Kopernik Global Investors 1Q 2018 Conference Call Presented by: David B. Iben, CFA CIO & Lead Portfolio Manager
Kopernik Global Investors1Q 2018 Conference Call
Presented by:David B. Iben, CFACIO & Lead Portfolio Manager
Mutual Funds42%
Separate Accounts32%
UCITS17%
Private Funds9%
• Leadership and ownership by investment professionals
• 100% employee owned
• Equity participation for all professionals
• Principals invest alongside clients
• Capacity to be limited, enhancing return potentialTotal Managed and Advisory Only Assets by Type (As of 3/31/2018)
• Kopernik Global All-Cap
• Kopernik Global Unconstrained
• Kopernik Global Long-Term Opportunities (formerly Global Real Asset)
• Kopernik International
Centering on Client Success
Managed AssetsMutual Funds $1,366.43 MMPrivate Funds $285.56 MMUCITS (Sub-advised) $559.95 MMSeparate Accounts $1,068.62 MM
Total Firm AUM $3,280.56 MM
Advisory Only AssetsSeparate Accounts $240.43 MM
Total Managed and Advisory Only Assets: $3,520.99 MM
Kopernik Global Investors, LLC (“Kopernik”) is a globalequity investment management specialist, organized toensure a culture centered on client success.
Focused Offerings
Assets as of March 31, 2018 are preliminary.
Total Firm AUM Breakdown
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Like our namesake, we are dedicated to reasoning over convention and to clients’ needs above convenience.
Our Investment Beliefs
Independent thought
Long-term global perspective
Limited capacity
Value as a prerequisite
Bottom-up fundamental analysis
Industry-tailored valuations
Group vetting
Mikolaj Kopernik, better known by the Latin spelling, Nicolaus Copernicus, proposed the heliocentric model of the universe in the early 1500s. Whatinterests us is the fact that he trusted his own observations instead of accepting what “everyone” thought to be true. He faced scorn for his “novel andincomprehensible” theses. Though primarily an astronomer, Kopernik set forth a version of the “quantity theory of money,” a principal concept ineconomics to the present day. He also formulated a version of Gresham’s Law, predating Gresham.
As independent thinkers, Kopernik Global Investors honors Mikolaj Kopernik in the contemporary investment world. We believe that accomplishedinvestors who trust their own analyses and instincts can generate significant excess returns as a result of market inefficiencies driven by erroneousprofessional and academic theories and practices.
Achieving Value through Independent Thought
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1973Welcome to the 1st Quarter Conference Call For
That’s Right - We Said 1973
• Market Hits a New All-time High in January, Then Begins to Sputter
• After ¼ Century of High Global Esteem Following Global Success, US Standing is Waning
• Following A Decade of Shockingly Undisciplined Monetary Policies, Inflation Begins to Migrate from Asset Prices Into the CPIand Wages
• Following a Decade of Shockingly Undisciplined Fiscal Policies, It Becomes Even Less Disciplined
• Following a Long Period of Interest Rate Suppression, Rates Have Moved Up in Recent Quarters
• Loan Delinquency Accelerates Meaningfully
• Gold Moved Up, Following an Extended Period of Weakness
• US Tries to Extricate Itself From Foreign Conflict; Resents Russian Meddling
• Turmoil at the Executive Level, Turnover in the Cabinet, President Accused of Misconduct and Investigated.
And, to Repeat, the Stock Market Hit an All Time High in January!
Q1 1973 In Review
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We Know…
• Syria is Not Vietnam
• Cold War wasn’t WWII
• Trump is Not Nixon
• FAANG & TATS ain’t the Nifty Fifty
• The Radically Creative Policies of Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen are Light Years Away from the Mundane, Expansive Monetary Policy of Arthur Burns
• NAFTA, TPP, etc., are not Bretten Woods (Nor Smoot-Hanley)
• But: 1973 or 2018 When S#!t happens, the Market Doesn’t Care!
• DJIA Hit an All-Time of $26,000, not $1,000
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”
- Mark Twain
Time Traveling Back to 2018 – Deja Vu
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0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
June-16 September-16 December-16 March-17 June-17 September-17 December-17 March-18
U.S. Treasury | 2 Year BondMid Yield To ConventionJune 2016 - April 2018 Source: Bloomberg
2018 – Interest Rates Rising – Who Cares?
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Volatility Rising – C’est La Vie
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Cost of Living Accelerating – What me Worry?
Debt & Deficits Rising?The More the Merrier.
And of Course, Trade Wars Are Good
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$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
S&P 500May 2009 - April 2018
Source: Bloomberg
The Correction that Almost Happened
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Investment StrategyHistory and logic both suggest that now may not
be an ideal time to follow the crowd!
$60
$70
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$100
$110
$120
$130
Jan-72 Jul-72 Jan-73 Jul-73 Jan-74 Jul-74
S&P 500 | 1972-1974 Source: Bloomberg
A man who wants to lead theorchestra must turn his backon the crowd.
-Max Lucado
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“If you want to have better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.”
- John TempletonAs of December 31, 2017
Performance Metrics Kopernik Global All-Cap Peers1 MSCI ACWI
(Net)Kopernik
International Peers2 MSCI ACWI ex U.S. (Net)
Active Share 99.5 91.0 -- 99.3 91.3 --Non-Index Holdings3 66% -- -- 32% -- --
YTDCorrelation to Index 0.1 0.6 -- 0.3 0.8 --Standard Deviation 11.3 4.5 2.8 7.9 5.4 3.9Tracking Error 11.3 3.8 -- 7.6 3.5 --
1 Yr.Correlation to Index 0.1 0.6 -- 0.3 0.8 --Standard Deviation 11.3 4.5 2.8 7.9 5.4 3.9Tracking Error 11.3 3.8 -- 7.6 3.5 --
3 Yr.Correlation to Index 0.6 0.9 -- -- -- --Standard Deviation 21.6 11.0 10.5 -- -- --Tracking Error 17.9 4.5 -- -- -- --
Source: eVestment Global Database (updated quarterly)1 Peer Group: eVestment Global Value Equity – Median Values2 Peer Group: eVestment ACWI ex US All-Cap Value Equity – Median Values 3 48 of the 73 (66%) total holdings in Global All-Cap are not represented in the MSCI ACWI Index, 13 of the 41 (32%) total holdings in International are not represented in the
MSCI ACWI ex U.S. Index.
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Because the “Market” is Expensive, is No reason to BuyExpensive Stocks
Characteristics above are based on the holdings of a model portfolio as of March 31, 2018 and are calculated using data from Bloomberg. Unless otherwise indicated, portfolio characteristics calculated using harmonicweighted average, a method of calculating an average value that lessens the impact of large outliers. The MSCI All Country World Index is a broad-based securities market index that captures 2,495 primarily large and midcap companies across 23 developed and 24 emerging market countries as of March 31, 2018. The MSCI All Country World Index is different from the strategy in a number of material respects, including being much morediversified among companies and countries, having less exposure to emerging market and small cap companies, and having no ability to invest in fixed income or derivative securities.
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Kopernik Global All-Cap Portfolio Characteristics, as of March 31, 2018
2.25
0.71
Trailing P/B Ratio(Price to Book)
2.50
0.74
Trailing P/TBV(Price to Tangible Book Value)
1.95
1.46
Trailing EV/S Ratio(Enterprise Value to Sale)
12.39
6.17
Trailing P/CF Ratio(Price to Cash Flow)
$132,354
$15,615
Weighted Average Market Cap ($USD, Milions)
$11,135
$1,484
Median Market Cap ($USD, Milions)
18.52
18.89
Trailing P/E Ratio(Price to Earnings)
2.41
2.47
Yield TTM(Trailing Twelve Months)
The Kopernik Strategy for an ETF Infested MarketFollow Wee Willie Keeler’s Advice:
“Keep Your Eyes Clear and Hit ‘em Where They Ain’t”
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Canada Emerging Markets Europe Japan Pacific ex Japan US
Portfolio Region Weights*
Portfolio Sector Weights* Top Ten HoldingsName Country Port Weight %
Cameco Corp Canada 5.00Gazprom PJSC Russia 4.25Newcrest Mining Ltd Australia 4.00Electricite de France SA France 3.75Range Resources Corp United States 3.25RusHydro PJSC Russia 3.00MEG Energy Corp Canada 3.00KT Corp South Korea 3.00Golden Agri-Resources Ltd Singapore 2.75Mitsui & Co Ltd Japan 2.75
Global All-Cap – Model Portfolio Characteristics (as of 3/31/2018)
*Does not include Options, which were approximately 1.00% of the portfolio as of March 31, 2018.**Small-Cap = less than $2 billion, Mid-Cap = $2 billion - $10 billion, Large-Cap = greater than $10 billionPortfolio weights and characteristics above are based on the holdings of a model portfolio as of March 31, 2018. Portfolio characteristics, sector and country designations are calculated using data from Bloomberg. The MSCIAll Country World Index is a broad-based securities market index that captures 2,495 primarily large and mid cap companies across 23 developed and 24 emerging market countries as of March 31, 2018. The MSCI AllCountry World Index is different from the strategy in a number of material respects, including being much more diversified among companies and countries, having less exposure to emerging market and small cap companies,and having no ability to invest in fixed income or derivative securities.
Portfolio % MSCI ACWI %Large-Cap** 26.8 90.2Mid-Cap** 34.2 9.7Small-Cap** 33.6 0.1
Developed Markets 59.5 87.8Emerging Markets 35.0 12.2
U.S. 6.9 52.3Non U.S. 87.6 47.7
Portfolio Characteristics
Excludes non-equity securities
The Idiosyncratic Results of Buying Low and Selling High
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Canada Emerging Markets Europe Japan Pacific ex Japan US
Portfolio Region Weights*
Portfolio Sector Weights* Top Ten HoldingsName Country Port Weight %
Newcrest Mining Ltd Australia 4.50Cameco Corp Canada 4.50Gazprom PJSC Russia 4.25Wheaton Precious Metals Corp Canada 3.75Barrick Gold Corp Canada 3.50Royal Gold Inc United States 3.00Novagold Resources Inc Canada 2.50KT Corp South Korea 2.50Goldcorp Inc Canada 2.00LUKOIL PJSC Russia 2.00
International – Model Portfolio Characteristics (as of 3/31/2018)
*Does not include Options, which were less than 1.00% of the portfolio as of March 31, 2018.**Small-Cap = less than $2 billion, Mid-Cap = $2 billion - $10 billion, Large-Cap = greater than $10 billionPortfolio weights and characteristics above are based on the holdings of a model portfolio as of March 31, 2018. Portfolio characteristics, sector and country designations are calculated using data from Bloomberg. Harmonicweighted average is a method of calculating an average value that lessens the impact of large outliers. The MSCI All Country World ex U.S. Index is a broad-based securities market index that captures 1,864 primarily largeand mid cap companies across 22 developed and 24 emerging market countries as of March 31, 2018. The MSCI All Country World ex U.S. Index is different from the strategy in a number of material respects, including beingmuch more diversified among companies and countries, having less exposure to emerging market and small cap companies, and having no ability to invest in fixed income or derivative securities.
Portfolio % MSCI ACWI ex US %Large-Cap** 23.6 83.9Mid-Cap** 29.5 15.9Small-Cap** 10.2 0.2
Developed Markets 36.8 74.4Emerging Markets 26.5 25.6
U.S. 3.0 0.0Non U.S. 60.3 100.0
Portfolio Characteristics
Excludes non-equity securities
The Idiosyncratic Results of Buying Low and Selling High
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Invest In Scarcity Meet Needs
Minimize Exposure to DisruptionCategory Scarce? Needed? Likely To Be DisruptedTechnology No Probably YesContemporary Smart Phone No Possibly YesEntertainment No Probably YesHealth Care No Yes YesConsumer Discretionary No Not Most YesIndustrial Equipment ? Yes YesDebt No Debatable YesFiat Money No Some YesGold Yes Debatable NoFood Debatable Yes NoClean Energy Yes No, but desired NoCommunication Infrastructure Somewhat Yes Long-TermPetroleum Probably Probably PossiblyPeople No Yes Fascinating TopicActive Management Increasingly Yes Fascinating Topic
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People Are Not Scarce
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Uranium – The Solution to Low Prices is Low Prices
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Will These Multi-Billion Dollar Facilities Lay Idle?
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$200
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$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18
Gold vs Gold Miners ETF (GDX) vs Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)January 2011 - March 2018
Gold VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
Source: Bloomberg
We Talk Too Much About Gold And Yet, Not Nearly Enough
FLAT
-65%
-80%
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$900
$920
$940
$960
$980
$1,000
$1,020
$1,040
$1,060
1/1/18 1/11/18 1/21/18 1/31/18 2/10/18 2/20/18 3/2/18 3/12/18 3/22/18 4/1/18 4/11/18
Gold vs Gold Miners ETF (GDX)January 2018 - April 2018
Gold VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF
Source: Bloomberg
In Q1, the giant divide between the price of gold aboveground and the price of gold underground becameenormous
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Company Proved Reserves Avg Daily Production Market Cap Enterprise Value Million barrels Thousand BPD Mkt Cap+Net Liab.
Gazprom 121,458 8,750 $55,171 $91,803
1. Exxon 21,221 3,985 $331,790 $438,847
2. Royal Dutch/Shell 12,200 3,664 $291,043 $404,924
3. Chevron 11,665 2,728 $232,105 $308,032
4. PetroChina 8,721 3,994 $212,081 $304,007
5. Total 11,475 2,566 $162,432 $198,737
6. BP 18,441 3,551 $143,831 $244,974
7. Statoil 5,367 2,080 $86,285 $130,311
8. Conoco/Phillips 5,038 1,377 $77,892 $103,941
9. CNOOC 4,456 1,288 $72,118 $87,242
10. ENI 6,990 1,816 $70,772 $107,379
11. Suncor Energy 4,778 685 $62,007 $89,575
12. Canadian Natural Resources 8,871 894 $42,636 $72,425
Total Above 12 Companies 119,223 28,628 $1,784,991 $2,490,393Gas Pipeline
Gas Storage Capacity
Gas Throughput Market Cap
Enterprise Value
Miles BCF BCF Gazprom 106,500 2,600 21,987 $55,171 $91,803Enterprise Product Prtnrs 50,000 14 12,305 $58,631 $83,770Kinder Morgan 85,000 771 29,108 $35,341 $76,557Williams Companies 15,400 - 12,420 $21,294 $49,292
Electric Generating
Capacity Electricity
Generation Market Cap Enterprise
Value MW Billion kwh
Gazprom 40,249 158 $55,171 $91,803Duke Power 52,232 253 $54,998 $142,722Southern Company 45,668 206 $46,395 $121,476Iberdrola 59,661 230 $50,168 $115,673RWE 46,411 261 $16,214 $56,732
Refining Capacity
Service Stations Market Cap
Enterprise Value
kbpd Gazprom 1,097 1,859 $55,171 $91,803Andeavor 1,200 3,100 $17,669 $25,944Phillips 66 2,116 7,550 $50,298 $62,851Valero 3,000 7,400 $45,975 $53,921Marathon Petroleum 1,900 5,600 $37,263 $51,081
Source: Bloomberg, Company Financials
Making the Case
Does value come from expected cash or is cash likely to be generated from things that are intrinsically valuable?
Potential UpsideYear 50.0% 100.0% 150.0%
1 50.0% 100.0% 150.0%
Inte
rnal
Rate
of R
etur
n
2 22.5% 41.2% 58.1%
3 14.5% 26.0% 35.7%
4 10.7% 18.9% 25.7%
5 8.5% 14.9% 20.1%
6 7.0% 12.3% 16.5%
7 6.0% 10.4% 14.0%
8 5.2% 9.1% 12.1%
9 4.6% 8.0% 10.7%
10 4.1% 7.2% 9.6%
THANK YOUQ&A Session
A copy of this presentation is available on www.kopernikglobal.com.
The information presented herein is proprietary to Kopernik Global Investors, LLC. This material is approved for a presentation to authorized individuals only and, accordingly, thismaterial is not to be reproduced in whole or in part or used for any purpose except as authorized by Kopernik Global Investors, LLC.
Please consider all risks carefully before investing. The accounts managed according to the Global All-Cap investment strategy are subject to certain risks such as market,investment style, interest rate, deflation, and illiquidity risk. Investments in small and mid-capitalization companies also involve greater risk and portfolio price volatility thaninvestments in larger capitalization stocks. Investing in non-U.S. markets, including emerging and frontier markets, involves certain additional risks, including potential currencyfluctuations and controls, restrictions on foreign investments, less governmental supervision and regulation, less liquidity, less disclosure, and the potential for market volatility,expropriation, confiscatory taxation, and social, economic and political instability. Investments in energy and natural resources companies are especially affected bydevelopments in the commodities markets, the supply of and demand for specific resources, raw materials, products and services, the price of oil and gas, exploration andproduction spending, government regulation, economic conditions, international political developments, energy conservation efforts and the success of exploration projects. Therecan be no assurances that investment objectives will be achieved.
Kopernik Global Investors, LLC is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.
This document, as of April 19, 2018 is descriptive of how the Kopernik team manages its strategies. There is no guarantee that any strategy’s investment performance objectiveswill be achieved. This profile is not legally binding on Kopernik Global Investors, LLC or its affiliates.
© 2018 Kopernik Global Investors, LLC | Two Harbour Place | 302 Knights Run Avenue Suite 1225 | Tampa, Florida 33602 | 813.314.6100 | www.kopernikglobal.com
Important Information
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