Continued in pg. 20 Political Violence Threatens Stability and Growth Ever since the highly questionable January parliamentary election and the subsequent Upazila elections, the law and order situation within Bangladesh has continued to deteriorate. Local and regional politi- cians now openly collaborate with the underworld elements, struggling for the control of government properties and resources; segments of law enforcement agencies have lost credibility due to their com- plicity with such activities; and there are talks of bringing back the ‘Black Law’ to stifle the media. This has already taken a negative toll on the economy, with 11 banks (3 state-owned banks, 4 private banks, and 4 foreign commercial banks) experiencing a negative lending growth, and according to BOI, foreign investment proposals have fallen by 56.5 percent from the first quarter to the Slowdown in Remittance The export of manpower is the primary source of foreign currency receipt for Bangladesh. The annual remittance (currently at USD 14.2 billion) ranks ahead of woven garments (USD 12.4 billion) and Knit- wear fabrics (USD 12.1 billion). Remittance has been playing a very significant role towards Bangla- desh’s sustainable economic development and poverty alleviation. Most of the expatriates from Bangla- desh are working in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Malaysia, UK, Kuwait, USA, Oman, or Singapore. Besides, new employment opportunities for Bangladeshi workers have also been created in Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, South Korea, Brunei, Mauritius, and Italy among others. Keystone Quarterly REVIEW Apr-Jun 2014 Contents Politics: the Command Post www.keystone-bsc.com Continued in pg. 17 Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh: Achievements and Challenges Pg. 1, 2-5, 21 Political violence threatens stability and growth Pg. 1, 20-21 Slowdown in Remittance Pg. 1, 17-19 Graduate Unemployment in Bangladesh Pg. 6-8, 22 Flower Production, Export, and Marketing in Bangladesh Pg. 9-10, 22 Economic Indicators Pg. 11-15 Energy Indicators Pg. 16-17 News Update Pg. 23 References and Contact Pg. 24 Economic Trends Lead Story Keystone is a premier consulting company that provides comprehensive solutions and intelligence for businesses and organizations. Volume 8 Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh: Achievements and Challenges At its inception, social safety net programs (SSNPs) in Bangladesh were of two types, cash or in-kind transfer to the poorest. The general de- velopment paradigm of recent years has recog- nized two key facts about poverty: i. the large role that vulnerability plays in defining and per- petuating poverty, and ii. the sustainable growth- risk-poverty nexus, whereby Continued in pg. 2 Note: Data sources are listed in page 24
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Continued in pg. 20
Political Violence Threatens Stability and Growth Ever since the highly questionable January parliamentary election and the subsequent Upazila elections,
the law and order situation within Bangladesh has continued to deteriorate. Local and regional politi-
cians now openly collaborate with the underworld elements, struggling for the control of government
properties and resources; segments of law enforcement agencies have lost credibility due to their com-
plicity with such activities; and there are talks of bringing back the ‘Black Law’ to stifle the media. This
has already taken a negative toll on the economy, with 11 banks (3 state-owned banks, 4 private banks,
and 4 foreign commercial banks) experiencing a negative lending growth, and according to BOI, foreign
investment proposals have fallen by 56.5 percent from the first quarter to the
Slowdown in Remittance The export of manpower is the primary source of foreign currency receipt for Bangladesh. The annual
remittance (currently at USD 14.2 billion) ranks ahead of woven garments (USD 12.4 billion) and Knit-
wear fabrics (USD 12.1 billion). Remittance has been playing a very significant role towards Bangla-
desh’s sustainable economic development and poverty alleviation. Most of the expatriates from Bangla-
desh are working in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Malaysia, UK, Kuwait, USA, Oman, or Singapore. Besides, new
employment opportunities for Bangladeshi workers have also been created in Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan,
South Korea, Brunei, Mauritius, and Italy among others.
Keystone Quarterly REVIEW
Apr-Jun 2014
Contents
Politics: the Command Post
www.keystone-bsc.com
Continued in pg. 17
Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh: Achievements and Challenges
Pg. 1, 2-5, 21
Political violence threatens stability and growth
Pg. 1, 20-21
Slowdown in Remittance Pg. 1, 17-19
Graduate Unemployment in Bangladesh Pg. 6-8, 22
Flower Production, Export, and Marketing in Bangladesh
Pg. 9-10, 22
Economic Indicators Pg. 11-15
Energy Indicators Pg. 16-17
News Update Pg. 23
References and Contact Pg. 24
Economic Trends
Lead Story
Keystone is a premier consulting company that provides comprehensive solutions and intelligence for businesses and organizations.
Volume 8
Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh: Achievements and Challenges At its inception, social safety net programs
(SSNPs) in Bangladesh were of two types, cash or
in-kind transfer to the poorest. The general de-
velopment paradigm of recent years has recog-
nized two key facts about poverty: i. the large
role that vulnerability plays in defining and per-
petuating poverty, and ii. the sustainable growth-
risk-poverty nexus, whereby Continued in pg. 2
Note: Data sources are listed in page 24
Page 2
Keystone Quarterly Review
Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh: Achievements and Challenges
natural and social risks pushes the poor
into deeper poverty which in turn hinders
economic progress and subsequent trickle
-down effects. By protecting vulnerable
households against livelihood and food
security risks, SSNPs create a favorable
path towards sustainable and pro-poor
growth, making them an essential tool in
fighting poverty.
Despite improvements in poverty situation over the past decade, incidence of poverty has remained
quite high in Bangladesh. Table I presents a snapshot of poverty condition in Bangladesh. HIES 2010
estimated that 31.5 percent households (roughly 50 million people) were living below upper poverty
line. Furthermore, about 56 percent of these poor (about 28 million people) have an income inadequate
to meet basic food and nutritional need. This is an improvement from the historically observed levels
(for example, poverty level was 57 percent in 1990 and 40 percent in 2005). SSNPs were essential in
this reduction in poverty level. In 2010, 24.6 percent (30.1 percent of rural and 9.4 percent of urban)
households received benefits from SSNPs whereas in 2005, this was only 13 percent. Although contribu-
tion of SSNP in fighting poverty has been commendable, there remain questions about efficacy in target-
ing of beneficiaries – whether or not benefits are reaching the poorest; quality of implementation; and
leakages.
Regulatory Framework of SSNP in Bangladesh
The Government of Bangladesh (GoB) implements a wide array of SSNPs. These programs address pov-
erty and vulnerability from a broad perspective, including education, health and nutrition, employment,
and disaster response programs targeted to the poor. At least 23 ministries are involved in planning and
implementation of SSNPs in Bangladesh with Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR)
being the most important. Department of Disaster Management (DDM) under MoDMR undertakes risk
reduction and humanitarian assistance programs. DDM aids MoDMR through knowledge creation, exe-
cution and co-ordination among stakeholders in formulation, review and execution of legislations, poli-
cies and guidelines relevant to safety net programs. MoDMR has delegated the tasks of its various pro-
grams to the Deputy Commissioner (DC), Upazila Nirbahi Officer (UNO), Project Implementation Officer
(PIO), Union Committees, Ward Committees, tag officers (officers from other departments/ministries,
appointed to monitor implementation in some of the program) and contractual field supervisors for
Employment Generation Program for the Poorest (EGPP).
Evolution of SSNPs in Bangladesh: 1950s onwards
SSNP in Bangladesh has been shaped by natural disasters and broad social context of the country. Histo-
ry of SSNPs in Bangladesh can be traced back to as early as 1950s with the Comilla model of integrated
rural development. These programs pursued goals of providing employment in slack seasons and of
rural infrastructural development. Food grains received as aid was used in most cases as remuneration
for the poor people working under the programs. Hence, these programs came to be known as Food for
Work (FFW) programs. Following the famine of 1974, FFWs were significantly scaled-up around the
country. However, following the dual flooding of 1987 and 1988, concerns were raised about the dis-
persed focus of FFW (and other similar programs). It was recognized that SSNPs have to be expanded to
cover particularly vulnerable groups.
Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) were started in early 1990s with the objective of promoting women
education. Following the 1998 flood, post-disaster food security programs such as VGF became an im-
portant part of the SSNP portfolio. Since the turn of the century, 5 major developments have taken place
in the safety net portfolio:
% of population living under upper poverty line
Average Monthly House-hold Income (BDT)
Year 2005 2010 2005 2010
National 40 31.5 7,203 11,480
Urban 28.4 21.3 10,463 16,477
Rural 43.8 35.2 6,096 9,648
Table I: Poverty and Income in Bangladesh: 2005-2010
Source: Household Income and Expenditure (HIES) Survey 2010, 2011
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Keystone Quarterly Review
Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh: Achievements and Challenges
Sharper focus on geographic targeting;
Greater focus on employment;
Attempts at structuring safety nets within an integrated and comprehensive framework;
Movement away from in-kind transfer towards cash transfer to program beneficiaries to prevent wastage and leakage;
An effort to integrate MIS in program management.
Overview of current SSNPs in Bangladesh
The government of Bangladesh plans to increase public
expenditure on SSNPs to 3 percent of the country’s
GDP by 2015. In FY 2012, a total of BDT 253.7 billion
has been allocated for social protection SSNPs in Bang-
ladesh, accounting for 11.4 percent of the total budget,
which was 1.4 percent of GDP, according to an ADB
estimate. This compares poorly with other South Asian
economies. Figure 1 compares Bangladesh`s social pro-
tection spending as a percentage of GDP with other
countries.
Total expenditure on SSNPs can be divided into 4 broad categories of SSNPs: i. employment generation
programs; ii. programs to cope with natural disasters and other shocks (emergency relief); iii. Transfers,
and iv. CCTs. Currently, there are about 98 specifically designed SSNPs in Bangladesh. Despite a large
number of programs, the top 5 programs implemented by MoDMR accounts for a third of the total allo-
cation.
SSNPs in Bangladesh are more prevalent in poorer districts. This is known as geographic targeting. Ta-
ble II shows the division-wise percentage of population receiving benefits from SSNPs and divisional
poverty level. Proportion of households receiving benefits from SSNP is highest in divisions with high
poverty headcount, such as Khulna (32.1 percent), Barishal (39.4 percent), and Rangpur (42.3 percent),
and lowest in divisions with low poverty headcount, such as Dhaka (30.5 percent) and Chittagong (26.2
percent).
In recent years, the rural-urban difference in coverage has widened, with greater focus being placed on
the rural regions. However, rapid urbanization is taking place in Bangladesh with an average urban
growth rate of 3.6 percent. 40 percent of the urban population live in slums and squatters and estimates
suggest that as many as 87 percent of urban population is working in the informal sector. If these trends
continue, SSNP coverage in urban areas may have to be scaled-up soon.
Figure1.: Share of GDP spent on social protection
Source: ADB, 2012
Figure2. Program Category-wise alloca-
tion in SSNP, FY 2011-12
Source: Bangladesh Ministry of Finance
Division Upper Poverty Line
Headcount (%)
% of Household Receiving Benefit
Overall Rural Urban
National 31.5 24.57 30.12 9.42
Barisal 39.4 34.43 37.20 20.66
Chittagong 26.2 19.99 24.50 7.44
Dhaka 30.5 18.87 27.80 5.99
Khulna 32.1 37.30 43.27 16.66
Rajshahi 29.7 20.66 22.85 10.17
Rangpur 42.3 33.65 35.11 23.68
Sylhet 28.1 23.51 26.06 10.50
Table II : Geographical Targeting SSNPs, Bangladesh
Source: BBS, 2011
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Keystone Quarterly Review
Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh: Achievements and Challenges
Greater attention has also been paid to seasonal vulnerability in recent years (assistance during monga
period, for example). However, implementation has been poor. For instance, EGPP is aimed to provide
employment for rural agricultural laborers during the lean period from October to December and from
March to May. However, MoDMR website reveals orders to complete implementation of EGPP by the
end of June, a period that coincides with the harvesting season. This defeats the primary purpose of the
program. In addition to assuring timely allocation and implementation, targeted coverage will have to
be extended, specifically to the southern coastal areas and haor areas that are exposed to extreme cli-
mate cycles and shocks.
Ground-level reality of SSNP implementation in Bangladesh
Operation manuals are rarely followed in implementing SSNPs. In some workfare programs, such as
such as EGPP, operation manual mandates miking and other publicity activities to inform the people
about the program and to invite applications from aspiring beneficiaries. In humanitarian assistance
and CCT programs, a list of potential beneficiaries is supposed to be maintained, and updated, regularly
at Union/Ward office level. However, beneficiaries are often selected at the discretion of the Ward Mem-
bers, Union Parishad Chairpersons (UPCs), and other implementing officers, often in exchange of mon-
ey. Ghost beneficiaries, overlapping coverage, complete capture of fund by elites, and depriving individu-
als or communities based on political affiliation is common. In case of workfare programs, it is also com-
mon to find projects selected on the basis of personal gain of elites and use of heavy machinery to com-
plete projects that contradicts the essence of workfare programs.
The beneficiary and project lists are sent from Union/Ward level administration to Upazila or District
level for verification purpose. Implementation guidelines are available for almost all of the major SSNPs
with detailed guidelines of monitoring and supervision needs. Common monitoring tools include site-
visits, maintaining muster-rolls, measurement books, et cetera. However, monitoring activities are spo-
radically done. Three issues including i. political pressure to overlook local elite’s misuse of funds, ii.
lack of manpower in relation to workload, and iii. misappropriation by implementing officials lead to
poor quality of monitoring and reporting. The situation is further exacerbated by the lack of appropriate
motor-bikes for monitoring purpose, or availability of computer and internet connection for record-
keeping, in many Upazila and Union Parishads. A lack of independent verification of reports received
from Upazila level is another big issue.
Payment mechanism requires changes as well. Payment in food-grains is unpopular for two reasons: i.
many workers/beneficiaries are unwilling to take food-grains as payments/benefits; they prefer cash,
and ii. the listed-price of the allocated food-grains are usually significantly higher than the market price;
this makes the task of project implementation committees very difficult. Another major concern is the
quality of the allocated food-grains. Leakages are also high for food-grain allocations. As a result, the
MoDMR has a made a move to move away from food-grain transfers to cash transfers. However, this too
is not without some concerns. With food-grain allocations, price fluctuation of staples can be stabilized
around the country. Discontinuation of food-grain allocation may lead to greater suffering of the poor-
est. Furthermore, leakages are high for cash transfers as well. Payment mechanisms are often not fol-
lowed for the following reasons:
It is argued that the necessary paperwork is significantly high and will deter poor people from the
programs if all requirements are to be met;
Sometimes, manipulation of process flow takes place for misappropriation of funds, through the use
of ghost workers, muster-roll manipulation, et cetera;
Sometimes, the manipulation of processes is forced. Work begins as soon as the allocation is made
centrally by MoDMR to Upazilas and by Upazilas to the Unions. However, delay in fund reaching the
banks forces the concerned implementation officers to find a way to pay the workers/beneficiaries.
Page 5
Keystone Quarterly Review
Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh: Achievements and Challenges
Furthermore, Mis-targeting, non-poor population receiving SSNP benefit, is common in Bangladesh. Ac-
cording to HIES (2010), safety net coverage has been extended to nearly 25 percent of population. How-
ever, an International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in 2013 has revealed that in case of some
SSNPs, about 60 percent of beneficiaries were not poverty-stricken. Personal or political affiliations,
rather than level of poverty, often become the underlying selection criterion at ground level. This im-
pedes the primary objectives of SSNPs.
Payment in cash, through banks, may still be the best option for SSNPs. However, timely allocation of
funds and strict monitoring and record-keeping has to be maintained at banks. Furthermore, to improve
targeting, a Bangladesh Poverty Database (BPD) may be developed.
Issues of SSNPs in Bangladesh
Benefit amount is another contentious issue. In monetary terms, average benefit received from SSNPs
was measured at BDT 483 per household at national level . Ahmed, Narayan, and Zaman (2009) found
that benefits from the public SSNPs are inadequate, arguing that, ‘…food benefits from VGF and usual ben-
efits from the cash programs are just 21 or 31 percent of the lower poverty line, respectively. Even in the
VGD program where wheat allocations are three times that of VGF program, the benefit package amounts
to only 62 percent of the lower poverty line’. Currently, the compensation provided in workfare programs
such as EGPP is lower than usual market rate, intended to promote self-selection of beneficiaries. Given
that majority (61 percent) of the households in Bangladesh has a single earner in the family, and with
4.5 members per family, on average in rural areas, the compensation translates to about BDT 880 a per-
son for 20 percent of families in rural areas and is well below the poverty line.
Transparency and accountability condition in SSNPs is unsatisfactory, with beneficiaries’, as well local
communities’, awareness of programs quite low. Usually, the whole of project and beneficiary selection
process is conducted with minimal transparency and publicity, with local community members having
little or no participation. A PPRC study found that signboards providing basic information about the
project were not found in many instances. Lack of community involvement hinders valuable inputs from
community members and at the same time creates a situation conducive for political capture of alloca-
tion and process.
Another major problem lies in the administrative structure of SSNPs. A large number of intermediaries
are involved in entire process of decision-making, monitoring, and reporting. Government officials often
complain about the lack of literacy among Ward Members which results in deviation from operation
manuals and project designs in workfare programs. In addition, it is also complained that the volume of
paper-work necessary to implement SSNPs is significantly high.
Lack of an independent complaints registration and redressal committee is another major issue, as the
complaints are usually about various program functionaries, who are also the complainees.
The Way Forward for SSNPs in Bangladesh
SSNPs have made valuable contribution towards reducing poverty and vulnerability of some of the most
economically disadvantaged population of the country. In addition, it has also contributed, as well as
benefited, from economic development of the country. However, further contribution is stunted with
administration, leakage, and targeting issues. Considering the country context, necessary reforms in
SSNP include:
Development of an integrated system of digitized poor list to improve targeting of beneficiaries;
Development and maintenance of Union development plans to improve project selection;
Continued in pg. 21
Note: Data sources are listed in page 24
Page 6
Keystone Quarterly Review
Despite shortage of skilled labor being cited as an impediment
towards economic growth of developing countries, paradoxically,
large portion of university graduates – presumably the most
skilled portion of labor force – are without jobs. A recent report by
Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has placed the graduate unem-
ployment rate of Bangladesh at 47 percent. Only Afghanistan (65
percent) has a higher graduate unemployment rate in South Asia.
Bangladesh is heading towards a major demographic transition. The percentage of population between
ages 15-64 rate has increased from 60.9 percent (2004) to 65.2 percent (2013) in a span of just 10
years. By 2020, the country is projected to have more than 31 million and 115 million people between
ages 15-24 and 15-64, respectively. This presents the country with a rare window-of-opportunity to
earn demographic dividends. High quality education and employment assurance will facilitate skill de-
velopment which would allow the country to mobilize its youth bulge to attain productive transfor-
mation necessary to join the league of Middle Income Countries (MICs).
Synopsis of Graduate Education in Bangladesh
Tertiary level enrollment rate in Bangladesh has been historically lower than its neighboring countries.
Figure 1 shows GDP per capita level and enrollment level in Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam in 2000 and
2011.
Against an income level of USD 356 per capita, Bangladesh had a tertiary enrollment rate of 5.43 percent
in 2000, almost half of India (9.5 percent) and Vietnam (9.3 percent). By 2011, tertiary enrollment rate
in Bangladesh increased to 13.5 percent, more than half of India and Vietnam, despite the Bangladesh’s
income being less than half of India and Vietnam. High enrollment rates made way to an unprecedented
level of graduate education in Bangladesh, with about 20 million students admitted in universities or
affiliated colleges. In 2012, 60 private
and 32 public universities offered
190,646 (78,702 remained unfilled) and
58,818 seats respectively. In addition to
these, the number of seats in open and
national universities was 629,475
(81,114 remained empty). More than
two-thirds of the seats were offered at
undergraduate level. Enrollment has
not been uniform across disciplines.
Figure 2 shows enrollment in different
discipline in the year 2012:
Cloud in the Horizon Graduate Unemployment in Bangladesh
Figure 1: Comparison of Income Level & Tertiary Enrollment in Bangladesh, India and Vietnam
Source: Data from World Bank & UNESCO
Figure 2: Discipline-wise Enrollment in Bangladesh, 2012
Source: University Grants Commission, 2012 Bangladesh
Page 7
Keystone Quarterly Review
Total number of enrolled students, at 2012, was highest in humanities and arts (642,095 enrolled stu-
dents), followed by business (512,111), and social science (470,379). By comparison, students enrolled
in medicine, science, engineering, and agriculture (combined) was only 287,021. Enrollment pattern
also varies among public, private, open, and national universities. 88 percent of all arts and humanities
students are enrolled in open and national universities whereas 80 percent enrolled students in private
universities are engineering, business, of law students.
Graduate Job Market in Bangladesh
Table I below shows major occupational classes` growth rates and 2010 shares.
Employment growth has been uneven. Overall
employment growth in 2005-10 was 3.2 percent.
Administrative and managerial positions record-
ed a 28.2 percent growth in 2005-10 periods
whereas clerical employment decreased. It is sur-
prising that students with masters degree make
up 8 percent of clerical jobs, pointing towards
possibility of underemployment of graduates as
well. The EIU recently undertook a study of high-
er education in South Asia on behalf of British
Council. Table II shows their estimated graduate
unemployment rate.
Graduate unemployment in Bangladesh is estimated at 47 percent. This is very high comparing with
neighboring countries such as India (33 percent), Pakistan (28 percent), and Sri Lanka (7.8 percent).
Several worrying and perplexing trend emerges from Labor Force Survey (LFS) 2010 data. The unem-
ployment rate among the people with masters degree (11.5 percent) is higher than those with bachelors
degree (0.43 percent). The unemployment rate among doctors and engineers is 14.7 percent (31 per-
cent for females, and 48 percent for rural females) – a tremendous waste of valuable human and finan-
cial resources, depriving the rural population of badly needed access to basic healthcare.
Explaining the Paradox
An unemployment rate among graduates begs the question of whether the country needs as many grad-
uates as it is producing. Yet, most sectoral analysis concludes skill-shortage to be a major impediment
towards growth. Sectors such as RMG, IT, healthcare, agro-processing, development, manufacturing, and
infrastructure development has been reported to face sever skill-shortages. The explanation is that the
country is not producing the right kind of graduates.
The disconnection between market needs and the curriculum of higher education institutions is a major
contributor to high levels of graduate unemployment and underemployment. There is historical
Graduate Unemployment in Bangladesh
Table I: Employment scenario for tertiary students
Occupation Overall
growth rate in % (2005-10)
Graduate level (2010)
Masters level (2010)
Engineering and Medical (2010)
Technical & Vocational
(2010)
Professional & technical 1.88 20.24 14.59 2.33 1.33
From April’14 to July’14, the percentage share of installed capacity of electricity generation has- Increased from 65 percent to 66 percent for gas based generation whereas it decreased from 19 per-
cent to 18 percent for HFO based generation. The percentage share of power generation from hydro, diesel, coal and power import remained un-
changed.
From April’14 to July’14, the percentage share of generation capacity - By IPPs, all rental power plants, APSCL and other decreased by 1 percent each Share of BPDB increased by 4 percent
Energy Indicators
Monthly Fuel Import (Million USD and % Change)
Month Crude Oil Petroleum Products
2013 2014 % Change 2013 2014 % Change
April ** 0 119.8 - 280.6 352 25.43
March ** 165 32.37 -80.4 305.3 572.4 87.50
February 0 78.43 - 245.4 288.31 17.48
January 79 86.36 9.4 476.9 171.19 -64.10
Gas and Coal Production
Gas (MMCM) Coal (M. Ton)
April’14 1957 25,392
March’14 2015 15,965
February’14 1819 119,891
Primary Energy
Government of Bangladesh has permitted Independent Power Producers (IPPs) to import HFO fuel without requiring No Objection Certificate (N-O-C) from BPC.
** Estimated as fresh LC opening in the following months
Power
Electricity Generation, Demand and Loadshed and No. of Plants in Operation
The plants in operation was the highest in April’13 and lowest in March’14. The peak demand decreased gradually from March-May, 2014. Maximum loadshed of 549 MW was
seen in April with no loadshedding in March.
Note: Data sources are listed in page 24
Page 17
Keystone Quarterly Review
Energy Indicators
SHS installation in April and June 2014 decreased significantly than that in 2013.
Biogas plant installation was higher in April-May 2014 than that in 2013.
Renewable Energy
Economic Trends
Flow of remittance in Bangladesh from FY2008-09 to FY2012-13
Table I shows that the flow of remittance into Bangla-
desh experienced a steady growth from the fiscal
year 2008-09 to fiscal year 2012-13. Remittance was
highest in FY2012-13 (USD 14.5 billion) and growth
rate was highest in FY2009-10 (13.4 percent). Lowest
remittance figure was observed in 2008-09 (USD 9.7
billion) and lowest growth rate was observed in 2010
-2011 (6.1 percent).
Monthly Trend in Remittance Growth,
FY2013-14
As illustrated in figure 1, from July 2013
to June 2014, there has been significant
remittance fluctuation. Overall, there has
been a growth of 2.2 percent. The worst
period for remittance was between July
and August 2013 (negative 18.6 percent
growth) followed by October to Novem-
ber 2013 (negative 13.8 percent growth).
Remittance Growth, despite Slowdown in Manpower Export
As illustrated in Figure 2, in the next page, the export of manpower was slightly above 850,000 workers
for 2007 and 2008. At present, the figure is half of that, at only 375,000. Manpower export rate has been
declining due to the heavy regulations implemented by the governments of manpower-importing coun-
tries. However, remittance has continued to grow due to increase in stock of migrant workers. Other
reasons behind increase in remittance:
Continued from pg. 1 Slowdown in Remittance
Total 3.12 million Solar Home Systems have been Installed to date.
Monthly Installation of Solar Home Systems (SHSs)
More than 35,304 Biogas Plants have been installed to date.
Monthly Installation of Biogas Plants
Year Remittance (in bil-
lion USD) Growth rate
(%)
2008-09 9.68
2009-10 10.98 13.43
2010-11 11.65 6.10
2011-12 12.84 10.21
2012-13 14.46 12.62
Table I: Yearly remittance inflow (for FY2008-09 to FY2012-
and regulations of the host countries) for the workers.
Identification of new destinations of manpower exports, such as Italy, Russia, Japan etc.
Recent Decline in Remittance
Remittance inflow, however, has dropped for the first time in several decades in the just concluded fis-
cal year. Remittance fell during FY2013-14 by 1.7 percent, from USD 14.5 billion to USD 14.4 billion.
Causes for Decline in Manpower Export and Remittance by Countries
Saudi Arab is the biggest market for Bangladesh’s manpower export, with at least 150,000 semi and
unskilled Bangladeshi workers working in the country, on average, over the last few years. The average
annual intake is less than 14,000 workers now. According to several analysts, regaining the Saudi mar-
ket can be the key to stopping the rapid decline of manpower export. However, even after several diplo-
matic efforts, satisfactory results have not been obtained.
UAE: Between 2007 and 2012, 250,000 Bangladeshi workers were imported annually by UAE. However, due
to fraudulent activities by some manpower exporting agencies, and lack of farsightedness by Bangladeshi gov-
ernment, manpower import from Bangladesh has stopped completely.
Kuwait: A ban imposed on import of manpower from Bangladesh still stands and all efforts to lift the
ban has been futile.
Malaysia imported almost 450,000 workers from Bangladesh between 2007 and 2008. However, due
to fraudulent activities by manpower exporting agencies, Malaysia has stopped its manpower import
from Bangladesh. Following several diplomatic efforts, Malaysia agreed to take 500,000 workers from
Bangladesh over a 5-year period.
Recent Trend in Remittance Inflow from Major Work Place Destinations
In figure 3, in the next page, a year-wise comparison between 2013 and 2014 shows that apart from for
Qatar and Oman, remittance inflow from all other countries have declined by a minimum of 10 percent.
Remittance from Saudi Arab and UAE has taken the largest hit. Reasons behind slowdown in remit-
tance:
Fall in manpower export to the traditional destinations, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait,
is the main reason behind the decline in remittances.
Due to the detrimental effect of Arab Spring, businesses in the region are, at the moment, conserva-
tive in their approach to hire temporary workers from developing countries.
Dispute between Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies (BAIRA) and the Min-
ister for Manpower Export (MoME) is taking its toll on the chances of prospective workers’ chances
Figure: 2 Yearly trends in manpower export (in thousands)
Source: The Daily Prothom Alo
Page 19
Keystone Quarterly Review
Slowdown in Remittance
of going abroad for work. BAIRA blames
the government of hindering the man-
power export growth, primarily due to
Bangladesh Embassy’s negligence in at-
testing visas.
Average earnings of Bangladeshi work-
ers have reduced due to overabundance
of sector-specific skilled workers from
previous years. Proliferation of workers
has put a downward pressure on overall
wage level.
According to the World Bank, with in-
creased unemployment and/or lower
wages, the propensity to save may have
decreased because of ratchet-effects on consumption. Conventionally, if income falls, then con-
sumption should fall proportionally. However the lagging-effect has blocked such decline.
Several countries such as Sri Lanka, Philippines, Indonesia, et cetera, are competing with Bangla-
desh in manpower export. The workers from the competing countries are trained prior to their em-
ployment abroad, improving their human-capital, and giving them an edge.
Implications of Diminished Remittance Inflow:
Rural infrastructure development will take a hit since at least 45 percent of the rural infrastruc-
tures are built with remittance currency.
A fall in remittance will lower foreign currency inflow, harming the foreign reserve and import vol-
ume. This may lead to inflation.
De-stabilization of exchange rate, unless export in other sectors, such as RMG, fisheries, etc., are
significantly improved.
Negative effect in propensity to consume may cause a chain-reaction in the supply-chain of the
economy, impacting both rural and urban development sectors.
What Can be Done?
The government can form a research bureau which will oversee various industrial sectors in sever-
al new markets. One vibrant example can be the market of Alberta, Canada: an oil rich state, suffer-
ing from skilled manpower shortage. The bureau can identify such markets and advise the govern-
ment.
Steps should be taken to stop illegal worker immigration.
Banks should streamline their processes further to enhance a proper inflow of remittance from the
existing worker pools.
BAIRA needs to actively work with the government to identify further potential weaknesses of the
sector.
GoB should aim to develop the skills of workers and take necessary measures to improve bilateral
relations with various manpower-importing countries in the world. The situation of UAE should not
be repeated.
Figure 3: Remittance amount by country (in million USD)
Source: BSS and Bangladesh Bank
Note: Data sources are listed in page 24
Page 20
Keystone Quarterly Review
Politics: The Command
second quarter of this calendar year.
On 3rd May, 7 people, including Chandan Kumar Sarkar, President of Narayanganj District Bar Associa-
tion, and Nazrul Islam, Ward Commissioner and a ruling AL leader were murdered. Nur Hossain, the
alleged mastermind behind the murders, has since fled to and been caught in India. Attention immedi-
ately shifted towards Shamim Osman, MP, who recruited Nur Hossain into AL. A phone conversation
between the two, taking place shortly after the killings, was also leaked. However, Shamim Osman is yet
to even be questioned by the police, with Additional Secretary Shahjahan Ali Mollah, the head of the
committee formed to investigate this case saying that Shamim Osman is not a person of any interest.
Father-in-law of deceased Nazrul Islam alleged that 3 RAB officials, Lt Col Tarek Sayeed Mohammad,
Major Arif Hossain, and Lt Commander MM Rana, involved in the killings (they were allegedly paid BDT
60 million for their participation) were simply going to be forced into retirement for their crime. The
Supreme Court (SC) issued a rare and exemplary written directive, from the bench comprising Justice
Mirza Haider Hossain and Justice Khurshid Alam Sarkar, ordering the police to arrest the three RAB offi-
cials. The PM did not take kindly to this interference in the matter by SC and was openly critical of the
SC directive during a press conference.
On 16th April, in Narayanganj, Abu Bakar Siddique, husband of environmental lawyer and human rights
activist, Syeda Rizwana Hossain, was abducted from his car. The abductors let him go unharmed two
days later. BNP Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, claimed that the same group that was behind
the disappearance of Ilias Ali and his driver in April, 2012 was behind the abduction of Abu Bakar Sid-
dique as well. Joint Secretary General Rizvi could not substantiate his claim, however, with any corrobo-
rative evidences when journalists asked him.
On 20th May, Ekramul Haque, Upazila Chairman of Feni, was shot in his car and his car was set on fire.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina immediately directed the law enforcement agencies to capture these ‘anti
-liberation elements and evil forces’, pointing towards rival BNP. BNP Acting Secretary General Mirza
Fakhrul, meanwhile, claimed that the government was trying to shift blame on BNP, on what was an in-
fighting issue between members of AL. All these claims were made on the same day of the killing, before
a full-scale investigation could be launched by the appropriate agencies to get to the root of the killings.
These two events seem to illustrate that the tendency of AL and BNP lie towards political blame-game
rather than finding the truth.
The brutal torture and murder of 17 year old Tanvir Muhammad Tawki, a promising A-level student
and son of a civil social activist, once again in Narayanganj, is another example of political violence.
Tawkee was tortured and murdered last year because of his father’s political activism, where he sup-
ported Dr. Selina Hayat Ivy, opposition of Shamim Osman in mayoral election. The criminals are yet to
be brought to justice.
In the midst of all these, there have been two bright spots for Bangladesh. The Hague verdict regarding
maritime territories allows Bangladesh to carry out oil and gas exploration in the area and harness ma-
rine resources. The fact that India too has accepted the decision points towards a new era of maritime
cooperation between the two countries. Similarly, the visit of Sushma Swaraj, Minister of External Af-
fairs of India, to Bangladesh, soon after election of Narendra Modi, may point towards greater bi-lateral
cooperation and undertakings between the two countries. But for growth and stability to get back on
track, internal issues need to be resolved first.
For Bangladesh to get back on the right side of functioning democracy and good governance, the follow-
ing are needed: repression of opposition political activists need to stop and the police, and other law
enforcement agencies, need to be freed up from political interference and not be used for suppressing of
Continued from pg. 1 Political Violence Threatens Stability and Growth
Page 21
Keystone Quarterly Review
opposition politicians. Furthermore, extra-judicial measures, such as ‘crossfire’ and ‘contract’ killings
need to be stopped. Moreover, there should be delineation of river banks and transparent procedure for
allocation of public resources, such as land, and sand from rivers. Notably, most of the political violence
have their roots in unfair competition over grabbing public resources.
Above all, the top-level political patronage of delinquents needs to stop. For example, the PM’s recent
support to the family of Shamim Osman, as he faces allegations of murder, is not befitting her status. Nur
Hossain has reportedly received backing from HT Imam, an adviser to the PM. Narayanganj dwellers are
of the belief that without such top-level backing, Nur Hossain could not have become so powerful. A Dai-
ly Star editorial, a local daily, was very critical of this, condemning the ‘…series of killings, abduction, and
robbery by criminals under the patronage of their political overlords’, calling the entire power-structure
as ‘mafia politics’. This practice of political patronage of criminals needs to be discontinued, if political
violence is to stop. Otherwise, achievements over the past decade and ambition of Bangladesh becoming
a pluralistic middle-income country is unlikely to be realized.
Politics: the Command Post
Note: Data sources are listed in page 24
A system of cross-and-check, whereby, evidence of work completed (before-and-after photos, for
example) will have to be submitted with all reports. Regular third-party verification may be a useful
tool as well. Use of MIS systems for record-keeping can improve this.
Timely allocation of funds and implementation of projects is critical in programs targeting a specific
time period (for example, lean periods).
Benefits paid to beneficiaries have to reflect basic cost of living.
The monitoring system is manpower-intensive; either a less manpower-intensive monitoring sys-
tem has to be developed or monitoring capacity of concerned units (Upazila Parishad, Union Pari-
shad, etc) has to be increased.
Emphasis has to be placed on raising public awareness about the SSNPs and encourage participa-
tory planning and development at the rural level.
Training and capacity development at ground level, including elected officials in charge of ground
level implementation, would increase quality of implementation.
Development of an independent, third-party complaint registration and redressal committee at the
Union level.
Complexity of the process-flow encourages deviation from the operation manuals. Tasks should be
simplified, paperwork reduced, and duplicitous tasks (for example, maintenance of both job-cards
and muster-roll for attendance keeping under EGPP) should be removed.
Multiplicity of programs should be reduced and clusters of similar programs brought under the
same umbrella. For example, FFW and Test Relief (TR) both targets development/maintenance of
rural infrastructure and price stability. The 2 programs can be merged.
Conclusion
Social protection is a basic human rights recognized by United Nation's Universal Declaration of Human
Rights (UDHR). Social protection is also a fundamental right guaranteed in the constitution of Bangla-
desh. SSNPs of Bangladesh have been instrumental in poverty and vulnerability reduction of the ‘poorest
of the poor’ in Bangladesh. However, with a national poverty level of 31.5 percent, there is still a long
road ahead.
Lead Story
Continued from pg. 1 Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh: Achievements and Chal-lenges
Page 22
Keystone Quarterly Review
Sectoral employment-demand forecast should be made available to students, educators, and adminis-
trators to facilitate better selection of majors, and offering of courses.
Robust regulation of private universities, to ensure quality of admission test, procedures, exams, and
graduates.
The government may look into international options such as international associations in providing
accreditation and other quality assurance mechanisms. Use of international accreditation has helped
Singapore and Malaysia in gaining international reputation in tertiary education.
Modern laboratories, scholarships, and good salary for researchers are necessary. This will prevent
brain-drain from Bangladesh and expose students to latest advancements in their respective fields.
Conclusion
Failure to absorb graduates in the job market will not only result in unproductive investment and re-
strict the scope of reaping the upcoming demographic dividend, but may also result in upheaval and
social disorder. Thus the government has to take necessary steps in increasing information in the mar-
ket, ensuring proper regulation with/without help of third party, and creating an enabling condition for
the country’s most talented to work.
Cloud in the Horizon
Continued from pg. 8 Graduate Unemployment in Bangladesh
Silver Lining Continued from pg. 10 Flower Production, Export, and Marketing in Bangladesh
Economic Factors: The margin for retailers and farmers can be further increased by minimizing cost of
production, better preservation, minimizing wastage, and maintaining lead time for export.
Government Policies and Incentives: A recent World Bank Technical Paper on horticulture in Kenya
said that a commercial horticulture sector needs government policies that provide an environment in
which the sector can thrive. The paper also argues that although no direct intervention is required, in-
vestment in infrastructures in rural areas such as water, health-services, and education can lead to a
significant growth in the industry. Government subsidies in fertilizers and floriculture training are two
leading factors that can transform the small base of floriculture industry of Bangladesh into a dominant
exporter (Rikken 2011).
Challenges Faced in Floriculture Industry of Bangladesh
Flowers in Bangladesh are cultivated in open spaces. However, for maximum yield and quality, the
cultivation should occur in a greenhouse environment.
Emphasis should be given on producing high-demand and value-driven flowers such as Hybrid Or-
chid Variety, Exotic Colored Roses, Carnations, Gerbera, Gladiolus, et cetera, that requires less water
and sunlight, making these varieties suitable for indoor maintenance.
Exports of flowers, a highly perishable product, are regularly hampered due to air-freight delay,
compromising quality. Flowers notably have a very short shelf-life.
Lack of farmer training and knowledge in managing the periods between the pre- and post-
cultivation periods have detrimental effects on quality of floral yields.
More robust techniques in packaging are needed to ensure that flowers for export are transported
in fresh state.
Conclusion
From a strategic perspective, floriculture industry of Bangladesh has massive growth potentials and can
one day compete with the leading flower exporters such as Netherlands, Kenya, Columbia, Ecuador and
Israel. However, a growth strategy must be set up by transformational leaders to make the industry a
dynamic and vibrant export sector of Bangladesh.
Note: Data sources are listed in page 24
Page 23
Keystone Quarterly Review
News Update Sector News Vibe
Agriculture Scientists have come up with a potato variety resistant to Late Blight disease,
virus, and drought that wreak havoc on potato production every year.
Banking
Bangladesh Bank raises reserve requirement for banks from 5.5 percent to 6
percent.
Commercial banks’ lending rates have gone down to a 3 year low due to poor
demand for money and a decline in their cost of funds, according to bankers.
Business
Stocks plunged 1.14 percent on June 8, the highest single day fall in June, as
investors were upset by a budgetary proposal that imposes a 3 percent tax on
their capital gain above BDT 1 million.
Economics
World Bank approves USD 60 million for VAT reforms; the number of active
registered VAT-payers to double in 5 years.
NBR’s tax receipts remain sluggish; growth rate slowest in 7 years
Education The Daily Star awards 1,639 students of O&A levels for their outstanding re-
sults; 64 students obtained world’s highest scores in different subjects
Energy
Bangladesh and China signed five deals, including one for building a 1,320
megawatt coal-based large power plant in Patuakhali.
Japan to invest USD 1.2 billion in Bangladesh priority sectors, including power
generation, in FY2015-16.
Environment
Gabkhan Channel, a vital river route, is losing its navigability
Rising sea level, an emerging threat to human security, may cause some deci-
sive impacts for the people of Bangladesh such as extreme salinity concentra-
tion in soil and water, damage of inhabitation and forests, fresh water crisis,
eroding beech and coastal land, acute health hazards, loss of fisheries and bio-
diversity etc.
Industry
Leather Industry hit record exports of USD 1 billion in the first 10 months of
FY2013-14
6 more RMG factories identified for shutdown due to structural flaws by 2
international inspectors
RMG Garment exports show resilience as shipments rise 16 percent in the last year
despite industrial disasters such as Rana Plaza collapse
Society
3 Rab officials have been forced into retirement for their alleged involvement
in the abduction and killing of 7 people in Narayanganj
MV Miraj-4 sank in the Meghna with 200 people on board; death toll reached
31.
Allocation for safety net and welfare schemes may rise 11 percent to BDT 138
billion in the upcoming budget, amounting to 5.5 percent of total expenditure
SI Jahidur Rahman arrested for his role in extortion, abduction, torture, and
custodial murder of trader Mahbubur Rahman Sujon. This is the second time
Jahidur Rahman has faced similar charges, last time in February, 2014 for the
murder of a 28 year old. He was not punished.
Sports
Bangladesh cricket in quandary as internal-politics in BCB cited as a reason behind all-rounder Shakib Al-Hasan’s suspension from the game for 6 months and all international competition till December 31, 2015.
Technology Skype co-founder Morten Lund says Bangladesh is the next tech hub.
Note: Data sources are listed in page 24
Page 24
Keystone Quarterly Review
References
Contact
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Keystone Business Support Company Ltd. Suite 6C-1, Building 2, House 5A, Baily Heights Road 94, Gulshan 2, Dhaka 1212 Phone: +88 02 8836305, +880 1780 372160 Fax: +88 02 9898074 Email: [email protected] Website: www.keystone-bsc.com
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Keystone Team
Contributors: Ahsan Senan; Mursalin, Ahmed Tarif; Mustafiz, Rubiya Binta; Sadeque, Sariya Syeda; Siddiqui, Shihab Reviewers: Choudhury, Liaquat Ali; Khan, M Fouzul Kabir; Shams, Khalid; Uddin, Mesbah