Euromonitor International © Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets Ivan Uzunov Senior Research Analyst Euromonitor International
Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG
markets
Ivan UzunovSenior Research Analyst Euromonitor International
Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Outline
� About Euromonitor International
� Global retail market overview
� Focus: Romanian retail market
� Future developments
� Learning Historical Lessons
� Winners and Losers
Go
Go
Go
Go
Go
Go
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
About Euromonitor International
Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Euromonitor International
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� Helping clients make informed decisions
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Our research approach
Consistent methodology for all countries
Concurrent international level
research
Benefits from close client relationships
In-depth research in each country:
published data, opinion, analysis
Multiple sourcing for accuracy, perspective
and insight
Rigorous data validation and cross country checks
Comparable definitions and coverage
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Global retail market overview
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Global Retailing market performance in 2008
Eastern Europe
US$ 663 billion
Growth 18%
Latin AmericaUS$ 786 billionGrowth 16%
Middle East and AfricaUS$ 468 billionGrowth 9%
AustralasiaUS$ 209 billionGrowth -11%
Western EuropeUS$ 3,440 billion Growth 8%
North AmericaUS$ 2,880 billionGrowth 2%
Asia PacificUS$ 2,725 billionGrowth 11%
*Current Retail Value RSP excl Sales Tax 7
Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Global Retailing market performance in 2008
Ukraine
US$43 billion
Growth 24%
PolandUS$97 billionGrowth 4%
Czech RepublicUS$35 billionGrowth 8%
SlovakiaUS$19 billionGrowth 18%
BulgariaUS$11 billion Growth 12%
RomaniaUS$31 billionGrowth 13%
HungaryUS$35 billionGrowth 8%
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Trends 2008: Developed Markets
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Trends 2008: Emerging Markets
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Europe: RSP growth 2000-2008
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Retail Formats Development: % of total grocery retail sales
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Focus: Romanian retail market
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Romanian retail trade in figures
Store based retailing:
� Non store retailing:
Data Type Unit 2008 Growth 07/08
Outlets outlets 137,895.00 0.56%
Selling space '000s sq m 8,238.29 4.85%
Retail RSP ex VAT (curr, local) Million Local Currency 72,867.09 13.73%
Data Type Unit 2008 Growth 07/08
Retail rsp ex VAT (curr, local) Million Local Currency 2,105.11 23.97%
Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Trends 2008: Romania
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Competitive landscape
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Future developments
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Crisis outlook
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Crisis outlook
Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Learning Historical Lessons
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Western European Crisis 2002-2004
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Argentina Crisis 1999 – 2002
0.0
20,000.0
40,000.0
60,000.0
80,000.0
100,000.0
120,000.0
0.0
50,000.0
100,000.0
150,000.0
200,000.0
250,000.0
300,000.0
350,000.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
An
nu
al
dis
po
sab
le
inco
me
Va
lue
of
reta
ilin
g s
ale
s (A
RS
mn
)
Sales in retailing hit by fall in dispoable income
Annual disposable income Retailing
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08% Growth
Sales growth erratic during and following downturn year
Supermarkets Small grocery retailers
Health and beauty specialist retailers Clothing and footwear specialist retailers
Electronics and appliance specialist retailers
Sales in Retailing hit by fall in disposable income
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Winners and Losers
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Past Crises: Winners and Losers
•Hypermarkets•Supermarkets•Discounters•Internet retailing
•Home and garden retailers•Leisure and personal goods retailers•Clothing and footwear retailers•Electronics and appliance retailers•“Traditional” retailers
LoosingWinning
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Winners and Losers of 2008/2009
• Internet retailers
• Electronics and appliance specialist retailers
• Leveraged retailers
• Grocery retailers
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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets
Q&A
Ivan Uzunov
Euromonitor International – Eastern Europe
e-mail: [email protected]
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