The Charcoal Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa: A selected overview Klas Sander, PhD Senior Environmental Economist Environment & Natural Resources Global Practice, The World Bank Sustainable Tree-Based Bioenergy in Sub-Saharan Africa Conference ICRAF, Nairobi May 27, 2015
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Dar es Salaam 67 357 1,316 2,116 3,415 7,276 80 4.94% 5.17%
Wood Energy, Charcoal and Deforestation
Population and Forests
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Aggregated total population and forest cover for selected African countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique)
Population, total
Forest area (sq. km)
Source: WDI database
We sure have lost closed, natural forests, but… is it because of woodfuel use?
What does the loss of dense natural forest mean for woodfuels?
Charcoal and Forest Management
Attributability (multiple drivers of deforestation and forest degradation)
Deforestation => permanent land-use change
Charcoal production as “side-effect” of agricultural development, but not principle cause
Forest cover ≠ wood supply
Unreliable supply and demand data modeling?
A never materializing “woodfuel crisis”
Wood energy provides economic benefit => incentive to manage forests, not to cut down
“Deforestation / forest degradation ” versus “forest management regimes”
Charcoal use commonly associated with deforestation and forest degradation.
Issues for considerations:
Deforestation or Forest Management?
Original satellite image Complete classification of land
use classes for the same area
9 different land-uses (excl. water), 8 with variations of woody biomass
1 “very dense natural forest”, 6 variations of “degradation”
2 variations of deforestation conversion to agriculture
More Examples
We need:
Accurate growth and yield data for all forest types
We need to measure all woody biomass (outside forests AND <10cm dbh)
Deforestation / Degradation versus Forest Management
Deforestation Forest degradation Closed forest
The forest frontier is history (with a few exceptions) “Mosaic” forests
Forest management in a productive landscape:
Some call it “deforestation” – others “forest management systems”
For woodfuels, short-rotation is an optimal, high-yield targeted management systems (often through coppicing)
Often trees have dbh of 10cm or less not accounted for in forest inventory
Forest (Cover) versus Tree (Cover) – The Case of Haiti
Conventional anecdote: Only 2% of Haiti’s original forest cover remains
Then Churches et al. 2014 came and did the following analysis:
More Examples
Rwanda: Increase in satellite image resolution changed woodfuel supply-demand deficit modeling from 61% to 21% between 2006 and 2009 (Drigo et al. 2013)
Early assessments applying the criteria as defined by the CDM indicated extremely high fNRB, commonly ranging above 80% and 90% for most countries.
The most recent global assessment of fNRB commissioned by the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves, resulted in significantly lower estimates of NRB fractions now averaging 27%-34% (Bailis et al 2015).
Consequence:
Forest management in the landscape requires adapting data capture, analysis, and information management
Hypothesis:
If all trees were to be counted, may be there is no woodfuel deficit after all?
Probably not…
No doubt we have lost a lot of contiguous forest cover and forests have become more fragmented, but not because of woodfuel use
If so, it should have long turned into a supply “crisis”
Forest loss and fragmentation of forest ecosystems due to land-use change triggered by agriculture production extension (incl. livestock) and settlement extension
Some areas with highest “woodfuel crisis” projections have more people and more forest cover than before
Demand for wood products due to urbanization is exponential impacts should be much higher
Continued limited understanding of causes and drivers of land-use change (correlation ≠ causality)
But we don’t know !!!
To demystify the wood energy sector, debunk common misconceptions (or confirm them), and to make informed policy and investment decisions…
…we need data, data, data !!! (That nobody has)
Is there a Woodfuel Crisis (once again)?
So, there is no woodfuel crisis after all?
Or what?
Well…
While these guys do move from A to B…
… is it sustainable (economically, socially, and environmentally)?
Charcoal consumption will grow or remain at very high levels
“Alternative” sources of energy will increase in price
Accelerated electrification is needed, but will not replace charcoal use
Need to cut energy subsidies and to achieve cost recovery will continue
Climate change calls for enhanced forest management: mitigation and adaptation
$$$ needed for sustainable forest management
Why still urgency in Charcoal Sector Reforms?
Challenges to Sector Reforms
There are no real technical challenges!
Lack of leadership
Vested interests & political commitment
Governance
Forest rights & benefit sharing
Forest service delivery vs. command & control
Challenges to Charcoal Sector Reforms
Less Forests – More Trees
What we did not talk about
What I did not talk about today
Macro- and microeconomics of wood energy
Political economy, policy framework, and reform
Jobs and livelihoods
Fossil fuel subsidies and wood energy
Wood energy, climate change, and Green Growth
Charcoal, biomass, and power production
Health, gender, and charcoal
Charcoal, wood energy trade and (household) wood energy use in developed countries
Charcoal trade as a source of conflict financing
Technical considerations and best practices
What next?
Modern & Holistic Approach
Woodfuels deserve to be treated as any other commodity:
• Unnecessary degree of reservation and discomfort – especially in developing country context
• In many countries realities have caught up with aspirations
• Modernize policy framework
• Facilitate supply chain management enhancements
• Catalyze private sector investments, but no crowding out
Let’s Learn from other Sectors
Comparing basic need challenges and responses in two related sectors:
Food Security (Biomass) Energy Security
Facilitate trade Impose bans
Provide extension service Implement command and control forest governance
Educate farmers Charge bribes
Award best practices Throw people into jail
Engage in research Still don’t have a clue
Provide seeds Buy law enforcement equipment
Decentralize responsibilities to the field
Recentralize control in capitals and line ministries
… to be continued
A simple “Road Map”
1. Filling knowledge gap
2. Enhance policy dialogue, capacity building, and policy reforms
3. Facilitating cross-sectoral collaboration
4. Mobilizing Investments
… the usual stuff…
Action items:
Put all natural forests under conservation
Focus on planted forest / restoration / reforestation, etc.
Create forest service, not police
Modernize governance framework, collect revenues and reinvest