Page 1 March 16, 2011 Rainer Münz ERSTE GROUP Key Changes in Migration Trends since 1951 Rainer Münz Erste Group International Organization for Migration (IOM) Inter-Agency Seminar Geneva, March 16, 2011
Page 1 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Key Changes in Migration Trends since 1951Rainer MünzErste Group
International Organization for Migration (IOM)Inter-Agency Seminar
Geneva, March 16, 2011
Page 2 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Global migration
Page 3 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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120 years ago
Page 4 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Northern and Southern
America, The Caribbean
Central Asia/Siberia
Australia, New Zealand
Palestine/IsraelAlgeria
South Africa
Migration from Europe to less developed peripheriesEurope’s answer to rapid population growth70 mn Europeans migrated to overseas’ destinations
European expansion: From settlement to labour migration
Page 5 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Indian South-South Emigration 1870-1940
The Caribbean
Mauritius
Malaysia, Singapore
FijiEast Africa
South Africa
“Reshuffling” of East Indian labor within the British EmpireWhere did Mahatma Gandhi start his political career?
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USA, Canada
South East Asia
Large scale export/import of Chinese labor
Chinese South-South and North Emigration 1850-1920
Page 7 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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60 years ago
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page 8 March 16, 2011R. Münz
China/Taiwan
Palestine/ Israel
India/ Pakistan
Germany/Austria, Poland/Ukraine, etc.
More migrants in the global South than in the North
World migration, 1945-1950
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Today
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From where do people come?
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This is where people come from…Proportional map: Stocks of international migrants by country of origin
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Top 10 emigration countries*Absolute number of emigrants, in millions, 2010
Number of emigrants, in millions
Source: World Bank, UNPD.
11.4
11.1
8.3
6.6
5.4
4.7
4.7
4.3
4.3
11.9
0 4 8 12
Mexico
India
Russian Federation
China
Ukraine
Bangladesh
Pakistan
United Kingdom
Philippines
Turkey
* Only countries with more than 1 million residents
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page 13 March 16, 2011R. Münz
Top 10 emigration countries*Share of emigrants, in % of resident population, 2010
Source: World Bank, UNPD.
Share of emigrants, in % of resident population
38.9%
36.1%
28.2%
26.7%
25.1%
23.6%
21.9%
21.5%
20.8%
45.4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Jamaica
Armenia
Trinidad and Tobago
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Macedonia
Moldova
Portugal
* Only countries with more than 1 million residents
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page 14 March 16, 2011R. Münz
Where do people go?
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page 15 March 16, 2011R. Münz
… and this is where they go toProportional map: Stocks of international migrants by country of destination
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page 16 March 16, 2011R. Münz
Top 10 immigration countries*Number of foreign-born individuals, in millions, 2010
Foreign-born population, in millions
Source: World Bank, UNPD.
42.8
12.3
10.8
7.3
7.2
7.0
6.9
6.7
5.5
5.4
0 15 30 45
United States
Russian Federation
Germany
Saudi Arabia
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Australia
India
* Only countries with more than 1 million residents
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page 17 March 16, 2011R. Münz
Top 10 immigration countries*Share of foreign-born population in % of resident population, 2010
Share of foreign-born population, in % of resident population
Source: World Bank, UNPD.
86.5%
70.0%
68.8%
45.9%
40.7%
40.4%
28.4%
27.8%
23.2%
22.4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Quatar
United Arab Emirates
Kuwait
Jordan
Singapore
Israel
Oman
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
New Zealand
* Only countries with more than 1 million residents
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page 18 March 16, 2011R. Münz
BUT: 214 million migrants are only 3% of the global
US, EU27/EEA/CH, Russia, the Gulf + Australia are home or host to 60% of the world’s migrant population
Magnet societies
population
Page 19 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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European migration
Page 20 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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From emigration to immigration:The main direction changed only recently
Immigration minus emigration (= net migration), 1960-2008
Source: Eurostat.
-1,000,000
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
400 years of net emigration 25 years of net immigration
Page 21 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Net migration in Europe 1950-1960Net migration, annual average rate, per 1.000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0%0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
Source: Eurostat, UNDP.
Page 22 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
Net migration in Europe 1961-1970Net migration, annual average rate, per 1.000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0%0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
Source: Eurostat, UNDP.
Page 23 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
Net migration in Europe 1971-1980Net migration, annual average rate, per 1.000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0%0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
Source: Eurostat, UNDP.
Page 24 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Net migration in Europe 1981-1990Net migration, annual average rate, per 1.000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0%0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
Source: Eurostat, UNDP.
Page 25 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Net migration in Europe 1991-2000Net migration, annual average rate, per 1.000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0%0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
Source: Eurostat, UNDP.
Page 26 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Net migration in Europe 2001-2010Net migration, annual average rate, per 1.000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0%0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
Source: Eurostat, UNDP.
Page 27 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Source: UNDP.
Share of immigrants in EuropeForeign-born population as % of total population, 2010
Page 28 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Today
Page 29 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Europe’s mobility space (Schengen)
Page 30 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
.
über -2 bis 0über 0 bis +2über +2 bis +5
EU 2 citizens
free access for EU 10 and partly for EU 2
EU 10 citizens
transitional regime with exceptions
liberalized regime EEA+CH
European migration regime by citizenship / country of origin and destination country
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page 31 Brussels, Nov.19, 2010Rainer Muenz
13 old + 10 new EU member
states
territory
residency
labor market
citizenship
UK, Ireland
Bulgaria, Romania
Non-EU Schengen/EEA/
EFTA states (+CH)
European mobility and migration
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page 32 Brussels, Nov.19, 2010Rainer Muenz
Theme park: EU mobility and citizenship
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page 33 March 16, 2011R. Münz
Contribution of migration and mobility to Europe’s population
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Natural change in EU-27Births minus deaths, annual average rate, 2004-2008 (per 1.000 inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat 2010.
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Net migration in EU-27Immigration minus emigration, annual average rate, 2004-2008 (per 1.000 inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat 2010.
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Total population increase in EU-27Natural change plus net migration, annual average rate, 2004-2008 (per 1.000 inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat 2010.
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Population increase in EU-27 is mainly due to net migrationContribution of net migration and natural change to total population increase, EU-27, 2008
Source: Eurostat 2010.
Natural increase~ 27,4%
Net migration~ 72,6%
Population increase
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5Net migration
contributes over 70% to total population
increase in EU-27
in m
illio
ns
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page 38 March 16, 2011R. Münz
Immigration brings in a much younger population into EUAge structure of population and immigrants in EU-27
Source: Eurostat 2010.
Median EU-27: 40.6 years
Median immigrants: 28.4 years
Page 39 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Contribution of migration to global development and
wealth
Page 40 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Remittances
Page 41 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Remittances amount to over 400 billion US$ globally Remittances to emerging markets and total
Remittances 1990-2010e (2011f - 2012f), in billions
-
100
200
300
400
500
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
e20
11f
2012
f
Emerging markets World
Source: World Bank, UNPD.
Page 42 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Source: IFAD.
To emerging markets over 300 billion US$ are sent every yearRemittances to emerging markets, 2010
Page 43 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Remittances are important contributions to origin countries …Top 10 remittance-receiving countries, 2009
55.051.0
22.6 21.3
15.911.6 11.1 10.4 10.2 10.0
India
ChinaMex
icoPhilip
pines
France
German
yBanglad
eshBelgium
SpainNigeri
a
Top 10 recipients of migrant remittances, in % of GDP, 2009
Top 10 recipients of migrant remittances, in US$ billions, 2010e
Source: World Bank, UNPD.
35%
28%
25%23% 23% 22% 22%
19%17% 16%
Tajikistan
TongaLes
otho
Moldova
NepalLeb
anon
Samoa
HondurasGuya
naEl S
alvad
or
Page 44 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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… and a considerable economic factor in host countriesTop 10 remittance-sending countries, 2009
48,3
26,0
19,6 18,615,9
13,0 12,610,6 9,9 8,1
United S
tates
Saudi A
rabia
Switzerla
nd
Russian Fed
eration
German
y
Italy
SpainLuxe
mbourgKuwait
Netherlan
ds
Source: World Bank, UNPD.
20%
17%
10%9%
8%7% 7%
5% 5%4%
LuxembourgLeb
anon
OmanMald
ivesKuwaitBahrai
nSau
di Ara
biaGuinea
-Bissa
uGuya
na
Tongo
Top 10 senders of migrant remittances, in US$ billions, 2009
Top 10 senders of migrant remittances, in % of GDP, 2009
Page 45 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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40% of global remittances come from Western and Central EuropeRemittances from W. and C. Europe, in US$ millions, 2006-2008
18,954
14,976
14,656
12,718
10,922
8,431
5,048
4,776
4,541
3,826
3,689
16,273
13,689
15,183
11,287
9,280
7,830
5,048
3,642
4,380
2,625
3,161
14,377
12,454
11,326
8,437
7,561
6,831
4,560
2,620
4,217
2,030
2,698
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Switzerland*
Germany
Spain
Italy
Luxembourg*
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Norway
France
Czech Republic
Belgium
200820072006
Source: IOM, World Migration Report 2010. * Some remittances are related to border residents working in one country during the day but living in a neighbouring country. These workers are not, strictly speaking, considered to be migrants.
in US$ millions
Page 46 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Education
Page 47 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Regional differences in tertiary enrolment rates are wideningGross enrolment ratio in tertiary education, 1999-2008
Source: OECD.
Page 48 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Why do highly skilled consider to work abroad?
Source: Manpower.
Page 49 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Share of tertiary educated people having migrated into a or another OECD-country
<2%<5%<10%<20%>20%
Source: OECD.
Page 50 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Destinations of highly educated migrants from Central and Eastern Europe
RussiaLatvia
MoldovaUkraine
HungaryPoland
RomaniaBelarusCroatia
Czech RepublicLithuania
AlbaniaSlovenia
EstoniaBosnia and Herzegovi
BulgariaSlovakia
Serbia and MontenegrMacedonia
0 20 40 60 80 100
Red: N America Green: EU 15 Blue: other Europe Yellow: Other
in %
Page 51 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Low
MiddleHigh
Low Middle High
Europe America0
5
10
15Non-OECDOECD origin
Source: OECD.
mill
ion
Europe attracts much fewer highly educated migrants than the US
Page 52 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Brain drain – brain gainShare of US-immigrants with and without tertiary education, by origin countries
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Mexico
Jamaica
Cuba
Bahamas
Canada
China
Iran
Nigeria
India
with tertiary graduation without tertiary graduation
Page 53 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Outlook
Page 54 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Why do developed societies need
migrants?
Page 55 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Labour migration as answer to labour force shortages?
Page 56 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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238
214
17035%
52%
84%
120
180
240
300
2008 2025 20500%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Labor force Age group 65+/labor force
Development of labour force and support ratio – without migrationZero migration, constant labour force participation rate
Source: Own calculations based on Europop 2008.
Page 57 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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238229
207
35%
49%
72%
120
180
240
300
2008 2025 20500%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Labor force Age group 65+/labor force
Development of labour force and support ratio – + 50mn migrantsMigration, constant labour force participation rate
Source: Own calculations based on Europop 2008
Page 58 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Guest worker programs in 1960s and 1970s were a first try
Page 59 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Permanent immigrants do not help to solve the ageing problem …
Page 60 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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AgingPopulation by age groups, 1950, 2000 and 2050
Source: UN Population Division, The 2008 Revision Population Database.
Page 61 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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… but migration can mitigate a mismatch between supply and demand for labour
Page 62 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Agriculture, especially harvesting
Page 63 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Health care, nursing
Page 64 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Tourism, hospitality, catering
Page 65 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Construction
Page 66 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Highly skilled
Page 67 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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This could partly be achieved by a higher
labour force participation rate
Page 68 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Compared to US and JP, EU has a low labour force participation rateLabour force participation rate, 1975-2007
Page 69 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Only few countries show labour force participation rates of above 65%Labour force participation rate of age group 15-64, in %, 2007
Source: Eurostat, National Statistical Offices.
under 50
50 to 55
55 to 60
60 to 65
65 and more
no data
Page 70 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Notably youth, women and elderly have low participation ratesLabour force participation rate by age and sex, 2009
Page 71 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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an
The elderly is employed in CH and some Scandinavian countries mostEmployment rate(1) of the elderly (55-64), 2008
Source: Eurostat 2008.(1) … Employment rates represent employed persons as a percentage of the same age population.
(2) … Targets set by the European Council in Lisbon (2000) and Stockholm (2001), to be achieved by 2010.
Page 72 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Modern alternative: Temporary and
circular migration
Page 73 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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Temporary and circular migration should be of benefit for all parties
Source country
Labour migrants
Host country
Remittances
No brain drain
New ideas
Knowledge Skills New businesses
Flexibility
Additional labour force
Vacancies’ fill
Page 74 March 16, 2011Rainer Münz
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However: Europe’s ageing societies cannot fix their problems just by
recruiting temporary migrants