Kids in Welfare Care Are at Particular Risk of Offending

Foster Care & Youth Offending

Criminal Justice ForumWellington, February, 2009

Dave RobertsonClinical Director, Youth Horizons

Kids in Welfare Care Are at Particular Risk of Offending

• In NZ about 5,000 children and young people in C&P and YJ placements, over 95% are C&P, 1/3 under age of 6

• Maxwell et al (2004): C&P histories predicted later offending (0.24; p<.001)

• Australian welfare boys 13x and girls 35x more likely to enter juvenile justice system. Offending often known prior to entry into JJ system (54% by age 11-15) (Community Services Commission, 1996)

• U.S study: welfare boys 5x and girls 10x relative risk of later

incarceration (Jonson-Reid & Barth, 2000)

Risk Factors for Offending

Maltreatment

Marital Change

Parental Mental Health

UnemploymentCriminality

Supervision

Discipline

Parent-child Relationship

Disadvantaged Neighbourhoods

Learning Problems

School Attainment

Behaviour & Mental Health Problems

Substance Abuse

Foster Care Outcomes: The Big Picture

Homelessness

Mental HealthUnemployment/Poverty

Teenage pregnancy

Offending

• We know that foster care population are a high needs group who are at risk of poor life outcomes, including offending, despite regular foster care intervention

• Regular foster care is not an effective intervention for those a risk of youth offending

Foster Care-Specific Risk Factors Predictive of Later Offending

Behaviour Problems

Multiple Spells in/out CareMultiple Placements

Baseline PDR

Fitte

d Lo

g H

azar

d of

Pla

cem

ent D

isru

ptio

n

0 5 10 15 20

01

23

Youth Problem Behavior Drives Disruptions

After 6 behaviors, every additional behavior on the PDR increases the probability of disruption by 17 %

Project KEEP

Placement Stability Predictors

• Agency involvement

• Quality of care giving

• Treatment Foster Care

Probability of failed placement by condition

Project KEEP

MTFC-P

20.00

17.00

16.00

15.00

13.00

12.00

11.00

10.00

9.00

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

.00

TC # of pre KEEP study placements

0.70000

0.60000

0.50000

0.40000

0.30000

0.20000

0.10000

0.00000

Mea

nPre

dict

edpro

babi

lity

TXControlGROUP

MTFC-P

MTFC-P

20.00

17.00

16.00

15.00

13.00

12.00

11.00

10.00

9.00

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

.00

TC # of pre KEEP study placements

0.70000

0.60000

0.50000

0.40000

0.30000

0.20000

0.10000

0.00000

Mea

nPre

dict

edpro

babi

lity

TXControlGROUP

20.00

17.00

16.00

15.00

13.00

12.00

11.00

10.00

9.00

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

.00

TC # of pre KEEP study placements

0.70000

0.60000

0.50000

0.40000

0.30000

0.20000

0.10000

0.00000

Mea

nPre

dict

edpro

babi

lity

TXControlGROUP

MTFC-P

Successful Treatment FC Interventions

• MTFC

• MTFC-P

• Project Keep

-12%

-4%

-5%

-31%-25%

-37%

0%

-14%13%

-17%10%

Early Childhood Education for Disadvantaged Youth

Mentoring

Diversion with Services (vs. Regular Court)

Multi-Systemic Therapy

Functional Family Therapy

Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care

Intensive Probation (as alternative to incarceration)

Coordinated Services Scared Straight Type Programs

Other Family-Based Therapy Approaches

Juvenile Boot Camps

Lower Recidivism Higher Recidivism

The number in each bar is the "effect size" for each program, which approximates as percentage change in recidivism rates.

The length of each bar are 95% confidence intervals.

Type of Program

Figure 1: Effect on Criminal Recidivism for Different Types of Juvenile Offender Programs

Source: Meta-analysis conducted by theWashington State Institute for Public Policy, 2001http://www.wsipp.wa.gov/pub.asp?docid=01-05-1201

Implications

1. Comprehensive response addressing range of needs: mental health, behavioural, social, family, developmental, educational.

2. Foster care-specific red flags (externalising behaviour problems, multiple placements) should trigger intensive case monitoring and response:

3. Services need to actively minimise factors that contribute to placement disruption and promote factors that increase placement stability

4. Develop a range of foster care responses including treatment foster care for children and YP at risk of offending

Thank You

Treatment Foster Care Regular Foster Care

Treatment of child via managed therapeutic care relationship

Driven by behavioural problems/clinical Needs of young person; C&P issues may also be present

Intensively supported placement and placement delivery

High coordination with other sectors (e.g. education, mental health services)

Specialized, highly structured, time-limited and goal-oriented

Evidence based outcomes

Primarily care of child

Care often not highly integrated with other interventions

Primarily driven by care and protection issues in environment of child

Care environment is more autonomously delivered, less supervised, less structured, less supported

Generalized care and often open-ended