Kenji Okazaki, Professor Graduate School of Global ... · PDF filePresentation by Kenji OKAZAKI ... 1 Haiti Earthquake 2010 over 300,000 ... Cyclone Damages in Bangladesh

Presentation by Kenji OKAZAKIfrom the 16th Japan‐EU Conference (25/11/2013)

for other presentations seehttp://www.eu‐japan.eu/16th‐japan‐eu‐conference

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Kenji Okazaki, ProfessorGraduate School of Global

Environmental StudiesKyoto University, Japan

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Nation Disaster Year Death

1 Indonesia, others Eq/tsunami 2004 over 300,000

3 Bangladesh Cyclone/flood 1991 140,000

4 Myanmar Cyclone/flood 2008 over 130,000

1 Haiti Earthquake 2010 over 300,000

5 China Earthquake 2008 90,000

6 Pakistan Earthquake 2005 over 80,000

7 Iran Earthquake 1990 35,000

8 Venezuela Flood 1999 30,000

9 Iran Earthquake 2003 27,000

10 Armenia Earthquake 1988 25,000

10 Worst Disasters (fatalities) in the past 3 decades

• Deadly disasters occur in developing countries (10/10)• Deadly disasters occur mostly in Asia (7/10 )• Deadly disasters are mostly caused by earthquakes (7/10 )• Unprecedented disasters have been increasing (6 in 2000’s)



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What are the most important lessons from the past disasters?

Earthquakes: Warning is not possible

Hundreds of thousands people would not be killed if they would have constructed safe houses and would have retrofitted their vulnerable houses

Tsunamis, Floods, and Cyclones: Warning is possible

Hundreds of thousands people would not be killed if they would have evacuated promptly

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Vulnerable houses to earthquakes in the world

Adobe Brick

Stone Timber

• Most of houses are non-engineered, being vulnerable to earthquakes.• Most of deaths in earthquakes are caused by collapse of their own

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1955 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster in Japan

Approx. 90 % of the victims (about 5,000) were killed by their own houses, mostly old timber houses.

Vulnerable houses magnified the scale of disaster.Collapsed houses blocked roads, and hampered evacuation, relief, and fire fighting activities, and spread fires

After 1995 Earthquake, The Act to promote retrofitting was enacted in 1995. Most of Japanese citizens are aware that vulnerable houses

would collapse and kill them in earthquakes. Techniques for retrofitting are affordable. Financial assistance for seismic diagnosis and retrofitting is

available.

Yet, people have many reasons not to retrofit their vulnerable houses.

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2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami

No warning, no evacuation

Over 300,000 people were killed mostly by tsunami waves

If they would have evacuated promptly, they would no have been killed.

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Cyclone Damages in Bangladesh

Casualties have been drastically decreasing- 1970 Cyclone >> 300,000-500,000 deaths- 1991 Cyclone >> 140,000 deaths- 2007 Cyclone >> 4,200 deaths

- Effective and practical warning system- Construction of cyclone shelters

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No. of sheltersDeaths

Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster, 11 March, 2011

Onagawa, Miyagi

Kamaishi, Iwate

Rikuzen-takata (Iwate)

Approx. 19,000 were killed or missing mostly by Tsunami caused by the M9.0 Earthquake.

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Many people did not evacuate promptly although they received warnings

People in this region knew the tsunami would strike after a strong earthquake from the history.

Repeated Tsunamis – Meiji Sanriku Tsunami (1896), Showa Sanriku Tsunami (1933), Chile Earthquake Tsunami (1960), etc.

Tsunami warning was issued 3 minutes after the earthquake. People had approx. half an hour or more before the tsunami stroke.

Most municipalities instructed people to evacuate promptly.

Yet, many people were reluctant to evacuate promptly. Why?

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Why did not people evacuate immediately after the tsunami warning?

Underestimated tsunami because of their past experiences

Excessive trust in infrastructure (high sea walls)

Looking for their children/elderly people

Taking care of the disabled or handicapped

Looking for money, valuables, bank notes, etc.

Tried to evacuate by cars and were stuck

Some people did not receive the warning

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Motivation for safetyIndividual decision making is crucial for disaster reduction

Few house owners invest for improvement of houses- Unless every house owner makes decision to invest in improvement of safety of the house, earthquake loss cannot be reduced.

Many people do not evacuate immediately after warning- Unless every person makes decision to evacuate immediately, the warning system would not be effective.

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People are not easily motivated for actions to avoid disaster risk

- Normalcy bias and heuristicsRisk perception is biased and not rational

- Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky). People are risk-seekers when the choice involves loss. (People are risk-averse when the choice involves interest.)

- Future uncertain loss is psychologically much discounted.

- Investment for safety would be waste if any disaster would not occur within either the life of the house or the investor.

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How can we convince people to take actions before a super disaster hits

Policy development and institutionalization for safer communities

Education, training, and awareness raising

Community-based disaster management

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Policies to promote retrofitting of existing vulnerable buildings in Japan

Amendment of Building Standard Law

Acts to improve building safety

Promotion of technical development

Financial assistance for retrofitting

Earthquake insurance

Training and education

Information Dissemination, development of “Simplified Seismic Diagnosis,” etc.

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Simplified seismic diagnosis for houses

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Financial assistance for retrofitting of vulnerable buildings

Seismic evaluation of houses2/3 of the cost is subsidized by the national & local government

Seismic retrofitting of houses - 23% or more of the cost is subsidized jointly by the

national and local governments- Low interest rate for the loan - Deduction (10% of the cost) from Income Tax - Reduction (1/2 for three years) of Property Tax

Yet, only few people have retrofitted their house in Japan

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Current vicious cycle for unsafer communities

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Support for recovery locally, nationally,

internationally

No incentive for safer communities

Increase of vulnerable communities

Large casualty/damage by earthquakes/floods

Paradigm shift is necessary

Proposed cycle for safer communities

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Support for safer communities

locally, nationally, internationally

Strong incentives for safer communities

Increase of safer communities

Decrease of victims and recovery cost



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Roles of international societies for disaster reduction

Local governments should motivate people for safer communities proactively

National governments should motivate the local governments for safer communities proactively

International societies (like EU-Japan) should motivate the national governments proactively, i.e. less assistance for reactive policies, and more assistance for proactive policy development.

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Thank you !

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Kenji OkazakiProfessorGraduate School of Global Environmental StudiesKyoto University, JapanE-mail: [email protected]

Kenji Okazaki, Professor Graduate School of Global ... · PDF filePresentation by Kenji OKAZAKI ... 1 Haiti Earthquake 2010 over 300,000 ... Cyclone Damages in Bangladesh

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