Kingsport: Demographic and Economic Context Presented to the Kingsport Economic Summit November 4, 1999 Patrick L. Phillips Senior Vice President Economics.

Kingsport: Demographic and Economic Context

Presented to the Kingsport Economic Summit

November 4, 1999

Patrick L. Phillips

Senior Vice President

Economics Research Associates

Washington DC

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Key Demographic and Economic Factors

• Population

• Age

• Education

• Job Distribution and Growth

• Retail Sales

• “Lifestyles”

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities Summary of Key Issues

• Slow growth• Manufacturing dependent economy• Older population• Well-educated, but limited local

resources• Strong regional retail position likely to

erode

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities -Population Growth

• Both Kingsport and Bristol experienced a decline in population between 1990 and 1997.

• The population of Johnson City is expected to grow significantly between 1997 and 2002, while the populations of Kingsport and Bristol will increase only slightly.

• The population of Kingsport is growing at a significantly slower pace than the populations of the peer group communities, at one-fifth the state’s rate of growth.

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group Communities -Population Growth

POPULATION CHANGE, 1990-1997/1997-2002

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Kingsport Johnson City Bristol, TN/VA

1990-1997

1997-2002

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesPopulation Growth

POPULATION CHANGE, 1990-1997/1997-2002

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Kingsport Columbia Morristown Murfreesboro Cleveland Jackson Tennessee

1990-1997

1997-2002

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesAge

• The population of Kingsport is older, with a median age of 42.3 years.

• Over 21 percent of the population is over the age of 65, compared to 13 percent for the state as a whole.


MEDIAN AGE, 1997

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43



MEDIAN AGE, 1997

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45



PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION OVER THE AGE OF 65

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%



PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION OVER THE AGE OF 65

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%


The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEducation

• The population of Kingsport is relatively well educated.

• Nearly 19 percent of the population has earned a college degree or above, compared to less than 14 percent for the state as a whole.


PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION WITH A COLLEGE DEGREE OR ABOVE

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%



PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION WITH COLLEGE DEGREE OR ABOVE

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%


The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesEmployment

• Nearly 40 percent of Kingsport’s workforce is employed in manufacturing.


EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY SIC CATEGORY, PERCENT OF TOTAL, 1997

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Mini

ng/C

onstr

uctio

n

Man

ufactu

ring

TCU

Who

lesale

Retai

lFIR

E

Servic

es

Public

Sec

tor

Kingsport

Johnson City

Bristol, TN/VA


EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY SIC CATEGORY, PERCENT OF TOTAL, 1997

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Mini

ng/C

onstr

uctio

n

Man

ufactu

ring

TCU

Who

lesale

Retai

lFIR

E

Servic

es

Public

Sec

tor

Kingsport

Columbia

Morristown

Murfreesboro

Cleveland

Jackson

Tennessee

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesRetail Sales

• Kingsport enjoys relatively high retail sales per capita.

• In 1997, retail sales per capita in Kingsport was nearly $22,000, or twice the retail sales per capita for the state as a whole.

• General merchandise represents nearly 25 percent of retail sales in Kingsport.

• “Median location” has shifted--will Kingsport’s position fade?


RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA, 1997

$16,000

$17,000

$18,000

$19,000

$20,000

$21,000

$22,000

$23,000



RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA, 1997

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000



RETAIL SALES DISTRIBUTION, PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES, 1997

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Bldg M

at'rl/

Garde

n Sup

.

Gener

al M

erch

.

Food

Store

s

Auto/G

as

Appar

el/Acc

esso

ry

Furnit

ure/

Furnis

hings

Eating

/Drin

king

Misc

.

Kingsport

Johnson City

Bristol, TN/VA


RETAIL SALES DISTRIBUTION, PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES, 1997

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Bldg M

at'rl/

Garde

n Sup

.

Gener

al M

erch

.

Food

Store

s

Auto/G

as

Appar

el/Acc

esso

ry

Furnit

ure/

Furnis

hings

Eating

/Drin

king

Misc

.

Kingsport

Columbia

Morristown

Murfreesboro

Cleveland

Jackson

Tennessee

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesLifestyles

• How does Kingsport appear on the “radar screen” of national companies?

• Fairly or not, “Factory and Farm Communities” represent over half of the households in Kingsport. The majority of these households are designated as “Rustbelt Neighborhoods.”


DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY LIFESTYLE CATEGORY

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Affluen

t Fam

ilies

Upsca

le Hou

seho

lds

Up & C

oming

Sing

les

Retire

men

t Styl

es

Youn

g M

obile

Adu

lts

City D

weller

s

Facto

ry & F

arm

Com

mun

ities

Downto

wn Res

iden

ts

Pe

rce

nt

Ho

use

ho

lds

Kingsport

Johnson City

Bristol, TN/VA

U.S.A.


DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY LIFESTYLE CATEGORY

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Affluent Families Retirement Styles Factory & FarmCommunities

Downtown Residents

Pe

rce

nt

Ho

use

ho

lds Kingsport

Columbia

Morristown

Murfreesboro

Cleveland

Jackson

U.S.A.


DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY LIFESTYLE CATEGORY (CONT.)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Upscale Households Up & Coming Singles Young Mobile Adults City Dwellers

Pe

rce

nt

Ho

use

ho

lds Kingsport

Columbia

Morristown

Murfreesboro

Cleveland

Jackson

U.S.A.

The Tri-Cities and Peer Group CommunitiesExamples of Economic “Repositioning”

• Chattanooga • Charleston• Augusta• Jacksonville• Binghamton, NY • Cleveland• Salt Lake City

Kingsport: Demographic and Economic Context Presented to the Kingsport Economic Summit November 4, 1999 Patrick L. Phillips Senior Vice President Economics.

Documents

population of kingsport

populations of kingsport

population of johnson

erodethe tricities

percent of total sales

tnvaretail sales distribution

tnvaemployment distribution

economic contextpresented