Fall, 2009 Integrated Company Analysis For over one hundred years, Eastman Kodak Company has provided imaging products to consumers, earning brand equity through innovation. Today, Kodak struggles with declining revenue and steep restructuring costs as it transitions to the digital imaging market. Wisconsin School of Business 975 University Ave Madison, WI 53706 608-262-1550 Alejandro Castano Joe Czechowicz Troy Golden Matt Johnson Lindsay Kruger
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Fall
, 2009
Inte
gra
ted
Com
pan
y A
naly
sis
For over one hundred years, Eastman Kodak Company has provided imaging
products to consumers, earning brand equity through innovation. Today, Kodak
struggles with declining revenue and steep restructuring costs as it transitions to
Company Analysis .................................................................................................................................................................. 5
Quality of Financial Statements ...................................................................................................................................... 6
Financing and Capital Structure ...................................................................................................................................... 7
Digital Cameras............................................................................................................................................................. 14
Digital Picture Frames .................................................................................................................................................. 16
Exhibit 2 – ―It‘s time to smile‖ Campaign ........................................................................................................................ 18
Point And Shoot Models: Rankings And Price ............................................................................................................. 23
Compiled from ConsumerReports.org .......................................................................................................................... 23
Exhibit 7 – Competitor Business Descriptions ................................................................................................................. 25
Canon Inc. ..................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Sony Corp. .................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Lexmark International Inc. ............................................................................................................................................ 27
Exhibit 12 – EK Pro Forma Financial Statements ............................................................................................................ 34
Exhibit 13 – CDG Pro Forma Financial Statements ......................................................................................................... 35
Exhibit 14 – FPEG Pro Forma Financial Statements ........................................................................................................ 36
Exhibit 15 – GCG Pro Forma Financial Statements ......................................................................................................... 37
Exhibit 16 – Segment Valuations and Key Assumptions ................................................................................................. 38
Exhibit 17 – Regression Analysis of Traditional Sales Lines ........................................................................................... 39
Exhibit 18 – Sensitivity Analysis of Stock Price .............................................................................................................. 43
Exhibit 19 – Cash Benefit of Financing Transactions ...................................................................................................... 44
Works Cited .......................................................................................................................................................................... 45
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Executive Summary Eastman Kodak Co. was founded in 1892 by George Eastman and offers imaging products for leisure,
commercial, entertainment, and scientific purposes. Traded on the New York Stock Exchange (symbol: EK), the
company reported over $9 billion in revenue and $9 billion in assets in FY08. Kodak is organized along three segments:
the Graphic Communications Group (GCG); the Film, Photofinishing, and Entertainment Group (FPEG); and the
Consumer Digital Imaging Group (CDG). Kodak‘s history is one of innovation, but the company was slow to react to the
digital revolution. Kodak has struggled to overcome this legacy ever since.
Through our due diligence, we have uncovered that Kodak must improve gross margins to become profitable in
2010. Our sensitivity analysis shows that sales growth alone will not lead to profitability. We have identified a target
gross margin of 27.5% to become profitable in 2010.
Kodak entered into two financing transactions over the past two months involving convertible debt and warrants.
These transactions allowed Kodak to raise almost $700 million in cash, while saving around $35 million per year in
interest. In exchange for the savings, existing shareholders will potentially give up 25% of the equity value. Kodak also
continues to sell significant assets and intellectual property rights, including its OLED business, a potential next-
generation flat-panel display technology that Kodak pioneered over the last couple of decades (Kodak, 2009).
Kodak positions itself as the user-friendly choice for amateur users of imaging products. The company‘s product
attributes detract from this position. In general, Kodak products are priced below the competition. Kodak‘s lower price,
though offering a benefit to some consumers, signals inferior quality to the market. Kodak‘s placement strategy employs
wide market coverage, ensuring easy access for consumers. Presently, Kodak does not direct consumers to preferred
channels. Kodak recently launched an integrated, multi-media marketing campaign. The campaign touches on multiple
product lines, rather than emphasizing an ‗energizer‘ product.
The following are our key recommendations: (1) redesign Kodak‘s marketing communication message to position
it as the premier provider of imaging solutions that connects the consumer with their loved ones; (2) through marketing
communications, walk the consumer from image capturing, through storage, to sharing, allowing them to process each of
Kodak‘s product offerings; (3) increase marketing focus on digital cameras to leverage brand equity (reposition); (4)
increase prices on digital cameras.
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Company Analysis
Organizational Structure
Eastman Kodak is an international corporation with over 24,000 employees, over $9 billion in annual sales
(FY08), and over $9 billion in assets (FY08).
The company is organized along three segments: the Graphic Communications Group (GCG); the Film,
Photofinishing, Entertainment Group (FPEG); and the Consumer Digital Imaging Group (CDG). Thirty-nine percent of
Kodak‘s revenue comes from the GCG segment, which provides products and services to businesses with large scale
printing operations. Thirty-one percent of Kodak‘s revenue comes from the FPEG segment, which provides traditional
photographic products and services to consumer, professional, and industrial markets. Thirty percent of Kodak‘s revenue
comes from the CDG segment, which provides digital consumer products.
Kodak began in the late nineteenth century with George Eastman‘s advance in dry plate technology, which
allowed photography to become an amateur pursuit. Since then, Kodak has continued to excel in technological
innovation. The company issued over 19,000 U.S. patents between 1900 and 1999. In 1935, Kodak introduced
Kodachrome film, the first commercially successful amateur color film. NASA relied on a Kodak camera to take photos
on the moon and transmit them to earth. Also, Kodak invented the first digital camera in 1975 (Kodak, 2009).
Kodak reacted slowly to the digital revolution. Since the takeoff of digital cameras, Kodak has seen revenues
plummet from $15 billion to $9.4 billion (Butcher, 2009). Kodak has cut 40,000 jobs over the last five years, and plans to
eliminate 3,500 to 4,500 in 2009 (Dobbin, 2009). Since 2003, Kodak has sought to meet this challenge with robust
restructuring programs. Approximately 80% of Kodak revenue is from new products and services developed within the
last five years (Butcher, 2009). Approximately 60% of Kodak employees have been there less than four years (Butcher,
2009).
Financial Analysis
Performance Indicators
Kodak faces the challenge of high restructuring costs and declining demand for its digital products, while trying
to redefine its organizational structure and brand name. On top of company-specific problems, Kodak faces a stiff macro-
economic headwind, as consumers continue to watch their spending on luxury items. To combat these problems, Kodak
has cut costs via layoffs and reductions in R&D expenditures, removed dividend payments to common stockholders and
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targeted its cash conversion cycle. In the near term, Kodak appears to be poorly positioned to handle an extended
economic contraction, and must act immediately to generate additional revenues and profits.
Negatives for FY08 vs. Competitors
Revenues: Kodak experienced revenue growth (pro-forma) of -2.5% and -8.6% in FY07 and FY08, respectively.
The median competitor revenue growth was 6.7% and -8.6% in FY07 and FY08, respectively. We attribute the quicker
revenue decline to the company‘s inability to resonate with consumers.
Rapidly declining gross margins. Since Kodak introduced its ―digital plan‖ in 2003, gross margins have declined
sharply from a high of 36% to the current low of around 20% (23% FY08 vs. competitor median of 36%). The decline in
margins is a pressing issue. We believe our marketing recommendations give Kodak the best chance of survival.
Return-on-Equity (Dupont): Kodak has seen its ROE go from 24.5% in FY02 (vs. 6.6% for competitors) to -
44.4% in FY05 (vs. 10.4% for competitors), to -36.4% (vs. 0.6% for competitors) in FY08. One of the distinguishing
detractors comes from Kodak‘s above median equity multiplier at 5.4x (vs. 2.7x for competitors). As the industry and
economy deteriorated, Kodak suffered from higher financial leverage relative to its peers (3-yr average of 6.4x vs. 2.7x
for competitors) that accelerated the decline of profitability.
Positives for FY08 vs. Competitors
Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC): Kodak has reduced its cash conversion cycle to -5 days for FY08, versus a
competitor median of 82 days (FactSet Research Systems, 2009). Kodak accomplished the improvement in CCC through
extensions of terms on accounts payable, while maintaining steady inventory and days of sales outstanding.
Lean operating costs: Kodak has been successful in cutting SG&A costs as a percentage of sales. By reducing its
workforce, Kodak expects future cost savings of over $300 million. Current operating costs (ex-restructuring and goodwill
write-offs) of 22% are well below Canon (35%), Fujifilm (35%) and Nikon (31%). If Kodak can survive the economic
contraction and continue to operate at current levels in comparison to its competitors, we believe the company can survive
and return to profitability.
Quality of Financial Statements
Kodak reports under US GAAP (Exhibit 9). Inconsistency in Kodak‘s financial reports inhibits the ability to
serially compare and forecast financial performance. Through our due diligence process, we discovered that Kodak is
more aggressive (8%) than Canon in respect to estimating expected returns on assets (6.5%) of pension plan obligations.
7
Restatements: Kodak restated financial statements in 2003 and 2004 due to mistakes in reporting income taxes,
accruals for pensions and other post-retirement benefits due to the rapid turnover (firing) of 15,000 workers. The
restatement reduced reported earnings by $85 million (effect from income tax error - $56 million, effect from pension
errors – $29 million), decreased retained earnings and decreased cash flow from operations.
Reclassifications: Continuous restructuring of the company prevents proper historical comparisons beyond three
years. The reclassifications also introduce discrepancies between segment breakdowns and total firm numbers.
Change in useful life of assets: In the first quarter of 2008, the company performed an updated analysis of
expected useful lives on its traditional film and paper business. This analysis resulted in an increase in useful lives, which
in turn will result in decreasing depreciation expenses ($107 million), increasing net income, increasing retained earnings
and increasing assets in the future.
Impairment of goodwill: In 4Q08, Kodak re-evaluated all of its business segments with an increased WACC
between 18.5% and 23.0% to reflect the rapidly deteriorating environment. Due to the estimated future cash flows being
less than the overall cost of the GCG segment, Kodak reported a pre-tax, non-cash $785 million impairment charge.
Financing and Capital Structure
Many of Kodak‘s financing decisions are being dictated by its weak financial position. The company is relying on
convertible securities and warrants in order to secure debt financing at bearable costs (around 8.5%, Exhibit 19) while
giving up significant upside of around 25% of common stock if the company recovers. Equity financing is not an option
due to the low market value of Kodak‘s common stock relative to its operating and financing cash needs. It has decided to
cut its dividend and discontinue stock repurchases after spending over $450 million of needed cash in 2008.
Valuation
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
We valuate Kodak‘s stock at $5.32. This makes the share price of $4.40 as of 12/11/09 slightly undervalued. The
DCF analysis was performed using a two-stage model in which we estimated the cash flows for Kodak‘s three business
segments, CDG, FPEG and GCG, through 2018, and then calculated a terminal value based on assumed long-term growth
rates (Exhibits 15).
Kodak has re-organized its business segments repeatedly, making it difficult to compare revenues and costs over a
long period and establish any significant trend at the segment level. Second, the business is undergoing rapid changes as a
result of the technological shift to digital products, which has increased volatility and made it very difficult to establish
8
any kind of even a short-term trend. We ended up using a regression model of Kodak‘s overall revenues with several
factors related to their traditional business segments to predict revenues going forward for GCG and FPEG, which most
closely resemble Kodak‘s traditional combined business lines since 1990 (Exhibit 16). Finally, we believe that our WACC
calculation could be undervaluing Kodak‘s risk based on management expectations for the cost of capital (Kodak, 2009).
Exhibit 17 contains a sensitivity table of the stock value based on WACC and long-term growth rates.
WACC
We estimated a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 15.1% for the overall company based on a risk-free
rate of 3.2%, and a market risk premium of 7.4%1 (Kavajecz, 2009, p. 19). We calculated Kodak‘s equity beta of 1.68
from September 2002 through November 2009. We chose this time period to accurately reflect the increased volatility of
Kodak‘s share price relative to the market based on the company‘s digital transition. We also used industry comparables
to estimate the cost of capital for each of Kodak‘s business units, and then increased them by a factor based on the
company WACC, which we assume reflects significant additional risk of bankruptcy as indicated by the stock volatility
relative to the S&P 500 (Exhibit 15).
Kodak’s Current Marketing Strategy
Consumer
Kodak is likely targeting a segment of the consumer market that meets the following criteria: (1) adult, post-
baccalaureate, 25-40 years old; (2) active/ involved; (3) caring about relationships (friends & family); (4) non-
professional, sub-standard skills in photography; (5) high interest in capturing images of life (freeze in time) and sharing
those images in digital or printed form.
Positioning
Kodak‘s marketing decisions (explained below) imply the following positioning statement: Kodak is preferred by
adults who are active, busy and care about meaningful relationships and want to encapsulate and share important
moments in their lives, because Kodak’s products enable them to capture, share, display, and store pictures and create
keepsakes, with more ease than competitors like Canon, Nikon, and Fujifilm.
1 Risk premium over government bonds: 13.0% - 5.6% = 7.4%
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Product
Kodak fails to offer clear, distinguishing benefits to consumers. The company attempts to position itself as a
provider of ‗user-friendly‘ products, typically offering products whose names include the word ‗easy‘. However, some of
Kodak‘s product attributes detract from the credibility of this position (Exhibit 2). Other than a long battery life, the
Kodak EasyShare M1033 digital camera features few differentiating attributes that appeal to the user-friendly consumer.
The Kodak EasyShare 5300 printer has a cumbersome interface and PC Loader tray that lacks built-in networking
capability. Kodak‘s ‗user-friendly‘ position is undermined with products that do not deliver the promised benefit.
Kodak develops products quickly due to its competitive environment. A comprehensive program designed to
include all desirable features is nearly impossible due to the speed at which the industry evolves.
Product types face different risk scenarios depending on their newness to the company and their newness to the
market. Digital cameras are familiar to the market and to Kodak. Thus, a line extension of Kodak‘s digital cameras
creates a risk of cannibalization and a lack of incremental sales. Kodak‘s new approach to printers, with higher upfront
costs and lower ink costs, presents different risks. The product type is new to the market and new to the company,
representing a new to the world concept. Thus, the product introduction is at risk of a lack of company-market fit.
Price
Using the economic pricing model (Exhibit 5), a firm strives to deliver products that demand a price premium
over its competitors. Based on this, we compared the pricing of Kodak‘s core consumer products (digital cameras and
inkjet printers), and its secondary consumer products (digital picture frames and Kodak Gallery), to the pricing of its
direct competitors in each category. In the compact digital camera segment, Kodak‘s products are generally priced below
the products of its most direct competitors of Canon, Nikon, and Fujifilm. For example, Kodak cameras sell in the range
of $80 to $160, while cameras offered by the competitors sell in the range of $110 to $500 (Consumers Union of U.S.,
2009). This price differential implies that Kodak is suffering from negative price differentiation. While a lower price
may offer the benefit of capturing a large portion of the price sensitive consumer, we believe that the lower price signals
lower quality to the consumer, when in actuality Kodak‘s cameras deliver comparable quality to that of its competitors.
According to ConsumerReports.org, Kodak holds four of the top twenty-six spots in the point and shoot digital camera
category, only behind Canon, which dominates the rankings with nine of the top spots—Fujifilm has two cameras ranked
in the top twenty-six, while Nikon has zero (Consumers Union of U.S., 2009). As a result, we believe that there is an
opportunity for Kodak to raise its prices in this segment. The other consumer products do not suffer from negative price
10
differentiation, and thus we do not believe an opportunity exists to change the pricing of these products (see Exhibit 6 for
further discussion on pricing of printers, digital frames, and Kodak Gallery products).
Placement
Overall, Kodak‘s placement strategy is similar to that of its competitors, in each of the main consumer product
categories. Digital cameras, inkjet printers, and digital picture frames, are typically sold through each company‘s website,
and through all major retailers such as Best Buy, Target, and Wal-Mart, both in stores and online. The photo storage
products are all offered exclusively online. Kodak‘s placement employs wide market coverage because its products are
easily accessible to all consumers. It is difficult for Kodak to differentiate itself within the placement component of the
marketing framework; however, it is important that it monitors the retailers to ensure both consistency across channels
and alignment of objectives between itself and the retailers.
Promotion
Understanding the consumer
Kodak‘s target consumers have lower levels of expertise than an amateur photographer. They are typically more
concerned about the moments captured in pictures and video rather than the art or technical skills required to do so. These
consumers will likely look to an expert (or perceived expert) in the field of photography for advice if any questions arise.
Thus, the level of involvement of Kodak‘s consumer tends to be low. While in some cases, consumers may do some
research to learn about the product they‘re seeking, this type of research is typically shallow in technicalities or details.
Once these consumers have learned what brands are reliable, where the best deals are, and how to obtain the product, they
are ready to purchase. This is when Kodak must be ready to sell.
Marketing objectives
Increased sales is the ultimate marketing objective for Kodak. At the same time, Kodak‘s promotional strategy
seems to have more specific goals depending on where the consumer is within the buying process. Prior to purchasing,
Kodak wants to represent ‗peace of mind‘, fun, and overall inspiration (Exhibit 3, figure 8). The following historic tag-
lines are indicative of such intentions: ―you press the button, we do the rest‖ in 1888 (Kodak, 2009), ―the Kodak
moment‖, ―Share Moments, Share Life‖ in 2001, and its most recent campaign ―It‘s time to smile‖ (Exhibit 3), which will
run for at least one year. These campaigns fit Kodak‘s aim to offer an easy way for consumers to capture the best
moments of their lives. Kodak also appeals to creative consumers who are interested in creating picture books, cards, t-
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shirts, and the like. These additional, creative options entice the consumer to invest more in Kodak products (Exhibit 3,
figure 3). Hence, after the first purchase, Kodak‘s goal is to create a repeat customer.
Reseller Analysis
The availability of products is vital to Kodak‘s success. Therefore, Kodak must ensure the consumer is directly
connected to preferred retailers whenever they are ready to buy. Unfortunately, that is not always the case in Kodak‘s
current marketing campaign. While Kodak is improving its presence amongst consumers by using several digital
initiatives, it is not always clear what is the best way to obtain the products. There is not always a link or message that
directs consumers to retailers Kodak prefers. Consequently, consumers interested in purchasing Kodak products may find
inconsistent messages while searching for a channel (e.g. prices far lower than Kodak recommends, Exhibit 3, fig. 9).
Marketing Communications
Kodak‘s marketing communications today are focused on triggering emotions and presenting an argument in
favor of some of its product attributes. The company‘s latest campaign, ―It‘s time to smile,‖ stems from the consumer
insight that today‘s work-life balance and the economic situation have negatively impacted relationships (Exhibit 3); even
though, consumers perceive it is easier to connect with friends and family today than it was 5 years ago (thanks to e-mail,
cell phones, and social networks) (Kodak, 2009). Kodak seeks to connect with the consumer at an emotional level and
encourage them to smile and make others smile – all while capturing and sharing their newfound happy moments with
Kodak products. However, the company fails to deliver a clear and differentiating promise that resonates with a
meaningful number of consumers.
Even though Kodak‘s new integrated marketing campaign is present in all major social media channels
(Facebook, Twitter, YouTube) the company‘s number of followers is significantly lower when compared with those of
competitors and other successful brands. On Facebook, as of December 12, 2009, Kodak has 47,342 fans, while Canon
and Nikon have 119,165 and 117,574 respectively. The #1 brand on Facebook, Coca-Cola, dwarfs these numbers with
over four million fans. Kodak cannot afford to lose in the digital space as social media has the powerful effect of creating
communities of ever-growing fans who evangelize the brand – all at a relatively low and fixed cost.
Without fans, the success of the social media initiative is in danger. For example, assume aggressively that the
ideal Kodak consumer spends $200 per year for 20 years in a variety of products totaling $4,000. Also, assume Kodak‘s
contribution margin stays at nearly 25% so each customer is worth $1000 to the company. If an integrated digital
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campaign of the magnitude that Kodak is implementing costs nearly $10 million per year to maintain, the company will
need 10,000 of these consumers to break even (Charlene Li., 2008). At less than 50,000 fans, the conversion rate needed
(20%) is quite high, considering that Facebook claims a conversion rate of only 10% for its advertising (Facebook, 2009).
Even at a more aggressive conversion rate of 15%, Kodak needs much higher numbers to succeed and be profitable.
Currently Kodak does not utilize the services of a celebrity spokesperson. This reduces any risks of brand
confusion or poor representation, commonly associated with endorsements. However, Kodak is betting too much on the
strength of its brand alone, while competitors enlist the help of famous characters like Ashton Kutcher (Nikon), and Maria
Sharapova (Canon) to energize its brand.
Promotion Conclusion
Overall, there seems to be a lack of buzz, energy, top-of-mind awareness, or fuel behind the Kodak brand. The
current marketing campaigns are not driving the number of customers necessary to create the sense of community that
Kodak is expecting, nor generating the revenues the company needs to survive.
Recommendations Kodak fails to position itself as the indisputable solution between today‘s consumers and their need for
connection. Therefore, Kodak must focus on delivering a clearer message, a differentiating promise, and products that
meet such a promise. For example: Kodak is the premier provider of imaging solutions that bring your loved ones within
arm’s reach.
Additionally, Kodak‘s marketing campaign should present one path within the imaging process that allows the
consumer to process the company‘s offerings. For instance, prioritize marketing efforts according to the following process
(1 = highest priority): (1) take great pictures with Kodak digital cameras, (2) print quality pictures for less with Kodak
photo printers (3) store your pictures at the KodakGallery, where you can create unique keepsakes (4) display your
pictures in our industry-leading Kodak digital frames. Instead of overwhelming the consumer with all the options Kodak
has to offer, focusing the message on one product at a time can be more effective for Kodak‘s target consumer.
We feel that additional emphasis should be placed on digital cameras, with the other products—printers, frames,
and Kodak Gallery—supporting digital cameras as complementary products that round-out the digital imaging experience.
Kodak‘s 120-year history as the premier provider of photography products lends itself to this strategy of emphasizing
digital cameras. This focused strategy can be accomplished through changes in each of the components of the marketing
framework, while keeping in mind the desired positioning for Kodak‘s product-line.
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Because Kodak is targeting the novice photographer segment, it is important that its products incorporate easy-to-
use attributes and automatic features that deliver high-quality photos. Currently, Kodak‘s digital cameras compete well
on the number of functions offered yet do not necessarily differentiate themselves. The same holds true for the printer
category with complaints of complicated interfaces, cumbersome loader trays, and a lack of built-in networking
capabilities. Kodak should strive to simplify its products across its entire product line and further educate customers of
the easy-to-use features through its marketing campaign.
Kodak prices its camera products well below the products of its main competitors. On average, Kodak cameras
cost 31%, 132%, and 80% less than products of similar quality in the super-zoom, compact, and subcompact categories,
respectively (Exhibit 6) (Consumers Union of U.S., 2009). Kodak‘s products are consistently ranked comparably to those
of the competition. Thus, Kodak should demand similar prices for its products. Kodak should be able to increase its
prices by at least 20% on the competitively ranked cameras to signal quality to the consumer without decreasing volumes,
thus increasing profitability. This price increase will address the problem Kodak faces with poor gross margins in the
CDG segment, and lead this segment towards profitability in the future. Success with an increased pricing strategy is
dependent on Kodak effectively communicating the brand quality to the consumer.
Kodak is dependent on its resellers to increase awareness and educate the consumers about its products. Kodak
should work closely with its main retailers to encourage promotion of its digital product suite consisting of cameras,
printers, frames, and Kodak Gallery. Kodak must first educate the retail sales representatives on the features of its
products, namely the differentiating features that will focus on the ease-of-use theme. In addition, the products should be
placed strategically within the stores, to encourage bundling of the Kodak product-line.
In promotions, Kodak needs to improve the level of energy behind the Kodak brand. For this purpose, a celebrity
spokesperson could be highly effective. Because Kodak‘s consumer is relatively low involvement and the market is
already cluttered with many reasonable options (Canon, Nikon, Sony, Casio, etc.), a credible spokesperson should serve to
hold the consumer‘s hand and guide them to buy Kodak products.
The current advertising budget may need to be revised, but an increase is not automatically necessary. Kodak
should continue leveraging and improving its presence on the Internet through various digital initiatives.
Kodak implementing these recommendations will lead to increased sales and margins and ultimately allow the
company to regain its position as a world leader in its industry.
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Appendix
Exhibit 1 – Products Analysis
Digital Cameras
Key
Attributes
Kodak
EasyShare
M1033
Canon
Powershot
A1100 IS
Meaningfulness to
Market/Consumer
Point of
Differentiation
Price $140 $140 Consumers value quality
products at an affordable price
n/a
Mega
Pixels
10 12 Consumers value digital cameras
which capture quality images
Negative
Zoom 3x 4x Consumers value digital cameras
which capture quality images
Negative
Video Yes, with sound Yes, with
sound
Consumers value digital cameras
which capture quality video
n/a
Battery
Life
220 140 shots Longer battery life lowers cost
and adds convenience, creating
value for the consumer
Positive
Image
Stabilizer
Yes Yes Consumers value digital cameras
which capture quality images
n/a
Face
Detection
Yes Yes Consumers value digital cameras
which are easy to use
n/a
Wide
Angle
No No Consumers value digital cameras
which capture quality images
n/a
Manual
Controls
No No Consumers value digital cameras
which are easy to use
n/a
Manual
Focus
No No Consumers value digital cameras
which are easy to use
n/a
15
Printers
Key
Attributes
Kodak
EasyShare
5300
HP
Photosmart
C6180
Meaningfulness to
Market/Consumer
Point of
Differentiation
Price $199.99 300 Consumers value printers which
are affordable
Positive
Cheaper
Ink
$9.99 for black,
$14.99 for
color
Presently,
ink costs
double or
more;
newly
introduced
ink costs
$14.99 for
black,
$17.99 for
color
Consumers value affordable
printer ink
Positive
Printing
Speed
Marginally
Faster
Consumers value fast printers Negative
Built in
Networking
No Yes Consumers value printers which
are easy to use
Negative
User
Interface
Better Consumers value printers which
are easy to use
Negative
Paper
printing
quality
Consumers value high quality
printers
n/a
Photo
printing
quality
newer photos
better
older
photos
better
Consumers value high quality
printers
n/a
Hardware-
paper tray
worse Consumers value printers which
are easy to use
Negative
16
Digital Picture Frames
Products Compared: Kodak Easyshare 10‖ W1020 Wireless Digital Frame vs. Sony 10.2‖ Widescreen LCD Digital Frame
* 2009 assumptions are based on results through Q3 2009 with a seasonality uptick for the fourth quarter.
Key cash flow assumptions stated for segments below. Note that these are pro forma numbers and there might be immaterial differences with the aggregated
segments due to slightly different treatment of ―Other‖ income and expense items.
35
Exhibit 13 – CDG Pro Forma Financial Statements Consumer Digital Imaging Group (CDG) - Continuing Operations
Exhibit 16 – Segment Valuations and Key Assumptions
Business Segment CDG FPEG GCG Combined
Long-term growth rate 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 1.50%
Reasoning
Grows slightly less than overall economy. Reflects transition to digital
products and increased adoption of
cell phones as primary cameras.
Traditional business slowly being replaced by digital filming
techniques. Kodak is involved in these
business lines because they make sensors for cameras, but long-term we
do not believe there will be any
growth in this business.
There will always be a need for commercial printing, but the business
should grow at a slower rate than the
overall economy, which we are assuming to grow at a long-term rate
of 3%
Weighted average based on current assets.
Total Shares Outstanding for EK 268.19 268.19 268.19 268.19
Scenario 1 - No restructuring, gross debt
WACC (levered) 15.8% 12.5% 12.8% 13.5%
Value (148.0) 1,508.1 952.2 2,312.3
Value per Share ($0.55) $5.62 $3.55 $8.62
Scenario 2 - No restructuring, net debt
WACC (levered) 17.7% 14.0% 14.4% 15.1%
Value (149.9) 1,392.4 847.7 2,090.2
Value per Share ($0.56) $5.19 $3.16 $7.79
Scenario 3 - Restructuring, gross debt
WACC (levered) 15.8% 12.5% 12.8% 13.5%
Value (324.9) 1,265.9 649.2 1,590.2
Value per Share ($1.21) $4.72 $2.42 $5.93
Scenario 4 - Restructuring, net debt
WACC (levered) 17.7% 14.0% 14.4% 15.1%
Value (312.5) 1,167.3 571.7 1,426.5
Value per Share ($1.17) $4.35 $2.13 $5.32
Scenario 5 - Management Guidance WACC
WACC (levered) 23.0% 18.2% 18.7% 19.6%
Value (293.8) 959.2 423.0 1,088.4
Value per Share ($1.10) $3.58 $1.58 $4.06
A5 stock valuation
39
Exhibit 17 – Regression Analysis of Traditional Sales Lines
We performed a regression analysis of Kodak using data on magazine and newspaper circulation, internet users, and GDP. We were not able to generate any
meaningful regression results by looking at individual segments because of Kodak‘s continuous reorganizations. The data sets were chosen because they show
clear trends that can be projected forward and relate directly to Kodak‘s customers, except for internet users, which we picked as a general proxy for the transition
from traditional imaging and media to digital. People do not buy printers and digital cameras unless they have a computer.
(Magazine Publishers of America)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
s
Year
Magazines
Subscription
Single Copy
Total
40
(Newspaper Association of America)
(Newspaper Association of America)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1990 1995 2000 2005
U.S. Newspaper Circulation (000's)
900
902
904
906
908
910
912
914
916
918
920
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Total Newspapers
41
(Miniwatts Marketing Group)
The regression output shows that Newspapers, Circulation, and the natural log of Internet users are all significant predictors of Kodak‘s consolidated revenues.
Sales should roughly follow the following equation:
We performed multiple sensitivity analyses to give an idea of what the company is worth under different assumptions. The first one looks at the WACC sensitivity
with and without estimated restructuring charges reflected in free cash flows. Diluted Values reflect complete conversion of KKR warrants and convertible debt
even though effective strike prices are $5.50 and $7.41, respectively.