machines and Imported Solar Cells and Modules.” 2) See Federal Register Vol. 83, No. 119, pg. 28710. 3) See Federal Register Vol. 83, No. 119, pg. 28710. 4) See Federal Register Vol. 83, No. 137, pg. 33608. 5) See April 27, 2017 White House memorandum to Commerce Dept., titled “Aluminum Imports and Threats to National Security.” 6) See Presidential Proclamations 9704 and 9705 on March 8, 2018. 7) See Presidential Proclamations from March through May 2018. 8) See May 23, 2018 White House memorandum to Commerce Dept. regarding Section 232 investigation related to automobiles.
List 4A
$120B in products
To be Implemented December 15, 2019 at 15%
List 4B
$160B in products
To be Implemented September 1, 2019 at 15%*
*Note that Section 301 Lists 1-3 duty rates are proposed to increase from 25% to 30% effective October 15th, 2019 and comments are due by September 20th 2019
“Businesses have come to realize that with geopolitical uncertainty comes either paralysis or opportunity. Most are now choosing opportunity. And those that can read the interconnected, proverbial tea leaves and are willing to take unflinching action are coming out ahead.” Douglas Zuvich, Partner and Global Practice Leader Trade and Customs, KPMG LLP
Companies scramble to ease impact of China Tariffs, CFO.com, June 19, 2019
Examples of Possible Supply Chain Tactics to Minimize Impact
— Local sourcing appeals to consumers, improves supply chain velocity and cuts costs
— Provides for better quality control and supplier communication and collaboration
— Helps eliminate waste and excess inventory
— Locating manufacturing (either direct or indirect via 3rd party mfg.) close to key markets can also reduce costs: - Eliminate currency fluctuations- Import/Export duties and taxes- Lower transportation & distribution costs
— Improves speed-to-market and improves response times to changing customer demands
— Move sourcing to suppliers in countries that have more favorable trade policies with the United States to mitigate higher tariffs costs
— Renegotiate contracts with supplier to reduce input costs
— Helps to ensure availability of key raw materials and/or component parts particular in a competitive market place where there is limited supply of materials (i.e. shortages)
— As shared in the earlier section, where possible, convert your existing plant or assembly warehouse into an FTZ or bonded warehouse to take advantage of trade laws that allow for re-exportation of duty free goods
1
4
2
3
Increase local sourcing of supplies
(where possible)
Diversify your supplier base to reduce cost and minimize interruption to
… Leveraging Key Data through the ProcessCost Factors Other Key Factors
Business Costs— Facilities: industrial, office— Labor: wages, salaries, benefits— Transportation and distribution— Utilities— Financing— Federal, regional, local taxes— State and local support
Cost of Living— Personal taxes— Cost of housing— Cost of consumer products and services— Healthcare costs— Education costs
Quality of Life— Healthcare facilities— Schools and universities— Crime rates— Climate— Culture and recreation— Cultural openness
Business Environment— Labor availability and quality— Education— Access to markets, customers, suppliers— Road, rail, port, airport infrastructure— Utility reliability— Regulatory environment— Labor Union/Right-to-work— Airport connectivity to/from China
• Timeline: ~90 days to submit an exclusion request• Who can submit:
• Interested persons• Trade Associations
• Exclusions are granted for past 301 duties paid (refunds) to date of implementation of the tariffs; plus 1 year from date of publication of the granted exclusion
• Exclusions are product specific, not company specific. i.e. any importer can use the exclusion (ball bearings)
• Most granted exclusions are based on narrowly defined product descriptions, not HTS code
• Analyze your data. Whether import data or purchasing forecast data, and identify which products are most impacted
• 3 Criteria:• Whether the tariffs cause severe economic harm to your firm or
other US interests• Whether the particular product is only available from China;
noting whether there are US or third party sources• Whether the product is part of the “Made in China 2025”
industrial policy
• Select products for exclusions: If you feel you have a strong argument in all three categories, and financial impact is high, the product is a good candidate for an exclusion
—Describe impact on profitability- Product is a crucial component that makes up XX% of the value of
most important product. Additional duties on the product would lead to a significant loss of market share, revenue, etc. (in the amount of $XX).
—Describe indirect impact on U.S. jobs - Additional duties will result in significant layoffs. Ninety percent of
Firm’s revenue is generated by sales to U.S. companies, both OEM and aftermarket customers. Firm employs over 500 people in a city with a total population of less than 30,000.
—Describe impact on investment plans- The Firm will be unable to move forward with current investment
plans while shifting focus on finding sourcing outside of China. Currently, the Firm has plans to increase employment and/or expand our US factory (or R&D Center), however the additional tariffs have put a hold on those plans.
—Describe economic impact on downstream industries- We anticipate further harm in already vulnerable industries (e.g.
trucking, other transport) due to decreased sales. Or, this product is critical for the healthcare industry and the increased prices may increase healthcare costs nationwide.
—Describe challenges associated with moving sourcing outside of China- The market for product is competitive. No suppliers (in U.S. or
outside of China) can competitively manufacture the volume of the product and meet quality standards, while maintaining low labor, material, and tooling costs. Relocation requires approval of standards body.
—Describe plans for, and attempts at, sourcing outside of China- Firm has already begun talks with a factory outside of China and
—Don’t make general statements without supporting evidence:- This tariff will have significant financial harm.- The additional tariffs will cause us to delay investment.
—Don’t vaguely describe your product, or describe it mostly due its function.
—Don’t provide a short or general answer to any of the criteria questions, including whether the product is part of the Made in China 2025 industrial policy.
CBP Scrutiny is expectedDetecting unlawful circumvention is a top priority for CBP
― The Wall Street Journal and other news outlets have reported an increase in unlawful activities to circumvent the 301 tariffs, including:
(1) “transshipment” of products through third countries(2) conducting minor processing of goods in a third country(3) shipping components into the United States for minor assembly in so-called
“screwdriver” operations
― US Customs and Border Protection is aware of these practices and is leveraging advanced data analytics to target importers it believes may be avoiding 301 tariffs, legitimately or otherwise
― Customs enforcement mechanisms include using CF28 requests for information, investigations, audits, and even sending overseas jump teams to validate importer claims
Companies will need to develop insights into their ability to pivot around new tariffs, protectionist stances or whatever the next wave will be while considering their current contingency plans and risk diversification opportunities.
In doing so, it’s important to assemble a cross-functional team with deep subject matter experience to provide insights and recommendations regarding the potential impacts to a company’s— Supply chain footprint strategy— Operating model— Brand strategy — Capital structure— Trade and tax positions
Companies should be prepared to answer questions such as:
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