5/18/22 1 Keynote by Professor Lauri Ojala Turku School of Economics, Finland [email protected]Global Facilitation Partnership for Transportation and Trade International Federation for Freight Forwarders Associations How to increase the participation of transition economies in international trade The World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI) - One way to identify areas for action With some thoughts on challenges in Trade & Transport Facilitation (TTF) work UNECE, Committee on Trade Geneva, June 18, 2012 Turku School of Economics University of Turku, Finland
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Keynote by Professor Lauri Ojala Turku School of Economics , Finland [email protected]
UNECE, Committee on Trade Geneva , June 18, 2012. How to increase the participation of transition economies in international trade The World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI) - One way to identify areas for action With some thoughts on challenges in - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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April 22, 2023 1
Keynote by Professor Lauri OjalaTurku School of Economics, Finland
Upper Middle Income countries a “watershed”; you find them in all performance quintiles
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 8
Low inco
me
Lower middle
income
Upper middle
income
High inco
me non-O
ECD
High inco
me OECD
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Top quintileSecond quintileThird quintileFourth quintileBottom quintile
Perc
ent
LPI 2012 data
It is more how things are done thanwhat the formal regime is
Bottom quintile
(lowes
t perf
orman
ce)
Fourth quintile
(low perf
orman
ce)
Third quintile
(ave
rage p
erform
ance
)
Second quintile
(high perf
orman
ce)
Top quintile (h
ighest p
erform
ance
)012345
No. of import agencies No. of export agenciesNo. of import documents No. of export documents
Num
ber o
f..
Sorted by LPI 2012 quintile
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 9
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 10
Income level alone does not explain economies’ trade logistics performance
Countries by LPI 2012 overall score and GDP/capita
”Logistics Friendly”
”Consistent Performers”
”Partial Performers”
”Logistics Unfriendly”
The boundaries for the four categories indicative only
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 11
TunisiaBrazil
VietnamLithuaniaUkraineGeorgia
KazakhstanBelarusRussia
ArmeniaAzerbaijanUzbekistan
Kyrgyz Rep.MoldovaTajikistanMongolia
MalaysiaThailand
Four main categories of countries identifiedin the LPI Trade logistics reform matrix
With selected countries as examples
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 12
Scores:5 = highest1 = lowest
LPI 2012 scores overall (top) and by each of the six dimensions of selected CIS countries
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 13
= 2007= 2010= 2012
Kazakhstan’s LPI scores overall (top) and by each of the six dimensions 2007-2012
LPI 2007 indicated a strong correlation of national logistics performance and costs
Source: Arvis et al. (2007) Connecting to Compete; Logistics Performance Index, World Bank
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 14
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala
Conclusion on the LPI survey• A useful indicator on how ”easy” or
”difficult” a country’s Trade Logistics is
• Provides also domestic assessments; no. of respondents in a single economy often low
• Scores = Confident Intervals, not fixed points
• The resolution is rather low, but the LPI correlates very well with other datasets
• Robust & pragmatic data; useful in research, teaching, business and policy-making
15
Some thoughts on challenges inTrade & Transport Facilitation work
- Using Central Asia as an example
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 16
The ”Spaghetti Bowl” of Regional Trade agreements involving Central Asian Republics
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 17
As of 31 January 2006
Sour
ce: A
DB
(200
6) In
crea
sing
Gai
ns fr
om T
rade
Thr
ough
Reg
iona
l C
oope
ratio
n in
Tra
de P
olic
y, T
rans
port
, and
Cus
tom
s Tr
ansi
t
Customs Union
The ”Noodle Soup” of Donors and Multilaterals* involving Central Asian Republics
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 18
The World Bank ADB EBRD IsDB
USAID JAICA GTZ DFID
UNECE
UNDP
ESCAP
AllOthers
*) without bilateral activities e.g. from China and Russia
EU
Typical problems with TTF project work in such a challenging environment
• Projects often not completed before new ones start• High turnaround of civil servants and consultants • Ambitious plans to consolidate permits & licenses
into a single database, but no implementation• Customs and other Border Agencies may have
several poorly coordinated electronic systems; there is no lack of money, but that of management
• Too often Trade Facililtation means procurement of fancy new equipment, without the skills or the will to use them in order to facililate the processes
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 19
THANK YOU!
THE 2012 LPI IS AVAILABLE AT:
WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/LPI
UNECE, Geneva, June 18, 2012, Prof. Lauri Ojala 20