Klaus Friedrich & Andrea Schultz REGIONAL EFFECTS OF GERMAN INTERNAL EAST-WEST-MIGRATION AND THE PROBABILITY OF RETURN- MIGRATION 3rd INTERNATIONAL POPULATION.

Klaus Friedrich & Andrea Schultz

REGIONAL EFFECTS OF GERMAN

INTERNAL EAST-WEST-MIGRATION

AND THE PROBABILITY OF RETURN-

MIGRATION

3rd INTERNATIONAL POPULATION GEOGRAPHIES

CONFERENCE UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL

19-21 JUNE 2006

Klaus Friedrich & Andrea Schultz

• Decline in East Germany: poor economy, low GDP,

high unemployment rate

• Recent Problems: Demographic change, birth deficit,

demographic aging, shrinking cities

• In East Germany huge out-migration to West-

Germany

• 40 % of the current population loss is caused by out-

migtration to West-Germany

1. The context

2. Internal migra- tion streams

3. The Human Capital outflow

4. Networks and return migration

5. Resumée

Klaus Friedrich & Andrea Schultz

Netmigration from East to West Germany (incl. Berlin)

-200.000

-180.000

-160.000

-140.000

-120.000

-100.000

-80.000

-60.000

-40.000

-20.000

0

20.000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

under 18 18 - 25 25 - 30 30 - 50 50 - 65 65 and more

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, 2005

1. The context

2. Internal migra- tion streams

3. The Human Capital outflow

4. Networks and return migration

5. Resumée

Klaus Friedrich & Andrea Schultz

1. The context

2. Internal migra- tion streams

3. The Human Capital outflow

4. Networks and return migration

5. Resumée

East-West migration flows 2003

Klaus Friedrich & Andrea Schultz

1. The context

2. Internal migra- tion streams

3. The Human Capital outflow

4. Networks and return migration

5. ResuméeN: 1151

Educational levels of out-migrants and total population

7.0

28.243.9

39.6

59.2

42.7

13.424.6

10.4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

out-migrants total population young population (20 to 35)

others/nothing secondary modern school (8 years) secondary school (10 years) A-level (12 or 13 years) n

Klaus Friedrich & Andrea Schultz

Educational costs

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

secondarymodern pupil

w ithout vocationaltraining

secondary pupilw ith vocational

training

Student(university for

applied science)

Student(university)

e.g.: medicalstudent

Eu

ro

school education occupational education

1. The context

2. Internal migra- tion streams

3. The Human Capital outflow

4. Networks and return migration

5. Resumée

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, 2005

41.60055.000

79.680

130.396

257.982

Klaus Friedrich & Andrea Schultz

Occupational group in% Examples Agricultural occupations 1,0 farmers, gardners

Lower manual worker 7,6 building aids, drivers, painters, roofers, turners

Qualified manual occupations

11,0 fitters, mechanics, plumbers, carpenters, butchers, bakers

Technicians 8,7 land surveyor technician, electronic technicians, printers P

rod

uc

tio

n

Engineers 8,9 architects, civil engineers, electrical engineers, chemists, computer scientist

Lower services 7,7 cleaners, waiters, landladies, caretakers

Qualified services 5,5 soldiers, policemen, photographers, hairdressers

Semiprofessions 14,5 nurses, physiotherapists, pharmaceutical assistants, old people‘s nurses S

erv

ice

s

Professions 10,3 doctors, teachers, scientists, lawyers

Lower office employees 5,7 Salesman and sales assistances, telephonists (call center), simple secretaries

Qualified office employees 17,5 bank clerks, accounters, assistants, officials in charges

Ad

min

istr

ati

on

Manager 1,6 managing directors, factory managers, managers

Total 100

Klaus Friedrich & Andrea Schultz

1. The context

2. Internal migra- tion streams

3. The Human Capital outflow

4. Networks and return migration

5. Resumée

Possibility of return migration by origin

23,633,4 28,0

5,7 4,2

41,136,2

40,0

68,2

35,9

35,3 30,4 32,026,1

59,9

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

all born in LSA born in East Germany born in West Germany born in foreigncountries

most probable returnees possible returnees very improbable returnees

N: 1074Pearson Chi-Scare .000

Klaus Friedrich & Andrea Schultz

1. The context

2. Internal migra- tion streams

3. The Human Capital outflow

4. Networks and return migration

5. Resumée

Answers (multiple answers possible) Counts in %

Regional identity, “Heimat”memoriesIdentity with hometown or -region, family and friends , positive private memories, memories of former job and study

1253 63,5

Quality of life, social environmentbeautiful nature or landscape, friendly mentality, culture, good leisure-time facilities, good social conditions (e.g. care of children); good living conditions

255 12,9

Social environment, living conditions in a negative senseunfriendly people or racism, bad housing or architecture (e.g. Plattenbau), bad social environment, dirty towns

75 3,8

Politics and economics, rather negative tenorunemployment, bad economic conditions, old industries, bad policy, political and economic change, agenda for economic recovery “Aufbau Ost”

132 6,7

Regional characteristicscities or regions (e.g., Halle, Harz), signs or beautiful architecture, regional specialities (e.g. chocolates, yogurt), regional personalities (e.g. Luther), regional institutions (e.g. Martin Luther university)

166 8,4

Otherother negatively, other positively, ambivalent feelings, nothing/anything 92 4,7

N= 1091, Counts= 1973 100

Attachment to the area of origin

Male migrant to Bielefeld, age 37 (native East German):

“I have a very good memory of Halle. I found my student time was great. We had good conditions to study, and part of the lecturers was quite committed. […] I also find the special charm of the city verybeautiful. The town has its own mixture of a radical-socialist proletarian culture and then, due to its large University, some student atmosphere. That is an impressive mixture. There are beautiful contrasts. This I totally enjoyed. […]I have a very good friend who works in Halle at the University and she keeps telling me what happens and what it is like in Halle now.”

1. The context

2. Internal migra- tion streams

3. The Human Capital outflow

4. Networks and return migration

5. Resumée

Male migrant to Cologne, age 38 (formerly born in West Germany):

“The first subsidies we received on the condition that we found our enterprise in Halle. Therefore the guys could not come with me to Cologne. I am not an altruistic person or whatever you call this. I have not founded the company because East Germany should be supported or people should do something there. But I founded the company together with students, because these are my friends and you can make money through that. So I did it mainly for my benefit and I would like others to profit from it, Halle benefits from it and so do the guys. Due to this they got an employment and have an exciting time. If the company is successful, they can get rich, too. If not, in any case they will gain some good experience for their future.”

1. The context

2. Internal migra- tion streams

3. The Human Capital outflow

4. Networks and return migration

5. Resumée