NON-ROAD MOBILE ENGINE AND AFTERTREATMENT FORECAST PROVIDING THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE INSIGHT AND ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL NON-ROAD MOBILE MACHINERY POWERTRAIN SECTOR www.kgpauto.com In collaboration with Knibb Gormezano & Partners International Management & Technology Consultants Years Issue 2
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Knibb, Gormezano and Partners (KGP) provides consultancy services to the automotive and related industries worldwide. Since our foundation in 1988 we have helped over 500 companies worldwide grow and globalise. Our extensive global network is constantly being expanded to meet our customers requirements.
Agricultural Machinery Market Outlook ............................................................ 11
Latin America ................................................................................................. 11 China .............................................................................................................. 11 EU & EFTA ....................................................................................................... 11 India ................................................................................................................ 12 Japan .............................................................................................................. 12 United States and Canada ............................................................................ 12 Central & Eastern Europe .............................................................................. 13
Construction, Quarrying and Mining Market Outlook ...................................... 14
Latin America ................................................................................................. 14 China .............................................................................................................. 14 EU & EFTA ....................................................................................................... 15 India ................................................................................................................ 15 Japan .............................................................................................................. 16 United States and Canada ............................................................................ 16 Central & Eastern Europe .............................................................................. 16
Legislative Outlook ................................................................................................ 17
Stage V Transitional Engines – Impact and Opportunities ............................. 18
Information contained in this document has been obtained by Knibb, Gormezano & Partners from industry sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by our sources, Knibb Gormezano does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.
This report is licensed for internal use only and should not be transmitted to 3rd parties without permission of Knibb Gormezano and Partners.
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Acronyms AG – Agricultural Machinery ASC – Ammonia Slip Catalyst (Clean-Up-Catalyst) CE – Construction Equipment DOC – Diesel Oxidation Catalyst DPF – Diesel Particulate Filter EGR – Exhaust Gas Recirculation FIE - Fuel Injection Equipment MH - Materials Handling NRMM – Non-Road Mobile Machinery (Off-highway Equipment) SCR – Selective Catalytic Reduction
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Most importantly to the industry the Particulate Number limit, aimed at further reducing small particulates that have been proven to be harmful to health. When Stage IV was originally written it was considered that DPF would be required for all engines, but developments in combustion control meant that many European OEMs avoided fitment, citing various concerns over fuel economy, maintenance and durability. However DPF will now need to be fitted to all diesel engined equipment.
Engine Pre-Buy
For those OEMs with DPFs already, for example Caterpillar and John Deere, the engine and machine requirements will be minimal, however for those without, i.e. AGCO, CNH and JCB, engine changes will be mandatory, and in many cases will require machine changes.
Whilst engine production is closely synced to equipment production new emissions stages often drive distortions. Under the previous rules OEMs were able to use a so called ‘Flexibility’ scheme which allowed them to sell up to 40% of the previous five years sales volumes to previous emissions limits. Transition allows a lot shorter period for use of engines in new machines.
Based on KGP’s research and assumptions a scenario for production can be estimated, note that this is a preliminary estimate and volumes may increase/decrease depending on customer demand.
Figure 3 European Production by Compliance
KGP’s initial estimates suggest 120,000 machines <56kW and >130kW will be built with Stage IV transition engines plus 10,000 at Stage IIIB, in 2019,
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Production by Compliance Estimates (000s)
<= IIIA IIIB IV V
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7. Brazil is the only country in Latin America that has NRMM legislation, Argentina and Chile both using and producing machinery Tier 2 or lower. Brazilian legislation was introduced in 2011, called Proconve Mar-1 and will begin enforcement in 2015, it is equivalent to Tier 3 legislation.
8. Proconve Mar-1 is a tiered approach, with construction equipment and agricultural machinery having different enforcement timings, as well as power ratings having an effect on enforcement timing. The table below outlines differences between the two sectors.
9. Russia was supposed to implement Tier 3 equivalent legislation for agricultural machinery in 2014, however this was put back to 2017. However, again legislative enforcement has failed to materialise this year either. They have now postponed this legislation again.
10. Tier 4i production continues to grow as the developing markets shift some of their Tier 3 production to high regulations, some of the nonregulated markets will pick up some Tier 3 production towards the end of the forecast period.
11. Tier 4 production starts to tail off 2020 onwards as Stage V is introduced in Europe. It was expected that this would be followed closely by Tier 5 being introduced in North America, but this seems unlikely with the current EPA budget cuts.
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5. India – Traditionally a relatively weak market for dedicated construction equipment, much of the equipment bought in India can cross-over to agriculture, backhoe loader, midi excavators, telehandlers. Economic growth very strong, and the new government is investing substantially, 2017 is expected to be up around 8% on 2016.
Figure 19 Construction Equipment Production by Region 2013-2023 (000s)
Source: KGP Non-Road Mobile Machinery Q2 2017 Engine Forecast
Asia Pacific Other C & E
Europe
China
EU & EFTA India
Japan
Latin America
US & Canada
2016Asia
Pacific Other C & E
Europe
China
EU & EFTA
India
Japan
Latin America
US & Canada
2013Asia
Pacific Other
C & E Europe
China
EU & EFTA
India
Japan
Latin America
US & Canada
2023
Further Reading
KGP is currently researching driveline trends in the Non-Road mobile machinery market, including supply chain and fuel efficiency developments. A focus will include trends for hybridisation and electrification below 56kW. For further information contact Mick Beeson [email protected]
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Isuzu's engines are widely used in construction applications, notably excavators, where it supplies several manufacturers. It also supplies into the Material Handling segment, particuarly to Chinese OEMs for export.
JCB Engine Range Figure 32 JCB Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment
Model Displacement Power (kW) Torque (Nm) SCR EGR DOC DPF Model Displacement Power (kW) Torque (Nm) SCR EGR DOC DPF Model Displacement SCR EGR DOC DPF444 4.4 55 375 - - - 430 3 37-55 TBA - - - 430 3 -
Power (P) kW New Models All Models† CO HC NOx PM Smoke %19 ≤ P < 37 2007.10 2008.09 5.0 1.0 6.0 0.40 4037 ≤ P < 56 2008.10 2009.09 5.0 0.7 4.0 0.30 3556 ≤ P < 75 2008.10 2010.09 5.0 0.7 4.0 0.25 3075 ≤ P < 130 2007.10 2008.09 5.0 0.4 3.6 0.20 25130 ≤ P < 560 2006.10 2008.09 3.5 0.4 3.6 0.17 25
Power (P) kW New Models All Models† CO HC NOx PM Smoke19 ≤ P < 37 2013.10 2015.09 5.0 0.7 4 0.03 2537 ≤ P < 56 2013.10 2014.11 5.0 0.7 4 0.025 25 * Proposed.56 ≤ P < 75 2012.10 2014.04 5.0 0.19 3.3 0.02 2556 ≤ P < 75 2016* - 5.0 0.19 0.4 0.02 2575 ≤ P < 130 2012.10 2013.11 5.0 0.19 3.3 0.02 25130 ≤ P < 560 2011.10 2013.04 3.5 0.19 3.3 0.02 2575 ≤ P < 130 2016* - 5.0 0.19 0.4 0.02 25130 ≤ P < 560 2015* - 3.5 0.19 0.4 0.02 25
MLIT 4
MLIT 2MLIT 2
MLTI 3
MLIT 1MLIT 1
MLIT 2MLIT 3
MLIT 4MLIT 3
MLIT 1MLIT 1MLIT 1
MLIT 3MLIT 2 MLIT 4MLIT 3MLIT 2
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Contacts
Knibb, Gormezano and Partners Contacts:
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About KGP
KGP is a global Automotive consultancy, founded in 1988. Contact us for global specialist automotive and related industry expertise including:
1. Market Intelligence 2. Technology Analysis 3. Non-Road Mobile Machinery 4. Commercial Vehicles 5. Light Vehicles 6. Electric and Hybrid Powertrains
Clients include many global OEMs, Tier One, Two, Three and other suppliers, as well as other industry stakeholders.
Other Reports - Annual Review
In addition to the Global Quarterly Executive Summary (this document), KGP also provides an annual review covering each of the regions listed in the Geographic Scope, as well as Mini Profiles of each of the major Global OEMs.
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About Off-Highway Research WORLD-CLASS CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT MARKET RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS FROM AROUND THE GLOBE
Off-Highway Research is a management consultancy specialising in the research and analysis of international construction, and agricultural equipment markets, and is the largest of its kind in the world. The consultancy was formed in 1981 as part of The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and is now privately owned.
Off-Highway Research offers a unique level of international research expertise to the construction, earthmoving, mining, industrial and agricultural equipment industries. This specialist capability, offered by offices in the UK, China, India, the USA and Japan is available through a combination of Subscription Services and Private Client Research. The company is staffed by industry specialists with a wide range of industry, language and consultancy skills, and is supported by a unique database of information.
Over the last five years, Off-Highway Research has worked for over 600 clients in 37 countries.
Regional services covering Europe, India and China Regional Databases: North America, Europe, Japan, China and India The Volume and Value Service Multi-Client Studies Private Client Research
The company offers a range of world-class services including:
Regional services covering Europe, India and China Regional Database Services The Volume and Value Service Multi-Client Studies Private Client Research
i Additional Supplementing Legislation (EU) 2017/654, 655 and 656 cover technical and general requirements, monitoring and administrative requirements respectively.