Klab oct 2013

Social Media & Browser WarsRussell Southwood

Balancing Act

www.balancingact-africa.com

@balancingactafr

The medium is the message - mobile as media

Radio TV

Newspap

ers

Mobile

Internet

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

GhanaLuanda

10-15% use to get news and info in last week.

Ghana Internet use:Watch/download videos (15%); Play games (14%); Visit Networking sites (15%)

Ghana mobile use: 44% did notUse SMS (illiteracy) Chad (26%Literacy)

Sources: Various

Weekly Media Reach

What is the nature of the mobile as medium?

Tablets (<1%)

$136-495

Smartphones (<1%-20%) >$100-400

Featurephones (10-20%) US$60-100

Basic phones (60-89%) $40-50

Now

Tablet (1-3%)

$100-300

Smartphones (3-20%) $70-

300

Featurephones (20-30%) 460-80

Basic phones (47-76%) $40-50

3-5 years time

Exc South Africa: 80% prediction

The Update: October 2013 Rwanda: c3% smartphones. Tablets below 20,000 Featurephones: 20-

30% Basic the rest. Kenya – Smartphones are now 8% of the market Future estimates:

Smartphones: 15-20%; Feature: 40-50% Basic: 35-40% No accurate figures on tablets: 200,000-400,000 The blurring line between smart and feature phones in both price and

features Safaricom to stop selling high-end feature phones Pricing in Kenya? Intel Yolo: US$125; Tecno N3: US$92; Huawei Ideos:

US$80-100; Nokia Lumia 520: US$193 Next step down: US$60-70?? Blackberry? iOS?

ZTE smartphone in Liberia: US$89 Reality check: Liberia has 6-8,000 data subscribers

Country Aug-10 Apr-11 Oct-11Dec-11 May-12 Jun-12 Oct-12

South Africa 3.1 million 3.8 million 4.4 million 4.8 million 4.7 million 4.96 million 6.5 million

Nigeria 1.7 million 2.9 million 3.8 million 4.3 million 4.6 million 5.86 million 6.7 million

Kenya 864,760 1.03 million 1.3 million1.29 million 1.39 million 1.4 million 1.97 million

Ghana 621,000 906,540 1 million1.14 million 1.24 million 1.28 million 1.67 million

Senegal 299,340 447,840 578 880620,260 660,080 665,880 678,420

Uganda 196,000 280,600 330,780346,980 206,100 414,260 532,920

Tanzania 141,580 259,120 352,000414,540 497,940 518,460 676,420

Botswana 86,060 112,180 138,140167,180 218,100 223,660 286,740

Angola 63,860 112,180 277,640322,300 421,960 433,520 597,460

Zambia 56,640 117,520 157,760177,820 228,940 235,700 320,280

Malawi 46,660 79,040 95,820112,100 134,700 139,540 209,300

Namibia 15,100 127,260 123,820134,149 84,100 172,400 231,720

Sierra Leone 8,780 34,100 44,76048,520 57,080 58,040 73,680

Facebook growth 2010-2012)

Other social media Rwanda Facebook: c200,000 Top 5 brands: MTN Rwanda:

13,313; Rwanda (11,723); Rwanda Clothing (5,020); Equity Bank (2,906) Airtel RW (2,833)

Mxit – 10 million plus in South Africa but relatively small elsewhere in Africa. Link to low-end Blackberry IMS

Twitter user numbers hard to come by: South Africa, 1 m+; Kenya 150,000+

Portland Comms: South Africa (5 million tweets); Kenya (2.47 m tweets); Nigeria (1.65 m tweets). All tend to be “fast adopters”

57% use from mobile but 81% talk to friends Differences between Twitter and Facebook

Pattern of development elsewhere Satellite->fibre->cheaper wholesale prices->cheaper retail

prices->uptick in user numbers Study for NGO: Following countries: South Africa; UK, Brazil,

Thailand and India Huge increase in leading international social media followed

by international variants and localised versions Orkut.br (Brazil); hi5.com. Kapook.com (Thailand);

Orkut.co.in, Twitter look-alike (India). Use starts largely as “boy-stuff” but gender balance evens as

numbers increase

Africa’s alternative social media challengers Latvian social networking site: From nothing to 5 million (Feb

2012) users in Africa. 2.5 million in Nigeria; 250,000 in Ghana; 35,000 in Kenya; 30,000+ in Namibia

Aimed largely at basic phone users. Promoted using Fremium model and virtual currency. 90% Opera Mini users (=Nokia)

Yookos. Nigerian based in South Africa. Claims 6m users and is targeting 20 m

Use of socio-demographics and advertisers Mxit – Yet to break out of South Africa Misc topic based communities: Guinness VIP, football site

(1,000,000), majority in

New browser approaches biNu and Umuntu Media’s Mimiboard – very different ways of

getting to the same place

Overview

www.binu.com

Your Smartphone in the Cloud

Launched Jan 2011 3.1m Monthly Active Users

The Law of circles

Total users

Total users with right phone or OS

Total users of service or app

Databases and socio-demographics

Complex handset and browser landscape Feature phones will be a bigger part of the market (3,000+

different types) Unclear which brands will dominate (Tecno) The developers dilemma – do you develop for now or the

future Smartphone brands: Nokia? Android? iOS? Blackberry? SMS and basic phones – Big market but SMS limiting. Right

for non middle class audiences (eg iCows) Rise of local & independent browsers (2go, Mxit) Need for cross-platform browsers (eg biNu, Facebook)

The Wall – The deal and control of payment channel SMS – Obi Asika on music revenues and the split with mobile

operators in Nigeria http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lcJGRSTG8&feature=

plcp Walled garden vs Over-The-Top (80/20 vs 30/70) Pressure is slowing building for the current deal framework to

change – Mobile Internet is small but takes more affluent customers out of the walled garden

Payment platforms and operator control – This too will break down

The need for critical mass Need for critical mass (250,000-500,000 plus) Platform neutral/agnostic – Hard choice between fitting on 3-

5 platforms using apps or getting a space on a pre-existing platform with existing numbers (biNu; Nokia Life; Nokia Life+)

How to get critical mass? Developers usual response: Word of Mouth? Social media? App store presence? Slow to build, very few break through. No cost of marketing put in.

Free vs cost to buy. The Fremium compromise. Free builds the numbers

Numbers alone do not guarantee survival: Pesatalk; former Kenyan social media platform (300,000)

Potential business models Advertiser or sponsor pays Internet currently around

than 5% of tracked ad spend but does not inc SMS campaigns

Tipping point soon – case of African newspapers

Either existing media operators, people partnering with them or new independents

User pays Circles – Need to get

critical mass so free and low cost or

B2B – Higher price for niche services (eg cash collection/sales management)

Subscription – All you can use

Either way, need for critical mass (0.25 m plus), platform neutral

What do Africa’s key users want? Africa’s tech savvy generation grows up (18-35). Imagine them 3-

5 years older Stuff supplied by OTT companies: Facebook, Skype, Amazon,

Google, Twitter and Apple. Local or challenger variants: Mxit, 2go, biNu and Eskimi. Video (music, film, sport), examples iROKO, Buni TV, etc; video

calling; network gaming; Newer example: Waabeh (15,000 streams without marketing)

What do Africa’s users need? Wide range of development-related needs: health, education;

agriculture; and small-scale businesses. Complex ecosystems and difficult cultural shifts A funded pilot and an award winning app may not go anywhere

but….it may be a winner.

See video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUxmsdTOFGI

Example 1: People deliver service – critical mass

Example 1: People deliver service – the importance of critical mass Uganda: 80% of population in agriculture. 70,000 registered

households. 5-6 per household = 0.25 m people. Aim: 1 m Community Knowledge Workers – The sales force. Business

in a box. They buy their smartphone. 800 in 20 districts. Financial incentives to “touch” farmers, recruit new farmers and do surveys

Call centre – Agronimists who can answer 80% of queries. Remainder logged and replied to.

Currently donor paid but could be Government or private company

Changing how Government works Could take on other tasks or be for something completely

different (eg health)

Example 2: Edutainment – Feature phones

See video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DArz6MBTqME

Example 2: Edutainment – Featurephones and social platforms Lack of a reading culture: Adaobi Tricia Nwabani (I do not

come to you by chance) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDIZf6h7oQc

Partnership between World Reader (also work with Kindles in schools) and social network platform for feature phones, biNu

biNu has 4.2 m users globally, 1 m in Africa Currently there are 0.5 m readers, 42% of whom are in

Nigeria, 10% Zimbabwe, 5% Ethiopia and Ghana. 90% 16-35 1000 books available. Everything from Caine prize winners

to romances. English, Twi, Kiswahili & Kinyarwanda.  Potential for fremium model?

Other examples Things just beginning to

happen Things not yet invented Online food delivery

(Turkey’s Yemeksepeti) Mobile newspaper Edutainment channel

(Mediae – The Knowledge Zone)

The School Workbook Live stream video (the

lecture, the performance) Augmented reality (tackling

issues of screen size differently)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lguOHIka7tk

Games: Danny Day and Maths & Afroes

LTE as the driver of change It will be the accelerator of data use. Already 5+ LTE

implementations but at least a dozen by end 2013. One does it, everybody has to do it. 2-4 year change cycle.

3G or 3G+ only looked good because all other offers were so bad. On-going problems with network congestion

Smile Communications in Uganda: Actual speed of 6 mbps Early indications of likely uses: Consumer video, video

conferencing (Skype), high-end graphic and video transfers Africa will play its part in solving the handset problem by

generating demand

What Other People Watch African Film Emerging social media

Emerging Online Digtal Advertising Emerging Technology

Balancing Act Consultancy and research Reports: Analogue to digital migration in Africa-Strategic

choices and current developments (Out soon) African Data Centre Markets (November 2013) 3nd edition of African Broadcast and Film Markets (Before end

of 2013)