Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering How recent emission trends & the latest science change the debate
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Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &
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Kevin AndersonResearch director
Tyndall Centre University of Manchester
November 2008
Reframing Climate Change:
Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows
Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering
How recent emission trends & the latest science change the debate
Talk outline
1) What is dangerous climate change?
2) Reframing the debate - cumulative emissions
3) Global greenhouse gas emission pathways
4) UK greenhouse gas emission pathways
What is dangerous climate change?
UK & EU define this as 2C
What are the ‘correct’ emission-reduction targets for
2C ? UK, EU & Global - long term reduction targets
- UK’s 60% reduction in CO2 by 2050- EU 60%-80% reduction in CO2 e by 2050- Bali 50% global reduction in CO2e by 2050
But CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years
Hence, today’s emissions add to yesterdays & will be added to by tomorrows
So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading
the final % reduction in carbon has little
relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change
(e.g. 2C)
Put bluntly …
What is important are the cumulative emissions of carbon & other
greenhouse gases (i.e. the carbon budget)
How do global temperatureslink to
global and national carbon budgets & from there to
emission-reduction pathways?
Temperature threshold
GHG concentration
Global cumulative emission budget
National cumulative emission budget
Apportionment regime
science/modelling
science/modelling
Global emission pathway
National emission pathway
2000-2008emissions
+short-termprojections
Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
available carbon budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issi
on
s
available carbon budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issi
on
sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
Plot recent emissions
available carbon budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issi
on
sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
Em
issi
on
s alr
ead
y
rele
ase
d
available carbon budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issi
on
sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
Em
issi
on
s alr
ead
y
rele
ase
d
We can project:- Short-term emissions to peak year/s
1-person living in 3 bedroom housespatio heaters10 halogen bulbs lighting the kitchen3 tonne 4WD car to transport 70kg flesh 3milesdriving children to school business tycoons with private jetsacademics flying to climate change conferencesmusicians flying to climate change concerts celebrating the excesses of celebrities‘right’ to fly & drive when & to wherever we want year-round strawberrieshen parties in Prague & birthdays in Barcelonadouble door refrigerators & home cinemasecond homes, 2 cars & 3 TVs & all with 9 billion people living on our planet!
EndReframing Climate Change:
Kevin Anderson & Alice BowsTyndall Centre
University of Manchester
How recent emission trends & the latest science change the debate