October 31, 2018 Kajaria Ceramics Ltd. …scaling high CMP INR 393 Target INR: 504 Result Update – Buy SKP Securities Ltd www.skpsecurities.com Page 1 of 8 Key Share Data Face Value (INR) 1.0 Equity Capital (INR Mn) 158.9 Market Cap (INR mn) 62462.6 52 Week High/Low (INR) 764/316 Avg. Daily Volume (BSE) 65,884 BSE Code 500233 NSE Code KAJARIACER Reuters Code KAJR.NS Bloomberg Code KJC:IN Shareholding Pattern (Sept 30, 2018) 48% 10% 24% 0.43% 18% Promoters DII FII GoI Public & Others Particulars FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Sales 25,496.3 27,106.0 29,595.0 33,571.5 Growth (%) 5.6% 6.3% 9.2% 13.4% EBITDA 4,963.3 4,563.5 4,557.6 5,438.6 PAT 2,528.4 2,349.5 2,396.3 2,968.9 Growth (%) 9.3% -7.1% 2.0% 23.9% EPS (INR) 15.9 14.8 15.1 18.7 BVPS (INR) 73.9 85.0 92.0 100.0 Key Financials (INR Million) Particulars FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E P/E (x) 24.7 26.6 26.1 21.0 P/BVPS (x) 5.3 4.6 4.3 3.9 Mcap/Sales (x) 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.8 13.8 13.9 11.5 ROCE (%) 30.8% 24.8% 22.1% 25.5% ROE (%) 21.5% 17.4% 16.4% 18.7% EBIDTA Mar (%) 19.5% 16.8% 15.4% 16.2% PAT Mar (%) 9.9% 8.7% 8.1% 8.8% Debt - Equity (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Key Financials Ratios Source: Company, SKP Research Price Performance Kajaria vs BSE 500 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Kajaria BSE 500 Company Background Kajaria Ceramics Limited (Kajaria), promoted by Mr. Ashok Kajaria in 1985, is the largest player in India‟s Ceramic Tiles industry with ~10% market share, under “KAJARIA” brand. It has a combined manufacturing capacity of 68 MSM which includes its own manufacturing facilities in UP & Rajasthan and its JV manufacturing partners. It also sells tiles outsourced from Morbi, Gujarat and manufactures sanitaryware and faucets through JV partners, which provides it strategic product extension opportunities to leverage its channel. Recently, it has announced its entry into another building product - plywood; trading to start with. Investment Rationale Topline to grow at a CAGR of ~11.3% over FY18-20E Despite disruptions witnessed during Q2FY19, Kajaria consolidated net sales went up by 8.1% y-o-y to Rs 7,253.1 mn, driven by sanitaryware segment, which grew by 32% y-o-y, at Rs 434.8 mn. Tiles segment witnessed a moderate 7% y-o-y growth to Rs 6,381.6 mn, on the back of volume growth of 11%. Kerala contributes ~12% volume in tiles segment which was adversely affected because of recent floods. However, management has highlighted that conditions in Kerala have started improving from October 2018. Volumes were also impacted due to a nationwide truckers‟ strike in July 2018. Realizations from tiles segment declined by 3% to Rs 349 per sq. m. (JV realisations declined by 10%). During H1FY19 the overall sales grew by 6.4% y-o-y to Rs 13,823.3 mn. The contribution from owned, JVs, and outsourced tiles to the total tiles revenues were ~63%, ~23% and ~14% respectively. Going forward, with Kajaria’s focus on value added products, improving conditions in Kerala, increasing contribution from GVT and PVT segment, coupled with structural shift towards organised players post E-way bill implementation, we expect topline to grow at a CAGR of ~11.3% during FY18-FY20E. Though, slowdown in the real estate industry will continue to add pressure on organized player’s operational performance. EBIDTA Margins to improve going forward: EBIDTA margins during Q2FY19 declined by 320 bps y-o-y to ~15%, mainly on account of increase in gas prices on the back of rising crude prices and weakening Rupee. Power & fuel cost as a percentage of sales increased by 440 bps y-o-y to 22.3%, impacting the company by an additional Rs 200 mn during the quarter (Rs 150 mn in Q1FY19). Management believes gas scenario to remain same in H2FY19 as well. Margins declined by 250 bps to 14.1% in H1FY19. Despite dismal H1FY19 performance, management remains optimistic about demand improvement going forward and expects 14-15% volume growth for H2FY19 on back of launch of new value-added tiles, improvement of conditions in Kerala, and structural shift towards organised players, which are expected to generate traction in the industry. With Kajaria’s focus on superior and value-added products, coupled with price hike taken in July 2018 for ceramic tiles and October 2018 for vitrified tiles, we expect EBITDA margins to improve from 14.9% in H1FY19 to ~16.2% by FY20E. Expanding capacity of PVT & GVT tiles by 5.6 MSM and 5 MSM respectively: To meet the increased demand for lifestyle consumption products like ceramic tiles, especially from aspiring mass affluent, Kajaria is expanding capacity of PVT tiles at existing location at Maluthana, Rajasthan, by 5.6 MSM at a capex of ~Rs 800 mn. Plant is expected to get commissioned by FY19E. With this expansion total capacity of the Company at Malutana will increase to 12.1 MSM, from the current 6.5 MSM. Kajaria has acquired additional 30% stake in „Kajaria Floera Ceramics Pvt Ltd.‟ (KFCPL) in September 2018, making it a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company. KFPCL is setting up a 5 MSM GVT tiles facility, at Andhra Pradesh, with an investment of ~Rs 1 bn. This capacity is expected to get on-stream in FY19E. VALUATION Better economic growth, leaving more disposable income for discretionary life style consumption, rapid urbanisation, changing customer preference towards quality branded products particularly amongst the growing mass affluent, increasing nuclear families and Governments‟ thrust on “Housing for All” coupled with strong brand equity and recall and distribution network, augers well for the Company. It has a de-risked growth strategy with an asset light business model, adopting a joint venture route. Valuations in this industry in general and Kajaria in particular have moderated significantly during CY18. Going forward, we have valued the stock on the basis of P/E - method of relative valuation - of 27x of FY20E earnings, lowering it from 30x (in the previous quarter) due to challenging demand environment. In view of the sharp correction in the share price to Rs 393, after a rally to a 52 week high of Rs 764, we recommend a BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs 504/- (~28% upside) in 15 months. Analyst: Vineet Agrawal Tel No: +91-22-49226006; e-mail: [email protected]
8
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Key Share Data Kajaria Ceramics Ltd....Kajaria has acquired additional 30% stake in „KajariaFloera Ceramics Pvt Ltd.‟(KFCPL) in September 2018, making it a wholly owned subsidiary
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October 31, 2018
Kajaria Ceramics Ltd.
…scaling high
CMP INR 393 Target INR: 504 Result Update – Buy
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpsecurities.com Page 1 of 8
Key Share Data
Face Value (INR) 1.0
Equity Capital (INR Mn) 158.9
Market Cap (INR mn) 62462.6
52 Week High/Low (INR) 764/316
Avg. Daily Volume (BSE) 65,884
BSE Code 500233
NSE Code KAJARIACER
Reuters Code KAJR.NS
Bloomberg Code KJC:IN
Shareholding Pattern (Sept 30, 2018)
48%
10%
24%
0.43%
18%
Promoters
DII
FII
GoI
Public & Others
Particulars FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Net Sales 25,496.3 27,106.0 29,595.0 33,571.5
Growth (%) 5.6% 6.3% 9.2% 13.4%
EBITDA 4,963.3 4,563.5 4,557.6 5,438.6
PAT 2,528.4 2,349.5 2,396.3 2,968.9
Growth (%) 9.3% -7.1% 2.0% 23.9%
EPS (INR) 15.9 14.8 15.1 18.7
BVPS (INR) 73.9 85.0 92.0 100.0
Key Financials (INR Million)
Particulars FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
P/E (x) 24.7 26.6 26.1 21.0
P/BVPS (x) 5.3 4.6 4.3 3.9
Mcap/Sales (x) 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.8 13.8 13.9 11.5
ROCE (%) 30.8% 24.8% 22.1% 25.5%
ROE (%) 21.5% 17.4% 16.4% 18.7%
EBIDTA Mar (%) 19.5% 16.8% 15.4% 16.2%
PAT Mar (%) 9.9% 8.7% 8.1% 8.8%
Debt - Equity (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Key Financials Ratios
Source: Company, SKP Research
Price Performance Kajaria vs BSE 500
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Kajaria BSE 500
Company Background Kajaria Ceramics Limited (Kajaria), promoted by Mr. Ashok Kajaria in 1985, is the largest player in India‟s Ceramic Tiles industry with ~10% market share, under “KAJARIA” brand. It has a combined manufacturing capacity of 68 MSM which includes its own manufacturing facilities in UP & Rajasthan and its JV manufacturing partners. It also sells tiles outsourced from Morbi, Gujarat and manufactures sanitaryware and faucets through JV partners, which provides it strategic product extension opportunities to leverage its channel. Recently, it has announced its entry into another building product - plywood; trading to start with. Investment Rationale Topline to grow at a CAGR of ~11.3% over FY18-20E Despite disruptions witnessed during Q2FY19, Kajaria consolidated net sales went up by
8.1% y-o-y to Rs 7,253.1 mn, driven by sanitaryware segment, which grew by 32% y-o-y, at Rs 434.8 mn. Tiles segment witnessed a moderate 7% y-o-y growth to Rs 6,381.6 mn, on the back of volume growth of 11%. Kerala contributes ~12% volume in tiles segment which was adversely affected because of recent floods. However, management has highlighted that conditions in Kerala have started improving from October 2018. Volumes were also impacted due to a nationwide truckers‟ strike in July 2018. Realizations from tiles segment declined by 3% to Rs 349 per sq. m. (JV realisations declined by 10%). During H1FY19 the overall sales grew by 6.4% y-o-y to Rs 13,823.3 mn.
The contribution from owned, JVs, and outsourced tiles to the total tiles revenues were
~63%, ~23% and ~14% respectively. Going forward, with Kajaria’s focus on value added products, improving conditions
in Kerala, increasing contribution from GVT and PVT segment, coupled with structural shift towards organised players post E-way bill implementation, we expect topline to grow at a CAGR of ~11.3% during FY18-FY20E. Though, slowdown in the real estate industry will continue to add pressure on organized player’s operational performance.
EBIDTA Margins to improve going forward: EBIDTA margins during Q2FY19 declined by 320 bps y-o-y to ~15%, mainly on account of
increase in gas prices on the back of rising crude prices and weakening Rupee. Power & fuel cost as a percentage of sales increased by 440 bps y-o-y to 22.3%, impacting the company by an additional Rs 200 mn during the quarter (Rs 150 mn in Q1FY19). Management believes gas scenario to remain same in H2FY19 as well. Margins declined by 250 bps to 14.1% in H1FY19.
Despite dismal H1FY19 performance, management remains optimistic about demand improvement going forward and expects 14-15% volume growth for H2FY19 on back of launch of new value-added tiles, improvement of conditions in Kerala, and structural shift towards organised players, which are expected to generate traction in the industry. With Kajaria’s focus on superior and value-added products, coupled with price hike taken in July 2018 for ceramic tiles and October 2018 for vitrified tiles, we expect EBITDA margins to improve from 14.9% in H1FY19 to ~16.2% by FY20E.
Expanding capacity of PVT & GVT tiles by 5.6 MSM and 5 MSM respectively: To meet the increased demand for lifestyle consumption products like ceramic tiles,
especially from aspiring mass affluent, Kajaria is expanding capacity of PVT tiles at existing location at Maluthana, Rajasthan, by 5.6 MSM at a capex of ~Rs 800 mn. Plant is expected to get commissioned by FY19E. With this expansion total capacity of the Company at Malutana will increase to 12.1 MSM, from the current 6.5 MSM.
Kajaria has acquired additional 30% stake in „Kajaria Floera Ceramics Pvt Ltd.‟ (KFCPL) in September 2018, making it a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company. KFPCL is setting up a 5 MSM GVT tiles facility, at Andhra Pradesh, with an investment of ~Rs 1 bn. This capacity is expected to get on-stream in FY19E.
VALUATION Better economic growth, leaving more disposable income for discretionary life style
consumption, rapid urbanisation, changing customer preference towards quality branded products particularly amongst the growing mass affluent, increasing nuclear families and Governments‟ thrust on “Housing for All” coupled with strong brand equity and recall and distribution network, augers well for the Company. It has a de-risked growth strategy with an asset light business model, adopting a joint venture route.
Valuations in this industry in general and Kajaria in particular have moderated significantly during CY18. Going forward, we have valued the stock on the basis of P/E - method of relative valuation - of 27x of FY20E earnings, lowering it from 30x (in the previous quarter) due to challenging demand environment. In view of the sharp correction in the share price to Rs 393, after a rally to a 52 week high of Rs 764, we recommend a BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs 504/- (~28% upside) in 15 months.
Long Term Debt (LHS) Short Term Debt (LHS) D/E (RHS)
Source: SKP Research Desk
13
13
0.3
15
83
2.8
18
36
3.1
21
86
8.9
24
13
4.5
25
49
6.3
27
10
6.0
29
59
5.0
33
57
1.5
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Ove
rall
Ne
t R
eve
nu
es
(Rs
mn
)
26.9 27.1 27.6 29.3 32.7 37.4 39.8 41.947.0
2.38.2
14.218.5
24.822.2 18.2
20.022.0
10.610.3
10.311.0
7.6 8.1 13.411.8
12.5
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Tiles - Outsourced Tiles - JV Tiles-Own Mfg
68%59%
53% 50% 50% 55% 56% 57% 58%
6% 18% 27% 31%38% 33%
26% 27% 27%
27% 23% 20% 19%12% 12%
19% 16% 15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Outsourced (%) JV (%) Owned Mfg (%)
20
62
.0
24
46
.5
28
51
.2
35
41
.3
45
74
.6
49
63
.3
45
63
.5
45
57
.6
54
38
.6
15.7%15.5% 15.5%
16.2%
19.0%19.5%
16.8%
15.4%
16.2%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20EEB
IDTA
Mar
gin
(%
)
EB
IDT
A (
Rs
mn
)
80
8.9
10
45
.1
12
42
.2
17
56
.0
23
13
.3
25
28
.4
23
49
.5
23
96
.3
29
68
.9
6.2%6.6% 6.8%
8.0%
9.6% 9.9%
8.7%8.1%
8.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
PA
T M
argi
n (
%)
PA
T (
Rs m
n)
7.9 8.9 9.5 10.8 11.9 13.7 15.3 16.7 18.80.6
2.94.8
6.89.0
8.1 6.67.0
7.9
4.6
4.44.0
4.22.5 2.6 3.8
3.9
4.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Tiles - Outsourced Tiles - JV Tiles-Own Mfg
60% 55% 52% 50% 51% 56% 59% 61% 61%
5% 18% 27% 31%38% 33% 26% 25% 26%
35%27% 22% 19%
11% 11% 15% 14% 14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Outsourced (%) JV (%) Owned Mfg (%)
Kajaria Ceramics Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpsecurities.com Page 5 of 8
KEY CONCERNS
1. Increase in fuel prices: Increase in gas prices, a key input in this energy intensive industry, poses a threat to business in terms of increase in operating cost. To mitigate this, the Company has increased the proportion of value added tiles in the sales mix. Kajaria has also implemented numerous small and critical process improvements, which optimized consumption of gas, eliminating wastage.
.
2. Extended slowdown in real estate sector may dampen business sentiments: Kajaria‟s tiles and sanitaryware segment is highly dependent on real estate sector. Any extension of slowdown to Tier – II and Tier –III cities may dampen business prospects of Kajaria.
3. Forex Risk: The Company faces foreign exchange risks due to its imports and exports. Any adverse currency fluctuation may pose threat to the profitability of Kajaria.
VALUATION
Better economic growth, leaving more disposable income for discretionary life style consumption,
rapid urbanisation, changing customer preference towards quality branded products particularly amongst the growing mass affluent, increasing nuclear families and Governments‟ thrust on “Housingfor All” coupled with strong brand equity and recall and distribution network, augers well for the company. It has de-risked its growth strategy with an asset light business model, adopting a joint venture route.
Valuations in this industry in general and Kajaria in particular have moderated significantly during CY18. Going forward, we have valued the stock on the basis of P/E - method of relative valuation - of 27x of FY20E earnings, lowering it from 30x (in the previous quarter) due to challenging demand environment. In view of the sharp correction in the share price to Rs 393, after a rally to a 52 week high of Rs 764, we recommend a BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs 504/- (~28% upside) in 15 months.
EBIDTA: One year forward looking P/E band
Source: SKP Research
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
Ap
r-0
8
No
v-0
8
Jun
-09
Jan
-10
Au
g-1
0
Ma
r-11
Oct
-11
Ma
y-1
2
De
c-12
Jul-
13
Feb
-14
Sep
-14
Ap
r-1
5
No
v-1
5
Jun
-16
Jan
-17
Au
g-1
7
Ma
r-18
Oct
-18
Adjusted Price 9 18 27 36 45 54
Kajaria Ceramics Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpsecurities.com Page 6 of 8
Source: SKP Research; Price adjusted for stock split Source: BSE, SKP Research; Price adjusted for stock split
Period
(months)Date Rating
Adj Issue
Price
Adj Target
Price
Upside
Potential
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
03
-No
v-1
5
03
-Jan
-16
03
-Mar
-16
03
-May
-16
03
-Ju
l-1
6
03
-Sep
-16
03
-No
v-1
6
03
-Jan
-17
03
-Mar
-17
03
-May
-17
03
-Ju
l-1
7
03
-Sep
-17
03
-No
v-1
7
03
-Jan
-18
03
-Mar
-18
03
-May
-18
03
-Ju
l-1
8
03
-Sep
-18
Adj Close Price Adj Target Price
Note:
The above analysis and data are based on last available prices and not official closing rates. SKP Research is also available on Bloomberg and Thomson First Call.
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Kajaria Ceramics Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpsecurities.com Page 8 of 8
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